Baseball Power Points Update: Edison, Middlesex, Rutgers Prep and Immaculata in line for top seeds with three weeks left before NJSIAA cutoff

With only one Central Jersey Sports Radio-area team on the baseball schedule this Sunday, a rainy one at that, it’s time to take our first look at the power point standings in New Jersey, with the cutoff date of May 17 exactly three weeks away.

And there are two publics and two non-publics who are on the right track for top seeds in their respective sections.

Interestingly, the two publics are in Middlesex County – Edison in Central Jersey Group 4, and defending state Group 1 champion Middlesex in CJ1 – while the two non-publics are from Somerset. Immaculata sits atop South A at the moment, while Rutgers Prep tops North B.

This year’s change to the power point formula is that only the top 16 results will count toward qualification. Group points again are no longer a part of the equation, and OOWP remains in the formula. That’s the Opponent’s Opponent Winning Percentage, and for each game, that winning percentage gets .500 added to it, and the total is multiplied by the quality and residual points to get the value for each game.

For example: Team A beats Team B with 6 wins. Team A gets 6 quality points and 18 residual points. The OOWP is the average winning percentage of all of Team B’s opponents. So if that turns out to be a .520 win percentage, the OOWP is 1.020 (.520 plus .500), meaning the 24 power points (6 plus 18) is multiplied by 1.020 to get 24.48 power points.

The top 16 power point values are averaged to get the team’s power point average used for qualification.

(In a story we’re still researching from basketball season, early findings have shown OOWP does little to change power point standings compared to not using it at all, and just using quality points and residuals.)

In any event, here’s a section by section look of power point standings in sections with CJSR-area teams, with links to official standings as posted on NJ.com as of 9:45 am on Sunday, April 26th:

Central Jersey Group 4: This section has the biggest concentration of GMC and Somerset County teams anywhere, and after the top seed, many are bunched together. With the GMC Red and Skyland Conference Delaware Divisions stacked with top teams, don’t get fooled by records; strength of schedule is going to be a big factor here. Currently, Edison (8-3) is leading the pack, with easily the best winning percentage in the section at .727 and a power point average of 18.742, more than a full point ahead of second-place Hightstown (8-4, 17.726). After Hunterdon Central and Marlboro, there’s a trio of GMC Red Division squads, with Monroe (7-6, 14.867) in fifth, followed by South Brunswick (6-6, 14.252) in sixth and Old Bridge (6-6, 14.252) in seventh. The Red Division has been very good, but mostly beyond Edison – which is in first by two games over Old Bridge and, 2.5 over Monroe and three over Soouth Plainfield – everyone has been beating everyone else up. We think the Falcons, Vikings and Knights have a good shot at finishing in the top eight, but don’t count any of those teams out, even if they get an eight or a nine-seed. That’s because Hillsborough (5-6, 13.458) won this section as a nine-seed last year; currently, the Raiders sit in tenth, right above three more area teams. They’re a sliver ahead of Montgomery (7-8, 13.444), followed by Franklin (2-5, 12.663) in 12th, then East Brunswick (5-7, 12.465) in 13th. We think anyone from 11 up is going to be pretty safe here if they can continue without a dropoff in play, though even Franklin and East Brunswick are on the right side of things for now. Sayreville (5-7, 11.382) is a bubble team, but with some cushion; Trenton is right behind them, and North Brunswick in 17th (5-8, 9.967) has some real distance to make up between them and the Tornadoes (6-6, 11.003).

Central Jersey Group 2: While they may not be undefeated as they were last year, State Group 2 champion Governor Livingston is at the top of the pack this year, but not by much. But last year, Rumson-Fair Haven had a bit of an off-year. This year, not so much. The Highlanders are 10-3 (21.505) with the Bulldogs 11-2 (21.251), behind them by a pretty slim margin. This race could come down to the wire. For the first CJSR-area team, you have to get by Johnson, Point Pleasant Boro and Wall to get to South River (10-4) at No. 6 with 17.978 power points, and they’re not far out of fourth. But Allentown (7-6, 17.852) and Delran (10-4, 17.504) are also well within striking distance of the Rams from behind, so they’re not exactly guaranteed a top eight seed (and first-round home game) either. After Manasquan and Robbinsville, Spotswood (6-7, 15.381) is in 11th, but they’re just .006 points behind the Ravens, and could make a move here late. After a 1-5 start, the surging Chargers have won five of their last seven. East Brunswick Magnet (3-10, 8.573) sits in 18th place, but only about 1.2 points out of the 16th and final playoff spot.

Central Jersey Group 1: Defending State Group 1 champion Middlesex (13-1, 20.175) is right at the top of the pack again here, with Point Pleasant Beach (13-1, 20.175) in second. Those two always seem to hook up in the playoffs, including in last year’s sectional final here, a 7-1 win for the Blue Jays en route to Hamilton (then Wood-Ridge). Not far behind is Piscataway Magnet (13-0, 17.698), the only undefeated team left in the CJSR coverage area, and one of just seven statewide with an unblemished record heading into Sunday play. One of the other six, Keyport (9-0, 16.398) is very close behind, too, but with fewer games, could pass the Raiders. Then, there’s Metuchen (8-4, 16.207) and Dunellen (9-2, 14.842) who could also make a run from fifth and sixth, respectively. After Shore and South Hunterdon round out the top eight, South Amboy is just a shade back of the Eagles at 7-2, with 11.317 points, just .136 behind. The Guvs should have a shot at the top eight, but that’s likely all. The next team from the area is Manville (5-6, 8.138) at 14, followed by Somerset Tech (5-4, 7.873) and Highland Park (4-7, 7.313), rounding out the top 16. The Owls could make it with a couple more wins, with likely Keansburg (3-8, 6.22) in 17th their only real competition for that final playoff spot.

North Jersey, Section 2, Group 4: Fewer than two power points separate the top four from each other here, but there’s a little more distance to the next four. Currently, Bayonne (11-2, 22.007) holds the top spot, followed by Scotch Plains-Fanwood (8-3, 21.6), then two Skyland Delaware Division squads: Ridge (11-4, 21.335) and Watchung Hills (7-3, 20.037). We like both teams’ chances to finish in the top four, especially considering their strength of schedule. JP Stevens (9-4, 18.835) might have a shot, but they might also need some help from the teams ahead of them. Defending champion Westfield – which beat Ridge in last year’s sectional final – sits in seventh, and the next area team down is Woodbridge (5-6, 13.733) in tenth, with Bridgewater-Raritan (4-8, 13.505) in tenth, with their strength-of-schedule keeping them in the hunt right now. They should safely be in the playoffs at their current pace, but Piscataway (6-8, 12.859) is squarely on the bubble in 14th, albeit on the right side. A few more wins, maybe a run in the counties, and we think they’re a good bet to be in.

North Jersey, Section 2, Group 3: South Plainfield is the defending champ here, but the Tigers find themselves in ninth place at the moment, with a 7-7 record, and 12.917 power points. Have they been a little inconsistent? Maybe. Or maybe it’s more the nature of the GMC Red, where everyone has been feasting off one another. Swept by Edison, they swept Woodbridge, but have since split with St. Thomas Aquinas and Old Bridge, before losing a pair of high scoring games to East Brunswick. Point is, wherever they land, and they still have a good shot at a top eight seed, they could be dangerous. The highest team here is Carteret (10-3, 20.221), but it might be a stretch with their schedule to say they have a good shot at Chatham (11-2, 1st, 23.932). It’s a good deal of ground to make up, and likely not out of the realm of possibility, but the odds are likely a little on the longer side. Still, finishing top two would be an accomplishment, and guarantee home field through at least the sectional semifinals. Behind the Ramblers, North Hunterdon is almost three points back (9-5, 17.663), and Colonia (9-3, 16.622) – last year’s sectional runner-up – sits in fourth. This isn’t an easy section: Cranford (7-7, 16.502( is a shade behind in fifth, and resurgent North Plainfield (10-5, 15.233) is right there in sixth, and could also have a crack at the top four. Somerville (6-6, 12.953) is the team South Plainfield is chasing for the eight spot; how high the Tigers can go will depend if they can string some big wins together. After that, it’s all the way down to 14 for bubble team JFK (5-8, 10.657), but looking at the competition behind them, we think they’re more likely to be in than out.

North Jersey, Section 2, Group 2: Caldwell (12-1, 16.509) has a sizable lead here for the top seed over second-seed West Morris (10-3, 22.591), with the only area team here being Bernards (6-6, 10.894). The Mountaineers sit in 14th, and while nothing is set in stone (far from it), they look like they should be in the final 16 when things shake out.

Non-Public North A: The only area team here is the new co-op Timothy Christian/Roselle Catholic, which is last out of 13 teams at 0-8. Defending champ Don Bosco is second, behind No. 1 DePaul, currently the No. 3 team in the state.

Non-Public North B: Rutgers Prep (9-2, 20.574) leads the pack here, with a sizeable lead over St. Mary-Rutherford (9-3-1, 17.51). Mother Nature cost the Argonauts a shot at South Plainfield Saturday, with rain moving their game against the Tigers at TD Bank Park until after the cutoff. But they’re still in an enviable position, in front by more than three power points. After those two, and Morris Catholic, Morristown-Bears and the Hawthorne Christian/Eastern Christian co-op, Gill St. Bernard’s (5-6, 11.489) and St. Thomas Aquinas (4-9, 10.73) sit in sixth and seventh. At best, this should be a eight- or nine- team field, with 11th place Golda Och only 0-4, and who knows if Pope John will opt-out, currently at 1-10.

Non-Public South A: Immaculata (9-3) has been lights out all year, and could sweep top-seeds this season, as they are on track to be the No. 1 seed in the Somerset County Tournament. They’re in first-place in this section with 22.906 power points, but they are less than one point ahead of St. Augustine (11-4, 22.099). After that, it’s all the way down to eight for St. Joseph-Metuchen (5-8, 11.743), but keep in mind, they rallied in the GMC Tournament to win it last year after entering the tournament at 10-6, and never led, winning each game in their final at bat. The Falcons even beat Immaculata – which won last year’s SCT – in the opening round here. There are 12 teams here in what could be an 11-team field, if Camden Catholic (1-9, 12th) decides not to play. Pingry (5-6, 9.689) is in tenth, ahead of 11th-place Donovan Catholic.