Here are Central Jersey Sports Radio’s projected playoff brackets for all four Group 5 public sections.

The NJSIAA will unveil the official brackets Sunday via Gridiron New Jersey. The brackets will become official at noon Monday.

With Cutoff Weekend here, many games across the state will have playoff implications, and the Big Central Conference is no exception. There are 22 games in the league tonight – seven of them involving teams in the Bellamy & Son Paving Top Ten – and XXXXX will have some kind of impact on the playoff races, even if just for one of the teams.

We’re not getting into Saturday yet, mainly because those implications can change after Friday’s results. But there are some big ones on the schedule.

No. 5 Woodbridge plays at No. 1 St. Joseph-Metuchen Saturday. That’s a game that affects Woodbridge, the Falcons are undefeated with another week before the non-public cutoff, Joe’s is going for its first unbeaten regular season since 2017, and if the Barrons win, they’ll remove the multiplier status, and the bonus for losing that goes along with it for a host of Group 5 and 4 teams.

Here’s a look at Friday’s games, and how they could affect the race for the playoffs in 2025:

• Bridgewater-Raritan (6-2) at No. 2 Phillipsburg (6-1), 7 pm: The Panthers have a very good shot at the top seed in North 2, Group 4, even if they lose. But a win and A West Orange (6-2) loss at Bloomfield (5-3) could give them the overall top seed. The Stateliners – currently third overall in North 4 – need a win and a Mount Olive loss to get the top-seed in North 2, Group 4. Northern Highlands is the overall No. 1 but Phillipsburg can’t catch them. Mount Olive is their only hope.
• No. 3 Montgomery (6-2) at Rahway (5-3), 7 pm: The Cougars could get as high as a third seed overall with a win, giving them the two-seed in North 2, Group 4, if they get some help, like a loss from Phillipsburg. They could finish eight or lower with a loss. Rahway should get in with a win, but a loss would all but eliminate them, unless everything else broke perfectly for them.
• No. 4 Somerville (7-1) at Watchung Hills (3-5), 7 pm: The Pioneers could claim the Central 3 top-seed with a win if Cedar Creek and Holmdel above them both lose. Either way, they’ll get a first round home game. The Warriors begin the weekend in second place, but if they could pull off the mammoth upset at home – and it would be huge – but it could vault them as high as 13 if their cards break right. Note that Rahway has a tiebreaker over them, and if the Indians were to lose Friday to Montgomery and end up 17, with Watchung Hills 16 – certainly a possibility – Rahway gets in on the head-to-head.
• Carteret (3-4) at No. 6 Bernards (8-0), 7 pm: Tough hill to climb for the Ramblers, but a win could get them to 17, which is all they need since Weequahic – well in the top 16 – is ineligible due to several disqualifications in a game earlier this season with Newark West Side, which also got DQd, but isn’t in the playoff picture. A loss and they’re out. Bernards can’t get a top seed, we think, but they could end up the two-seed in North 2, Group 2 if they win, and get losses from Rutherford, Shabazz, and Hanover Park.

• No. 7 St. Thomas Aquinas (5-3) at No. 8 Sayreville (7-1), 7 pm: Unlike St. Joseph, St. Thomas can’t lose its multiplier status even with a loss Friday because they’re a Tier C, and would have to lose twice. They haven’t lost yet to a non-multiplier, so any of their opponents in the league – like Franklin and Elizabeth – don’t need to sweat. For the Bombers, even if they get a multiplier loss here, we don’t see them getting a top-seed. They can’t catch Washington Twp., and Atlantic City won’t drop because they’re idle. A loss wouldn’t kill the Bombers either, but they’d love to avoid back-to-back defeats heading into the playoffs after a 7-0 start and a loss to Montgomery at home last week.
• No. 9 Piscataway (6-2) at Monroe (1-7), 6 pm: The Falcons aren’t in the playoff picture, but the Chiefs are, and they should win this game. We think they’ll be the second-seed overall in North 2, Group 5.
• Colonia (6-2) at No. 10 Old Bridge (7-1), 6 pm: Why does it always seem Colonia puts together some of its best years under the radar? Regardless, they’ve having a fine season, and a win against the Knights could put them around nine overall. A loss might not hurt, as they would slip back in the field of 16 but not North 2, Group 4. Old Bridge may not be able to tick up very much, nor would they slip much with a loss. All of this is because of two solid teams facing each other.
• Manville (8-0) at Bound Brook (5-3), 7 pm: Playoffs? This game is for the Freedom Silver Division title, baby! But we’re here to talk about playoffs, so… the Crusaders sit out of the top 16 now, but if they could pull off one of the biggest upsets of the year in the Big Central, they should be in. There’s also a chance they have a path with a loss due to Manville being undefeated and having one of the top ten SI values in the Big Central. The Mustangs sit in 12th, but we think they could move to around eight win a win, and could drop as low as 12 or more with a loss. We know Manville would love a home game, and they might get it, or they might not, but at least they’re not 8-0 and on the bubble.
• New Providence (7-0) at Delaware Valley (5-3), 7 pm: Don’t let the beauty out in Alexandria lull you, this will be an intense game. It’s a great rivalry, but there’s a lot at stake, and the equalizer here could be the unfortunate leg injury that ended runningback A.J. Whitehead’s season. That didn’t stop New Prov from beating up Bound Brook last week, though. They hold one of the top two seeds, but aren’t guaranteed to keep it; we think they need losses by Hasbrouck Heights and Mountain Lakes to do so, and gain the North 2, Group 1 top seed. A loss, we think the lowest they go is four overall. Del Val doesn’t appear to have a path in, sitting at 5-3, but they would love to play the role of spoiler here.

• Union (1-7) at Elizabeth (4-4), 6 pm: The Farmers are out of the playoff picture, but the Minutemen still could get a two-seed in North 2, Group 4. To do that, they need a win, and losses by West Orange, Bridgewater-Raritan, and Piscataway. Although the Chiefs losing is the least likely in that entire scenario. A loss could stick them on the road in the first round.
• Perth Amboy (1-7) at Johnson (6-1), 7 pm: While the Panthers aren’t in the running, the Crusaders will drop – even with a win – from eighth into a tie for ninth with Gloucester City, but the way things shake out around them, they probably won’t move down in the Central 2 section, unless they lose. Either way, looks like a first round road game for ALJ.
• Plainfield (3-5) at Linden (3-5), 7 pm: The Cardinals get in with a win, but could could back into the playoffs with a loss, especially with some one-win teams ahead of them, namely Montclair and Union. Both should lose this weekend, but the Cards would also need a Columbia (3-5) loss to Union City (4-3), which isn’t an unreasonable ask. The Tigers, meanwhile, sit in 12th, and could range from ninth with a win to 14th with a loss, but they won’t miss the playoffs. They’re in.
• JFK (6-2) at South Plainfield (4-4), 6 pm: The Tigers are out of the running, but the Mustangs might have the slimmest of chances with a win and a lot of things breaking right around them. There always seems to be one quirk that could help a team. Even we’re not sure what it is, but we’ll see what happens Friday night and review again Saturday morning when we’ve got some sleep.
• Roselle Park (5-2) at Spotswood (7-1), 6 pm: Believe it or not, even with a win over the Chargers, we don’t think the Panthers – sitting down at 22 – have a shot. Spotswood has to win to get in, but we think they have a shot. They need a lot to go their way, but nothing too crazy like a winless team knocking off an unbeaten. They also got a little help Thursday night when Willingboro lost at Seneca.
• North Hunterdon (1-7) at Voorhees (7-1): This is the old Milk Can Game, so tensions will be high, but the Vikings should win this one if they fancy themselves a playoff team, which we whole-heartedly believe they are. A win on its own for Voorhees doesn’t move them up, but Willingboro’s loss helped them too. A loss by Overbrook would help, too. A loss, and we don’t think they make it.

Other games Friday without playoff implications:

• South Hunterdon at Dunellen
• South Brunswick at East Brunswick
• Edison at Paterson Eastside
• Roselle at JP Stevens
• Belvidere at Middlesex
• Franklin at North Brunswick

Every year, the NJSIAA seems to tweak the playoff formula a little bit. Last year, it was the multipliers and power points.

Group size was taken out of the power points formula, with the NJSIAA essentially saying it was no longer relevant to the strength of a team. And multipliers were moved to OSI, with bonuses for beating one eliminated, and the bonus for a loss curtailed significantly.

This year, the NJSIAA threw out the snaking model of seeding for one that’s geography-based, to cut down on travel. So things will look different again this year.

With that we’ve put together a brief primer on the basics of playoff seeding. We get a lot of questions from coaches – and even media – throughout the year, but especially on Cutoff Weekend. So, let’s go through a few key points.

Who qualifies?

There are ten public school “supersections” that split each group into North and South Jersey. Generally, the number of teams should be balanced, but for some reason (we know why, but it’s too much to get in here, and it could be fixed, but it hasn’t been) North 5 has 26 teams while South 5 has 32. But essentially, they are split in half.

The top 16 teams in each supersection according to the NJ UPR rating qualify for the playoffs, with those teams divided into two traditional sections of eight.

Are there exceptions?

Yes. Any team that goes undefeated automatically qualifies for the playoffs. They would bump the last team in the field. So a team at 17 or 18 that’s 8-0 would bump the 16th team out.

In addition, two wins is required to be playoff eligible. (We think it should be four, or at least 3-5, but not 3-6, but that’s a debate for another day.) If there’s a team in the top 16 with no wins, or zero wins (there’s such a situation in North Group 5 at the moment) they get bumped in favor of the next team up at 17, 18 or the next team to have met the two-win minimum.

What is the NJ UPR?

First used in the 2018 season, the UPR is the United Power Ranking; it was called that as it was considered a consensus among the different regions of the state, which typically have differing interests for their teams. It uses two metrics: power points and OSI, or Opponent Strength Index.

Power Points

Power points are mostly like the typical formula we all know that’s been in use since 1975, one year after the NJSIAA held its first ever “playoffs” – which were initially meant to break ties for sectional titles according to an antiquated point system.

Most playoffs were just two teams whose ratings were similar playing to break a tie. If the best team was light years ahead of the other, champions were declared outright by the NJSIAA. Now, of course, 160 public schools make the playoffs each year, and more in the non-publics.

Teams get 6 quality points for beating an opponent, 3 for a tie, none for a loss. Then, they get “residuals,” which are a strength component based on an opponent’s win total. You get 3 points for each win by a team you beat, 1.5 for each win by a team you tied, and 1 point for each win by a team you lost to.

Teams also used to get Group Points for a win, equivalent to the size of the school, 1 through 5. But that was removed from the equation last year.

There are limits to residuals, however. Only an opponent’s first seven games count toward residuals. So if you beat an 6-2 team, but that sixth win came in game eight, you only get 15 residuals, three each for the first five wins through seven total games played. (This is to be fair for teams whose opponents don’t play their last game until Thanksgiving, and even then, might only play eight games.)

Additionally, the state caps the number of residual points at 18. So beating an 8-0 team doesn’t earn 24 residuals; you’d earn 18.

In the supersection standings, teams are ranked 1 through 32 (or however many teams there are) by power point average. We’ll come back to that number in a bit.

OSI (Opponent Strength Index)

Another strength of schedule component, each team has a Strength index value that gets tracked from Game 1 through the end of the playoffs. Those values go up or down based on how a team did in a game relative to another team’s rating. We won’t get into how that’s derived (Google it or see one of our previous stories), but how is it translated to OSI?

Say you play a team and their SI value is 80. You would get 100% of that value for a win, half for a loss, and three quarters for a tie. So you’d get 80 points for a win, 60 for a tie and 40 for a loss.

Those numbers of all your opponents are averaged, and the teams ranked 1-32 by OSI average. We’ll come back to that number as well.

What does it mean that SI is “locked in” this week?

Good question. Strength Index is calculated all year long right through the playoffs. But to make the process of seeding more predictable and easier to figure out on Cutoff Weekend – for teams and media alike – the numbers are locked in after Week 7 games. So this week, what you see is what you get in terms of SI value.

What about multipliers?

Multipliers are non-public schools the state deems strong enough that a team who loses to them should get an extra bump. There are four tiers. Teams get the normal value for a win, but for a loss to a Tier A team, you’d get 80% of the SI value, Tier B is 75% and Tiers C and D are 70%.

Why two at the same rate? Any A, B or C multiplier that loses to a non-multiplier gets knocked down to the D category. And anyone in the D category – whether they started or moved there – who loses to a non-multiplier loses that status entirely that season. In essence, an A, B or C would have to lose twice to lose multiplier status. A Tier D team would only have to lose once.

So how do we get the UPR?

The UPR weighs OSI at 60% of the formula and power points 40%. So to get a UPR rating, multiply the power point rank – not the value itself – by 0.4. Multiply the OSI rank by 0.6. So if a team is first in both categories, you’d take 1 x 0.4 and add to 1 x 0.6, and you’d get one.

Now, take a team first in power points but second in OSI. You’d get 1 x 0.4 plus 2 x 0.6, which is 0.4 + 1.2, giving you a 1.6 UPR. Take the reverse, a team in second in power points but first in OSI. That would be 2 x 0.4 plus 1 x 0.6 or 0.8 + 0.6 or 1.4. The lower number is better, so the team first in OSI is above the team lower in OSI (since OSI is worth more, 60% to 40% for power points).

How does my team move up or down in the UPR standings?

Since lower numbers are better in terms of UPR (1 being the highest, the overall top team in a section) the goal to climb in the rankings is to “lose” UPR points. That can be done through a mix of climbing in the rankings of power points and OSI.

But Here’s where it gets tricky. If you’re in 17th and need to get to 16th to make the playoffs, and that team is rated a 16 and you’re a 17, you can’t just lose UPR points. You have to go up in either metric.

Say your UPR is 12, and you climb one spot in power point rank, you’d be an 11.6. If you also climbed one spot on OSI rank, you’d be an 11. If you climbed one spot in power point rank from a 12 UPR, but went down one OSI rank, you’d shed 0.4 points, but gain 0.6 points and would be an 12.2 UPR.

When trying to “catch” a team above you, think of a Magic Number in baseball to clinch the American League East. If the Yankees’ Magic Number is 10 over the Red Sox, that means any combination of Yankee wins and Boston losses equalling ten gives them the pennant.

So, if your UPR is 17 and you need to jump a team with a 16 UPR, any combination of power point or OSI moves needs to total more than 1.0 to jump them. Since power points are worth 0.4 each jump, and OSI 0.6, one in each would only be 1.0 and only get you a tie. So you might need two power point jumps and one OSI jump (0.8 + 0.6) so you’d lose 1.4 UPR points and now be ahead of the team with a 16 UPR at 15.6 (17 minus 1.4).

Where it gets even tricker is, not every team has the same rating in each category. Say you’re 16, and happen to be 16 in both. The team above you could be 12th in power points but 18th in OSI. So, you need to find the teams right above you in power points and the teams right above you in OSI to see if you can shed points that way. The team right above you in UPR may not be the team you’re gunning for!

Seeding adjustments

Once all the games are done on Cutoff Weekend, seeding can begin. The first thing to do is to go through and break any UPR ties. The order of the tiebreakers is:

• Head-to-Head
• Common Opponents
• OSI rank
• Power Points rank
• Coin Flip

Then, a top-down, head-to-head check is performed. Did team 2 beat team 1? If so, Team 2 moves up and becomes No. 1. Now, did Team 3 beat the new Team 2? No, we move to the next one, did Team 4 beat Team 3? And so on down the list. It’s possible to jump multiple teams – it’s happened before – as long as the team is directly in front of you. For example, if Team 7 beat Team 6, they move up, and now are behind Team 5. If they beat Team 5, they move up again until you find a team above them they did not beat.

However, If Team 7 beat Team 5, but did not beat Team 6, they can’t jump Team 5. They could only jump them if they beat Team 6 and move into that spot.

This is performed all the way down to Team 17. If they beat 16, Team 17 gets in and Team 16 is out. This is happens at least once every couple of years.

Disqualifications and Opt-Outs

Opt-outs are rare in public brackets, but it could happen. But disqualifications happen at least once or twice a year. Teams going over two disqualifications (generally ejections) in a season before the Cutoff are ineligible for the playoffs. This year, Weequahic, Newark West Side and Princeton are on that list, so they’re ineligible.

While West Side isn’t in the running, Weequahic and Princeton are. They are still calculated in power points, OSI and UPR, but when seeding happens, they will be skipped. If one team is ineligible, they’ll take the next team, in this case, No. 17 from the field.

Seeding by Geography

New this year, in an attempt to cut down on travel, particularly in the South and Central sections of the state, which are more spread out than North 1 and North 2, brackets will be filled geographically, rather than by snaking, which provided brackets of even strength.

The top two teams in each supersections’ field of 16 qualifiers are the top seeds in each section. In the North, the Northernmost team goes into the North 1 bracket, the Southernmost goes into South 2. (In the South supersections, the Northernmost team goes into Central, Southernmost goes into South.) Then, the remaining 14 teams are divided the same way. The seven Northernmost teams go into North 1 or Central, the Southernmost go to North 2 or South.

Then, the teams are put again in UPR order. No additional tiebreaker or head-to-head evaluation takes place here.

Unbalanced?

It’s possible some sections could have tougher teams than the other, or have six of the top eight in one section, and two in the other. That’s because of the geography. Is it fair? Maybe not, but it’s the tradeoff for shorter travel, for avoiding, say, a first round game for a Hunterdon Central in South 5 at Atlantic City. The tradeoff is that rather than pre-determined sections, where one could have better competition than the other, and playoff-quality teams get shutout of the dance, the best 16 get in regardless of location.

When does the seeding come out?

All games need to be completed first, and notable is that this Saturday, all games start by 1:30 pm with one exception: Bogota – which will be in the playoff field – hosts Palisades Park/Leonia co-op at 6 pm. It’s senior night and a celebration of 100 years of Bogota football. So that could hold up Gridiron New Jersey’s projections, at least in Group 1.

Will Central Jersey Sports Radio share its projections?

What do you think? Of course!

We’ll have our live “2025 Playoff Projection Show” at 6 pm Saturday. We’ll go through all 20 public school playoff sections in all five groups, with all 160 teams, break it down with host Mike Pavlichko and analyst Marcus Borden, and be joined by multiple coaches on the show. Click here to listen.

How will we handle North 1, where we have Bogota? We’ll see how the game goes, as we usually start with Group 5 and get to Group 1 at least an hour into the show. We’ll have two sets of brackets ready to go, one if Bogota wins and one if they lose. And it’s entirely possible they may be locked into a spot regardless of the outcome of the game. Palisades Park isn’t in the running for a playoff spot, so that makes that scenario even more of a possibility. If that’s the case, we’ll project the bracket with that noted.

When do the official seeds come out?

The NJSIAA will seed the tournament Sunday morning and Gridiron New Jersey will be out with the brackets when they’re done. Once posted there, we’ll do the same. Timing depends on how complicated they are, in terms of tiebreakers, weeding out the ineligible teams, etc. Once released, the bracket won’t become fully “official” until Monday at noon.

Central Jersey Sports Radio will announce its first round playoff coverage no later than Tuesday afternoon.