Cutoff Weekend Group 2 Playoff Update: Bernards a longshot for a top seed, Spotswood’s in trouble (at 8-1!), while Dayton and Voorhees face play-in type games

It’s Cutoff Weekend in New Jersey high school football, and we’re taking a look at the playoff scenarios for every Big Central team in contention.

This week, Strength Index values are locked in, and out-of-state opponent SI values also have been updated by Gridiron New Jersey, which does all the official calculations of the NJ UPR formula for the NJSIAA. And we’ve double- and triple-checked our own standings to make sure they match with Gridiron’s.

We’ll have another update to the standings after Friday night’s games – yes, there are Thursday games, but none in the BCC, and we’ll only update if there are significant changes.

And, of course, Central Jersey Sports Radio will have its annual “Playoff Projection Show,” airing LIVE on Saturday at 6 pm. Mike Pavlichko hosts with analyst Marcus Borden, and they’ll run through all the projected brackets. Plus, you’ll hear from some of the league’s coaches as well.

Here’s our breakdown of the Group 2 supersections. We won’t be getting into how the brackets look just yet, but we’ll do that with our update after Friday night’s Week 8 action. Click the supersection header to see the official standings on Gridiron New Jersey.

NORTH GROUP 2

• Bernards: Upon closer inspection, it looks like the Mountaineers (8-0) are most likely going to get squeezed out of a first round playoff game, unless they get a lot of help. Coming in with a 4.2 UPR, it’s not a lot to get to the two teams tied for second at 2.8, Shabazz and Rutherford. But Friday night they play Carteret, and the Ramblers aren’t bad at all; their SI is 56.54 and they’re worth 15 power points. But Bernards’ OSI is a 56.81, and its power point average is 16.13, so it’s just not enough to move the needle either way very significantly. In that scenario, a win on its own keeps them tied for fourth (and with no common opponents and no head-to-head, Hanover Park would get the tiebreaker for now). Now, if they can get some help, that would be good. It looks like if Bernards wins, and Rutherford, Shabazz and Hanover Park all lose – regardless of what Westwood does – Bernards may be able to get the two-seed overall, and a top-seed in North 2, Group 2. But it’s unlikely all three lose. A loss by Bernards, and they could drop to six or perhaps a bit lower.
• Dayton: The Bulldogs (6-2) get Brearley Saturday, worth 18 power points and with a 49.52 SI value. Both are higher than their current averages (11.43 power points, 40.03 OSI) so a win on their own bumps them up to 15 from their current seat in the 16th position. That doesn’t seem like a lot, but giving wins to the five teams behind them in that scenario – Becton, Vernon, Lyndhurst, Mahwah and Cresskill – still keeps them in at 15; Vernon would jump them, but the others wouldn’t be able to make up enough ground. Should they lose, they’re out. So, we think this is a play-in game for Dayton.

SOUTH GROUP 2

• A.L. Johnson: The Crusaders (7-1) play Perth Amboy (1-7) Friday, so even a win on its own would drop them from eighth place to a tie for ninth with Gloucester City. That wouldn’t drop them in their section, necessarily, however, because Gloucester City will be in South Jersey Group 2, and Johnson will be in Central Jersey Group 2 when split by geography. Even a win by Bordentown behind them would keep them there, as the Scotties have Pemberton (1-6) on the schedule Friday. A loss, however, could drop them to 11 or lower. Johnson certainly is in the playoffs, but we think either way, they likely play on the road, and they most likely scenario is a 5th seed in CJ2.
• Voorhees: The Vikings (7-1) are having a fantastic season, but only in 16th coming into Cutoff Weekend. Their schedule is not as bad as some of the smaller-school six- and seven-win teams, but this section is a brutal one. Only one team above them – Point Pleasant Boro at 3-4 – has fewer than four wins. Now, we think that’s mainly the way it should be, but not every supersection is like this. North 5 for example has six of the last seven teams in the top 16 with three wins or fewer, including Montclair at 16 with a 1-7 record. (They would have to reach two wins to be eligible, but something is wrong with a system that allows that to even happen in the first place.) In any event, Voorhees will be hurt by having North Hunterdon (1-7) this weekend in the annual Milk Can Game, a rivalry that dates back to 1976, in which the Lions have a wide advantage. A win alone won’t move them up, though they could edge up if Willingboro and Overbrook – currently ahead of them – were to lose. A loss would drop them to 17, and even losses by Overrook Camden and Willingboro won’t help. Note that Camden Eastside – also ahead of them – is idle this week. It’s possible some quirk would get them in, but the best path is a win over North Hunterdon.
• Spotswood: Seems like we have this discussion every year with the Chargers. They’re 7-1, their lone loss is to Dayton, and they are on the outside looking in at 18. Let’s just get the easy part out of the way: A loss to 5-2 Roselle Park makes them toast. Now, can they find a way in? The big thing is Roselle Park is 5-2, and they’re a big prize for the Chargers: a 56.10 SI team, where their average is currently 39.45, and worth 21 power points, almost double their current average. But guess what? It still doesn’t move them from 18th! It’s a sign the system is broken and rewards teams more for losses to good teams than wins. (We’ll have more on this Saturday night, during our live projection show, you can be sure of that.) So, is there a path in? We’re going to assume a Voorhees win, which isn’t a big stretch. This one we’re going to dive deep on. What you have to look at is where you can gain in each metric, power points and OSI. The five teams ahead of Spotswood in power points (Spotswood is 13 there currently – by the way, we’ve advocated for ditching power points, going to solely OSI, and making losses less valuable (like 30 or 40 percent) – are Sterling, Collingswood, Voorhees, Manasquan and Lower Cape May. Giving all but Voorhees a loss, the Chargers are still at 17. Now, let’s try OSI, where Spotswood is 21st. The teams ahead of them are Delaware Valley, Governor Livingston, Raritan, Voorhees and Lower Cape May. We already got those last two, and Governor Livingston should beat winless New Brunswick (which hasn’t scored more than eight points in a game since 2022, a streak of 28 games). So we’ll be realistic, and give losses to Del Val and Raritan, and they still don’t get in. Maybe there’s a quirk we haven’t found yet – like a loss by Willingboro -but it looks pretty bleak for Spotswood, even with a win. Will it change anything? Probably not, but it should.