Cutoff Weekend Group 1 Playoff Update: New Providence still has good shot at No. 1 seed, but may need help; can Brearley make it with a win?

It’s Cutoff Weekend in New Jersey high school football, and we’re taking a look at the playoff scenarios for every Big Central team in contention.

This week, Strength Index values are locked in, and out-of-state opponent SI values also have been updated by Gridiron New Jersey, which does all the official calculations of the NJ UPR formula for the NJSIAA. And we’ve double- and triple-checked our own standings to make sure they match with Gridiron’s.

We’ll have another update to the standings after Friday night’s games – yes, there are Thursday games, but none in the BCC, and we’ll only update if there are significant changes.

And, of course, Central Jersey Sports Radio will have its annual “Playoff Projection Show,” airing LIVE on Saturday at 6 pm. Mike Pavlichko hosts with analyst Marcus Borden, and they’ll run through all the projected brackets. Plus, you’ll hear from some of the league’s coaches as well.

Here’s our breakdown of the Group 1 supersections. We won’t be getting into how the brackets look just yet, but we’ll do that with our update after Friday night’s Week 8 action. Click the supersection header to see the official standings on Gridiron New Jersey.

NORTH GROUP 1

• New Providence: The Pioneers sit in a good position, but aren’t guaranteed a top seed, even with a win Saturday against at Delaware Valley (5-3) Friday night. They don’t appear to have a path to the overall No. 1 seed, but we think they also need losses by both Hasbrouck Heights and Mountain Lakes to stay second overall, and get the top seed in North 2, Group 1. They should be in that section regardless, but we think if either Hasbrouck Heights or Mountain Lakes win, they’ll finish third overall, and be the No. 2 seed in their section. If both win, they’ll end up fourth. With a loss by New Providence, we still think the lowest they could end up is fourth.
• Brearley: The Bears sit in 18th, and a loss at Dayton (6-1) Saturday would actually push them up to 16th, but a Boonton (4-3) win at Cedar Grove (5-3) the night before would eliminate them. It doesn’t appear anyone else would be able to bump them, so Brearley will be watching the scoreboard Friday night. In that scenario, they’d be two full UPR points out of 16th, and it’s unlikely some random quirk somewhere else would allow them in. A loss appears to eliminate them, with no way to get closer to 16, even with help.
• Belvidere: Starting the week at 20, it looks like even a win over Middlesex (2-6) would leave them shy of 16th place. We believe they County Seaters are out.

SOUTH GROUP 1

• Manville: The Mustangs – even with an 8-0 record – are a “true” No. 12; we call as team “true” when their power point rank, OSI rank and UPR are all the same. (Some teams can be 8th in one metric, 12th in another, and be 10th in UPR.) In any event, Manville has a big window, and there could be lost of different scenarios here. Friday night, they play a resurgent Bound Brook team that’s 5-3. It’s on the road, and for the Freedom Silver Division title, as if they needed more motivation! We think their range is eight to 12, maybe 14, if they were to lose to the Crusaders and have a lot of results break the wrong way. But it’s too early now to tell how all the different scenarios could shake out.
• Highland Park: The Owls are in 15th, and oh-so-close to making the playoffs for the first time since 2010. Unfortunately, we think that streak is going to continue, since Highland Park (2-5) has a road game at South River Saturday, and the winless Rams are 0-8. Even a win would drop them to 18, and it’s unlikely there’s enough help to get them in. We believe the Owls are out.
• Bound Brook: While the Crusaders are three spots behind Highland Park, they have a much stronger opponent in Manville (8-0) Friday night. They should be in with a win, as there are big-time power points at stake, but the Mustangs are such a strong opponent, it’s possible Bound Brook has a path to the field of 16 even with a loss.