Every year, the NJSIAA seems to tweak the playoff formula a little bit, and this year was no exception. And we’re sure many of you have questions about how the playoff seeding actually works.

Actually, we know. Because we’ve been getting questions from coaches and fans all around the state the last couple of weeks.

The biggest change is the “geographic” model of seeding teams has been scrapped (again) and we’re back to snaking, which has its pros and cons. It balances out the sections within each North and South Supersection, but it also can lead to long travel or teams in sections with names that don’t match their geography – like how Old Bridge faced Washington Township, which is south of Philadelphia – in last season’s Central Jersey Group 5 championship game.

With that we’ve put together a brief primer on the basics of playoff seeding. So, here are the key points.

Who qualifies?

There are ten public school “supersections” that split each group into North and South Jersey.

The top 16 teams in each supersection according to the NJ UPR rating qualify for the playoffs, with those teams divided into two traditional sections of eight. (Further down, we’ll explain a few caveats to the seeding.)

This year, the brackets are “snaked” to balance out the strength. That means in the overall field of sixteen, they are broken up this way, then seeded one through eight in each section.

• Section A: Overall seeds 1, 4, 5, 8, 9, 12, 13, 16
• Section B: Overall seeds 2, 3, 6, 7, 10, 11, 14, 15

Once that’s done, the section with the overall No. 1 will play in a section named after its typical natural section. So, if it’s in North, they would go in either North 1 or North 2, while the overall No. 2 – no matter what their section – would be in the other. In the South, it would be Central or South.

So, if in North 5, it were Elizabeth at No. 1 and Piscataway at No. 2 – both typically North Jersey, Section 2 schools – Elizabeth would be the North Jersey, Section 2 top seed, and Piscataway would be the North Jersey, Section 1 top seed, even though Piscataway is further South than Elizabeth.

Are there exceptions?

Yes. Any team that goes undefeated automatically qualifies for the playoffs. They would bump the last team in the field. So a team at 17 or 18 that’s 8-0 would bump the 16th team out.

In addition, two wins is required to be playoff eligible. (We think it should be four, or at least 3-5, but not 3-6, but that’s a debate for another day.) If there’s a team in the top 16 with no wins, or zero wins (such as Kingsway, which is 0-8 this year, but sitting as high as 13th place at the moment) they get bumped in favor of the next team up at 17, 18 or the next team to have met the two-win minimum.

In a real-life example, Trenton and Lenape are tied for 16th in the section. So if the playoffs ended today, since Trenton beat Lenape on October 9, Trenton becomes the 16, Lenape the 17, but Lenape gets in because Kingsway would automatically be out.

What is the NJ UPR?

First used in the 2018 season, the UPR is the United Power Ranking; it was called that as it was considered a consensus among the different regions of the state, which typically have differing interests for their teams. It uses two metrics: power points and OSI, or Opponent Strength Index.

Power Points

Power points are mostly like the typical formula we all know that’s been in use since 1975, one year after the NJSIAA held its first ever “playoffs” – which were initially meant to break ties for sectional titles according to an antiquated point system.

Most playoffs were just two teams whose ratings were similar playing to break a tie. If the best team was light years ahead of the other, champions were declared outright by the NJSIAA. Now, of course, 160 public schools make the playoffs each year, and more in the non-publics.

Teams get 6 quality points for beating an opponent, 3 for a tie, none for a loss. Then, they get “residuals,” which are a strength component based on an opponent’s win total. You get 3 points for each win by a team you beat, 1.5 for each win by a team you tied, and 1 point for each win by a team you lost to. (FYI: For those who remember it, the old rule that you don’t get a residual for the game in which your opponent beat you quietly disappeared from the regulations several years ago.) This is essentially a strenght-of-schedule component rewarding teams for playing opponents with more wins.

Teams also used to get Group Points for a win, equivalent to the size of the school, 1 through 5. But that was removed from the equation two years ago.

There are limits to residuals, however. Only an opponent’s first seven games count toward residuals. So if you beat a 6-2 team, but that sixth win came in game eight, you only get 15 residuals, three each for the first five wins through seven total games played. (This is to be fair for teams whose opponents don’t play their last game until Thanksgiving, and even then, might only play eight games.)

Additionally, the state caps the number of residual points at 18. So beating an 8-0 team doesn’t earn 24 residuals; you’d earn 18.

In the supersection standings, teams are ranked 1 through 32 (or however many teams there are) by power point average. We’ll come back to that number in a bit.

OSI (Opponent Strength Index)

This is another strength of schedule component. Each team has a Strength index value that gets tracked from Game 1 through the end of the playoffs. Those values go up or down based on how a team did in a game relative to another team’s rating. We won’t get into how that’s derived (Google it or see one of our previous stories), but how is it translated to OSI?

Say you play a team and their SI value is 80. You would get 100% of that value for a win, half for a loss, and three quarters for a tie. So you’d get 80 points for a win, 60 for a tie and 40 for a loss.

Those numbers of all your opponents are averaged, and the teams ranked 1-32 by OSI average. We’ll come back to that number as well.

What does it mean that SI is “locked in” this week?

Good question. Strength Index is calculated all year long right through the playoffs. But to make the process of seeding more predictable and easier to figure out on Cutoff Weekend – for teams and media alike – the numbers are locked in after Week 7 games. So this week, what you see is what you get in terms of SI value. Out-of-state SI values will be updated this week as well.

What about multipliers?

Multipliers are non-public schools the state deems strong enough that a team who loses to them should get an extra bump. There are four tiers. Teams get the normal value for a win, but for a loss to a Tier A team, you’d get 80% of the SI value, Tier B is 75% and Tiers C and D are 70%.

Why two at the same rate? Any A, B or C multiplier that loses to a non-multiplier gets knocked down to the D category. And anyone in the D category – whether they started or moved there – who loses to a non-multiplier loses that status entirely that season. In essence, an A, B or C would have to lose twice to lose multiplier status. A Tier D team would only have to lose once.

Notable: loss of “multiplier” status has no effect on that former multiplier, it only pertains to that team’s value to its opponents, in terms of SI.

So how do we get the UPR?

The UPR weighs OSI at 60% of the formula and power points 40%. So to get a UPR rating, multiply the power point rank – not the value itself – by 0.4. Multiply the OSI rank by 0.6. So if a team is first in both categories, you’d take 1 x 0.4 and add to 1 x 0.6, and you’d get one.

Now, take a team first in power points but second in OSI. You’d get 1 x 0.4 plus 2 x 0.6, which is 0.4 + 1.2, giving you a 1.6 UPR. Take the reverse, a team in second in power points but first in OSI. That would be 2 x 0.4 plus 1 x 0.6 or 0.8 + 0.6 or 1.4. The lower number is better, so the team first in OSI is above the team lower in OSI (since OSI is worth more, 60% to 40% for power points).

How does my team move up or down in the UPR standings?

Since lower numbers are better in terms of UPR (1 being the highest, the overall top team in a section) the goal to climb in the rankings is to “lose” UPR points. That can be done through a mix of climbing in the rankings of power points and OSI.

But Here’s where it gets tricky. If you’re in 17th and need to get to 16th to make the playoffs, and that team is rated a 16 and you’re a 17, you can’t just lose UPR points. You have to go up in either metric.

Say your UPR is 12, and you climb one spot in power point rank, you’d be an 11.6. If you also climbed one spot on OSI rank, you’d be an 11. If you climbed one spot in power point rank from a 12 UPR, but went down one OSI rank, you’d shed 0.4 points, but gain 0.6 points and would be an 12.2 UPR.

When trying to “catch” a team above you, think of a Magic Number in baseball to clinch the American League East. If the Yankees’ Magic Number is 10 over the Red Sox, that means any combination of Yankee wins and Boston losses equaling ten gives them the pennant.

So, if your UPR is 17 and you need to jump a team with a 16 UPR, any combination of power point or OSI moves needs to total more than 1.0 to jump them. Since power points are worth 0.4 each jump, and OSI 0.6, one in each would only be 1.0 and only get you a tie. So you might need two power point jumps and one OSI jump (0.8 + 0.6) so you’d lose 1.4 UPR points and now be ahead of the team with a 16 UPR at 15.6 (17 minus 1.4).

Where it gets even trickier is, not every team has the same rating in each category. Say you’re 16, and happen to be 16 in both. The team above you could be 12th in power points but 18th in OSI. So, you need to find the teams right above you in power points and the teams right above you in OSI to see if you can shed points that way. The team right above you in UPR may not be the team you’re gunning for!

Seeding adjustments

Once all the games are done on Cutoff Weekend, seeding can begin. The first thing to do is to go through and break any UPR ties. The order of the tiebreakers is:

• Head-to-Head
• Common Opponents
• OSI rank
• Power Points rank
• Coin Flip

Note that since OSI values are reported down to two decimal points, it is very rare a tie-breaker will go past OSI, but it is possible.

Then, a top-down, head-to-head check is performed. Did team 2 beat team 1? If so, Team 2 moves up and becomes No. 1. Now, did Team 3 beat the new Team 2? No, we move to the next one, did Team 4 beat Team 3? And so on down the list. It’s possible to jump multiple teams – it’s happened before – as long as the team is directly in front of you. For example, if Team 7 beat Team 6, they move up, and now are behind Team 5. If they beat Team 5, they move up again until you find a team above them they did not beat.

However, If Team 7 beat Team 5, but did not beat Team 6, they can’t jump Team 5. They could only jump them if they beat Team 6 and move into that spot.

This is performed all the way down to Team 17. If they beat 16, Team 17 gets in and Team 16 is out. This is happens at least once every couple of years.

Disqualifications and Opt-Outs

Opt-outs are rare in public brackets, but it could happen. But disqualifications happen at least once or twice a year. Teams reaching three disqualifications in a season (generally ejections) before the Cutoff are ineligible for the playoffs. This year, Lindenwold and Buena are on that non-eligible list due to a brawl at a game that resulted in nine Lindenwold players and 15 from Buena getting ejected.

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While those two known ineligible teams would not have made the playoffs anyway, they are still calculated in power points, OSI and UPR. So if anyone finishes in the top 16, they are simply taken out, and the next team from the supersection will be seeded.

When does the seeding come out?

All games need to be completed first, and notable is that this Saturday, there are two late game on the schedule.

Paramus and Lincoln play at Caven Point in Jersey City at 4 pm, a late start due to unavailability of fields. Lincoln in the running – 27th out of 27 in North Group 3 – but Paramus is very much a bubble team at 16 in the standings.

Then, in South Jersey, Woodbury visits Buena at 6 pm. We’ve already been through Buena being playoff-ineligible due to DQs, but Woodbury also is a bubble team, now sitting at 17th in South Group 1. And with Big Central teams Manville at 15 and South Hunterdon at 18 (though the Eagles may already be eliminated), that game could very well determine who the Mustangs play in the opening round, or even if they will qualify.

Will Central Jersey Sports Radio share its projections?

What do you think? Of course!

We’ll have our live “2026 Playoff Projection Show” at 6 pm Saturday, presented by Dayton Collision in South Brunswick. We’ll go through all 20 public school playoff sections in all five groups, with all 160 teams, break it down with host Mike Pavlichko and analyst Marcus Borden, and be joined by multiple coaches on the show. Click here to listen.

How will we handle South 1, where we have Woodbury in the running? First, we’ll see how Friday goes to see if they even still have a shot after everyone else plays. We’ll see how the game goes, as we usually start with Group 5 and get to Group 1 at least an hour into the show. We’ll have two sets of brackets ready to go, one if Woodbury wins and one if they lose. And it’s entirely possible they may be locked into a spot regardless of the outcome of the game.

When do the official seeds come out?

The NJSIAA will seed the tournament Sunday morning. Timing depends on how complicated they are, in terms of tiebreakers, weeding out the ineligible teams, whether there needs to be a coin-toss to break ties (if all the tiebreakers are exhausted), etc. Once released, the bracket won’t become fully “official” until Monday at noon.

Central Jersey Sports Radio will likely annoucne its first round playoff coverage Tuesday afternoon.