With just one more week before Cutoff Weekend in New Jersey High School football, we’re taking another detailed look at the standings and scenarios facing every public school in the Big Central Conference that’s in contention for a playoff berth.

Assuming scores are reported in a timely fashion Friday night, we’ll also publish updated standings and some light analysis late Friday or early Saturday morning. Our next update will be next week, leading up to the cutoff.

This season’s playoff coverage – both leading up to and in the postseason – is proudly presented by Dayton Collision on Route 130 in South Brunswick! That includes all our analysis over the next few weeks, as well as our LIVE Playoff Projection Show, scheduled for Saturday evening, October 23rd, and tentatively set for 6 pm.

Here’s a detailed team-by-team look at the Group 1 supersections, North and South as we head into Week 7 play this Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

NORTH GROUP 1:

• After the top two teams – Cedar Grove (5-1, 1.0 UPR) and Newton (7-0, 2.0) – look fairly entrenched in their positions, the first Big Central team we find is Belvidere (6-1, 10.40) at No. 11. While they might have a chance at a top eight seed and a first round home game, we think the more likely scenario is that they start on the road, finishing in the bottom eight. The only question here is who they’ll play; the County Seaters don’t appear to be in danger of missing the playoffs. They finish at North Warren (2-5) this week and home against Delaware Valley (5-2) next Saturday.
• On the bubble, but on the right side this week, are Dayton (5-2, 14.8) and Brearley (5-2, 15.6). Clinching a playoff spot may come down to the final week. The biggest – and maybe only – threat behind them is Hawthorne (3-3, 16.2) at 17. That’s because at No. 18 is Kittatinny (16.8) at just 1-5. They have Sussex Tech (0-6) this week and North Warren (2-5) next week, and even a sweep may not move the needle. And, they will need to win at least one to qualify for the playoffs; there’s no backing in for them. The next team is back Wallington in 19th, and while they’re 3-4, their UPR is 19.0, and that’s a lot of ground to make up to catch Brearley, which is 3.4 points ahead. Dayton has a solid schedule from here out, with Highland Park (7-0) and Manville (5-2) next weekend. Brearley has Roselle Park (3-4) and North Plainfield (4-3), and while that may not be enough to move them up much, even if they sweep, they probably won’t be hurt much either. Bottom line: we like both team’s chances. One side note: the Bears’ leading rusher Monroe Passmoore just had one carry last week, and his health down the stretch could be a wild card in this scenario.

SOUTH GROUP 2:

• Paulsboro (5-2, 1.4 UPR) and Schalick (7-0, 1.6) are the top two teams here, and are in good shape generally, but could flip by the time all is said and done. After Salem (4-3, 3.0, 3rd) and Pennsville (4-3, 6.0), there are two Big Central teams: Delaware Valley (5-2, 7.6) and Highland Park (7-0, 7.6) tied for fifth. Either could potentially end up in the top four, but No. 4 is probably the ceiling for both. They didn’t and don’t play each other this year, so there’s no head-to-head tiebreaker that could be involved. The Terriers have North Plainfield (4-3) at home this week and Belvidere (6-1) on the road next week, so a move to fourth is doable. Same for the Owls, who have Dayton (5-2) on the road this week for the Freedom Gold Division title, and then close next Friday at home against Metuchen (2-4) in their annual rival game, at which L.J. Smith’s jersey will be retired by Highland Park.
• Manville (5-2, 10.8) checks in at No. 12, and we believe they are solidly in the field of 16 at this point, but, but getting into the top eight might be a big ask, with Penns Grove (4-2) and Shore (2-4) tied for eighth at 8.60 UPR. The Mustangs have Hillside (6-1) this week at home, then are at Dayton (5-2) next week. So, we’ll put emphasis on might in the previous sentence as far as earning a first-round home game.
• The biggest question here is can South Hunterdon (4-3, 19.2, 18th) make it? They’re tied with Woodbury (2-5), and the Herd play the last game on the schedule Saturday – at 6 pm! Why? – when they play Buena, which will be ineligible for the playoffs after multiple players were DQd in a fight that broke out in a game with Lindenwold (although they wouldn’t have qualified anyway). They also have to jump New Egypt (4-3, 18.6). Problem is their last two opponents are Dunellen (1-5) at home this week, and Lyndhurst (1-6) away on Cutoff Weekend. This may not be in the cards.

With just one more week before Cutoff Weekend in New Jersey High School football, we’re taking another detailed look at the standings and scenarios facing every public school in the Big Central Conference that’s in contention for a playoff berth.

Assuming scores are reported in a timely fashion Friday night, we’ll also publish updated standings and some light analysis late Friday or early Saturday morning. Our next update will be next week, leading up to the cutoff.

This season’s playoff coverage – both leading up to and in the postseason – is proudly presented by Dayton Collision on Route 130 in South Brunswick! That includes all our analysis over the next few weeks, as well as our LIVE Playoff Projection Show, scheduled for Saturday evening, October 23rd, and tentatively set for 6 pm.

Here’s a detailed team-by-team look at the Group 2 supersections, North and South as we head into Week 7 play this Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

NORTH GROUP 2:

• Westwood (5-1, 1.0 UPR) and Caldwell (6-0, 1.6) currently lead the section and look like they will most likely finish in the top two – even if they flip-flop – and get the two No. 1 seeds. Then, it’s down to five for Bernards (5-2, 5.20). We think the Mountaineers can finish in the top four, just 1.4 UPR points behind Hoboken (6-1, 3.8) and 0.2 more behind third-place Waldwick/Midland Park (6-1, 3.6). If not, we think they’re a pretty solid top eight team right now. They should beat winless JFK, but they might need to beat a very tough Summit (5-2) on the road Saturday of Cutoff Weekend to hang on to that spot. The question is, will it be enough for a top-four finish? It could be, but they might need some help, with the Kennedy game a big detriment at the moment. (Side note: Bernards head coach Jon Simoneau played his high school ball at JFK.)
• New Providence (5-1, 10.0) checks in at No. 9, down three spots this week after the loss to Perth Amboy, their first of the season. That made a dent, but certainly the Panthers’ 6-1 record at the moment prevented the damage from being any worse. Still, that defeat may have cost them a first-round home game, sitting 1.2 UPR points behind High Point (6-1, 8.8). They are probably the only team the Pioneers can catch if they’re going to get into the top eight. Question is, will their schedule allow them to make a move? They’re at Spotswood (3-4) this week and home to Governor Livingston (3-4) next week; a sweep and a High Point loss might do it, but we’ll know a lot more after this week.
• Hillside (6-1) is the last Big Central team in the running here, and it looked like they might be the Spotswood of 2026. (The Chargers last year were 8-1 and missed the playoffs due to a one-point loss to Dayton, on a tiebreaker they lost to three-win Camden Eastside.) But now at 6-1, they made a big jump this week from 19 to 14, and are now squarely in the picture. They haven’t locked anything down yet, but they’re looking good. The schedule is tough – at Manville (5-2) and Cranford (6-0) in the final two weeks – but that also means that a win in either of both not only should be enough to get them in the playoffs, but could improve their standing greatly. They won’t get a first round home game, but they could be in the top half of the bottom eight if they can sweep the Mustangs and Cougars.

SOUTH GROUP 2:

• West Deptford (7-0, 1.6 UPR) and Rumson-Fair Haven (5-2) are pretty good bets for the No. 1 and 2 seeds, but beyond that, there’s just one Big Central team in the running, and it’s A.L. Johnson. The Crusaders are 14th at the moment, just as they were last week, sitting at 4-2 with a 15.0 UPR. It’s only 1.4 points back to No. 17, though, so nothing is set in stone here. The Crusaders are in Perth Amboy Friday night to take on the Panthers (6-1) for the Patriot Silver Division title, and a win could lock up a spot, since they would get 24 power points for that game – six for a win and 18 residuals – a big boost for their current 9.67 power point average. They may need that win to get in the playoffs, since they would only get six points from a victory over winless JFK in the final week. Stay tuned here…

With just one more week before Cutoff Weekend in New Jersey High School football, we’re taking another detailed look at the standings and scenarios facing every public school in the Big Central Conference that’s in contention for a playoff berth.

Assuming scores are reported in a timely fashion Friday night, we’ll also publish updated standings and some light analysis late Friday or early Saturday morning. Our next update will be next week, leading up to the cutoff.

This season’s playoff coverage – both leading up to and in the postseason – is proudly presented by Dayton Collision on Route 130 in South Brunswick! That includes all our analysis over the next few weeks, as well as our LIVE Playoff Projection Show, scheduled for Saturday evening, October 23rd, and tentatively set for 6 pm.

Here’s a detailed team-by-team look at the North 4 and North 3 supersections as we head into Week 7 play this Thursday, Friday and Saturday. (Note: There are no Big Central Conference teams classified in the South 4 or South 4 supersections.)

NORTH GROUP 4:

• While Middletown North (5-0, 1.8 UPR) sits atop the North 4 supersection, Rahway (6-1, 2.8) made a huge jump in the past week, climbing from the 5th spot, over Ridge, to pull up into the No. 2 overall position. They still have teams behind them that could catch them, like Roxbury (5-2, 3.4, 3rd) and Northern highlands (4-2, 3.6, 4th), and even possible Ridge (4-2, 4.6, 5th). The downside for the Indians is they are at Colonia and home against Edison next week, both 2-5 and not allowing for many residuals. Roxbury has Mount Olive (4-2) and Mendham (3-4), a tougher schedule, but then again, that also could mean a greater chance they drop one of those games than Rahway does. And Northern Highlands has Old Tappan (6-0) and Pascack Valley (3-4), so the same goes for the Highlanders.
• As for the Red Devils, the above scenarios with Roxbury and Northern Highlands could help them; despite having Hillsborough (1-5) this week and not many residuals, a win over Old Bridge, who could be 7-1 by next week could do the trick if Roxbury and/or Northern Highlands drop one of their two remaining games. Ultimately, we think Rahway has a good shot to finish with a top-seed, and Ridge likely finishes in the top four.
• Summit (5-2, 8.0) is probably out of reach of a top four finish, but is hardly assured a top eight finish, which would guarantee at least one home game in the playoffs. Their remaining two games are not necessarily daunting, but certainly are enough, we think, to keep them in the top eight should they win out. A split would be another matter.
• Montgomery (4-3, 9.4) is only one UPR point out of the top eight, but even winning out may not be enough to move the needle, as they play at winless North Hunterdon (0-7) this week ad home against Hillsborough (1-6) next week. They’re in the playoffs, but we think will start on the road in the opening round.
• Woodbridge (4-3, 14.0) and Carteret (4-3, 14.6) sit in 14th and 15th place, respectively, but are very much on the bubble, albeit the right side of it. They will need to hold off 16th-place Hackensack (3-3, 15.4) and Watchung Hills (3-4, 16.4), but are probably safe from 18th-place Nutley (2-5, 18.4). So, we see five teams battling it out for the last four playoff spots, if you want to throw Middletown South (3-3, 13.20) in the mix of potentially vulnerable teams, though they would be the least of all. We think the Barrons and Carteret will make it, assuming they at least split their last two games ; Woodbridge has Linden (3-3) and Franklin (2-5), both at home, while Carteret has a tougher slate, though both are at home: unbeaten Cranford (6-0) and Monroe (4-3). And what about the Warriors? They have a pair of road games with Plainfield (2-5) and Bridgewater-Raritan (6-1), and interesting mix. A split leaves them a good chance, but a sweep might be a big ask.
• Last one here: Does Colonia (2-5, 19.8, 20th) have a shot? They have a lot of teams to jump, and are 4.4 UPR points out of the top 16. They would probably have to sweep Rahway (6-1) and South Brunswick (3-4), both of which are at home, and do a lot of scoreboard watching, dig out the rabbit’s foot, etc.

NORTH GROUP 3:

• Cranford has edges closer in UPR to the top two, which would get them a top-seed, but the Cougars (6-0) still aren’t quite there yet. Old Tappan (6-0, 1.4 UPR) still leads the section, followed by Shabazz (5-1, 2.4), which leads Cranford by just 0.4 UPR points, as the lead shrunk by one full point after last week’s games. That makes this still too close to call. But the good news is Cranford has two strong opponents the next two weeks: at Carteret (4-3) for the United Gold championship Friday night, and home against Hillside (6-1) next week. At least one win there might still be enough to jump Shabazz, which hosts Snyder (1-6) then Newark West Side (3-4) the last two weeks. Bottom line: We like the Cougars’ chances at a top-seed if they win out. And it might even be possible to gain the overall No. 1, depending how Old Tappan does. Yes, they are unbeaten, but close with two road games: at Northern Highlands (4-2) and at Montville (6-1). Yes, we really like the Cougars’ chances.
• Somerville (4-3, 11.2) drops a spot this week from nine to ten, and at 4.2 UPR points behind eighth-place River Dell (5-2, 7.6), here’s a solid prediction: they’re in, and will start on the road, with little to no chance of a top eight finish.
• South Plainfield (4-3, 15.8) drops from 15 to 16 this week, and the Tigers will need to do some winning here in the final two weeks. They could move up, but they could also drop out – the epitome of a bubble team. South Plainfield closes at Governor Livingston (3-4) this week and with Perth Amboy (6-1) at home on Cutoff Weekend. As of now, we think they need to win both. But let’s see how the teams around them do this week before we make a determination on the Amboy game. Nipping at their heels are Pascack Valley (3-4, 16.2, 17th) just 0.4 UPR behind the Tigers, and 18th-place Paramus (4-3, 16.8 UPR), just one UPR point behind.

With just one more week before Cutoff Weekend in New Jersey High School football, we’re taking another detailed look at the standings and scenarios facing every public school in the Big Central Conference that’s in contention for a playoff berth.

Assuming scores are reported in a timely fashion Friday night, we’ll also publish updated standings and some light analysis late Friday or early Saturday morning. Our next update will be next week, leading up to the cutoff.

This season’s playoff coverage – both leading up to and in the postseason – is proudly presented by Dayton Collision on Route 130 in South Brunswick! That includes all our analysis over the next few weeks, as well as our LIVE Playoff Projection Show, scheduled for Saturday evening, October 23rd, and tentatively set for 6 pm.

Here’s a detailed team-by-team look at the Group 5 supersections, North and South as we head into Week 7 play this Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

NORTH GROUP 5:

• The top two teams have flipped here, with West Orange (5-1, 1.6 UPR) now in first, ahead of Ramapo (4-2, 2.2). But that leaves Elizabeth (7-0, 2.6) still in the chase in third, but now 0.4 UPR points back, when last week they were just 0.2 away. However, Piscataway (6-1, 3.6) is a bit closer, even though they’re still at No. 4, since they’re just 1.4 out of the top two; last week the difference was two whole points. What’s that all mean? This is still wide-open, and the one to keep an eye on is Ramapo, which plays Wayne Hills (6-1) this week. A loss their could open the door for the Minutemen or the Chiefs.
• Bridgewater-Raritan (6-1, 6.2) is down two spots to seven, but a win at Phillipsburg this Friday night – in a game you can hear live on Central Jersey Sports Radio at 7 pm – likely does wonders for the Panthers. Even a trip to Union next week could give them a boost. They might need some help from the teams above them, however. We’ll know much more around 9:30 Friday night.
• Phillipsburg (4-2, 8.8) was idle last week but dropped one spot in the standings to ninth. We don’t think they have a shot at the top four, but they should finish in the top eight if they beat Bridgewater-Raritan at Maloney Friday night. If not, a win over Hunterdon Central on Cutoff Weekend might not be enough to earn a first round home game.
• Union (5-2, 10.4) is in tenth – same as they were last week – but they dropped in their UPR number, and likely aren’t within reach of the top eight, even if they were to beat Bridgewater-Raritan at home next week. The Farmers are in the playoffs, but likely start out on the road.
• Perth Amboy (6-1, 10.8) is having its best season in decades, and last week’s huge win at New Providence moves them up from a bubble team at No. 15 to squarely in the playoff picture at eleven. Like Union, they should end up on the road in the first round.
• Plainfield (2-5, 15.0) and Linden (3-3, 16.0) currently hold the last two playoff spots as true 15s and 16s (meaning they are both 15 and 16 in both power points and OSI). They are far from safe, however, with Bloomfield (3-4, 17.0) and Livingston (4-3, 18.0) the two most likely to challenge them. The Cardinals likely have to win Friday against Watchung Hills (3-4) and next Saturday at Westfield (2-5) to control their own destiny; same for Linden, which has a tougher schedule, but more points available this Friday at Woodbridge (4-3) and next Friday at home against Union (5-2)

SOUTH GROUP 5:

• This section is still led by unbeaten Washington Twp. (7-0, 2.2 UPR), but now Southern (6-1, 2.4) has jumped up into second, knocking Rancocas Valley (7-0, 2.6) to third and Old Bridge (6-1, 2.8) down to fourth, but the Knights are still in the thick of things. They have East Brunswick (3-4) at home this week, which may not move the needle much, but a win at Ridge (4-2) Friday night of Cutoff Weekend would, so don’t count them out for a top seed this year. The only thing we know here is it won’t be decided this week.
• Sayreville (5-2, 6.8) has pulled into a sixth-place tie with Williamstown (5-2), and with both a full four UPR points out of the top four, we think it’s unlikely either gets there. For the Bombers, that includes a scenario where they win both their remaining games. While they have Piscataway (6-1) Cutoff Weekend, having North Brunswick (1-6) this week doesn’t help much. A top eight finish, however, appears very likely, especially if Jackson Twp. (2-5, 9.6, 9th) splits their last two games with Wall and Point Pleasant Boro, both on the road. A win over the Chiefs’ would lock that in, for sure.
• Then, we get down to the 16th and final spot, currently a tie between Freehold Twp. (3-4, 16.6) and Monroe (4-3, 16.6). As for now, the tiebreaker would go to Freehold Twp. here, as they have not played head-to-head and have no common opponents; that puts it on OSI – where there are rarely ties – with Freehold at 42.49 and Monroe at 40.18. The Falcons have some winning to do, and the good news is neither of their last two games will hurt them, unless they lose both. They’ve got Piscataway at home this week and Carteret at the Pit next Friday. A split is good, but a sweep is better for the Falcons. But they also have a team nipping at their heels…
• …and that team is South Brunswick (3-4, 16.8). The Vikings are just 0.2 UPR points behind Monroe and Freehold Twp, so any movement they make upward in either power points of OSI would put them in the top 16. They’ve got Franklin (2-5) at home this week and Colonia (2-5) next week. They might have to win both. But here’s one positive: should they end up at 17 and Monroe at 16, South Brunswick would jump them and get in the playoffs on the head-to-head rule. But, keep in mind, you can only jump a team on head-to-head if they are directly above you. Inotherwords, if it was Monroe at 14, Freehold at 15 and South Brunswick at 16, the Vikings would be left out in the cold, but…
• …there’s one caveat to the above scenarios with Monroe and South Brunswick: Kingsway. The Dragons – the defending South Jersey Group 5 champions, who are 0-7 – currently sit in 14th place in the standings. (Yes, it’s ridiculous that a winless team should be up that high in any formula, but that’s another argument for another day.) The minimum for playoff qualification is two, so unless they win both remaining games, they’re out, and you can bump the Falcons and Vikings up one more spot. That puts Freehold and Monroe tied for 15, with South Brunswick at 17. Kingsway hosts 6-1 St. Augustine this Saturday, a pretty big ask for a winless team, so we highly anticipate them being ineligible and this revised scenario playing out. And with Cherokee (1-6, 18.6) and Hillsborough (1-6, 20.0) the closest teams behind Monroe and South Brunswick, we don’t think they will have the fend them off much.

As we get closer to Cutoff Weekend in New Jersey High School football, we’ll be taking a more detailed look each week at the standings, and the scenarios involving every public school in the Big Central Conference in contention for a playoff spot.

This season’s playoff coverage – both leading up to and in the postseason – is proudly presented by Dayton Collision on Route 130 in South Brunswick! That includes all our analysis over the next few weeks, as well as our LIVE Playoff Projection Show, scheduled for Saturday evening, October 23rd, and tentatively set for 6 pm.

Here’s a detailed team-by-team look at the North and South Group 1 Supersections as we head into Week 6 play this Thursday, Friday and Saturday. (Note: This analysis does not include Thursday night games in Week 6.)

NORTH GROUP 1:

• Cedar Grove (4-1, 1.00 UPR) is the “true” No. 1 seed here, with Newton (6-0, 2.00) a true two. After that, it’s a bit of a way to No. 3 Wood-Ridge (6-0, 4.40) and the first Big Central team, which is Dayton (4-2, 10.80) at No. 9, tied with New Milford, which also is 4-2. The Bulldogs are within 0.20 UPR points of No. 8 Verona, and they could even catch seventh-place Mountain Lakes (4-2, 8.60), but that’s likely their ceiling as of now. But they will have to watch at least four teams – including New Milford – all within a single UPR point behind them.
• Belvidere (5-1, 12.40) checks in at No. 14, and may have a tough time reaching the top eight to get a first round home game, but they certainly can make a positive move upward over the next couple of weeks.
• So can Brearley (5-1, 12.20), which is in 15th place. The nice thing is the Bears – though they won’t reach the top eight, are a full three points ahead of 16th place Hawthorne (3-2, 15.40), and four ahead of 17th place Wallington (3-3, 16.40). They may not be locked in just yet, but we wouldn’t call them a bubble team just yet. They’re well-situated on the right side of it, though.

SOUTH GROUP 1:

• Undefeated Schalick (6-0, 1.00 UPR) and Paulsboro (4-2, 2.00) are the “true” one- and two-seeds here, and then it’s down to seventh for our first Big Central team, where we have Delaware Valley (4-2) and Penns Grove (4-1) tied, both with 7.20 UPRs. We think the Terriers’ ceiling is around four, as Woodstown (3-3, 6.40) is not that far ahead, even though they are three places higher, with Audubon (3-2, 6.60) and Shore (2-3, 7.00) in between. Ultimately, they look like a top eight finisher.
• Manville (5-2, 10.00) sat in 11th before its Thursday night win at Middlesex, but we’re not going to update the standings here, other than to say that even their 28-20 victory may not have given them enough OSI points to move up. Still, they were just 2.80 UPR points out of the top eight, and have Hillside (5-1) and Dayton (4-2) next week, where a pair of wins could boost their standing. The question is: how much?
• Highland Park (6-0, 13.40 UPR) sits in 14th, as the Owls – with their second six-win season in the last three years, following a 51-game losing streak – try to break their playoff drought; their last appearance was in 2010. Can they? Well, they have their toughest stretch of the year this week and next, with Brearley at home Friday, then a trip to Dayton next Friday before closing with former Thanksgiving rival Metuchen at home on Cutoff Weekend. They very well may need to win one of the next two, but then again, running the table and going undefeated would help, too, because regardless of where they finish, a 9-0 mark would guarantee them a playoff berth by NJSIAA rule. We aren’t sure it will have to come to that.

As we get closer to Cutoff Weekend in New Jersey High School football, we’ll be taking a more detailed look each week at the standings, and the scenarios involving every public school in the Big Central Conference in contention for a playoff spot.

This season’s playoff coverage – both leading up to and in the postseason – is proudly presented by Dayton Collision on Route 130 in South Brunswick! That includes all our analysis over the next few weeks, as well as our LIVE Playoff Projection Show, scheduled for Saturday evening, October 23rd, and tentatively set for 6 pm.

Here’s a detailed team-by-team look at the North and South Group 2 Supersections as we head into Week 6 play this Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

NORTH GROUP 2:

• Bernards (4-2, 3.80 UPR) is tied for fourth in a very tight four-team group behind first-place Caldwell (5-0, 1.00 UPR). The Chiefs are what we call a “pure” top-seed, No. 1 in both power point ranking and OSI ranking. We don’t see them slipping from that spot, but the next four teams include Rutherford (6-0) and Westwood (4-1) tied with 3.60 UPRs, and the Mountaineers and Hoboken (5-1) tied for fourth with 3.80 UPRs. Any of these teams have a shot at a top two finish, and a top seed in whatever section they’re assigned. And all obviously are in a good place for securing a top four seed – guaranteeing home field through the first two rounds of the playoffs.
• Then there’s New Providence (5-0, 7.00 UPR). We don’t think the Pioneers – even though they’re only in sixth place, not that far away – are in a position where they might be able to get into that top four. Luckily for them, Perth Amboy is having a season for the ages, and their UPR is up into the mid-60s, so even a win over them will help, whereas last year, beating the Panthers might actually have hurt them. But it still might be a lot of ground to make up.
• The next – and last – Big Central team in contention here is Hillside. And despite the Comets’ 5-1 record, a weak schedule has them in the same kind of boat as Spotswood was last year, when they were 8-1 after Cutoff Weekend but missed the playoffs. They are in 19th place with a 19.20 UPR, but are just 1.4 UPR points out of the top 16. Only one of their five wins has come against a team over .500 – against Delaware Valley, which is 4-2. Their remaining schedule is their toughest stretch of the season: North Plainfield (4-2) at home Saturday, then at Manville (4-2) and Cranford (5-0) on Cutoff Weekend, both at home. It might take wins in two of those three games to get in.

SOUTH GROUP 2:

• Believe it or not, not a single Big Central team is in the top 16 in the South 2 supersection. The highest-standing team is Governor Livingston, a highly respectable 3-3 on the season, but they are in 19th with an 18.40 UPR, 2.6 UPR points behind the two teams tied for 15th: Overbrook (2-4) and Sterling (2-4), both with 14.80 UPRs. Everyone else is 22 or lower, including Spotswood (2-4, 21.60) at 22 and Roselle (0-5, 23.40) at 23.

As we get closer to Cutoff Weekend in New Jersey High School football, we’ll be taking a more detailed look each week at the standings, and the scenarios involving every public school in the Big Central Conference in contention for a playoff spot.

This season’s playoff coverage – both leading up to and in the postseason – is proudly presented by Dayton Collision on Route 130 in South Brunswick! That includes all our analysis over the next few weeks, as well as our LIVE Playoff Projection Show, scheduled for Saturday evening, October 23rd, and tentatively set for 6 pm.

Here’s a detailed team-by-team look at the North Group 4 and North Group 3 Supersections as we head into Week 6 play this Thursday, Friday and Saturday. (Note: There are no Big Central teams classified in South Group 3 or Group 4.)

NORTH GROUP 4:

• Even after an upset of previously top-ranked Phillipsburg last Friday night, Ridge (3-2, 3.80 UPR) might find it too steep a challenge to get one of the two top seeds, but we don’t think it’s exactly out of the question. A lot of this could come down to strength of schedule, and how much that impacts SI values, and by extension, OSI. For now, the Red Devils are in fourth, just .4 behind third-place Roxbury (4-2, 3.40), but nearly two full points behind second-place Northern Highlands (4-2, 2.00), and exactly two behind first-place Middletown North (5-0, 1.80). One of the concepts we talk about every year is that it’s harder for teams high in the standings to make jumps with wins than it is for lower teams. Why? Consider the math: If you add one win to a team that has ten wins, your win total increased just ten percent. But if you are a team that has five wins, your win total increases by 20 percent; you can make a bigger jump. But here’s where that could help the Red Devils, who despite a 3-2 record, are boosted by their tough schedule. And every team around them from third up to first and fifth down to seventh has more wins than them. That means a win by Ridge should have more of an impact than wins by those other teams. So maybe they can make up some ground? The Red Devils close with Westfield home, at Hillsborough, and against Old Bridge the final weekend, and even though the Blue Devils and Raiders are both 1-5, their SI values – both over 50 – shouldn’t hurt Ridge too much. Assuming they win both, this may come down to the Old Bridge game, currently worth 75.79 OSI points. So, this might take a while to determine.
• Right behind the Knights is Rahway (5-1, 4.00), so they’re almost as close as Ridge, but they have a stronger schedule SI-wise, with all three opponents over 60, and Rahway in the mid-70s SI-wise. Can they earn a top-seed? Maybe. They might actually need some help from the teams they need to beat. Can they end up in the top four, guaranteeing the Madden Field advantage through at least the sectional semifinals? Absolutely: there are just 0.60 UPR points separating the Indians, Ridge and Roxbury.
• Woodbridge (4-2, 9.20) is in seventh, two spots behind Rahway, but with a significant UPR gap of 5.20 UPR points. For a four-win team, as described earlier, that’s a lot to make up unless you go on one helluva tear, and someone above you collapses down the stretch. That makes us theink they probably have a ceiling of six, but the Barrons may need to win out to fend off a tight pack behind them battling to finish in the top eight so they can get at least a first-round home playoff game. There are three teams behind them within less than half a point, including Mount Olive (3-2, 9.40) and Summit (4-2, 9.40) tied four eighth, and Montgomery (3-3, 9.60) in tenth. So, yes, the Hilltoppers and Cougars also have a shot at a top eight seed, but right now we see at least those four teams battling for the last two places in the top eight. Maybe Garfield (5-1, 10.60, 11th) and Middletown South (3-3, 11.00, 12th) have a longshot chance, too. But ultimately, this is too jumbled up to predict now and should come down to the final weekend.
• Carteret (3-3, 14.40) and Watchung Hills (2-4, 15.80) take the last two spots for now, 15th and 16th, and are very much bubble teams at this point. This is also going to be too close to call, with no guarantee even if they win out they’ll get in. At least not now; depending what other teams around them do, we could have a much clearer picture after this weekend. The Ramblers have JFK on the road this week, but close with home games against Cranford and Monroe; at the very least, those last two, if they can get a win, will help them – especially with Monroe’s turnaround. The Warriors have North Hunterdon home this week, then are at Plainfield and Bridgewater-Raritan, a steady increase in quality of teams. The teams to watch around them include two above that they both could jump – Teaneck (3-2, 12.40, 13th) and Chatham (3-3, 13.60, 14th) – as well as those making a push from behind; their biggest dangers as of now appear to be Hackensack (3-2, 16.20, 17th), Newark Central (3-3, 18.20, 18th) and Colonia (2-4, 18.80, 19th). So, can the Patriots make it? Again, at 2-4, if they can finish strong (win out?) they have a shot, though it may be no guarantee. After a home game with Linden this Friday, they get back to back Friday night home games against Rahway and South Brunswick. Win two of three and we think they have a good chance to get in, but it’s definitely going to take some work.

NORTH GROUP 3:

• Two of the top three teams in this section are undefeated, and Cranford (5-0, 3.20 UPR) is one of them. Yes, we think the Cougars are in striking distance of the top two, but that may depend more on strength of schedule, as all these teams – including first-place Old Tappan (5-0, 1.60) and second-place Shabazz (4-1, 1.80) are very good. Let’s see how things shake out this weekend before we take a more detailed look, as there’s a lot more football to go for this trio. Cranford visits South Plainfield (4-2) this Friday, while Shabazz travels to Hudson Catholic (3-3) and Old Tappan hosts Hackensack (3-2). But while the Cougars, we believe, have a shot at finishing in the top two and getting a top seed, they will also have to look out for teams behind them, like Wayne Hills (5-1, 3.80) in fourth and West Essex (5-1, 4.60), although we think that’s all for now.
• Somerville (4-2, 10.20) currently sits in ninth, and they’re 1.60 UPR points out of the top eight, which would give them at least a first round home game. The two most within-reach teams ahead of them are eighth-place River Dell (4-2, 8.60) and West Morris (5-1, 7.00) in seventh. That might be the Pioneers’ ceiling, but they also have Holmdel (4-2, 10.40) breathing right down their neck, and Weequahic (4-1, 11.80) close behind as well. Top eight finish? Right now? We say: toss-up. The good news is, their schedule is strong: Sayreville at Brooks Field this Friday, at Hunterdon Central next week, then a Friday Cutoff Weekend game at the No. 1 team in the Bellamy & Son Paving Top Ten in Elizabeth.
• South Plainfield (4-2, 15.20) sits in 15th place, and for now, we think they are battling it out for the last two playoff spots with two other teams, both behind them, since Parsippany Hills (4-2, 12.80, 14th) is still more than two UPR points ahead. The teams the Tigers should worry about here are Mendham (3-3, 15.40, 16th) and Matawan (2-4, 15.6, 17th). For now, Paramus (3-3, 18.60, 18th) is still well enough behind South Plainfield. While this could very well come down to the final weekend, we like the Tigers’ chances; they’re a solid team. Let’s see if this week’s action brings that race into sharper focus.

As we get closer to Cutoff Weekend in New Jersey High School football, we’ll be taking a more detailed look each week at the standings, and the scenarios involving every public school in the Big Central Conference in contention for a playoff spot.

This season’s playoff coverage – both leading up to and in the postseason – is proudly presented by Dayton Collision on Route 130 in South Brunswick! That includes all our analysis over the next few weeks, as well as our LIVE Playoff Projection Show, scheduled for Saturday evening, October 23rd, and tentatively set for 6 pm.

Here’s a detailed team-by-team look at the Group 5 supersections, North and South as we head into Week 6 play this Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

NORTH GROUP 5:

• Having a fantastic season – its best start since going undefeated in 2012, when they won the first-ever North 2, Group 5 championship – Elizabeth (6-0) is very much in the running for the No. 1 seed in that section. Currently, Ramapo (4-2, 1.80 UPR) is first, followed by West Orange (5-1, 2.00), with the Minutemen right behind them (2.20 UPR). That’s not a lot of ground to make up, and Elizabeth would likely be the North 2, Group 5 top seed if they get one and finish in the top two, as the top overall seed gets to be in its natural section. West Orange has a bye this week, meaning they have two games left, against Barringer (1-4) and Montclair (2-4). But Elizabeth has three left. While a win over struggling Hillsborough (1-5) may drop them a bit in OSI, Westfield shouldn’t, and Somerville is even more formidable an opponent. If they win out, we think they have a better than 50-50 shot at a top seed.
• Piscataway (5-1, 4.00) sits in third, and the Chiefs have a solid schedule the rest of the way, too. They may not be able to make the top two on their own to earn a top seed, but they could challenge Elizabeth, especially if Piscataway wins out and the Minutemen stumble.
• Bridgewater-Raritan (5-1, 5.80) sits in eighth, and a top-seed is most likely a stretch. But they’re withing striking distance of finishing in the top four among the 16-team North 5 field, which would at least guarantee them home field through the first two rounds of the playoffs. But there’s still a lot of football to be played.
• Phillipsburg (4-2, 7.40) is tied for seventh with East Orange (3-2, 7.4). The Stateliners are idle this week, and close with Bridgewater next week (LIVE on CJSR) and Hunterdon Central on Cutoff Weekend, both at home. While the Red Devils are just 1-5, their SI is still a decent 60.93. But East Orange may have a better schedule SI-wise, so if both win out, P’burg could drop to eight, but even that is too close to call. Irvington (4-2, 8.40) is close behind, too. Then again, if someone else falters, the Stateliners, we think, could end up as high as six.
• Plainfield (2-4, 14.20) is in 14th place, but if they can finish strong, we think are likely to land a playoff berth, with the 17th place team, Livingston (3-3, 17.20) three full points behind, not an easy gap to make up. The Cards have a decent schedule that can help them, if they win: Rahway this week, Watchung Hills next and at Westfield Saturday of Cutoff Weekend.
• Perth Amboy (5-1, 14.60) is the interesting team to watch here, currently tied for 15th with Bloomfield (3-3). They have a 2.60 UPR lead over Livingston, also 3-3. We could get into a lot of scenarios here, but the OSI is the thing to watch. Currently, Amboy is at 40.54. They have generally played a weak schedule for a Group 5 school size-wise; other than Group 5 Monroe and New Brunswick and Group 4 Carteret, they have also played Group 2s Roselle, Spotswood and Metuchen. This week they are at New Providence (5-0, 77.24 SI), next week home against Johnson (3-2, 71.68) and at South Plainfield (4-2, 60.26). That may be the strongest stretch of their schedule. Our take? Win at least two of three and they’re in. Win one and they may be sweating and scoreboard watching. Drop all three, and they will extend their playoff drought to a tenth season.

SOUTH GROUP 5:

• The top two teams are defending state Group 5 champion Washington Twp. (6-0, 1.80 UPR) and Rancocas Valley (6-0, 2.00), but Old Bridge (5-1, 2.20) is very much in the thick of this race, within striking distance of both. The Knights will benefit from Monroe’s resurgence this year (the Falcons are 4-2) which has raised their SI value by nearly eight points from the preseason. There’s a lot of football left for these three, and also don’t count out Southern (5-1, 3.60) for a shot at a top seed.
• Sayreville (4-2, 8.00) is currently tied for seventh with Williamstown (4-2, 8.00), the team they beat in the 2018 South Group 5 Regional Championship at MetLife Stadium on a fumble recovery in the end zone. And there are two teams behind them within a single UPR point, so there’s no guarantee the Bombers will finish in the top eight unless they at least win out. The biggest tests will be at Somerville this weekend and home against Piscataway on Cutoff Weekend, while they have North Brunswick (1-5) on the road next week. Still too close to call here.
• Monroe (4-2, 14.60) sits in 14th, unlikely to move up far enough for a first round home game, but we think they’re a good bet to make the playoffs for the first time since 2014. First of all, there’s a tie at 16 between South Brunswick (2-4, 17.00) and Kingsway (0-6, 17.00). Problem is, there’s a two-win minimum to get into the playoffs, meaning the Dragons would need to beat two out of three; Camden (3-2) on the road this week, St. Augustine (5-1) at home next week, Atlantic City (3-3) on the road Cutoff Weekend. Frankly, we don’t see that happening. That helps both the Falcons and Vikings, because even Cherokee in 18th (1-5, 18.00) still needs another win just to be eligible. But they host Washington Twp. (6-0) this week and finish with road games at Delsea (2-4) and Shawnee (5-1). Maybe they beat Delsea, but it may not be enough.
• Edison (2-4, 19.00) is likely a long shot, but if they can beat Franklin on the road this weekend and take one of the last two against St. Thomas Aquinas (3-3) at home or Rahway (5-1) on the road Cutoff Weekend, they may be close enough to have a shot, even though they may need some help from the Vikings.