Cutoff Weekend Group 3 Playoff Update: Somerville still has a shot at a top seed, Cranford’s in, Carteret still has a shot

It’s Cutoff Weekend in New Jersey high school football, and we’re taking a look at the playoff scenarios for every Big Central team in contention.

This week, Strength Index values are locked in, and out-of-state opponent SI values also have been updated by Gridiron New Jersey, which does all the official calculations of the NJ UPR formula for the NJSIAA. And we’ve double- and triple-checked our own standings to make sure they match with Gridiron’s.

We’ll have another update to the standings after Friday night’s games – yes, there are Thursday games, but none in the BCC, and we’ll only update if there are significant changes.

And, of course, Central Jersey Sports Radio will have its annual “Playoff Projection Show,” airing LIVE on Saturday at 6 pm. Mike Pavlichko hosts with analyst Marcus Borden, and they’ll run through all the projected brackets. Plus, you’ll hear from some of the league’s coaches as well.

Here’s our breakdown of the Group 3 supersections. We won’t be getting into how the brackets look just yet, but we’ll do that with our update after Friday night’s Week 8 action. Click the supersection header to see the official standings on Gridiron New Jersey.

NORTH GROUP 3

• Cranford: This one is fairly easy. The Cougars (4-4) sit in 14th place, and we think they stay around there. A win over Hillside (2-5) doesn’t move the needle, but it doesn’t hurt them much either. With Weequahic out of the picture, the Cougars are a 5-seed in North 2, Group 4. But they would be 14 or so in UPR (14.6 or so), while the next team above them in fourth, Roxbury, is in seventh, with a 7.4 UPR at the moment. There’s no way they catch them, so we’re not even going to bother with where they stand in the top 16; we think it’s an extremely high probability that Cranford ends up the five-seed regardless of what they do against the Comets.
• Carteret: The Ramblers (3-4) visit Bernards (8-0) this Friday night. That’s going to be a tough one, especially with banged up QB Nolan Walsh back in the lineup from injury. (He played the second half last week against Linden.) A loss and they’re definitely out. A win and they could get to 17, which would be good enough since Weequahic (9th) is ineligible due to being over the DQ limit. And with a loss from Mendham (4-4) at Randolph (1-7) – which isn’t likely – or a Warren Hills loss at Hackettstown (both are 4-4), they could even get to 15. We think a win gets the Ramblers in, but it won’t be easy.
• South Plainfield: Even if the Tigers (4-4) beat JFK (6-2), they don’t appear to have a path to the top 17. If everyone around them loses, North Plainfield would jump them, but even they don’t seem to be able to get in with any help.

SOUTH GROUP 3

• Somerville: The Pioneers (7-1, 3.6 UPR) would have to make up one UPR point to get into a tie with second-place Cedar Creek (7-1, 2.6 UPR). Holmdel (5-2) is in between at third (3.2 UPR) and Burlington Twp. is No. 1 (1 UPR). A Somerville win at Watchung Hills (3-5) could get them as high as second if Cedar Creek and both Holmdel lose. If either wins, the winner gets second and the loser goes to fourth. All we can tell you is, even with a loss, Somerville at least gets one more game back at Brooks Field.