Every year, the NJSIAA seems to tweak the playoff formula a little bit, and this year was no exception. And we’re sure many of you have questions about how the playoff seeding actually works.

Actually, we know. Because we’ve been getting questions from coaches and fans all around the state the last couple of weeks.

The biggest change is the “geographic” model of seeding teams has been scrapped (again) and we’re back to snaking, which has its pros and cons. It balances out the sections within each North and South Supersection, but it also can lead to long travel or teams in sections with names that don’t match their geography – like how Old Bridge faced Washington Township, which is south of Philadelphia – in last season’s Central Jersey Group 5 championship game.

With that we’ve put together a brief primer on the basics of playoff seeding. So, here are the key points.

Who qualifies?

There are ten public school “supersections” that split each group into North and South Jersey.

The top 16 teams in each supersection according to the NJ UPR rating qualify for the playoffs, with those teams divided into two traditional sections of eight. (Further down, we’ll explain a few caveats to the seeding.)

This year, the brackets are “snaked” to balance out the strength. That means in the overall field of sixteen, they are broken up this way, then seeded one through eight in each section.

• Section A: Overall seeds 1, 4, 5, 8, 9, 12, 13, 16
• Section B: Overall seeds 2, 3, 6, 7, 10, 11, 14, 15

Once that’s done, the section with the overall No. 1 will play in a section named after its typical natural section. So, if it’s in North, they would go in either North 1 or North 2, while the overall No. 2 – no matter what their section – would be in the other. In the South, it would be Central or South.

So, if in North 5, it were Elizabeth at No. 1 and Piscataway at No. 2 – both typically North Jersey, Section 2 schools – Elizabeth would be the North Jersey, Section 2 top seed, and Piscataway would be the North Jersey, Section 1 top seed, even though Piscataway is further South than Elizabeth.

Are there exceptions?

Yes. Any team that goes undefeated automatically qualifies for the playoffs. They would bump the last team in the field. So a team at 17 or 18 that’s 8-0 would bump the 16th team out.

In addition, two wins is required to be playoff eligible. (We think it should be four, or at least 3-5, but not 3-6, but that’s a debate for another day.) If there’s a team in the top 16 with no wins, or zero wins (such as Kingsway, which is 0-8 this year, but sitting as high as 13th place at the moment) they get bumped in favor of the next team up at 17, 18 or the next team to have met the two-win minimum.

In a real-life example, Trenton and Lenape are tied for 16th in the section. So if the playoffs ended today, since Trenton beat Lenape on October 9, Trenton becomes the 16, Lenape the 17, but Lenape gets in because Kingsway would automatically be out.

What is the NJ UPR?

First used in the 2018 season, the UPR is the United Power Ranking; it was called that as it was considered a consensus among the different regions of the state, which typically have differing interests for their teams. It uses two metrics: power points and OSI, or Opponent Strength Index.

Power Points

Power points are mostly like the typical formula we all know that’s been in use since 1975, one year after the NJSIAA held its first ever “playoffs” – which were initially meant to break ties for sectional titles according to an antiquated point system.

Most playoffs were just two teams whose ratings were similar playing to break a tie. If the best team was light years ahead of the other, champions were declared outright by the NJSIAA. Now, of course, 160 public schools make the playoffs each year, and more in the non-publics.

Teams get 6 quality points for beating an opponent, 3 for a tie, none for a loss. Then, they get “residuals,” which are a strength component based on an opponent’s win total. You get 3 points for each win by a team you beat, 1.5 for each win by a team you tied, and 1 point for each win by a team you lost to. (FYI: For those who remember it, the old rule that you don’t get a residual for the game in which your opponent beat you quietly disappeared from the regulations several years ago.) This is essentially a strenght-of-schedule component rewarding teams for playing opponents with more wins.

Teams also used to get Group Points for a win, equivalent to the size of the school, 1 through 5. But that was removed from the equation two years ago.

There are limits to residuals, however. Only an opponent’s first seven games count toward residuals. So if you beat a 6-2 team, but that sixth win came in game eight, you only get 15 residuals, three each for the first five wins through seven total games played. (This is to be fair for teams whose opponents don’t play their last game until Thanksgiving, and even then, might only play eight games.)

Additionally, the state caps the number of residual points at 18. So beating an 8-0 team doesn’t earn 24 residuals; you’d earn 18.

In the supersection standings, teams are ranked 1 through 32 (or however many teams there are) by power point average. We’ll come back to that number in a bit.

OSI (Opponent Strength Index)

This is another strength of schedule component. Each team has a Strength index value that gets tracked from Game 1 through the end of the playoffs. Those values go up or down based on how a team did in a game relative to another team’s rating. We won’t get into how that’s derived (Google it or see one of our previous stories), but how is it translated to OSI?

Say you play a team and their SI value is 80. You would get 100% of that value for a win, half for a loss, and three quarters for a tie. So you’d get 80 points for a win, 60 for a tie and 40 for a loss.

Those numbers of all your opponents are averaged, and the teams ranked 1-32 by OSI average. We’ll come back to that number as well.

What does it mean that SI is “locked in” this week?

Good question. Strength Index is calculated all year long right through the playoffs. But to make the process of seeding more predictable and easier to figure out on Cutoff Weekend – for teams and media alike – the numbers are locked in after Week 7 games. So this week, what you see is what you get in terms of SI value. Out-of-state SI values will be updated this week as well.

What about multipliers?

Multipliers are non-public schools the state deems strong enough that a team who loses to them should get an extra bump. There are four tiers. Teams get the normal value for a win, but for a loss to a Tier A team, you’d get 80% of the SI value, Tier B is 75% and Tiers C and D are 70%.

Why two at the same rate? Any A, B or C multiplier that loses to a non-multiplier gets knocked down to the D category. And anyone in the D category – whether they started or moved there – who loses to a non-multiplier loses that status entirely that season. In essence, an A, B or C would have to lose twice to lose multiplier status. A Tier D team would only have to lose once.

Notable: loss of “multiplier” status has no effect on that former multiplier, it only pertains to that team’s value to its opponents, in terms of SI.

So how do we get the UPR?

The UPR weighs OSI at 60% of the formula and power points 40%. So to get a UPR rating, multiply the power point rank – not the value itself – by 0.4. Multiply the OSI rank by 0.6. So if a team is first in both categories, you’d take 1 x 0.4 and add to 1 x 0.6, and you’d get one.

Now, take a team first in power points but second in OSI. You’d get 1 x 0.4 plus 2 x 0.6, which is 0.4 + 1.2, giving you a 1.6 UPR. Take the reverse, a team in second in power points but first in OSI. That would be 2 x 0.4 plus 1 x 0.6 or 0.8 + 0.6 or 1.4. The lower number is better, so the team first in OSI is above the team lower in OSI (since OSI is worth more, 60% to 40% for power points).

How does my team move up or down in the UPR standings?

Since lower numbers are better in terms of UPR (1 being the highest, the overall top team in a section) the goal to climb in the rankings is to “lose” UPR points. That can be done through a mix of climbing in the rankings of power points and OSI.

But Here’s where it gets tricky. If you’re in 17th and need to get to 16th to make the playoffs, and that team is rated a 16 and you’re a 17, you can’t just lose UPR points. You have to go up in either metric.

Say your UPR is 12, and you climb one spot in power point rank, you’d be an 11.6. If you also climbed one spot on OSI rank, you’d be an 11. If you climbed one spot in power point rank from a 12 UPR, but went down one OSI rank, you’d shed 0.4 points, but gain 0.6 points and would be an 12.2 UPR.

When trying to “catch” a team above you, think of a Magic Number in baseball to clinch the American League East. If the Yankees’ Magic Number is 10 over the Red Sox, that means any combination of Yankee wins and Boston losses equaling ten gives them the pennant.

So, if your UPR is 17 and you need to jump a team with a 16 UPR, any combination of power point or OSI moves needs to total more than 1.0 to jump them. Since power points are worth 0.4 each jump, and OSI 0.6, one in each would only be 1.0 and only get you a tie. So you might need two power point jumps and one OSI jump (0.8 + 0.6) so you’d lose 1.4 UPR points and now be ahead of the team with a 16 UPR at 15.6 (17 minus 1.4).

Where it gets even trickier is, not every team has the same rating in each category. Say you’re 16, and happen to be 16 in both. The team above you could be 12th in power points but 18th in OSI. So, you need to find the teams right above you in power points and the teams right above you in OSI to see if you can shed points that way. The team right above you in UPR may not be the team you’re gunning for!

Seeding adjustments

Once all the games are done on Cutoff Weekend, seeding can begin. The first thing to do is to go through and break any UPR ties. The order of the tiebreakers is:

• Head-to-Head
• Common Opponents
• OSI rank
• Power Points rank
• Coin Flip

Note that since OSI values are reported down to two decimal points, it is very rare a tie-breaker will go past OSI, but it is possible.

Then, a top-down, head-to-head check is performed. Did team 2 beat team 1? If so, Team 2 moves up and becomes No. 1. Now, did Team 3 beat the new Team 2? No, we move to the next one, did Team 4 beat Team 3? And so on down the list. It’s possible to jump multiple teams – it’s happened before – as long as the team is directly in front of you. For example, if Team 7 beat Team 6, they move up, and now are behind Team 5. If they beat Team 5, they move up again until you find a team above them they did not beat.

However, If Team 7 beat Team 5, but did not beat Team 6, they can’t jump Team 5. They could only jump them if they beat Team 6 and move into that spot.

This is performed all the way down to Team 17. If they beat 16, Team 17 gets in and Team 16 is out. This is happens at least once every couple of years.

Disqualifications and Opt-Outs

Opt-outs are rare in public brackets, but it could happen. But disqualifications happen at least once or twice a year. Teams reaching three disqualifications in a season (generally ejections) before the Cutoff are ineligible for the playoffs. This year, Lindenwold and Buena are on that non-eligible list due to a brawl at a game that resulted in nine Lindenwold players and 15 from Buena getting ejected.

The

While those two known ineligible teams would not have made the playoffs anyway, they are still calculated in power points, OSI and UPR. So if anyone finishes in the top 16, they are simply taken out, and the next team from the supersection will be seeded.

When does the seeding come out?

All games need to be completed first, and notable is that this Saturday, there are two late game on the schedule.

Paramus and Lincoln play at Caven Point in Jersey City at 4 pm, a late start due to unavailability of fields. Lincoln in the running – 27th out of 27 in North Group 3 – but Paramus is very much a bubble team at 16 in the standings.

Then, in South Jersey, Woodbury visits Buena at 6 pm. We’ve already been through Buena being playoff-ineligible due to DQs, but Woodbury also is a bubble team, now sitting at 17th in South Group 1. And with Big Central teams Manville at 15 and South Hunterdon at 18 (though the Eagles may already be eliminated), that game could very well determine who the Mustangs play in the opening round, or even if they will qualify.

Will Central Jersey Sports Radio share its projections?

What do you think? Of course!

We’ll have our live “2026 Playoff Projection Show” at 6 pm Saturday, presented by Dayton Collision in South Brunswick. We’ll go through all 20 public school playoff sections in all five groups, with all 160 teams, break it down with host Mike Pavlichko and analyst Marcus Borden, and be joined by multiple coaches on the show. Click here to listen.

How will we handle South 1, where we have Woodbury in the running? First, we’ll see how Friday goes to see if they even still have a shot after everyone else plays. We’ll see how the game goes, as we usually start with Group 5 and get to Group 1 at least an hour into the show. We’ll have two sets of brackets ready to go, one if Woodbury wins and one if they lose. And it’s entirely possible they may be locked into a spot regardless of the outcome of the game.

When do the official seeds come out?

The NJSIAA will seed the tournament Sunday morning. Timing depends on how complicated they are, in terms of tiebreakers, weeding out the ineligible teams, whether there needs to be a coin-toss to break ties (if all the tiebreakers are exhausted), etc. Once released, the bracket won’t become fully “official” until Monday at noon.

Central Jersey Sports Radio will likely annoucne its first round playoff coverage Tuesday afternoon.

With Thursday and Friday Week 7 play in the books, Central Jersey Sports Radio is taking a quick look at movement in the playoff standings based on results so far.

There are many Saturday games on the schedule that will change the standings again heading into Cutoff Weekend next weekend, although things will be a lot simpler once the Strength Index values lock in after this week.

You can find all our unofficial standings here.

This season’s playoff coverage – both leading up to and in the postseason – is proudly presented by Dayton Collision on Route 130 in South Brunswick! That includes all our analysis over the next few weeks, as well as our LIVE Playoff Projection Show, scheduled for Saturday evening, October 23rd, and tentatively set for 6 pm.

Below is a breakdown of Week 7 movement after Friday in the North and South Group 1 Supersections.

NORTH GROUP 1:

• No one is near a top seed in North 1, and it’s still Cedar Grove (6-1) and Newton (8-0) at the top, but Dayton (6-2) made a big splash with Friday night’s 28-20 home win over previously unbeaten Highland Park. The Bulldogs made a huge leap from No. 15 to No. 9 in the standings. The question is, with a home game next week against a very strong Manville team (5-3), can they go higher? They are 2.0 UPR points behind No. 8 Wallkill Valley (8-0) and 2.2 behind New Milford (5-2). Wallkill has Lenape Valley (4-4, certainly fewer residuals on the line there) and New Milford visits St. Mary (3-4, same there), both next Saturday. We’re going to see how the rest of this weekend sorts out before we dig deeper.
• Belvidere (7-1) holds at eleven after a 21-8 win Friday night over North Warren. The County Seaters – who have won seven straight since dropping their season opener – have a big one at home next Saturday against Delaware Valley (6-2), they could potentially get them near or into the top eight, depending on how much other help they can get. More likely they finish bottom eight and start the playoffs on the road, but there’s a chance they can get in the top half of the field of 16 here. Let’s see if anything else this weekend affects the race before we make a more precise call.
• Brearley (5-3) dropped a 38-35 decision Thursday to Roselle Park (4-4), and that has put the Panthers atop the Bears now, moving them up from 21, with both still just out of the playoff picture. Roselle Park is two full UPR points out, but a trip to Roselle (0-7) next week isn’t going to help them much, even with a win, so they may need help from Hawthorne (4-3, 16th) or Park Ridge (4-4, 15th) to get in, but we think it’s a long shot. As for the Bears, they are 18th and 2.4 UPR points behind No. 16 Hawthorne. North Plainfield (4-4) is next up on the road Friday night. Should the Bears win, they may have a shot, they may need some help, but we think they have a better chance, on paper, should both win, of getting in.

SOUTH GROUP 1:

• Schalick (8-0) jumped Paulsboro (5-2) into the No. 1 spot, as both teams won Friday night and flip-flopped, but there was no change for Delaware Valley (6-2), which shutout North Plainfield in Alexandria Friday night. The Terriers shrunk their UPR to 6.0, and shrunk their deficit to get into the top eight from 1.6 to just 0.2 UPR points, where they trail fourth-place Audubon (4-2). We think that’s the only top four team they can catch, and they have Bishop Eustace (4-4) next week, while Del Val has a trip to Belvidere (7-1). We think the Terriers have a good shot to jump Audubon, even if both win next week.
• Highland Park (7-1) took its first loss of the season Friday night, falling 28-20 at Dayton, but they only dropped two spots and stay in the top eight, which gives them a guarantee of a first-round playoff home game. The Owls close with a home game against Metuchen (3-4) next Friday night, but their lead to stay in the top eight is tenuous at the moment, with Burlington City (3-4) and Penns Grove (3-4) both having 9.2 UPRs, and just 0.2 behind Highland Park. Toss-up, for now.
• Manville (5-3) could have made up ground with a win over Hillside (7-1) Friday night, but the loss didn’t hurt them either since they were such a strong opponent. The Mustangs fell a spot to 13, and are likely a mid-bottom eight playoff team. But they will be in.
• South Hunterdon (4-3) remains in 19th, so no movement yet. But as we’ve said before, even a sweep of their last two games Saturday against Dunellen (1-5) or next Friday at Lyndhurst (2-6) won’t help them, and even the Golden Bears’ second win of the season won’t help because it was their eighth game, and residuals only count from an opponent’s first seven. The Eagles are likely out, barring a wacky scenario.

With Thursday and Friday Week 7 play in the books, Central Jersey Sports Radio is taking a quick look at movement in the playoff standings based on results so far.

There are many Saturday games on the schedule that will change the standings again heading into Cutoff Weekend next weekend, although things will be a lot simpler once the Strength Index values lock in after this week.

You can find all our unofficial standings here.

This season’s playoff coverage – both leading up to and in the postseason – is proudly presented by Dayton Collision on Route 130 in South Brunswick! That includes all our analysis over the next few weeks, as well as our LIVE Playoff Projection Show, scheduled for Saturday evening, October 23rd, and tentatively set for 6 pm.

Below is a breakdown of Week 7 movement after Friday in the North and South Group 2 Supersections.

NORTH GROUP 2:

• A Hoboken (7-1) win jumped the Red Wings up into the No. 1 spot overall, dethroning Westwood after they lost Friday night; Caldwell (6-0) remains in second, pending today’s game at Madison. Bernards (6-2) beat JFK Friday night, 42-20, but fell one spot from six to seven, so we think the Mountaineers likely remain in the top eight, but won’t move into the top four, regardless of what they do next Saturday in their Cutoff Weekend game at Summit.
• New Providence (6-1) rebounded from its first loss of the season last week to win 34-7 at Spotswood Friday night, and bumped up in the process from nine to eight. They have a 1.6 UPR lead over High Point (7-1). Next week, the Pioneers have Governor Livingston (3-4) while High Point has Vernon (5-3), a game that’s worth more in residuals, but which may also be more difficult. We’ll see if the Pioneers can keep them at bay.
• Hillside (7-1) edged up one spot from 14 to 13 after a 54-7 win at Manville Friday night. Now 3.4 UPR points ahead of the No. 17 team, we believe the Comets have clinched a playoff berth, or – if not – came pretty darn close.

SOUTH GROUP 2:

• The only area team in the field of 16 at the moment is A.L. Johnson, which bumped up from 14 to 12 after a 41-28 win at Perth Amboy Friday night. The Crusaders entered the night 7.0 UPR points out of the top eight, and made up a lot of ground by beating the Panthers, but with winless JFK coming up to Clark Friday night, they have essentially hit their ceiling unless they get some help. Most likely scenario: they’ll finish high in the bottom eight. But they definitely assured themselves a playoff spot Friday night.
• Governor Livingston (3-4) has a Saturday home game against South Plainfield, which could bump them up a bit. The Highlanders are 2.4 UPR out of a playoff spot. We’ll see if a win can help them Saturday, but a loss could really put a hamper on the playoff drive. But they also could take a big jump if they can beat neighbor New Providence on the road (just a few miles away) next Friday night.
• West Deptford (8-0) and Rumson-Fair Haven (5-3) remain Nos. 1 and 2, despite the Bulldogs’ 48-41 loss Friday night to Brick Memorial. That was their third straight loss.

With Thursday and Friday Week 7 play in the books, Central Jersey Sports Radio is taking a quick look at movement in the playoff standings based on results so far.

There are many Saturday games on the schedule that will change the standings again heading into Cutoff Weekend next weekend, although things will be a lot simpler once the Strength Index values lock in after this week.

You can find all our unofficial standings here.

This season’s playoff coverage – both leading up to and in the postseason – is proudly presented by Dayton Collision on Route 130 in South Brunswick! That includes all our analysis over the next few weeks, as well as our LIVE Playoff Projection Show, scheduled for Saturday evening, October 23rd, and tentatively set for 6 pm.

Below is a breakdown of Week 7 movement after Friday in the North Group 4 and North Group 3 Supersections.

NORTH GROUP 4:

• While Middletown North (6-0) remains at No. 1 overall, Rahway (7-1) dropped to fourth behind Friday night winner Roxbury (6-2) and Northern Highlands (4-3), which lost. BUt it’s still too close a race to call. Middletown North and Roxbury are “true” 1s and 2s, meaning North is first in both power points and OSI, and Roxbury is second in both. Northern Highlands is a 3.8 UPR, and Rahway a four. We don’t think Rahway gets a top eight seed, since they have Edison with a record of 2-6 and a 46.88 SI, which – even with a win, could drop the Indians even further. The question is, how much?
• Ridge (5-2), however, did not get hurt much by a 42-19 win over a one-win Hillsborough team, and stays in fifth for the time being, with a 6.2 UPR, a big jump from 4.6 last week. So, while they don’t fall in the standings, their road to a top four finish and a two-seed is tougher than it was before. But it’s likely not impossible, with a very good Old Bridge (7-1) coming to town next week, filled with a bounty of residuals and SI points.
• Summit (6-2) dropped three places to tenth after a 42-14 win over Scotch Plains-Fanwood Friday night, their UPR slipping from 8.0 to 9.0 in the process. The Hilltoppers host Bernards (6-2) next Saturday, however, so a top eight finish is hardly out of the question here.
• Montgomery (5-3) slipped one spot to 11, their UPR up from 9.4 to 11.6 (remember: lower is better). With Hillsborough (1-7) next week, we think they finish bottom eight and open the playoffs on the road.
• Woodbridge (5-3) climbed up a spot to 13th after a 41-14 win over Linden. That very likely clinched a playoff berth for the Barrons, who look solidly in at this point, and are firmly entrenched in the bottom eight.
• Carteret (4-4) dropped just one spot after a 24-12 home loss to undefeated Cranford, but their lead over 17th-place Watchung Hills is 2.6 UPR points, almost what it was last week, with a 3.0-point advantage. But the Warriors play Saturday at Plainfield (2-5), and even a win could set them back just a little. The big one to watch is next week’s game at Bridgewater-Raritan (6-2). The Ramblers have Monroe (4-4) at home. Could be some scoreboard watching on both sides here next week.

NORTH GROUP 3:

• Cranford (7-0) remains at No. 3 after a 42-14 win at Carteret Friday night, but a Wayne Hills (7-1) over Ramapo impressed the computers more, and put them at No. 2, while Cranford’s 0.4 UPR gap to the top two now has increased to 0.6 points. That will make the Cougars’ home game Friday night against Hillside (7-1) even bigger, and it definitely gives Cranford a shot here since Wayne Hills is at Fair Lawn (3-5). They could get to two, but they likely don’t challenge overall No. 1 Old Tappan (7-0).
• Somerville (5-3) fell from ten to eleven after a 20-0 win over Hunterdon Central Friday, and with their finale at undefeated Elizabeth here’s our take: First, that would be an enormous win for the Pioneers. Second, we’re not sure yet whether it’s enough to make up 3.2 UPR points to finish in the top eight, guaranteeing a first-round home game. Put it this way: Better that Somerville was moved up to the North this year, because it sure beats a long trek to South Jersey
• South Plainfield (4-3) dropped from 16 to 17 for the time being, but they still have to visit Governor Livingston Saturday afternoon, and they close with a high-residual/SI opponent in Perth Amboy next Friday night at Jost Field. That said, we’ll say conditions are favorable for the Tigers to make the playoffs, if they can capitalize. Certainly two wins gets them in, maybe a split depending on which way that split goes. They are just 1.0 UPR points behind Pascack Valley, which lost last night, but still moved ahead of them.

With Thursday and Friday Week 7 play in the books, Central Jersey Sports Radio is taking a quick look at movement in the playoff standings based on results so far.

There are many Saturday games on the schedule that will change the standings again heading into Cutoff Weekend next weekend, although things will be a lot simpler once the Strength Index values lock in after this week.

You can find all our unofficial standings here.

This season’s playoff coverage – both leading up to and in the postseason – is proudly presented by Dayton Collision on Route 130 in South Brunswick! That includes all our analysis over the next few weeks, as well as our LIVE Playoff Projection Show, scheduled for Saturday evening, October 23rd, and tentatively set for 6 pm.

Below is a breakdown of Week 7 movement after Friday in the North and South Group 5 Supersections.

NORTH GROUP 5:

• Elizabeth (7-0) still has a trip to Westfield on Saturday afternoon, but the Minutemen edged up one spot to second after Ramapo lost, 34-13, at Wayne Hills Friday night. We figures that might happen if the Raiders dropped at least one of their last two games.
• Phillipsburg made a huge jump from nine to four with a 35-14 home win over Bridgewater-Raritan. The Stateliners (5-2) are just behind Ramapo, and drop Piscataway (7-1) to fifth, despite a 35-7 win at Monroe Friday night. It remains to be seen if the Chiefs (7-1) are still in the running for a top seed; they visit Sayreville next Friday in the Bellamy & Son Paving Big Central Game of the Week on Central Jersey Sports Radio. The Panthers (6-2) drop a smidge from seven to eight, but could still hold on to a top eight seed.
• Union (5-3) holds in tenth despite a 34-19 loss at St. Joseph-Metuchen Friday night, but their UPR drops to 11.2, and they most likely will finish in the bottom eight, starting the playoffs on the road.
• Perth Amboy (6-2) dropped from eleven to 13 after 41-28 home loss to A.L. Johnson. The Panthers should be in the playoffs, 5.2 UPR points ahead of the No. 17 team.
• Plainfield (2-5) still has a game Saturday at home against Watchung Hills, and remains in 15th after Friday action. The Cardinals probably can’t lock up a playoff spot with a victory over Watchung Hills, and they’re still a bubble team.
• Linden dropped three places to 19th after a 41-14 loss at Woodbridge. The Tigers (3-4) are now 2.6 points out of a playoff spot, and a win at Westfield may not be enough to move the needle. They are more likely out than in, but we’ll see if they get any help Saturday.
• Franklin (3-5) edged up to 17, and is just 1.6 UPR out of a playoff spot, behind Bloomfield.
• West Orange (5-1) remains the overall No. 1 here, and plays at Barringer Saturday.

SOUTH GROUP 5:

• Old Bridge (7-1) moves up a spot to third after a 43-0 win over East Brunswick Friday night, coupled with Southern’s 21-20 loss at Middletown North Friday night. But Rancocas Valley holds the second position, now 8-0 after a 52-16 win at Pleasantville that put a little more distance between them and the Knights, as they shrunk their UPR from 2.6 to 2.0, leaving Old Bridge 0.8 UPR points out of a top-two finish. They may be able to get it, though, with a win at Ridge next Friday on Cutoff Weekend.
• Sayreville (6-2) jumps a spot from seven to six after a 44-8 win at North Brunswick. They got helped by a Williamstown 29-21 loss to Northern Burlington, flipping the two. But the Bombers are likely too far out to finish in the top four, but it’s possible if things fall right this weekend and they get some help next week.
• Monroe (4-4) climbs three spots from 17 to 14, despite a 35-7 loss Friday night to Piscataway. They actually move up two spots, but since Kingsway (0-8) is in 13th and has one game left, they won’t meet the two-win minimum to get in the playoffs, so that gives the Falcons an extra bump. Monroe isn’t out of the woods yet, though, as they have a very tough game at Carteret next Friday night.
• South Brunswick dropped a spot to 19th (18th, for the same reason as Monroe) after a 27-25 loss to Franklin Friday night, and the Vikings (3-5) are in dire straits now. With an 18.2 UPR, they are 1.2 points out of a playoff spot behind 17th-place (16th-place) Cherokee. We’re not sure if a win at Colonia (2-6) next week can get them in; we’ll know more once the weekend is fully completed.

With just one more week before Cutoff Weekend in New Jersey High School football, we’re taking another detailed look at the standings and scenarios facing every public school in the Big Central Conference that’s in contention for a playoff berth.

Assuming scores are reported in a timely fashion Friday night, we’ll also publish updated standings and some light analysis late Friday or early Saturday morning. Our next update will be next week, leading up to the cutoff.

This season’s playoff coverage – both leading up to and in the postseason – is proudly presented by Dayton Collision on Route 130 in South Brunswick! That includes all our analysis over the next few weeks, as well as our LIVE Playoff Projection Show, scheduled for Saturday evening, October 23rd, and tentatively set for 6 pm.

Here’s a detailed team-by-team look at the Group 1 supersections, North and South as we head into Week 7 play this Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

NORTH GROUP 1:

• After the top two teams – Cedar Grove (5-1, 1.0 UPR) and Newton (7-0, 2.0) – look fairly entrenched in their positions, the first Big Central team we find is Belvidere (6-1, 10.40) at No. 11. While they might have a chance at a top eight seed and a first round home game, we think the more likely scenario is that they start on the road, finishing in the bottom eight. The only question here is who they’ll play; the County Seaters don’t appear to be in danger of missing the playoffs. They finish at North Warren (2-5) this week and home against Delaware Valley (5-2) next Saturday.
• On the bubble, but on the right side this week, are Dayton (5-2, 14.8) and Brearley (5-2, 15.6). Clinching a playoff spot may come down to the final week. The biggest – and maybe only – threat behind them is Hawthorne (3-3, 16.2) at 17. That’s because at No. 18 is Kittatinny (16.8) at just 1-5. They have Sussex Tech (0-6) this week and North Warren (2-5) next week, and even a sweep may not move the needle. And, they will need to win at least one to qualify for the playoffs; there’s no backing in for them. The next team is back Wallington in 19th, and while they’re 3-4, their UPR is 19.0, and that’s a lot of ground to make up to catch Brearley, which is 3.4 points ahead. Dayton has a solid schedule from here out, with Highland Park (7-0) and Manville (5-2) next weekend. Brearley has Roselle Park (3-4) and North Plainfield (4-3), and while that may not be enough to move them up much, even if they sweep, they probably won’t be hurt much either. Bottom line: we like both team’s chances. One side note: the Bears’ leading rusher Monroe Passmoore just had one carry last week, and his health down the stretch could be a wild card in this scenario.

SOUTH GROUP 2:

• Paulsboro (5-2, 1.4 UPR) and Schalick (7-0, 1.6) are the top two teams here, and are in good shape generally, but could flip by the time all is said and done. After Salem (4-3, 3.0, 3rd) and Pennsville (4-3, 6.0), there are two Big Central teams: Delaware Valley (5-2, 7.6) and Highland Park (7-0, 7.6) tied for fifth. Either could potentially end up in the top four, but No. 4 is probably the ceiling for both. They didn’t and don’t play each other this year, so there’s no head-to-head tiebreaker that could be involved. The Terriers have North Plainfield (4-3) at home this week and Belvidere (6-1) on the road next week, so a move to fourth is doable. Same for the Owls, who have Dayton (5-2) on the road this week for the Freedom Gold Division title, and then close next Friday at home against Metuchen (2-4) in their annual rival game, at which L.J. Smith’s jersey will be retired by Highland Park.
• Manville (5-2, 10.8) checks in at No. 12, and we believe they are solidly in the field of 16 at this point, but, but getting into the top eight might be a big ask, with Penns Grove (4-2) and Shore (2-4) tied for eighth at 8.60 UPR. The Mustangs have Hillside (6-1) this week at home, then are at Dayton (5-2) next week. So, we’ll put emphasis on might in the previous sentence as far as earning a first-round home game.
• The biggest question here is can South Hunterdon (4-3, 19.2, 18th) make it? They’re tied with Woodbury (2-5), and the Herd play the last game on the schedule Saturday – at 6 pm! Why? – when they play Buena, which will be ineligible for the playoffs after multiple players were DQd in a fight that broke out in a game with Lindenwold (although they wouldn’t have qualified anyway). They also have to jump New Egypt (4-3, 18.6). Problem is their last two opponents are Dunellen (1-5) at home this week, and Lyndhurst (1-6) away on Cutoff Weekend. This may not be in the cards.

With just one more week before Cutoff Weekend in New Jersey High School football, we’re taking another detailed look at the standings and scenarios facing every public school in the Big Central Conference that’s in contention for a playoff berth.

Assuming scores are reported in a timely fashion Friday night, we’ll also publish updated standings and some light analysis late Friday or early Saturday morning. Our next update will be next week, leading up to the cutoff.

This season’s playoff coverage – both leading up to and in the postseason – is proudly presented by Dayton Collision on Route 130 in South Brunswick! That includes all our analysis over the next few weeks, as well as our LIVE Playoff Projection Show, scheduled for Saturday evening, October 23rd, and tentatively set for 6 pm.

Here’s a detailed team-by-team look at the Group 2 supersections, North and South as we head into Week 7 play this Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

NORTH GROUP 2:

• Westwood (5-1, 1.0 UPR) and Caldwell (6-0, 1.6) currently lead the section and look like they will most likely finish in the top two – even if they flip-flop – and get the two No. 1 seeds. Then, it’s down to five for Bernards (5-2, 5.20). We think the Mountaineers can finish in the top four, just 1.4 UPR points behind Hoboken (6-1, 3.8) and 0.2 more behind third-place Waldwick/Midland Park (6-1, 3.6). If not, we think they’re a pretty solid top eight team right now. They should beat winless JFK, but they might need to beat a very tough Summit (5-2) on the road Saturday of Cutoff Weekend to hang on to that spot. The question is, will it be enough for a top-four finish? It could be, but they might need some help, with the Kennedy game a big detriment at the moment. (Side note: Bernards head coach Jon Simoneau played his high school ball at JFK.)
• New Providence (5-1, 10.0) checks in at No. 9, down three spots this week after the loss to Perth Amboy, their first of the season. That made a dent, but certainly the Panthers’ 6-1 record at the moment prevented the damage from being any worse. Still, that defeat may have cost them a first-round home game, sitting 1.2 UPR points behind High Point (6-1, 8.8). They are probably the only team the Pioneers can catch if they’re going to get into the top eight. Question is, will their schedule allow them to make a move? They’re at Spotswood (3-4) this week and home to Governor Livingston (3-4) next week; a sweep and a High Point loss might do it, but we’ll know a lot more after this week.
• Hillside (6-1) is the last Big Central team in the running here, and it looked like they might be the Spotswood of 2026. (The Chargers last year were 8-1 and missed the playoffs due to a one-point loss to Dayton, on a tiebreaker they lost to three-win Camden Eastside.) But now at 6-1, they made a big jump this week from 19 to 14, and are now squarely in the picture. They haven’t locked anything down yet, but they’re looking good. The schedule is tough – at Manville (5-2) and Cranford (6-0) in the final two weeks – but that also means that a win in either of both not only should be enough to get them in the playoffs, but could improve their standing greatly. They won’t get a first round home game, but they could be in the top half of the bottom eight if they can sweep the Mustangs and Cougars.

SOUTH GROUP 2:

• West Deptford (7-0, 1.6 UPR) and Rumson-Fair Haven (5-2) are pretty good bets for the No. 1 and 2 seeds, but beyond that, there’s just one Big Central team in the running, and it’s A.L. Johnson. The Crusaders are 14th at the moment, just as they were last week, sitting at 4-2 with a 15.0 UPR. It’s only 1.4 points back to No. 17, though, so nothing is set in stone here. The Crusaders are in Perth Amboy Friday night to take on the Panthers (6-1) for the Patriot Silver Division title, and a win could lock up a spot, since they would get 24 power points for that game – six for a win and 18 residuals – a big boost for their current 9.67 power point average. They may need that win to get in the playoffs, since they would only get six points from a victory over winless JFK in the final week. Stay tuned here…