Cutoff Weekend Group 4 Playoff Update: Phillipsburg in play for a top-seed in North 2 section packed with Big Central squads; Rahway and Watchung Hills face “play-in” games

It’s Cutoff Weekend in New Jersey high school football, and we’re taking a look at the playoff scenarios for every Big Central team in contention.

This week, Strength Index values are locked in, and out-of-state opponent SI values also have been updated by Gridiron New Jersey, which does all the official calculations of the NJ UPR formula for the NJSIAA. And we’ve double- and triple-checked our own standings to make sure they match with Gridiron’s.

We’ll have another update to the standings after Friday night’s games – yes, there are Thursday games, but none in the BCC, and we’ll only update if there are significant changes.

And, of course, Central Jersey Sports Radio will have its annual “Playoff Projection Show,” airing LIVE on Saturday at 6 pm. Mike Pavlichko hosts with analyst Marcus Borden, and they’ll run through all the projected brackets. Plus, you’ll hear from some of the league’s coaches as well.

Here’s our breakdown of the Group 4 supersections. We won’t be getting into how the brackets look just yet, but we’ll do that with our update after Friday night’s Week 8 action. Click the supersection header to see the official standings on Gridiron New Jersey.

NORTH GROUP 4

This is a very difficult supersection to nail down since there are a ton of Big Central teams here, just about every other team from three on down, with Phillipsburg there, Montgomery fifth, Woodbridge at seven, Ridge at nine, and Colonia 11th, with Westfield at 15 and Rahway at 16 heading into Cutoff Weekend. And the teams are tightly packed, too. There are so many ways this can go, with each team dependent on several others above and below them. We could very well end up with six or seven teams from the Big Central in North 2, Group 4, once it all shakes out by geography, so there’s a very good chance we get sectional champion here from the BCC.

• Phillipsburg: Phillipsburg (6-1) has a tough one Friday night at Maloney as Bridgewater-Raritan (6-2) comes in, with Declan Kurdyla now playing his third game back at QB after suffering an injury earlier this season against Hunterdon Central. A win could get them the top seed if No. 2 Mount Olive loses, even if No. 1 Northern Highlands wins. But, they would not get it the other way around, with a win, a Highlands loss and a Mount Olive win. They need help to get there. And if both those teams above them lose, they could end up No. 1 overall with some other help. A loss, and the Stateliners dip to four, and could fall even further back if Montgomery wins at Rahway.
• Montgomery: The Cougars (6-2) visit Rahway (5-3) in the “Big Central Game of the Week” presented by Bellamy & Son Paving Friday night at 7, with major playoff implications for both. If the Montgomery can win, and they get help from above, like losses from Phillipsburg and Ramapo, they can get as high as third overall, which would give them a two-seed in North 2, Group 4, guaranteeing home games for at least the first two rounds, into the semifinals. A loss could drop them to eight or lower overall, unless they get some help from the teams around them.
• Woodbridge: With a win by the Barrons (7-1) at St. Joseph-Metuchen (7-0), Woodbridge could vault as high as fourth, but probably not any higher. But the Falcons are a multiplier, which is worth 70 percent of the SI value instead of 50 percent. That means a loss – on its own – keeps them at seven. We think, at the very least, Woodbridge is a two- or three-seed in North 2, Group 4.
• Ridge: The Red Devils (5-2) are at Westfield (3-5) Saturday, and with the Blue Devils being a middle-of-the road team in terms of power points and SI, a win or loss doesn’t bump Ridge too far up or down. They should stay in the middle of the pack of 16 here, and likely begin the playoffs on the road; they’d have to pass Montgomery, but as we talked about, even a loss doesn’t kill the Cougars too much, so Ridge is a bit limited in where it can move. Should be a road team in the first round.
• Colonia: The Patriots (6-2) should be in the playoffs regardless of what they do at Old Bridge (7-1) Friday night, since the Knights are a strong team SI-wise, and still give Colonia six power points even for a loss (their seventh win came in their eighth game, and only the first seven count for residuals). A win would be gargantuan, potentially moving them up to nine overall, and maybe higher if some things break their particular way, and they could even jump Ridge. With a loss, depending on the teams behind them, they likely won’t drop more than a spot or two, but even that might not move them in the North 2, Group 4 section.
• Westfield: A loss to Ridge likely doesn’t hurt the Blue Devils too much, since the Red Devils are 5-2 and highly-rated in terms of SI. A win could pull them up to 12. We think they’re likely a seven seed – definitely a bottom four, first-round road team – in North 2 Group 4 unless some other games affect it.
• Rahway: In the game we have on the air Friday night, the Indians (5-3) host Montgomery (6-2), and a win on its own gets them all the way up to 11th place. We don’t think there’s a way enough teams could pass them to knock them out, so we’ll call this a “play-in” for Rahway. But that also means if they lose, they’re probably out. They’d fall to 20 regardless of any other games, and would probably need a lot of help. It;s not impossible, they’d just need everything to break right ahead of them.
• JFK: We tried a lot of numbers, but we think even if the Mustangs (6-2) beat South Plainfield (4-4) they can only get to 17 with a lot of help. It’s possible there’s a way, and it might be clearer after Friday night.
• Watchung Hills: Don’t count out the Warriors (3-5), even though they start the weekend in 22nd place. Somerville is one of the top 35 SI teams in the state and has seven wins, so it’s a big jackpot if Watchung Hills can come up with a win. That may be easier said than done, but a victory could get them as high as 13 if things break right. We’re not sure if it’s a lock that they get in with a win, as they could still finish around 15 or 16, and if they finish 16 to Rahway’s 17, the Indians have the tiebreaker on head-to-head. But that’s if everything breaks wrong. Good chance they’re in with a win