Tag: playoffs

by Mike Pavlichko

Cutoff Weekend Group 5 Playoff Update: Bridgewater-Raritan could earn BCC’s only overall No. 1 seed; Plainfield, Rahway face “play-in” scenarios Friday night

It’s Cutoff Weekend in New Jersey high school football, and we’re taking a look at the playoff scenarios for every Big Central team in contention.

This week, Strength Index values are locked in, and out-of-state opponent SI values also have been updated by Gridiron New Jersey, which does all the official calculations of the NJ UPR formula for the NJSIAA. And we’ve double- and triple-checked our own standings to make sure they match with Gridiron’s.

We’ll have another update to the standings after Friday night’s games – yes, there are Thursday games, but none in the BCC, and we’ll only update if there are significant changes.

And, of course, Central Jersey Sports Radio will have its annual “Playoff Projection Show,” airing LIVE on Saturday at 6 pm. Mike Pavlichko hosts with analyst Marcus Borden, and they’ll run through all the projected brackets. Plus, you’ll hear from some of the league’s coaches as well.

Here’s our breakdown of the Group 5 supersections. We won’t be getting into how the brackets look just yet, but we’ll do that with our update after Friday night’s Week 8 action. Click the supersection header to see the official standings on Gridiron New Jersey.

NORTH GROUP 5

  • Bridgewater-Raritan: The Panthers (6-2) have a shot at the overall No. 1 seed here, but it won’t be easy. They would have to beat Phillipsburg (6-1) on the road Friday night and have West Orange (currently No. 1, 6-2) lose at 5-3 Bloomfield the same night. But even a Bridgewater loss might keep them there. Piscataway (7-2) visits Monroe (1-7) and the Chiefs just can’t gain enough from that game to put them in the fold for a top seed. Even Elizabeth at four overall can’t get much higher. So we think the Panthers are locked in as the top-seed in North 2, Group 5, it’s just a matter of whether they’ll edge out West Orange for the top-seed overall, which would mean they could host a group semifinal, if they got that far. Incidentally, their six wins are the most the Panthers have had since 2021 under Scott Bray, and a seventh win would be their best total since finishing 2017 9-3, with a trip to the North 2, Group 5 finals, the last of three straight they made, falling to undefeated Westfield all three times.
  • Piscataway: Even with losses by Bridgewater-Raritan and West Orange, we think the Chiefs (6-2) are maxed out at No. 3, so they should be the two-seed in North 2, Group 5. A loss could drop them to fourth, maybe lower depending how Passaic Tech and Union City do. Either way, they should start out at home, playing on Saturdays as they always do.

  • Elizabeth: If things break right for the Minutemen (4-4), a win over Union (1-7) coupled with losses by West Orange, Bridgewater-Raritan and Piscataway could get Elizabeth as high as three overall, which would earn them a two-seed in the North 2, Group 4 section, with the Panthers first and Piscataway third, then Linden fourth, making it an all-Big Central top four there. A loss would be tragic, potential dropping them to around eight overall, and on the road for a first-round playoff game. That’s quite the swing. But if the Minutemen fancy themselves a playoff team, they should handle the Farmers.
  • Linden: Sitting at 12, the Tigers (3-5) have Plainfield (also 3-5) at home Friday. Just on its own, that keeps them at 12. A win could move them to around ninth overall, while a loss could drop them to 14, but they should be solidly win. Behind them are three teams that have no business making the playoffs, including 5-2 Morristown, 1-7 Montclair and 1-7 Union. And those last two won’t even qualify if they don’t get to two wins (and it’s unlikely they will).
  • Plainfield: The Cardinals get in with a win over Linden, which would bump them all the way up to 12, not counting any other scores. But still, with Bloomfield at 13 and Linden at 14 – and we already counted a loss for them, there’s really no one who could catch them. With a loss? Well, they could back into the playoffs, thanks to those one-win teams. In that scenario, they would need Columbia (3-5) to lose to Union City (4-3), and for Union and Montclair to lose – leaving them each with one-win and ineligible – and they would get in. We can’t remember another scenario since the advent of the NJ UPR system in 2018 where a team got in from 18 because of two teams that didn’t meet the win requirement, but that’s what would happen here.
  • Union: A win over Elizabeth (5-4) should get them in, moving them to around the 12th position in the field of 16. But at 1-7, they must win that game. Two wins is the NJSIAA minimum to qualify.

SOUTH GROUP 5

  • Sayreville: We don’t think the Bombers have a path to a No. 1 seed, thanks in part to last week’s loss to Montgomery. They come in at 7-1, with a 3.6 UPR. Ahead of them is Atlantic City (7-1, 2nd) and Washington Twp. (8-0, 1st). Assuming Sayreville beats St. Thomas Aquinas (5-3), they can’t catch Washington Twp., even if they were to lose. And they’d be 0.2 UPR points behind Atlantic City. They’d need a loss by the Vikings, but since they play on Thanksgiving and have already played eight games, they’re idle this week. Now, the Trojans are a multiplier, but as of last year, teams only get bonus points if they lose; if they beat a multiplier, they get the normal points on the OSI side. That said, with a loss, they fall to four without any other games being considered, but it’s not the worst thing in the world. With Southern also above them, all three teams are from the south, Washington Twp. would get the top seed in Central 5, and Sayreville would be the two there regardless. But giving wins to Old Bridge and Rancocas Valley actually bumps them back up to third, mainly because Rancocas has Lenape (0-8) this weekend, and even a win would drop them and prop up the Bombers.
  • Old Bridge: The Knights are going to benefit from that Rancocas Valley drop, too, should they beat a solid (6-2) Colonia team at home Friday night. A loss and they drop to seven, and probably lock them in there. Why? Even if teams behind them win, there’s a gap from Old Bridge in fourth in the Central 5 section to Hillsborough fifth with five teams from the South in between the overall UPR standings. And the Raiders can’t catch them.
  • Hillsborough: Coming in at No. 13, the Raiders (3-5) have been hot and cold this season. At 1-4, they reeled off a couple of back-to-back wins, but fell off the wagon last week when Piscataway beat them at Noonan Field. A win Friday at Hunterdon Central (4-4) could get them around 11, while a loss could drop them as low as 15.
  • Hunterdon Central: The Red Devils look like they need to beat the Raiders to get in. That would put them at 15, with Trenton, Howell and Bridgeton behind them. They still might need some help from them. If all three win, Central is out. But Central can get in as long as two of the three teams lose. We think Franklin is out regardless. The fly in the ointment could be if Jackson (2-6) wins at Brick Memorial (6-2), but we think that’s unlikely. So here are the scenarios for the Red Devils, needing two of three losses by those three behind them. If Howell and Bridgeton lose, Central gets in at 15 and Hillsborough holds at 12. If Bridgeton and Trenton lose, Hillsborough is at 15, Central at 16, but they would jump the Raiders since they just beat them. If Howell and Trenton lose, Central gets in at 16, Hillsborough is at 12 again. Play-in games and scoreboard watching are what makes Cutoff Weekend exciting!

by Mike Pavlichko

Gameday with Marcus Borden: Cutoff Weekend Edition!

Cutoff Weekend is here! We’re going to find out this weekend who gets top seeds, home games, who gets in, who’s left out, and all the matchups. And that means it’s time to talk about it all with Central Jersey Sports Radio analyst Marcus Borden!

Mike and Marcus look back at the week gone by, including St. Joseph-Metuchen’s win St. Thomas Aquinas, as well as unbeatens Woodbridge and Sayreville getting knocked off.

Mike and Marcus then go through all the public school playoff sections, breaking down teams’ chances and analyzing the key games in each.

Click below to listen to the Cutoff Weekend edition of “Gameday with Marcus Borden”:

by Mike Pavlichko

Cutoff Weekend Group 4 Playoff Update: Phillipsburg in play for a top-seed in North 2 section packed with Big Central squads; Rahway and Watchung Hills face “play-in” games

It’s Cutoff Weekend in New Jersey high school football, and we’re taking a look at the playoff scenarios for every Big Central team in contention.

This week, Strength Index values are locked in, and out-of-state opponent SI values also have been updated by Gridiron New Jersey, which does all the official calculations of the NJ UPR formula for the NJSIAA. And we’ve double- and triple-checked our own standings to make sure they match with Gridiron’s.

We’ll have another update to the standings after Friday night’s games – yes, there are Thursday games, but none in the BCC, and we’ll only update if there are significant changes.

And, of course, Central Jersey Sports Radio will have its annual “Playoff Projection Show,” airing LIVE on Saturday at 6 pm. Mike Pavlichko hosts with analyst Marcus Borden, and they’ll run through all the projected brackets. Plus, you’ll hear from some of the league’s coaches as well.

Here’s our breakdown of the Group 4 supersections. We won’t be getting into how the brackets look just yet, but we’ll do that with our update after Friday night’s Week 8 action. Click the supersection header to see the official standings on Gridiron New Jersey.

NORTH GROUP 4

This is a very difficult supersection to nail down since there are a ton of Big Central teams here, just about every other team from three on down, with Phillipsburg there, Montgomery fifth, Woodbridge at seven, Ridge at nine, and Colonia 11th, with Westfield at 15 and Rahway at 16 heading into Cutoff Weekend. And the teams are tightly packed, too. There are so many ways this can go, with each team dependent on several others above and below them. We could very well end up with six or seven teams from the Big Central in North 2, Group 4, once it all shakes out by geography, so there’s a very good chance we get sectional champion here from the BCC.

  • Phillipsburg: Phillipsburg (6-1) has a tough one Friday night at Maloney as Bridgewater-Raritan (6-2) comes in, with Declan Kurdyla now playing his third game back at QB after suffering an injury earlier this season against Hunterdon Central. A win could get them the top seed if No. 2 Mount Olive loses, even if No. 1 Northern Highlands wins. But, they would not get it the other way around, with a win, a Highlands loss and a Mount Olive win. They need help to get there. And if both those teams above them lose, they could end up No. 1 overall with some other help. A loss, and the Stateliners dip to four, and could fall even further back if Montgomery wins at Rahway.
  • Montgomery: The Cougars (6-2) visit Rahway (5-3) in the “Big Central Game of the Week” presented by Bellamy & Son Paving Friday night at 7, with major playoff implications for both. If the Montgomery can win, and they get help from above, like losses from Phillipsburg and Ramapo, they can get as high as third overall, which would give them a two-seed in North 2, Group 4, guaranteeing home games for at least the first two rounds, into the semifinals. A loss could drop them to eight or lower overall, unless they get some help from the teams around them.
  • Woodbridge: With a win by the Barrons (7-1) at St. Joseph-Metuchen (7-0), Woodbridge could vault as high as fourth, but probably not any higher. But the Falcons are a multiplier, which is worth 70 percent of the SI value instead of 50 percent. That means a loss – on its own – keeps them at seven. We think, at the very least, Woodbridge is a two- or three-seed in North 2, Group 4.
  • Ridge: The Red Devils (5-2) are at Westfield (3-5) Saturday, and with the Blue Devils being a middle-of-the road team in terms of power points and SI, a win or loss doesn’t bump Ridge too far up or down. They should stay in the middle of the pack of 16 here, and likely begin the playoffs on the road; they’d have to pass Montgomery, but as we talked about, even a loss doesn’t kill the Cougars too much, so Ridge is a bit limited in where it can move. Should be a road team in the first round.
  • Colonia: The Patriots (6-2) should be in the playoffs regardless of what they do at Old Bridge (7-1) Friday night, since the Knights are a strong team SI-wise, and still give Colonia six power points even for a loss (their seventh win came in their eighth game, and only the first seven count for residuals). A win would be gargantuan, potentially moving them up to nine overall, and maybe higher if some things break their particular way, and they could even jump Ridge. With a loss, depending on the teams behind them, they likely won’t drop more than a spot or two, but even that might not move them in the North 2, Group 4 section.
  • Westfield: A loss to Ridge likely doesn’t hurt the Blue Devils too much, since the Red Devils are 5-2 and highly-rated in terms of SI. A win could pull them up to 12. We think they’re likely a seven seed – definitely a bottom four, first-round road team – in North 2 Group 4 unless some other games affect it.
  • Rahway: In the game we have on the air Friday night, the Indians (5-3) host Montgomery (6-2), and a win on its own gets them all the way up to 11th place. We don’t think there’s a way enough teams could pass them to knock them out, so we’ll call this a “play-in” for Rahway. But that also means if they lose, they’re probably out. They’d fall to 20 regardless of any other games, and would probably need a lot of help. It;s not impossible, they’d just need everything to break right ahead of them.
  • JFK: We tried a lot of numbers, but we think even if the Mustangs (6-2) beat South Plainfield (4-4) they can only get to 17 with a lot of help. It’s possible there’s a way, and it might be clearer after Friday night.
  • Watchung Hills: Don’t count out the Warriors (3-5), even though they start the weekend in 22nd place. Somerville is one of the top 35 SI teams in the state and has seven wins, so it’s a big jackpot if Watchung Hills can come up with a win. That may be easier said than done, but a victory could get them as high as 13 if things break right. We’re not sure if it’s a lock that they get in with a win, as they could still finish around 15 or 16, and if they finish 16 to Rahway’s 17, the Indians have the tiebreaker on head-to-head. But that’s if everything breaks wrong. Good chance they’re in with a win

by Mike Pavlichko

Cutoff Weekend Group 3 Playoff Update: Somerville still has a shot at a top seed, Cranford’s in, Carteret still has a shot

It’s Cutoff Weekend in New Jersey high school football, and we’re taking a look at the playoff scenarios for every Big Central team in contention.

This week, Strength Index values are locked in, and out-of-state opponent SI values also have been updated by Gridiron New Jersey, which does all the official calculations of the NJ UPR formula for the NJSIAA. And we’ve double- and triple-checked our own standings to make sure they match with Gridiron’s.

We’ll have another update to the standings after Friday night’s games – yes, there are Thursday games, but none in the BCC, and we’ll only update if there are significant changes.

And, of course, Central Jersey Sports Radio will have its annual “Playoff Projection Show,” airing LIVE on Saturday at 6 pm. Mike Pavlichko hosts with analyst Marcus Borden, and they’ll run through all the projected brackets. Plus, you’ll hear from some of the league’s coaches as well.

Here’s our breakdown of the Group 3 supersections. We won’t be getting into how the brackets look just yet, but we’ll do that with our update after Friday night’s Week 8 action. Click the supersection header to see the official standings on Gridiron New Jersey.

NORTH GROUP 3

  • Cranford: This one is fairly easy. The Cougars (4-4) sit in 14th place, and we think they stay around there. A win over Hillside (2-5) doesn’t move the needle, but it doesn’t hurt them much either. With Weequahic out of the picture, the Cougars are a 5-seed in North 2, Group 4. But they would be 14 or so in UPR (14.6 or so), while the next team above them in fourth, Roxbury, is in seventh, with a 7.4 UPR at the moment. There’s no way they catch them, so we’re not even going to bother with where they stand in the top 16; we think it’s an extremely high probability that Cranford ends up the five-seed regardless of what they do against the Comets.
  • Carteret: The Ramblers (3-4) visit Bernards (8-0) this Friday night. That’s going to be a tough one, especially with banged up QB Nolan Walsh back in the lineup from injury. (He played the second half last week against Linden.) A loss and they’re definitely out. A win and they could get to 17, which would be good enough since Weequahic (9th) is ineligible due to being over the DQ limit. And with a loss from Mendham (4-4) at Randolph (1-7) – which isn’t likely – or a Warren Hills loss at Hackettstown (both are 4-4), they could even get to 15. We think a win gets the Ramblers in, but it won’t be easy.
  • South Plainfield: Even if the Tigers (4-4) beat JFK (6-2), they don’t appear to have a path to the top 17. If everyone around them loses, North Plainfield would jump them, but even they don’t seem to be able to get in with any help.

SOUTH GROUP 3

  • Somerville: The Pioneers (7-1, 3.6 UPR) would have to make up one UPR point to get into a tie with second-place Cedar Creek (7-1, 2.6 UPR). Holmdel (5-2) is in between at third (3.2 UPR) and Burlington Twp. is No. 1 (1 UPR). A Somerville win at Watchung Hills (3-5) could get them as high as second if Cedar Creek and both Holmdel lose. If either wins, the winner gets second and the loser goes to fourth. All we can tell you is, even with a loss, Somerville at least gets one more game back at Brooks Field.

by Mike Pavlichko

Cutoff Weekend Group 2 Playoff Update: Bernards a longshot for a top seed, Spotswood’s in trouble (at 8-1!), while Dayton and Voorhees face play-in type games

It’s Cutoff Weekend in New Jersey high school football, and we’re taking a look at the playoff scenarios for every Big Central team in contention.

This week, Strength Index values are locked in, and out-of-state opponent SI values also have been updated by Gridiron New Jersey, which does all the official calculations of the NJ UPR formula for the NJSIAA. And we’ve double- and triple-checked our own standings to make sure they match with Gridiron’s.

We’ll have another update to the standings after Friday night’s games – yes, there are Thursday games, but none in the BCC, and we’ll only update if there are significant changes.

And, of course, Central Jersey Sports Radio will have its annual “Playoff Projection Show,” airing LIVE on Saturday at 6 pm. Mike Pavlichko hosts with analyst Marcus Borden, and they’ll run through all the projected brackets. Plus, you’ll hear from some of the league’s coaches as well.

Here’s our breakdown of the Group 2 supersections. We won’t be getting into how the brackets look just yet, but we’ll do that with our update after Friday night’s Week 8 action. Click the supersection header to see the official standings on Gridiron New Jersey.

NORTH GROUP 2

  • Bernards: Upon closer inspection, it looks like the Mountaineers (8-0) are most likely going to get squeezed out of a first round playoff game, unless they get a lot of help. Coming in with a 4.2 UPR, it’s not a lot to get to the two teams tied for second at 2.8, Shabazz and Rutherford. But Friday night they play Carteret, and the Ramblers aren’t bad at all; their SI is 56.54 and they’re worth 15 power points. But Bernards’ OSI is a 56.81, and its power point average is 16.13, so it’s just not enough to move the needle either way very significantly. In that scenario, a win on its own keeps them tied for fourth (and with no common opponents and no head-to-head, Hanover Park would get the tiebreaker for now). Now, if they can get some help, that would be good. It looks like if Bernards wins, and Rutherford, Shabazz and Hanover Park all lose – regardless of what Westwood does – Bernards may be able to get the two-seed overall, and a top-seed in North 2, Group 2. But it’s unlikely all three lose. A loss by Bernards, and they could drop to six or perhaps a bit lower.
  • Dayton: The Bulldogs (6-2) get Brearley Saturday, worth 18 power points and with a 49.52 SI value. Both are higher than their current averages (11.43 power points, 40.03 OSI) so a win on their own bumps them up to 15 from their current seat in the 16th position. That doesn’t seem like a lot, but giving wins to the five teams behind them in that scenario – Becton, Vernon, Lyndhurst, Mahwah and Cresskill – still keeps them in at 15; Vernon would jump them, but the others wouldn’t be able to make up enough ground. Should they lose, they’re out. So, we think this is a play-in game for Dayton.

SOUTH GROUP 2

  • A.L. Johnson: The Crusaders (7-1) play Perth Amboy (1-7) Friday, so even a win on its own would drop them from eighth place to a tie for ninth with Gloucester City. That wouldn’t drop them in their section, necessarily, however, because Gloucester City will be in South Jersey Group 2, and Johnson will be in Central Jersey Group 2 when split by geography. Even a win by Bordentown behind them would keep them there, as the Scotties have Pemberton (1-6) on the schedule Friday. A loss, however, could drop them to 11 or lower. Johnson certainly is in the playoffs, but we think either way, they likely play on the road, and they most likely scenario is a 5th seed in CJ2.
  • Voorhees: The Vikings (7-1) are having a fantastic season, but only in 16th coming into Cutoff Weekend. Their schedule is not as bad as some of the smaller-school six- and seven-win teams, but this section is a brutal one. Only one team above them – Point Pleasant Boro at 3-4 – has fewer than four wins. Now, we think that’s mainly the way it should be, but not every supersection is like this. North 5 for example has six of the last seven teams in the top 16 with three wins or fewer, including Montclair at 16 with a 1-7 record. (They would have to reach two wins to be eligible, but something is wrong with a system that allows that to even happen in the first place.) In any event, Voorhees will be hurt by having North Hunterdon (1-7) this weekend in the annual Milk Can Game, a rivalry that dates back to 1976, in which the Lions have a wide advantage. A win alone won’t move them up, though they could edge up if Willingboro and Overbrook – currently ahead of them – were to lose. A loss would drop them to 17, and even losses by Overrook Camden and Willingboro won’t help. Note that Camden Eastside – also ahead of them – is idle this week. It’s possible some quirk would get them in, but the best path is a win over North Hunterdon.
  • Spotswood: Seems like we have this discussion every year with the Chargers. They’re 7-1, their lone loss is to Dayton, and they are on the outside looking in at 18. Let’s just get the easy part out of the way: A loss to 5-2 Roselle Park makes them toast. Now, can they find a way in? The big thing is Roselle Park is 5-2, and they’re a big prize for the Chargers: a 56.10 SI team, where their average is currently 39.45, and worth 21 power points, almost double their current average. But guess what? It still doesn’t move them from 18th! It’s a sign the system is broken and rewards teams more for losses to good teams than wins. (We’ll have more on this Saturday night, during our live projection show, you can be sure of that.) So, is there a path in? We’re going to assume a Voorhees win, which isn’t a big stretch. This one we’re going to dive deep on. What you have to look at is where you can gain in each metric, power points and OSI. The five teams ahead of Spotswood in power points (Spotswood is 13 there currently – by the way, we’ve advocated for ditching power points, going to solely OSI, and making losses less valuable (like 30 or 40 percent) – are Sterling, Collingswood, Voorhees, Manasquan and Lower Cape May. Giving all but Voorhees a loss, the Chargers are still at 17. Now, let’s try OSI, where Spotswood is 21st. The teams ahead of them are Delaware Valley, Governor Livingston, Raritan, Voorhees and Lower Cape May. We already got those last two, and Governor Livingston should beat winless New Brunswick (which hasn’t scored more than eight points in a game since 2022, a streak of 28 games). So we’ll be realistic, and give losses to Del Val and Raritan, and they still don’t get in. Maybe there’s a quirk we haven’t found yet – like a loss by Willingboro -but it looks pretty bleak for Spotswood, even with a win. Will it change anything? Probably not, but it should.

by Mike Pavlichko

Cutoff Weekend Group 1 Playoff Update: New Providence still has good shot at No. 1 seed, but may need help; can Brearley make it with a win?

It’s Cutoff Weekend in New Jersey high school football, and we’re taking a look at the playoff scenarios for every Big Central team in contention.

This week, Strength Index values are locked in, and out-of-state opponent SI values also have been updated by Gridiron New Jersey, which does all the official calculations of the NJ UPR formula for the NJSIAA. And we’ve double- and triple-checked our own standings to make sure they match with Gridiron’s.

We’ll have another update to the standings after Friday night’s games – yes, there are Thursday games, but none in the BCC, and we’ll only update if there are significant changes.

And, of course, Central Jersey Sports Radio will have its annual “Playoff Projection Show,” airing LIVE on Saturday at 6 pm. Mike Pavlichko hosts with analyst Marcus Borden, and they’ll run through all the projected brackets. Plus, you’ll hear from some of the league’s coaches as well.

Here’s our breakdown of the Group 1 supersections. We won’t be getting into how the brackets look just yet, but we’ll do that with our update after Friday night’s Week 8 action. Click the supersection header to see the official standings on Gridiron New Jersey.

NORTH GROUP 1

  • New Providence: The Pioneers sit in a good position, but aren’t guaranteed a top seed, even with a win Saturday against at Delaware Valley (5-3) Friday night. They don’t appear to have a path to the overall No. 1 seed, but we think they also need losses by both Hasbrouck Heights and Mountain Lakes to stay second overall, and get the top seed in North 2, Group 1. They should be in that section regardless, but we think if either Hasbrouck Heights or Mountain Lakes win, they’ll finish third overall, and be the No. 2 seed in their section. If both win, they’ll end up fourth. With a loss by New Providence, we still think the lowest they could end up is fourth.
  • Brearley: The Bears sit in 18th, and a loss at Dayton (6-1) Saturday would actually push them up to 16th, but a Boonton (4-3) win at Cedar Grove (5-3) the night before would eliminate them. It doesn’t appear anyone else would be able to bump them, so Brearley will be watching the scoreboard Friday night. In that scenario, they’d be two full UPR points out of 16th, and it’s unlikely some random quirk somewhere else would allow them in. A loss appears to eliminate them, with no way to get closer to 16, even with help.
  • Belvidere: Starting the week at 20, it looks like even a win over Middlesex (2-6) would leave them shy of 16th place. We believe they County Seaters are out.

SOUTH GROUP 1

  • Manville: The Mustangs – even with an 8-0 record – are a “true” No. 12; we call as team “true” when their power point rank, OSI rank and UPR are all the same. (Some teams can be 8th in one metric, 12th in another, and be 10th in UPR.) In any event, Manville has a big window, and there could be lost of different scenarios here. Friday night, they play a resurgent Bound Brook team that’s 5-3. It’s on the road, and for the Freedom Silver Division title, as if they needed more motivation! We think their range is eight to 12, maybe 14, if they were to lose to the Crusaders and have a lot of results break the wrong way. But it’s too early now to tell how all the different scenarios could shake out.
  • Highland Park: The Owls are in 15th, and oh-so-close to making the playoffs for the first time since 2010. Unfortunately, we think that streak is going to continue, since Highland Park (2-5) has a road game at South River Saturday, and the winless Rams are 0-8. Even a win would drop them to 18, and it’s unlikely there’s enough help to get them in. We believe the Owls are out.
  • Bound Brook: While the Crusaders are three spots behind Highland Park, they have a much stronger opponent in Manville (8-0) Friday night. They should be in with a win, as there are big-time power points at stake, but the Mustangs are such a strong opponent, it’s possible Bound Brook has a path to the field of 16 even with a loss.

by Mike Pavlichko

Gridiron New Jersey updates out-of-state SI; changes help Plainfield, Dayton edge up.

Gridiron New Jersey – the official calculator of the NJSIAA’s NJ UPR playoff formula – has updated the out-of-state Strength Index values for dozens of teams, with only 13 public schools affected as we head into Cutoff Weekend. But the changes helped give a boost to two Big Central Conference teams.

The changes affected North and South Group 5 and Group 2, as well as South 4 and North 3 supersections.

In four of those six sections, the teams that played out-of-state opponents only saw a minor increase or decrease, typically less than one full point. South 5, South 4, North 3 and South 2 saw no change in the standings or UPR numbers as a result.

But in the Big Central Conference, Plainfield and Dayton got boosts.

In the North 5 supersection, Plainfield – which lost at Haverford (PA) back on September 27th, 41-25 – bumped up from 18 to 15, putting themselves squarely on the right side of the playoff bubble. And the Cardinals could move up this week, as they close out Friday night at Linden (3-5), which sits in 12th place, and didn’t move with the new adjustments.

Here are the new standings in North 5:

A table displaying the standings for North Group 5 high school football teams, including columns for wins, losses, ties, points average, out-of-state index average, UPR, northing, UPR rank, and N rank.

Meanwhile, in South Group 2, Dayton (6-1) – one of the small schools struggling to get in the playoffs – edged up from 17 to 16. The Bulldogs have been hurt by wins over three unbeaten teams this year – South Hunterdon, South River and Dunellen – but also have wins over Roselle Park (5-2), Spotswood (7-1) and Belvidere (4-4). Their final game, this Saturday at home against Brearley (4-4), might be a play-in game, and we’ll have to do further analysis to see if there’s a chance they can get in with a loss, or not make it even with a win. It’ll be close!

Here are the new standings in North 2:

Table displaying the updated standings for North Group 2 teams in New Jersey high school football, including team names, wins, losses, ties, and other statistics.
by Mike Pavlichko

Here are the official, locked in Strength Index numbers for H.S. Football after Week 7 as of Sunday’s Gridrion NJ update

Week Seven is in the books, and Cutoff Weekend is upon us.

This Thursday, Friday and Saturday are the final games of the high school football season for public schools before the NJSIAA announces the playoff brackets on Sunday. This week, all SI values are locked in, so that the values used to calculate OSI – one of two metrics in the UPR system, the other being power points – will not change after this weekend’s results, for playoff qualification only.

SI continues to be tracked all year through the state finals, with those numbers adjusted for the start of the 2026 season.

So, all that matters for this weekend is whether a team won or lost, and how many points they get.

Below are the official Strength Index values for all high school football teams in New Jersey, per Gridiron New Jersey – which handles the official calculations for the NJSIAA – in alphabetical order. Big Central Conference teams are in bold.

Please note, Gridiron has occasionally made a correction or two during the week, so there could be a slight alteration this week. And Gridiron New Jersey has yet to compile updated SI values for out-of-state teams,

Don’t forget, Central Jersey Sports Radio will broadcast the “2025 Playoff Projection Show” this Saturday at 6 pm, hosted by Mike Pavlichko and analyst Marcus Borden. They’ll go over CJSR’s unofficial bracket projections for all five public school groups, talk to several area coaches, and break down the projected pairings. Bookmark this link to listen!

Strength Index Values for Week 8 (GINJ)Download
by Mike Pavlichko

Residuals down to a low trickle for playoff hopefuls in Week 8, as SI values lock in

With Cutoff Weekend upon us, and most teams having played at least seven games, there will be very few residuals to be had this week, though some teams can get an edge if they pick up three points here or one point there.

In the power points metric of the NJ UPR playoff formula, teams get three residual points for each win by an opponent they beat, and one for each win by an opponent they lost to. (Ties are worth 1.5 points.) That’s in addition to six quality points for a win, or three for a tie.

But because not every school plays the same number of games, and some have Thanksgiving, the NJSIAA has two caps in place. One maxes out residuals at 18 (six wins) and the other says only an opponent’s first seven games count for residuals.

So, a team that is 7-0 would not add residuals for any of its opponents, as this would be its eighth game.

In addition, SI values are locked in at the end of this week, for playoff qualification purposes only. Strength Index numbers change each week based on the score of a game relative to the two teams’ current SI ratings. That will still be calculated this week – and through the playoffs – but for the purposes of seeding, the NJSIAA uses the numbers as-is, after Week 7 games.

Keep in mind, Gridiron New Jersey – which does the official calculations for the NJSIAA – also will be updating the SI values for all out-of-state competition this week.

Here’s the short list of teams, by conference, who have yet to play seven games, and can provide residuals to their opponents this coming week:

  • Big Central: None
  • Shore Conference: Middletown North
  • West Jersey Football League: Haddon Twp.
  • Super Football Conference: Kennedy
  • NJIC: None
by Mike Pavlichko

Projected moves in Week 7 NJSIAA UPR playoff standings: Bernards edges down, Spotswood’s gap grows slightly, Voorhees closer to the bubble

Central Jersey Sports Radio has done its own unofficial calculations on the state’s playoff standings, and a few teams moved around after Saturday’s Week 7 action across the state.

We’ll have more in-depth analysis once we confirm our numbers with Gridiron New Jersey, which performs the official calculations for the NJSIAA. That typically is on Sundays, and then all the SI numbers lock in for Week 8, Cutoff Weekend. At some point, teams could shift again as out-of-state SI numbers are adjusted one last time. That will affect 14 different schools in six different supersections.

North 5

  • Union dropped from a 14th-place tie with Passaic to a 16th-place tie with Morristown, with its UPR picking up 0.6 points. For the Farmers, however, they would have to beat Phillipsburg on the road Friday night to reach the minimum of two wins needed for playoff qualification.
  • Plainfield dropped from 17 to 18, but it’s UPR stayed the same, and it’s actually closer to one of the final playoff spots in terms of UPR points; they were 1.4 points out of the last spot, now it’s a single point.

South 5

  • Hunterdon Central flip-flopped with Franklin and now sits in 18th, with the Warriors in 19th. The Red Devils likely win if they win at Hillsborough Friday. The Warriors may not be able to make up the ground they need to, playing winless North Brunswick.

North 4

  • A Bergenfield win – they were No. 21 – saw them jump Rahway, and now the two are tied at 16th, with a 17.8 UPR. The Indians could get in with a win over Montgomery Friday at home, a 6:30 game you can hear on Central Jersey Sports Radio.

North 2

  • Bernards edged down one spot to fourth, flip-flopping with Hanover Park. The Mountaineers host Carteret (3-4) Friday night, and we’re not sure they’ll have a path to the top seed; they might at least need some help.

South 2

  • Voorhees drops from 16 to 15 as Overbrook jumped them from behind with a win Saturday.
  • Spotswood started Saturday as a true 18 (18th in power points, OSI and UPR), and they remain there, but are further back in UPR points. They were 2.6 back, now they’re 3.6 behind 16th-place Voorhees.