It’s Cutoff Weekend in New Jersey, and with just under a half-dozen Thursday night games in the books, we’re taking a section-by-section look at every Big Central team in the playoff hunt.

Our pre-Cutoff analysis estimates 22 BCC squads have unofficially clinched a playoff berth, with eleven more still on the bubble.

You can find all our unofficial standings here.

This season’s playoff coverage – both leading up to and in the postseason – is proudly presented by Dayton Collision on Route 130 in South Brunswick! That includes all our analysis today, as well as our LIVE Playoff Projection Show, scheduled for Saturday at 6 pm with Mike Pavlichko and Marcus Borden.

NORTH GROUP 1:

• We’ll start with Dayton (6-2), which has a big one against Manville (5-3) Friday night. With a win and some help via losses from Wallkill Valley, Wood-Ridge/Midland Park and New Milford, they could move up into the top eight, but that might also be a stretch on the help side of things. More likely, the Bulldogs finish in the bottom eight, but there are a lot of middle-of-the-pack teams in a tight bunch, so any result could really reshuffle the bunch. Plus, there are a lot of wild swings in power point and OSI average – like Mountain Lakes in the middle of a bunch of teams around a 10-12 power point average, while they’re below nine, so there could be some teams not even in the picture right now that affect the Bulldogs. Ultimately, we think they are most likely to be a bottom eight team, regardless of what they do against the Mustangs; they’re in either way, and we expect them to start on the road.
• Belvidere (7-1) comes into the day at No. 11, with a big game at Delaware Valley (6-2) Friday night. A win can only help them so much, though, even with losses by the teams around them. It looks like their ceiling might be nine, which means they will be starting off the playoffs on the road. A loss, and we think the best they could do is mid-range of the bottom eight, so the County Seaters are in, it’s just a matter of where they will play next week.

• Roselle Park (4-4) enters the weekend at 17, but has Roselle (0-7) on the road Friday. Again, those games have to come somewhere on the schedule, but often get outsized attention this week. Let’s start with just a win, and no other games factored in, and that keeps the Panthers at 17. We’ve thrown every L up on the board we could – for Kinnelon, Verona, Park Ridge and Hawthorne, as well as Glen Ridge, Kittatinny, Brearley and Mountain Lakes, and we don’t see it happening. Maybe there’s a path somewhere, but it looks like Roselle Park is out.
• But what about Brearley? While the Bears enter the week further back, in 20th, it’s a tight pack there, and if they can beat North Plainfield (4-4) at Krasuche Field Friday night, they could get in, as the Canucks’ four wins allow the Bears more movement than Roselle Park in this situation. Two ways this can go: win, get some help and get in, lose and they’re out.

It’s Cutoff Weekend in New Jersey, and with just under a half-dozen Thursday night games in the books, we’re taking a section-by-section look at every Big Central team in the playoff hunt.

Our pre-Cutoff analysis estimates 22 BCC squads have unofficially clinched a playoff berth, with eleven more still on the bubble.

You can find all our unofficial standings here.

This season’s playoff coverage – both leading up to and in the postseason – is proudly presented by Dayton Collision on Route 130 in South Brunswick! That includes all our analysis today, as well as our LIVE Playoff Projection Show, scheduled for Saturday at 6 pm with Mike Pavlichko and Marcus Borden.

SOUTH GROUP 2:

• Scheduling gets a lot of attention at the end of the regular season, and whether it’ll help or hurt you, but in reality, a game against a winless team could come at any time of the year; it’s just more noticeable when it happens on Cutoff Weekend. Such is the case for A.L. Johnson (5-2), which has JFK (0-8) this week, but could even drop with a win. Luckily, the margin won’t affect the outcome, just wins and losses. The Crusaders should win this game, but if they don’t, Raritan and Overbrook already lost, and we think they drop no lower – or at least, not much lower – than 13. They’re in, and they’ll be in the bottom eight either way, which means they should start on the road.
• Governor Livingston (4-4) started off the week at 18, moving up to 17 after getting a big hand from Neptune (2-7), which knocked off Raritan (4-5) at home Thursday night. The Highlanders may have been able to get in with a win over New Providence (6-1) Friday night, but this certainly helps boost not only their chances, but their potential standing. It looks like Governor Livingston gets in with a win, but a loss likely keeps them out, so this is another win-or-go-home game. But if they do win, and things break the right way, including an A.L. Johnson loss, they could end up as high as 12.

It’s Cutoff Weekend in New Jersey, and with just under a half-dozen Thursday night games in the books, we’re taking a section-by-section look at every Big Central team in the playoff hunt.

Our pre-Cutoff analysis estimates 22 BCC squads have unofficially clinched a playoff berth, with eleven more still on the bubble.

You can find all our unofficial standings here.

This season’s playoff coverage – both leading up to and in the postseason – is proudly presented by Dayton Collision on Route 130 in South Brunswick! That includes all our analysis today, as well as our LIVE Playoff Projection Show, scheduled for Saturday at 6 pm with Mike Pavlichko and Marcus Borden.

NORTH GROUP 2:

• Bernards (6-2) and New Providence (6-1) sit seventh and eighth at the moment, and both can make moves up, but the question is how much? The Mountaineers travel to Summit (6-2) Saturday while the Pioneers welcome in neighbor Governor Livingston (4-4), which will be playing for a playoff berth in the South 2 supersection, helped out by a huge upset in the Shore Conference Thursday night, with Neptune beating Raritan. We think Bernards, with a win and losses by everyone above them, has a ceiling of three. More likely, they at least finish in the top four with a win, but they could finish as low as six if they beat the Hilltoppers, depending on what teams around them do, so there will be a good deal of scoreboard watching tonight. Either way, they look like a top eight finished. In that scenario, where Bernards gets no help, the same can be said for New Providence, which could go as high as seven with a win, or fall back to nine, which would start them on the road. But with Governor Livingston at .500, their upside as a win is not as good. They can finish in the top eight, but may need some help. We’ll get a much clearer picture after Friday night.

• The only other team even in the running here is Hillside (7-1), which after Week 5 was still in 19th place, despite a 5-1 record. But they have pulled up as of late, especially after a big win over Manville last week. They get the undefeated Cougars (7-0) of Cranford on the road Friday night, and Cranford will be playing not just for an unblemished regular season, but a top-seed in the playoffs, so there’s a lot at stake here. How high can Hillside go? At No. 13 now, we think their range is a +/-2, meaning anywhere from 11 to 15. They can’t get into the top eight, so they’ll open on the road, but they appear to have clinched and should get in even with a loss, helped out by Cranford’s seven wins and a high SI value.

It’s Cutoff Weekend in New Jersey, and with just under a half-dozen Thursday night games in the books, we’re taking a section-by-section look at every Big Central team in the playoff hunt.

Our pre-Cutoff analysis estimates 22 BCC squads have unofficially clinched a playoff berth, with eleven more still on the bubble.

You can find all our unofficial standings here.

This season’s playoff coverage – both leading up to and in the postseason – is proudly presented by Dayton Collision on Route 130 in South Brunswick! That includes all our analysis today, as well as our LIVE Playoff Projection Show, scheduled for Saturday at 6 pm with Mike Pavlichko and Marcus Borden.

NORTH GROUP 3:

• Undefeated Cranford (7-0) is still well in the running for a top-two finish, and therefore, one of the top two seeds. It helps they have Hillside (7-1) with an SI over 80, but that of course means they need to win the game. The teams have split the last two years, with the Comets winning last season, but this year’s Cougars are much improved. Even with an Old Tappan loss this weekend (they’re also undefeated at 7-0) Cranford can get a top seed, regardless of whether the two other teams currently ahead of them – West Essex and Wayne Hills, both 7-1 – win this weekend. Essentially, whether Cranford gets a top seed or not appears all up to them; win and they get it. But the nice part about playing Hillside is that even with a loss, and wins by teams behind them like Shabazz, River Dell and Holmdel, we believe Cranford will finish in the top four, meaning they are guaranteed home field advantage through at least the sectional semifinals. A stroke of scheduling here as Cranford really sitting pretty.
• How high can Somerville (5-3) go? They’re in a similar situation to Cranford, as the Pioneers visit Elizabeth (8-0) Friday night. Follow Alec Crouthamel on Twitter for updates. A win could bump them as high as eight, giving Somerville a first-round home game. And yes, that’s giving everyone around them wins. While, on paper this game may look like it favors the Minutemen, who have been scoring a shade over 40 points per game, Somerville can still play offense with the best of them, and in a free-wheeling game, anything can happen. A loss, and they likely fall into the 12/13 range, the difference between a six- or a seven-seed once they go into their section.

• It also looks like South Plainfield (4-4) is in full control of where it lands. A win over Perth Amboy (6-2) at Jost Field Friday night should get the Tigers in, even projecting wins for everyone around them, thanks to the Panthers’ record and a much-improved SI value from the beginning of the season; they rose 24.23 points to a 66.70 since the start of the year. A loss and it looks like the Tigers are out, even with a lot of help. We’ll call this an all-or-nothing game for South Plainfield.

It’s Cutoff Weekend in New Jersey, and with just under a half-dozen Thursday night games in the books, we’re taking a section-by-section look at every Big Central team in the playoff hunt.

Our pre-Cutoff analysis estimates 22 BCC squads have unofficially clinched a playoff berth, with eleven more still on the bubble.

You can find all our unofficial standings here.

This season’s playoff coverage – both leading up to and in the postseason – is proudly presented by Dayton Collision on Route 130 in South Brunswick! That includes all our analysis today, as well as our LIVE Playoff Projection Show, scheduled for Saturday at 6 pm with Mike Pavlichko and Marcus Borden.

NORTH GROUP 4:

• Starting with fifth-place Rahway (7-1), a win for the Indians over Edison (2-6) appears to give them a ceiling of three, so that means they could make it into the top four, which would guarantee home games at least through the sectional semifinals, but they would also need some help to get there, including losses by Ridge (to Old Bridge at home), Northern Highlands and Morris Knolls. Middletown North the solid No. 1 overall, regardless of a win or loss this weekend, but Roxbury is not assured of the No. 2. We also ran a couple of scenarios, and it appears for now Rahway could even get a four-seed should Ridge and Northern Northern Highland win, but Morris Knolls loses.
• Ridge (5-2) looks like its ceiling also is a little higher with a win at home over Old Bridge (7-1) Friday night, even if everyone around them loses. That’s because the Knights – with seven wins and a higher SI than Edison – is a bigger prize for the Red Devils this weekend. That’s going to be one heck of a matchup at Lee Field Friday night.
• Can either drop out of the top eight? We don’t think so. Anything that knocks Ridge or Rahway down into the bottom eight 1) would be of their own doing, as they certainly stay in the top eight with wins and 2) would probably include some doomsday scenario of everyone else in the field winning, and there are some tough games out there. So, we think that’s very unlikely, and Rahway and Ridge will open up at home regardless of this weekend’s outcomes.

• Summit (6-2) appears to have a chance of finishing as high as No. 7 if they can get losses by teams above them, and even behind them, like Garfield out of the NJIC. The Hilltoppers start the day at No. 11, however, so they will need a lot go go their way, in addition to the tough task of beating Bernards (6-2) this Saturday afternoon at Tatlock Field. The Mountaineers have won the last two matchups in this series, in 2023 and 2024. We’d lean about 60-40 in the direction of a bottom eight seed for Summit, mainly due to them needing a lot to go right around them to avoid it. Frankly, this is too soon to call still.
• Montgomery (5-3) sits in 13th, and we believe the Cougars are safe, even if they lose to Hillsborough (1-7) in the “Carty Bowl” Friday night in Skillman. Woodbridge (5-3), however, with a loss to Franklin (3-5) at home could potentially miss out if a disaster scenario with everyone else around them winning unfolds. But more likely than not, they get in. Neither has a shot at moving up to a top eight seed, so these two are essentially destined to start the playoffs on the road, it’s just a matter of where and in which bracket.
• Watchung Hills (4-4) and Carteret (4-4) both have good shots to make the field of 16 if they win this weekend. We think they are “win and in” or at least “win and very likely in” this weekend. The Warriors have a big prize in Bridgewater-Raritan (6-2), but will have to face the Panthers on the road, while the Ramblers host Monroe (4-4).
• The big question here is can Colonia (2-5) make it? The Patriots have South Brunswick (3-5) on the blue turf Friday night. A win alone won’t do it, only nudging them up one spot from 19 to 18, and it doesn’t look like there’s a path to getting in, even with help.

It’s Cutoff Weekend in New Jersey, and with just under a half-dozen Thursday night games in the books, we’re taking a section-by-section look at every Big Central team in the playoff hunt.

Our pre-Cutoff analysis estimates 22 BCC squads have unofficially clinched a playoff berth, with eleven more still on the bubble.

You can find all our unofficial standings here.

This season’s playoff coverage – both leading up to and in the postseason – is proudly presented by Dayton Collision on Route 130 in South Brunswick! That includes all our analysis today, as well as our LIVE Playoff Projection Show, scheduled for Saturday at 6 pm with Mike Pavlichko and Marcus Borden.

SOUTH GROUP 5:

• Old Bridge (7-1) enters the weekend at third, behind Washington Twp. at No. 1 and Rancocas Valley at No. 2, both 8-0 on the season. And the good news for the Knights is that neither has any cupcakes this weekend, but they have to win to have a crack at the top two; they can’t back in, and they have a very tough game at Ridge (5-2) Friday night.. The Minutemen have the tougher of the two other matchups, by far, as they play at St. Augustine (7-1) while the Red Devils host Burlington Twp. (4-4) Friday night. Washington Twp. hasn’t lost a game in two seasons, and even a loss to the Hermits probably doesn’t even bump them down due to their record and high SI value. Here’s what it looks like Old Bridge needs for a top seed: a win, a loss by Rancocas Valley (Washington Twp. is irrelevant), and also Toms River North. Southern – which couldn’t displace Old Bridge on a win alone – could get boosted into the two spot, knocking the Knights down to three, with TRN sitting in fourth. A Sayreville win (they sit in sixth entering Friday) doesn’t seem to hurt Old Bridge, which beat the Bombers earlier this season.
• Sayreville (6-2) seems to be somewhat limited here. The Bombers – who play host to Piscataway (7-1) in the Bellamy & Son Paving Big Central Game of the Week Friday night at 7 – appear to have a ceiling of sixth place, even in everyone above them (regardless of what Washington Twp. does) loses; that would include Old Bridge, Rancocas Valley, Southern and Toms River North. They still might need some help. As for a loss by the Bombers, due to the Chiefs’ high SI and seven wins, we think Sayreville holds on to a top-eight seed. In fact, they appear now to be locked in at either six or seven, one of the more definitive positions this weekend.

• Monroe (4-4) at Carteret (4-4) Friday night is a tough one for the Falcons, and it may be do-or-die. Win, and we think they’re in, and could be as high as 13. A loss and they may be out. Remember, Kingsway is ineligible at 0-8 no matter what they do this weekend; two is the minimum number of wins required by the NJSIAA for playoff qualification. But that may not be enough to help Monroe should they lose.
• Can South Brunswick (3-5) get in? Assuming no other games were played, the Vikings make it to 18 with a win, but that’s really 17 when you take out Kingsway. While they own a tiebreaker over Monroe, it’s highly unlikely they’ll end up in such an order at 16 and 17 overall, so that doesn’t appear to be a route in for the South Brunswick. A Trenton (4-4) loss at Ewing (5-3) is plausible, and that could help, getting them to 16 after taking out Kingsway. Cherokee already lost Thursday, so they can’t get any more help from them. But a loss by Monroe would give South Brunswick even a bigger boost, perhaps as high as 14 overall. So, yes, they are very much alive.
• …And in that scenario, Hillsborough (1-7) may have shot, but they’ll have to beat Montgomery (5-3) on the road in the “Carty Bowl” Friday night. That would get them to the minimum two wins, and also to 17 before taking out Kingsway, meaning they would be the last team in. But they need Monroe and Trenton losses. A South Brunswick loss also may help. The Raiders need to win and hope for the best.
• With a lot of help, Edison (2-5) could also make it, should they knock off Rahway (7-1) on the road this week. But even more challenging than that may be all the scenarios they would need – not taken individually, necessarily, but as a whole. The Eagles face a “win and need the stars to align” situation here.

It’s Cutoff Weekend in New Jersey, and with just under a half-dozen Thursday night games in the books, we’re taking a section-by-section look at every Big Central team in the playoff hunt.

Our pre-Cutoff analysis estimates 22 BCC squads have unofficially clinched a playoff berth, with eleven more still on the bubble.

You can find all our unofficial standings here.

This season’s playoff coverage – both leading up to and in the postseason – is proudly presented by Dayton Collision on Route 130 in South Brunswick! That includes all our analysis today, as well as our LIVE Playoff Projection Show, scheduled for Saturday at 6 pm with Mike Pavlichko and Marcus Borden.

NORTH GROUP 5:

• Elizabeth (7-0) has a shot at a top seed, if they can beat Somerville (5-3) Friday night at Williams Field. Even though West Orange and Ramapo are in the top two spots, wins by them appear to be irrelevant. But the Minutemen may want to keep an ear on our Bellamy & Son Paving Big Central Game of the Week, which features Piscataway at Sayreville. We believe Elizabeth needs a Piscataway loss to get that overall top seed. Should Elizabeth lose, they likely finish as low as five.
• Piscataway (7-1) also has a crack at that top seed with a win at Sayrveille (6-2) Friday night (LIVE at 7 pm on CJSR). In fact, we believe they can still get a top seed even if a number of other teams win, such as Ramapo, West Orange, East Orange, Phillipsburg, Bridgewater and Irvington come out victorious this weekend, even Elizabeth.
• Could both get top seeds? Yes, we think if everyone at the top of the field wins this weekend – including Piscataway and Elizabeth, it looks like the Chiefs at No. 1 and the Minutemen at No. 2. As for a top four finish, that is very much up in the air with a lot of possibilities, but likely both need at least a win to get there.

• Phillipsburg (5-2) could get the overall No. 1 seed, but would likely need losses by West Orange, Elizabeth, Piscataway and Ramapo, or some combination of at least three of those. It’s a longshot, and the Stateliners – even with a win – are hurt by having one-win Hunterdon Central at Maloney Friday night.
• Bridgewater-Raritan (6-2) appears to have a ceiling of seventh overall in the field of 16, but that’s if everyone ahead of them loses (Passaic Tech won Friday night over Columbia, which hurt them a bit). But that’s an unlikely scenario. Bottom line: The defending North 2, Group 5 champion Panthers (if that’s where they end up) will need to beat Watchung Hills (4-4) Friday night and need some help to earn a first-round home game.
• Perth Amboy (6-2) visits South Plainfield (4-4) Friday night, but we think the Panthers are a bottom eight team here, and will start the playoffs on the road. Too many scenarios here with some tightly packed teams to know where they end up yet, however.

• Union (5-3) will be in, but a game at Linden (3-4) Friday night doesn’t look like it’s going to move the needle. We project a mid-bottom eight finish, and a first round road game.
• Franklin (3-5) and Linden (3-4) appear to control their own fates. A win for the Warriors at Woodbridge (5-3) would appear to get them in, regardless of what anyone else does. A Passaic win doesn’t appear to bump them, Livingston already won at Bloomfield Thursday evening. Same for the Tigers, we think they are most likely a “win and in” team here, unless something wacky happens, and it could.
• Plainfield (2-6) appears too far gone to get in, at least without some help. It looks like a win, and losses by Franklin and Linden, still only get them to 17, and they’re 1.4 UPR back, a lot to make up with help, and they only have a tiebreaker over Linden.

Cutoff Weekend is here, and with just under two-dozen games involving playoff-eligible teams (there were a number of Super Football Conference Ivies playing) in action Thursday night, we’ve got an update on where things stand.

Scores don’t matter this week for Strength Index, which is locked in to the numbers after Week 7. All that matters is who won, who lost, and what SI and power points they pick up, leading to their UPR score.

Playoff coverage is brought to you by Dayton Collision, Route 130 in South Brunswick!

We’ll have a deep-dive analysis of all the playoff scenarios for Big Central teams in the running starting Friday morning on Central Jersey Sports Radio and continuing throughout the day, with another update late Friday evening/early Saturday morning after Friday night’s results come in.

We’ll have some updated scenarios for BCC schools later Saturday morning, then tune in to our “Playoff Projection Show” presented by Dayton Collision at 6 pm on cjsportsradio.com as Mike Pavlichko is joined live in studio by analyst Marcus Borden. We’ll also be joined by several coaches, and close the night with special guest Simeon Pincus of MyCentralJersey.com.

In the standings below, we have not executed any tiebreakers nor done any head-to-head comparisons. Since the standings may change wildly tomorrow – we’ve never been a fan of “if the playoffs started today” because they don’t! – we’ll look at these in our analysis and perform all those calculations before we make our projections on Saturday night.

Here are the UNOFFICIAL standings for all ten public supersections: