Group 5 Playoff Chase: Bridgewater-Raritan, Piscataway hold top two seeds in North Group 5, Sayreville moves from 8th to 5th in South

A loss by West Orange to Phillipsburg Friday hurt the Mountaineers more than Piscataway’s loss to Sayreville, and that’s pushed the Chiefs into one of the two top seeds in the North Group 5 playoff supersection.

That was the big takeaway from Week 5 action, with two Big Central teams holding the top two spots there, as Bridgewater-Raritan is in position to be the top overall seed.

With the NJSIAA moving away from snaking the brackets to a more geographic-based model, that would put the Panthers as the top-seed in North 1 Group 5, while Piscataway – which is further South by Northing number – would be the top seed in North 2 Group 5. Under the old pre-determined geographic system, both would have been in North 2.

Below are the brackets based on the current standings. Please note, we did not perform the top-down tiebreaker, nor UPR tiebreakers, which are decided – in order – by head-to-head, common opponents, OSI rank, power point rank, then coin flip.

The big thing to remember this year is that just moving up among the top 16 playoff qualifies doesn’t guarantee moving up in a section, since the teams are assigned to sections by geography.

For example, see Bayonne in North 2 Group 5. The Bees are 12th overall in UPR. Assuming the same teams make the playoffs, but Bayonne moves up from 12 to ten, they would still be geographically in North 2, and the next team ahead of them is Irvington, which is 9th overall.

So, in order to move up one spot in their section, they would need to move up four spots – from 12th to eighth – to make a jump of one spot in their section.

Conversely, look at Union City, in third in North 2 Group 5. They’re fifth overall in UPR, and East Orange is fourth. If they jumped one spot over East Orange, they would also flip-flop with them in the section, since one is right behind the other in the overall rankings.

As for the Big Central teams here, we think Bridgewater-Raritan should hold on to one of the top seeds. Piscataway’s schedule is a mix of favorable and competitive, and West Orange has a real tough one against East Orange (5-0) in a couple of weeks, so we think if the Chiefs win out, they have a good shot here to earn a top seed despite having two losses. Besides Sayreville last week, the other loss is to Bridgwater-Raritan.

Elizabeth sits at eight overall, despite a 2-4 record. The Minutemen have lost three straight but should be able to pick up a couple of wins down the stretch. They’ll have to watch Irvington directly behind them, but could be the beneficiary of the Bayonne example above. They would have to jump five places to knock Elizabeth out of a first round home game, if Irvington doesn’t. So, it’s likely they only have Irvington to worry about, if they can get a few more victories.

Linden isn’t yet eligible for the playoffs, with only one win. The minimum is two. They should get that next week against winless Perth Amboy, but then they have Carteret, followed by a Cutoff Weekend game with Plainfield. And the Cardinals, who are in 17th, very much could be looking for a way in of their own with a win that night.

Don’t forget to tune in to Central Jersey Sports Radio’s “Playoff Projection Show” as Mike Pavlichko and Marcus Borden go through the projected playoff brackets at 6 pm on Saturday, October 25th, Cutoff Weekend!!!

Other than if two Big Central teams occupy the top two spots overall – like Bridgewater-Raritan and Piscataway in North 5 – all the Big Central teams should generally be in Central Jersey, as they are here in the South 5 supersection.

But here, it’s two West Jersey Football League teams occupying the top two spots, with Washington Township getting the Central top-seed by a hair over Southern, with only a slight difference in Northing number.

The rest of the Big Central teams end up in Central, and though some may have to travel to Washington Township – like Hunterdon Central as of this moment – at least it’s not deep South Jersey.

This is also a pretty balanced group, with four of the top eight seeds in each section. Central has seeds 1, 4, 5, and 7, while South has 2, 3, 6 and 8.

As for the local teams, again, note that Sayreville is second in Central Group 5, but fourth overall, with the top-seed, Washington Twp., No. 1 overall. That means Sayreville has to jump two teams to get that top seed: Atlantic City (3rd overall, 2nd in South 5) and Southern (2nd overall, tops in South 5). If that were to happen, Sayreville would be the top-seed in Central 5, while Washington Twp. would be the top seed in South 5. Whoever is the overall No. 1 is irrelevant; the section where they’ll be the top seed is reliant on geography.

Hunterdon Central would love that scenario, as a trip to Sayreville would be much closer. The red Devils would be considered a bubble team at the moment, but one or two wins should lock it up, considering they have a strong overall schedule, including Ridge, Old Bridge and Hillsborough the last three weeks.

In fact, the Raiders also are looking good, even at 2-4. They sit 14th overall, and Saturday’s win over Westfield helped immensely, at the very least getting them “playoff qualified” with the minimum two wins. The Raiders finish with Bridgewater-Raritan, Piscataway, then Central.

So, yes, that Cutoff Weekend game could be huge, maybe even a “play-in” game!

To the middle of the pack, Old Bridge is seven overall, and in line for a first round home game. Now, look at the scenario we’ve talked about regarding moving up the reverse way, moving down. The Knights are seventh overall, but protected a bit by the 8, 9 and 10 seeds being in the South. Assuming all these teams make the playoffs, and no one from the local area gets in, Old Bridge would have to drop five places to 12th to lose that first round home game, because there are three overall UPR teams between them and Howell, who would have to make a huge jump from a 12 UPR to better than 7.6 to knock Old Bridge out of a home game. The Knights have three winnable games, with Monroe, Hunterdon Central and Colonia in the final three weeks.