It’s Cutoff Weekend in New Jersey high school football, and we’re taking a look at the playoff scenarios for every Big Central team in contention.
This week, Strength Index values are locked in, and out-of-state opponent SI values also have been updated by Gridiron New Jersey, which does all the official calculations of the NJ UPR formula for the NJSIAA. And we’ve double- and triple-checked our own standings to make sure they match with Gridiron’s.
We’ll have another update to the standings after Friday night’s games – yes, there are Thursday games, but none in the BCC, and we’ll only update if there are significant changes.
And, of course, Central Jersey Sports Radio will have its annual “Playoff Projection Show,” airing LIVE on Saturday at 6 pm. Mike Pavlichko hosts with analyst Marcus Borden, and they’ll run through all the projected brackets. Plus, you’ll hear from some of the league’s coaches as well.
Here’s our breakdown of the Group 5 supersections. We won’t be getting into how the brackets look just yet, but we’ll do that with our update after Friday night’s Week 8 action. Click the supersection header to see the official standings on Gridiron New Jersey.
- Bridgewater-Raritan: The Panthers (6-2) have a shot at the overall No. 1 seed here, but it won’t be easy. They would have to beat Phillipsburg (6-1) on the road Friday night and have West Orange (currently No. 1, 6-2) lose at 5-3 Bloomfield the same night. But even a Bridgewater loss might keep them there. Piscataway (7-2) visits Monroe (1-7) and the Chiefs just can’t gain enough from that game to put them in the fold for a top seed. Even Elizabeth at four overall can’t get much higher. So we think the Panthers are locked in as the top-seed in North 2, Group 5, it’s just a matter of whether they’ll edge out West Orange for the top-seed overall, which would mean they could host a group semifinal, if they got that far. Incidentally, their six wins are the most the Panthers have had since 2021 under Scott Bray, and a seventh win would be their best total since finishing 2017 9-3, with a trip to the North 2, Group 5 finals, the last of three straight they made, falling to undefeated Westfield all three times.
- Piscataway: Even with losses by Bridgewater-Raritan and West Orange, we think the Chiefs (6-2) are maxed out at No. 3, so they should be the two-seed in North 2, Group 5. A loss could drop them to fourth, maybe lower depending how Passaic Tech and Union City do. Either way, they should start out at home, playing on Saturdays as they always do.
- Elizabeth: If things break right for the Minutemen (4-4), a win over Union (1-7) coupled with losses by West Orange, Bridgewater-Raritan and Piscataway could get Elizabeth as high as three overall, which would earn them a two-seed in the North 2, Group 4 section, with the Panthers first and Piscataway third, then Linden fourth, making it an all-Big Central top four there. A loss would be tragic, potential dropping them to around eight overall, and on the road for a first-round playoff game. That’s quite the swing. But if the Minutemen fancy themselves a playoff team, they should handle the Farmers.
- Linden: Sitting at 12, the Tigers (3-5) have Plainfield (also 3-5) at home Friday. Just on its own, that keeps them at 12. A win could move them to around ninth overall, while a loss could drop them to 14, but they should be solidly win. Behind them are three teams that have no business making the playoffs, including 5-2 Morristown, 1-7 Montclair and 1-7 Union. And those last two won’t even qualify if they don’t get to two wins (and it’s unlikely they will).
- Plainfield: The Cardinals get in with a win over Linden, which would bump them all the way up to 12, not counting any other scores. But still, with Bloomfield at 13 and Linden at 14 – and we already counted a loss for them, there’s really no one who could catch them. With a loss? Well, they could back into the playoffs, thanks to those one-win teams. In that scenario, they would need Columbia (3-5) to lose to Union City (4-3), and for Union and Montclair to lose – leaving them each with one-win and ineligible – and they would get in. We can’t remember another scenario since the advent of the NJ UPR system in 2018 where a team got in from 18 because of two teams that didn’t meet the win requirement, but that’s what would happen here.
- Union: A win over Elizabeth (5-4) should get them in, moving them to around the 12th position in the field of 16. But at 1-7, they must win that game. Two wins is the NJSIAA minimum to qualify.
- Sayreville: We don’t think the Bombers have a path to a No. 1 seed, thanks in part to last week’s loss to Montgomery. They come in at 7-1, with a 3.6 UPR. Ahead of them is Atlantic City (7-1, 2nd) and Washington Twp. (8-0, 1st). Assuming Sayreville beats St. Thomas Aquinas (5-3), they can’t catch Washington Twp., even if they were to lose. And they’d be 0.2 UPR points behind Atlantic City. They’d need a loss by the Vikings, but since they play on Thanksgiving and have already played eight games, they’re idle this week. Now, the Trojans are a multiplier, but as of last year, teams only get bonus points if they lose; if they beat a multiplier, they get the normal points on the OSI side. That said, with a loss, they fall to four without any other games being considered, but it’s not the worst thing in the world. With Southern also above them, all three teams are from the south, Washington Twp. would get the top seed in Central 5, and Sayreville would be the two there regardless. But giving wins to Old Bridge and Rancocas Valley actually bumps them back up to third, mainly because Rancocas has Lenape (0-8) this weekend, and even a win would drop them and prop up the Bombers.
- Old Bridge: The Knights are going to benefit from that Rancocas Valley drop, too, should they beat a solid (6-2) Colonia team at home Friday night. A loss and they drop to seven, and probably lock them in there. Why? Even if teams behind them win, there’s a gap from Old Bridge in fourth in the Central 5 section to Hillsborough fifth with five teams from the South in between the overall UPR standings. And the Raiders can’t catch them.
- Hillsborough: Coming in at No. 13, the Raiders (3-5) have been hot and cold this season. At 1-4, they reeled off a couple of back-to-back wins, but fell off the wagon last week when Piscataway beat them at Noonan Field. A win Friday at Hunterdon Central (4-4) could get them around 11, while a loss could drop them as low as 15.
- Hunterdon Central: The Red Devils look like they need to beat the Raiders to get in. That would put them at 15, with Trenton, Howell and Bridgeton behind them. They still might need some help from them. If all three win, Central is out. But Central can get in as long as two of the three teams lose. We think Franklin is out regardless. The fly in the ointment could be if Jackson (2-6) wins at Brick Memorial (6-2), but we think that’s unlikely. So here are the scenarios for the Red Devils, needing two of three losses by those three behind them. If Howell and Bridgeton lose, Central gets in at 15 and Hillsborough holds at 12. If Bridgeton and Trenton lose, Hillsborough is at 15, Central at 16, but they would jump the Raiders since they just beat them. If Howell and Trenton lose, Central gets in at 16, Hillsborough is at 12 again. Play-in games and scoreboard watching are what makes Cutoff Weekend exciting!













