Tag: power points

by Mike Pavlichko

Defending Group 4 girls’ hoops champ Hillsborough leads early pack for a top seed in NJSIAA playoffs, along with a host of GMC, Somerset County squads

We know, we know, the cutoff date isn’t for another six weeks. But we’ve learned a lot about positioning for the playoffs in high school basketball, and a number of teams are in the running – or holding the top spots – in the power points chase in their respective sections.

There are some notable alterations to the system this year. While there weren’t many classification changes, the biggest one is that the merger of Jackson Liberty (Central Group 2) and Jackson Memorial (Central Group 3). That leaves the new Jackson Township in Central Jersey Group 4, along with a host of GMC and Somerset County schools.

Also, a tweak was made to the power points formula. Last season, every game counted toward a team’s average. Now, only the best 16 will be factored into the equation. The idea is mainly to avoid hurting teams who played any struggling opponents on their schedule, which they might have no control of based on divisional assignments by their conference.

That said, here’s a not-too-in-depth look at each section, and where the teams in the Central Jersey Sports Radio coverage area stand, based on NJ.com’s official calculations as of 11:30 pm on January 2nd. The NJSIAA Cutoff Date is February 14th, with seeding on the 17th.

Central Jersey Group 4: The first eight teams here are from the GMC and Skyland Conferences, seven from the CJSR coverage area. Hillsborough (5-1) leads the pack, with just over 0.7 points separating them from second-place East Brunswick (6-0), and a little further back from them is Sayreville (5-1). After Hunterdon Central (4-2) in fourth, there’s New Brunswick (4-3) in fifth, then Montgomery (3-2), Franklin (2-4) and Old Bridge rounding out the top eight. That’s a packed group, and if it doesn’t change much, should make for one heck of a bracket. Monroe (3-2) is in 11th, but a big win or two could quickly move them up in the standings. One thing to remember is that once a team gets over 16 games, even a so-so win could cause teams to jump as any losses they have likely would fall out of the calculation.

Central Jersey Group 2: Mainstays Manasquan (6-0) and Rumson-Fair Haven (6-0) are the No. 1 and No. 2 teams here, with the highest area team being Piscataway Magnet, which is 7-0, but sitting in fifth due to its weaker schedule than the others. South River (6-1) checks in at No. 7, while Metuchen (3-2) is at 9. Both could end up on either side of that top-eight line, where a top eight finish guarantees at least one home playoff game. Spotswood – also 3-2 – is in 11th, while East Brunswick Magnet (3-3) checks in at No. 13. Either could make a run, but the Chargers – with their schedule – have a better chance of gaining ground and getting themselves in play for the top eight.

Central Jersey Group 1: New Providence (7-0) and Keansburg (4-0) are the first two teams here, and around three points or so back of both is Bound Brook (4-1). South Amboy (6-1) and Middlesex (3-3) are in sixth and eighth, but it’s a tight pack behind them to Manville (3-2) in 12th and even Perth Amboy Magnet (1-4) in 15th and Highland Park (3-4) at 16, so any of those could make a move with even a slight jump in points.

North Jersey, Section 2, Group 4: This section is led by Westfield (6-0) and Bayonne (7-1), but Bridgewater-Raritan (3-2) sits close behind in third. It’s not far back to sixth, where a string of four CJSR-area teams sit: Watchung Hills (3-2), followed by Woodbridge (5-1), Ridge (3-2), and Piscataway (2-3) in ninth. All are legit top eight teams, if they keep winning. Perth Amboy (2-3) could get there, too, even sitting in 11th, while J.P. Stevens (2-2) doesn’t sit that far back in 18th place; they’re just 1.8 points or so back of Amboy, and with such a small sample size, they could make a move. They’re at South Plainfield (2-3) Tuesday at 5:30 as part of a doubleheader you can hear live on Central Jersey Sports Radio.

North Jersey, Section 2, Group 3: It’s a GMC team followed by a Skyland team leading this section: Colonia (6-0) followed by Somerville (4-2). There’s a couple points distance there, but the Patriots have looked very good (we’ll see them January 13th at Middlesex on Central Jersey Sports Radio), and Somerville is a scrappy team, too, that made the sectional semifinals here last year, falling at home to Cranford. Carteret (5-2) checks in at five, the North Plainfield (2-3) is down at No. 9, but right in the mic for a top eight seed. South Plainfield (2-3) sits in 18th, but is less than a point from being in the field of 16. It’s early yet.

North Jersey, Section 2, Group 2: The only are team in this section is Bernards, and the 5-0 Mountaineers lead the section by a hair over Voorhees (5-0), by just .021 power points. Let’s just say they’re in the thick of things here.

Non-Public North A: Pinrgy leads this section with a 4-2 record, but by less than half a power point over No. 2 DePaul (4-0). They’re the only CJSR-area team in this section.

Non-Public South A: Paul VI (4-0) leads this section, with Bishop Eustace (5-1) next, then a pair of 6-0 teams: Trinity Hall and Red Bank Catholic. That puts St. Thomas Aquinas (6-3) in fifth, but still within reach of most, if not all, of the teams ahead of them. Mount St. Mary (2-3) sits in 12th, and Immaculata is 15th in the 15 team field at 2-6. But a couple of significant wins could change that in a hurry.

Non-Public North B: Mary Help of Christians (who?) from North Haledon in Passaic County leads this pack at 3-0, with Villa Walsh behind them at 3-1. Then you have defending Somerset County Tournament champion Gill St. Bernard’s (4-3) at three, but they’re not too far behind the others that they can’t make a move to that top-spot. It might just be taking some time for the Knights to mesh. Mother Seton (3-2) sits in sixth.

Non-Public South B: The top spot belongs to Gloucester Catholic (4-1) here , followed by Stuart Day (3-0), and Wildwood Catholic (4-1) before we get to the No. 1 team in the girls’ Bellamy & Son Paving Top Ten. That’s Rutgers Prep (6-1), of course, their lone loss coming in the Kevin Williams Holiday Showcase down at Toms River North this week against Red Bank Catholic. Wardlaw-Hartridge (2-2) is down at 11, followed by Calvary Christian (1-3) in 12th and Timothy Christian (0-2) in 13th.

by Mike Pavlichko

Several boys’ basketball teams in the running for top state tourney seeds in very early look at NJSIAA power points

Sure, we’ve barely gotten into the meat of conference play yet, but with many teams around seven, eight or more games into the 2025-26 high school basketball season, more than a few teams from the Central Jersey Sports Radio coverage area are at least in the running for top seeds in their respective sections.

There are a few changes this year. While there weren’t many alterations to the classifications, the biggest one is that the merger of Jackson Liberty (Central Group 2) and Jackson Memorial (Central Group 3) puts the new Jackson Township into Central Jersey Group 4, along with a host of GMC and Somerset County schools.

Also, a tweak was made to the power points formula. Where all games last season were counted toward a team’s average, only the best 16 will count this year, ostensibly to avoid hurting teams who played any clunkers on their schedule, which they might have no control of based on divisional assignments by their conference.

That said, here’s a not-too-in-depth look at each section, and where the teams in the Central Jersey Sports Radio coverage area stand, based on NJ.com’s official calculations as of 11:30 am on January 2nd. The NJSIAA Cutoff Date is February 14th, with seeding on the 17th.

Central Jersey Group 4: This is the section most densely populated with teams from our area, half of the 22 teams in all, including eight from the GMC and three from Somerset County. Two-time defending champion Montgomery (8-0) is in second, a slim margin behind Marlboro (4-1), with East Brunswick (7-1) just a shade behind the Cougars. Franklin (5-2) sits in a good spot in sixth, with Sayreville (5-2) in eighth, followed South Brunswick (5-1), Hillsborough (3-3) and Edison (4-2). All very much have a shot at finishing in the top eight and getting at least a first round playoff game at home. Monroe (1-5, 17th), Old Bridge (1-5, 18th) and New Brunswick (0-4, 19th) will need to turn things around quickly or face an uphill climb to the cutoff date.

Central Jersey Group 2: Metuchen (5-0) sits in third, but a decent distance – about four points – behind Rumson-Fair Haven (7-0) and Wall (5-0) in first and second, and asking the Bulldogs to catch those teams with their schedule may be asking a lot, even at this early date. Spotswood (2-2) is the next team down, at 13th, so they may have some work to do. East Brunswick Magnet (2-4) sits in 17th, and will need to pick up some wins to stay in the hunt.

Central Jersey Group 1: Defending Group 1 champ Thrive Charter (5-1) sits in first, but a slim margin separates second-place Point Pleasant Beach (5-2) and Bound Brook (6-1), with Piscataway Magnet (6-1) not far behind the Crusaders. Then, there are three more area teams from sixth through eighth, and all tightly packed: South Amboy (6-1), followed by Manville (3-3) and Middlesex (3-2). Next, Dunellen (3-3) checks in at 13, and may be a bottom-half team when all is said and done. Highland Park (3-5) checks in at 16, but there are a bunch of teams nipping at their heels – four, to be exact – within one point; among them are Perth Amboy Magnet (2-3) and Somerset Tech (3-4) in 19th and 20th, respectively.

North Jersey, Section 2, Group 4: Two unbeaten teams from the area hold the top two spots here, and both are unbeaten. How long they go without a loss could determine whether they stay there, but remember, even a loss or two may not hurt them with power points no longer counting all games, just the best 16 (i.e., a team that’s 16-2 likely wouldn’t have those losses count, unless any of them were more than a win). Piscataway (9-0) is at No. 1, followed by Bridgewater-Raritan (7-0). Certainly teams behind them can catch them – Scotch Plains-Fanwood (4-2) and Bayonne (6-0) are all within a point or so of the Panthers – but it’s always better to be playing with a lead, right? JP Stevens (5-1) is off to a very good start after a 3-19 season last year, and is sitting in eighth, with Perth Amboy (5-3) at ten. Both should have a good shot to be in the top eight. Woodbridge (2-3) sits in 13th, with Watchung Hills (3-3) and Ridge (2-4) in 15th and 16th, and all would be considered early bubble teams. But of note here are the Red Devils, who were missing a few players early on during an 0-4 start, but have now won two straight.

North Jersey, Section 2, Group 3: Four-time defending champion Colonia (2-5) has struggled early on, but they’ve lost some close ones – like to Piscataway in double-overtime before Christmas – as they try and figure out everyone’s roles after losses to graduation (Zach Smith), early graduation (R.J. Wortman), transfer (Aiden Derkack) and others just not playing basketball. The Patriots currently sit in 16th, but we have a feeling they’ll find some more wins here as the season warms up. Meanwhile, South Plainfield is off to a solid 5-1 start, and the Tigers (who we’ll se Tuesday night at 7 against Colonia on CJSR) are in third. Millburn (6-0) is first, well ahead of second-place Chatham (6-0), but South is not far behind the Cougars. And Somerville (5-1) isn’t far behind the Tigers. The next team is all the way down in 14th: North Plainfield (2-4), and Carteret (3-4, 18th) and JFK (1-4, 19th) aren’t out of the question to earn a bid.

North Jersey, Section 2, Group 2: Caldwell (5-1) leads the group, with Newark Collegiate (4-2) not far behind. The only area team in this section is Bernards (2-5), currently sitting in 12th place.

Non-Public South A: The lead is two power points – not insurmountable this early, but not impossible either – for No. 1 St. Peter’s Prep (5-1) over Immaculata (4-1). The Spartans might need to take someone down in Skyland Conference play to do it, but they had Montgomery on the ropes back on December 18th in Skillman, ahead 47-44 going into the fourth quarter, before eventually falling 72-62; that was the Cougars’ slimmest win of the year, though the two will not meet again. Always-pesky Pingry (5-1) sits in sixth, with ninth and tenth held by St. Joseph-Metuchen (5-0) and St. Thomas Aquinas (2-4), with the two separated by around 2.6 points.

Non-Public North B: Unless they go into some tailspin, count on Morris Catholic being the No. 1 seed, as they are 6-0 and have almost double the power points of second-place Gill St. Bernard’s (5-2). The next team from the area is at eleven – Timothy Christian (1-4) – with Wardlaw-Hartridge (0-3) in 14th.

Non-Public South B: Despite a solid 5-1 start, Rutgers Prep sits in fourth, but they’re just about two-and-a-half points behind first place Holy Cross Prep (5-0), with Doane Academy (8-0) and Bishop Eustace (7-1) in above them. Calvary Christian (2-4) sits in 12th.

by Mike Pavlichko

Power Point Analysis:  Where do all CJSR-area teams stand a week before NJSIAA cutoff??

We’re just one week away from the cutoff for the NJSIAA state tournament, and there have been some significant moves by teams in various sections over the past week, including Middlesex moving into the top spot in Central Jersey Group 1 thanks to a pair of big wins over North Hunterdon and Delbarton in the week gone by.

Today, we look at all sections with teams from the Central Jersey Sports Radio coverage area, incluidng Groups 1 through 4 and all the non-publics. All power points referenced are from NJ.com’s official standings as of May 11, 2025 at 5 pm.

Central Jersey Group 4: While Hunterdon Central (12-5, 26.885 power points) remains the No. 1 by a wide margin, Old Bridge (11-8, 23.873) made a big jump up two spots this week, and the Knights appear to have made it very likely they will end up a top four team, and could end up in the top two, which would guarantee home field advantage through at least the sectional semifinals. East Brunswick (11-7, 22.201) holds the third spot, and New Brunswick (11-2, 21.319) is in fourth. The Zebras have a less than one-point lead over fifth-place Hightstown (14-3-1, 20.439) but at least are on the right side of the top four line. Then, there’s Monroe (8-10, 19.296) up a spot to fifth this week, while Edison (10-9, 18.89) holds in seventh. There’s a decent two-point-plus gap from the Eagles past No. 8 Freehold Township (9-8, 18.516) to No. 9 Hillsborough (7-9, 16.631), so there’s a good chance Edison can hold on to a top eight seed, which gets at least a first round home game. This week’s county tournament play could have a lot to say about that.

There are a number of area teams bunched up in the bottom eight. Sayreville (7-11, 14.706) is in eleventh place and should end up in the bottom eight, followed by Franklin (7-7, 14.357), Montgomery (4-12, 13.161) and North Brunswick (3-13, 13.14). The Raiders started the year 1-12, but have won two of their last three, and ad we always say about teams with few wins, mathematically speaking, one or two can make a world of difference. That’s why they climbed six places this week, more than any other team from the CJSR area, and are now in 14th. South Brunswick – which got knocked out of the GMCT’s championship bracket by South River Saturday – could move into playoff position if they can pick up a win this week – as of now, all they have is West Windsor-Plainsboro North at home on Thursday, which would be worth just under 18 power points, and could boost their average enough to top 16th place Marlboro, which is 3-15 and just 0.301 power points ahead of them.

North Jersey, Section 2, Group 4: There’s been a shakeup at the top here, where Woodbridge (13-4, 25.9) has fallen out of first place, behind Westfield (13-4, 26.598). The Blue Devils are just 0.698 points ahead, and that could change based on county tournament play this week. In third is Ridge (14-4, 25.838), which also dropped one place from last week. Both the Barrons and Red Devils – we believe – are comfortably in the top four, at least for now. Watchung Hills (11-7, 20.967) is significantly behind fourth-place Elizabeth (16-5, 25.838). The next team down is defending Group 4 champion Bridgewater-Raritan (5-13, 17.203), which fell two spots this week, after jumping four places the week prior. Then, there’s Piscataway (5-11, 13.454) at 12, up two places, and Perth Amboy (5-10, 13.129) up four spots this week, from 17 to well into the playoffs at No. 13, even though they were 0-4 in the week gone by. Right behind them is JP Stevens (5-14), which got the top spot in the GMC Ray Cipperly Invitational Tournament Friday. But they’re still not assured a playoff spot, we think, just 0.274 points ahead of 16th place Plainfield (8-8).

North Jersey, Section 2, Group 3: Last week, it was South Plainfield that was first, but this week Colonia (14-3, 24.52) is in the top spot. They’re a shade ahead of second-place Millburn (10-10, 23.592), which pulled up from fourth, while North Plainfield (12-5, 22.437) dropped one to third, and South Plainfield (12-8, 22.189) is down to fourth. But these teams are so bunched up, with less than two-and-a-half points from first to fourth, that a lot can happen this week; this is far from being set in stone. Then, you have Somerville, which rose two spots this week to get to No. 6 at 9-7, with 19.3 power points. It might be a stretch for the Pioneers to make the top four, but they most likely end up in the top eight, though there’s no guarantee of that either. Behind them are Cranford (10-7, 19.224) and Carteret (9-9, 18.986) and JFK (9-9, 18.609).

Central Jersey Group 2: The top spot is locked up by Governor Livingston (18-0, 33.336, No. 2 in the state), almost 11 points ahead of the nearest competition, A.L. Johnson at 12-5, with 22.731 power points. Spotswood (12-8, 20.652) has pulled up to No. 8, a gain of six spots, one of the biggest gainers in the week gone by. But the Chargers haven’t guaranteed a home game at The Swamp yet. They’re just 0.03 points ahead of ninth-place Raritan (13-7, 20.622) and Cinnaminson (12-8, 20.566) and Allentown (11-8, 20.566) – the latter of whom they fell to, 2-1, Saturday afternoon – are tied for tenth, and within striking distance. As is South River even in 12th, which dropped five places from seventh in the week gone by. East Brunswick Magnet (16-4, 19.773) took a tumble as well, five places from eight to 13.

North Jersey, Section 2, Group 2: West Morris (13-5, 15.404) continues to lead the secton, with Passaic Valley (12-5, 23.82) right behind them. The only area team here is Bernards (8-9, 17.445), and they sit in 11th, down one spot from last week. They will easily be in the playoffs, and should finish in the bottom eight.

Central Jersey Group 1: This is where Middlesex (143-4, 25.676) jumped from No. 2 to No. 1, now ahead of second-place Point Pleasant Beach (15-5, 21.501) by 4.175 power points. That’s a pretty good margin with a week left in the season, all thanks to a pair of wins this week over top-notch opponents in North Hunterdon and Delbarton, the second of which is the fifth-ranked team in the state, according to NJ.com. We think the Jays will end up there, especially with good teams on their schedule this week in the GMCT. Metuchen (14-6, 20.77) drops from first to third. South Amboy (5-12, 14.724) slipped a spot from eight to nine, but still has a shot at the top eight. Somerset Tech (7-6, 14.187) is right behind at No. 10, followed by Manville (9-8, 13.854) at eleven, Dunellen (12-7, 13.354) at 12, and Piscataway Magnet (9-9, 13.238) at 13. All should be in, but it’s going to be a tough road for the first three teams outside the top 16 to make in, including Perth Amboy Magnet (3-11, 9.418) – which is 0.733 behind 16th place Keyport (4-6), followed by Highland Park (3-13, 8.482) in 18th, and Bound Brook (1-13, 7.445) right behind at No. 19.

Non-Public South A: This is a 12-team field if no-one opts out, and Christian Brothers (16-2, 30.133) has a good lead over second-place St. Augustine (13-5, 26.275). The highest team from our area here is Immaculata (11-5, 24.488), holding in fourth place. If that’s where they end up, they should see a first-round bye. Challenging them for that spot is St. Joseph-Metuchen (10-6, 22.255), which could face good teams in the GMCT this week. Pingry (5-14, 12.912) is up two spots to tenth, jumping Camden Catholic (3-16, 11.649, 11th) and Donovan Catholic (2-11, 9.952) after a 3-1 week which saw them beat Hillsborough 12-10.

Non-Public North B: The top two remain the same, with Montclair-Kimberley (12-4, 22.813) followed by St. Mary-Rutherford (12-6, 22.412), while St. Thomas Aquinas has moved up two spots from fifth to third, at 12-6, with 22.052 power points. In a 12-team field, the top four would get byes, and Morristwon-Beard wraps up that grou at 11-6, with 21.092 points, but just 0.192 points behind is Rutgers Prep (10-6, 20.9), so they’ve got a shot to get in here, too. Gill St. Bernard’s (9-8, 17.857) fell a spot to seven here. We also think this could be an 11-team field, as it remains to be seen if Timothy Christian (0-12, 6.803) will play in the tournament.

by Mike Pavlichko

Power Point Analysis: Metuchen leads Central Jersey Group 1, with Middlesex not far behind

We are three weeks from the NJSIAA cutoff for the state tournament in baseball, and Central Jersey Sports Radio is wrapping up its first look at the standings, with a breakdown of how we think area teams will fare by looking at Central Jersey Group 1.

For an explanation on the baseball power point formula, check out Thursday’s story on the Group 4 playoff analysis by clicking here. Current analysis is based on standings on NJ.com through games played on Saturday, April 25.

Central Jersey Group 1: There are three CJSR-area teams in the top five here, with Metuchen (8-2) leading the pack with an 18.935 power point average. They’re nearly 1.3 points ahead of Point Pleasant Beach (11-1, 17.662), while Middlesex checks in at No. 3, with an 8-4 record (16.94). All three teams probably have a shot at a top seed, but the Bulldogs certainly have the inside track. Consider their margin over the Garnet Gulls, and there’s not much more they could do at 11-1 to gain points, but we’ll be following the next few weeks closely.

Manville (6-5, 13.622) checks in at No. 5, but they should still have a crack at the top four, which would guarantee at least home field advantage into the second round of the playoffs, the sectional quarterfinals. They’re just 0.728 points behind fourth-place Delaware Valley (6-5, 14.35). Further down at No. 8 is Piscataway Magnet (5-6, 12.627), but it’s too early to tell where they’ll land other than to say that with a number of teams bunched tightly in the middle of that pack, they could end up on either side of that 8/9 line. Somerset Tech (5-4, 10.843) is in 10th, with Dunellen (9-3, 10.703) right behind at No. 11. Shouldn’t the Destroyers be in front? Well, Tech has a big win over 11-victory East Brunswick Magnet. Dunellen has a pair of games with them this week, on Monday and Wednesday. Our guess is both teams end up in the bottom eight, but stay tuned; there’s lots more baseball to be played!

Further down the standings, South Amboy (3-8, 9.815) is in 13th place, and looking like a solid bottom eight team, but they may have to win a few more games to lock up a spot, which isn’t set in stone yet. Perth Amboy Magnet (2-7, 7.158) can start to make some inroads with a few wins, but they sit in 17th. Same for 18th place Highland Park (2-8, 6.582) and No. 19 Bound Brook (1-8, 5.632). They’ve got a shot, but would have to turn things around.

by Mike Pavlichko

Power Point Analysis: South River, Bernards are highest-ranked in Group 2 Central, North 2

Central Jersey Sports Radio continues to look at the power points races for the state playoffs – now exactly three weeks from the cutoff date of look at power point standings for the NJSIAA baseball playoffs – with a closer look at the Group 2 sections.

For an explanation on the baseball power point formula, check out Thursday’s story on the Group 4 playoff analysis by clicking here. Current analysis is based on standings on NJ.com through games played on Friday, April 25.

Central Jersey Group 2: This might be one of the toughest sections in the state, and the highest-ranked team here from the CJSR coverage area is South River. After a 7-0 win Friday afternoon over GMC Blue leader North Plainfield, the Rams find themselves sixth in the standings with a record of 8-3, and a 16.701 power point average. Other than first-place Governor Livingston (10-0, 27.921), which has a nearly ten-point lead over second-place Manasquan (9-2, 18.104) there are a lot of teams bunched up here. Consider that there are six teams – from seventh place up through second – that are within 2.07 points of each other! That means South River could very well be in play for as high as a two-seed, but a loss of two points could put them as low as 12th. That’s a pretty wide range in any section.

East Brunswick Magnet (11-2, 14.954) – which is having its best year in decades – is in a similar situation. They’re three away from No. 2 – which they won’t realistically reach – but are also just more than two points from missing the playoffs, and yet they currently sit in 10th. They should make it either way, but it demonstrates how tightly-packed this section is, and any prolonged winning or losing streak by even one team could have a profound impact on the standings. Spotswood (8-5, 13.025) checks in at No. 15, and should be a good bet to make the playoffs, but the Chargers might have to on a run if they’re going to solidify that well before the cutoff date. Otherwise, they could end up sweating it out. The good news is, there’s probably only two teams currently out of the playoff picture that could have a realistic chance of getting in: Wall (17th, 6-6, 11.696) and Point Pleasant Boro (18th, 6-5, 11.55). Only two other teams are below them – Jackson Liberty at 3-8 and Willingboro and 0-7 – and neither are withing range.

North Jersey, Section 2, Group 2: The leader here is Passaic Valley at 9-3 with an 18.052 power point average, but they don’t have the biggest of leads. They’re just 1.068 points ahead of second place West Essex (6-4). The only area team here (one of our pet peeves of the classifications) is Bernards. The Mountaineers, despite a 4-7 record, are in the thick of things with a 10.9 average, good for 12th place. They should start on the road, and they should make the playoffs. Nobody from 17th place down has more than three wins, with Leonia at 3-10 and Snyder and Harrison both 1-8 on the year.

by Mike Pavlichko

Power Point Analysis: South and North Plainfield leading the pack in North 2, Group 3 chase

As we continue our look at power point standings for the NJSIAA baseball playoffs – with the cutoff date about three weeks away – South Plainfield and North Plainfield are leading the pack in the North Jersey, Section 2, Group 3 section.

For an explanation on the baseball power point formula, check out Thursday’s story on the Group 4 playoff analysis by clicking here. Current analysis is based on standings on NJ.com through games played on April 24.

North Jersey, Section 2, Group 3: There are actually three Central Jersey Sports Radio teams leading the pack here. First up is South Plainfield, which no doubt got a big boost by sweeping their recent two-game series with Woodbridge, including Tuesday’s 1-0 win heard live on Central Jersey Sports Radio. The Tigers are 9-3 overall, with a power point average of 19.312. They have a decent lead over North Plainfield (8-2, 17.819), the leader in the GMC Blue Division, which hosts third-place South River Friday afternoon at 4:00 at Krausche Field.

There’s a similar distance to the third-place team, Colonia, which is also 8-2, with a 15.385 power point average. After Millburn, Payne Tech and North Hunterdon, JFK (6-5, 13.102) is in seventh, but they’re less than a point-and-a-half out of fifth. A surge my the Mustangs could put them within reach of fourth place, which would get them home field advantage for at least the first two rounds.

Somerville (4-5, 12.154) is less than one point out of eighth place; a top eight finish would guarantee a first-round home game. And Carteret (5-6, 10.764) checks in at No. 11, less than a half-point behind No. 10 Matawan (2-7, 11.171). If the Ramblers could go on a run, they could possibly have a shot at a top eight seed.

Bottom line, as long as Kennedy, The ‘Ville and Carteret keep at least doing what they’re doing, all should make the playoffs. It’s just a matter of where they’ll land.

by Mike Pavlichko

With one week ’til NJSIAA cutoff, here’s how girls’ basketball teams rank in power points, with Rutgers Prep, Gill and Hillsborough in the drivers’ seat for top seeds

We are just a week away from the NJSIAA cutoff for playoff qualification – this coming Saturday – and there’s still a lot of jockeying left to do in every section across the state.

Some teams will make moved, others might drop out and see their bubble burst. The new formula this year – dropping group size but adding opponent winning percentage plus .500 to the mix – has also thrown some uncertainty into the mix.

Read about the changes here, in a story we published earlier this season.

The seeding meeting will be held Tuesday, February 18th by the NJSIAA.

Here’s a look at the current girls’ basketball power point standings, with a week to go, as publicly available at nj.com as of 9 am Sunday, February 9th:

Central Jersey Group 4: Hillsborough (16-4, 26.674) leads the pack here, and by a pretty significant margin over Monroe (14-7, 23.175) at this late date. Three-plus points is a lot to pick up in just a couple of games, with most teams unable to add any residuals (they only count through an opponent’s first 16 games; i.e., a 12-4 team has played 16 games, so a 13th win would not count toward residuals). After that, Franklin (7-13, 19.798) is in fifth, a product of a strong schedule, in the same division as Gill St. Bernard’s, Rutgers Prep and Hillsborough. They could get into the top four, but not so much for East Brunswick (12-9, 18.274), which sits in seventh, trailed closely by Edison (13-9, 17.509) in eighth and South Brunswick (11-10, 17.492) in ninth. Any of those teams, we think, could end up in our out of the top eight, which guarantees at least a home game in the opening round. New Brunswick is down in 12th at 12-2, with 15.131 power points, with Old Bridge (9-12, 14.909) right behind them. Two area teams are on either side of the bubble: Montgomery (7-14, 13.196) sits in 16th place, with North Brunswick (7-13, 12.511) on the outside looking in. The Raiders might still be a long shot, but the Cougars aren’t quite a lock yet, either.

Central Jersey Group 2: Manasquan (17-3, 33.295) is going to be the top seed here, more than nine power points ahead of Rumson-Fair Haven (11-10, 24.166). The first two are teams are at six and seven: Metuchen (18-3, 20.772) in front of Spotswood (17-6, 19.126). Both are more likely than not to finish in the top eight, but it may not be a guarantee yet. Further down, Piscataway Magnet (12-7, 15.293) is in 12th, and should be solidly in. East Brunswick Magnet (4-17, 9.413) is in 17th, but just .103 behind 16th place Monmouth (5-12, 9.516) for the final playoff spot.

Central Jersey Group 1: The leader here is New Providence (19-2, 30.72) and that most likely won’t change. Bound Brook (13-6, 22.252) sits in third, and probably can’t move up, but could drop a bit, even out of the top four. Middlesex is right behind them at 17-6, with 21.945 power points, just .307 behind the Crusaders, and Roselle Park (14-2, 21.343) is only .602 out of the top four. There’s room to move among those three. Highland Park (11-7, 14.86) is in ninth, and has a crack at the top eight, if they can pick up some wins this week. South Amboy (11-11, 13.858) should be in the bottom eight, while Woodbridge Magnet (8-11, 13.396) and Manville (9-8, 12.931) are solidly in the bottom half, at 13 and 14, respectively; they should be in.

North Jersey, Section 2, Group 4: Bayonne (19-5, 30.599) is a pretty good bet to hold on to the top seed, with the first two CJSR-area squads coming in sixth and seventh: Piscataway (9-9, 15.69) followed by Bridgewater-Raritan (8-11, 15.412). But the middle of the pack is tight here, with just 2.043 points separating seven teams, from the Chiefs all the way down to Union (7-11, 14.466) at No. 11. In their midst is also Watchung Hills (9-12, 15.237) in ninth and JP Stevens (10-11, 14.937) in tenth. We thing all are in play for a top-eight seed pending this final week of games. Perth Amboy sits in 15th at 6-14, with 11.868 power points, but isn’t quite a lock yet. Woodbridge (5-16, 10.171) is on the outside of the bubble looking in at 17, a little more than a point out of the field.

North Jersey, Section 2, Group 3: The top-spot is going to go to Chatham (22-1, 38.55) – one of the top public schools in the state – with a more than 15-point drop to No. 2, a spot held by Somerville (16-5, 23.242), and not by a slim margin. They lead Summit by 1.388 points. South Plainfield (13-8, 19.822) sits in sixth, and should be a top eight seed; if it’s not wrapped up, they’re close. Carteret (14-6, 17.834) is in ninth, but has a crack at a home game, especially if the 9th-seeded Ramblers can beat Mother Seton in the preliminary round of the GMC Tournament tomorrow, then take out 18-1 Calvary Christian in Wednesday’s first round. That would be worth a huge amount of power points; keep an eye on that one. Down to 14 and 15 are North Plainfield (5-16, 13.146) and Colonia (5-17, 12.095). Both should make it, but could drop as low as 16, as 17th place Lincoln is almost 2.5 points out of the top 16.

North Jersey, Section 2, Group 2: The only area team in this section is Bernards (16-4, 26.793), which looks like a solid top four team. The question is whether they stay there of flip with third-place Madison (16-5, 26.858), just .065 points ahead of them. Caldwell should hold the top seed at 19-2, with 29.971 points; Rutherford is decently behind them at 17-3, 27.327 power points.

Non-Public North A: Two-time defending State Non-Public Group B champ Morris Catholic (19-0, 38.272) is in first by a mile, with the only CJSR-area team in the section coming in at No. 4: Pingry (15-5, 26.042).

Non-Public South A: It’s between Paul VI (18-0, 35.057) and St. Rose of Belmar (18-4, 34.085) for the top seed here, and a first round bye, with 15 teams in the section, unless someone opts out. The highest-ranked area team is St. Thomas Aquinas (18-6, 25.551) at No. 7, so they should at least get a home game in the first round. But this is a bear of a section, considering where the Trojans are, and they’re the No. 1 seed in the GMCT, beating Red Division foes by more than 40 points a game. Immaculata (10-8, 19.993) should start out on the road, as will Mount St. Mary (10-12, 16.046), which sits in 13th.

Non-Public North B: Gill St. Bernard’s (16-3, 31.843) has a sizable lead here and should be the top-seed, ahead by more than 3.5 power points over Montclair-Immaculate (14-6, 28.306). It’s a 16-team field at the moment, but that is likely going to get winnowed, so we expect the Knights to get a first round bye. Checking in at No. 7 is Mother Seton (15-4, 20.698), and they’re likely to finish top eight and get a first round game at home in Clark.

Non-Public South B: Rutgers Prep (16-3, 31.347) still has a decent lead here of 2.21 power points over Gloucester Catholic (17-4, 29.137). With probably 14 teams in the section, the Argonauts will most assuredly have a first round bye, even if they were to fall to No. 2 – though we doubt that will happen. Calvary Christian (18-1, 25.426) sits in fifth, and will finish top eight, but could break into the top four, just .448 points behind third-place Ranney (14-6, 28.837). Two more local teams are in the middle of the pack: Wardlaw-Hartridge (12-7, 17.387) at No. 8, while Timothy Christian (8-13, 13.122) is in ninth.

by Mike Pavlichko

Breaking down boys’ basketball power points, a week before NJSIAA cutoff, with Colonia and Motgomery still in line for top seeds

As leagues across New Jersey get into their county tournaments for basketball, the NJSIAA cutoff for playoff qualification is this Saturday.

That means just one more week of games for teams to make a move, gain a high seed – maybe a top seed? – or fall out of contention. The new formula this year – dropping group size but adding opponent winning percentage plus .500 to the mix – has also thrown some uncertainty into the mix.

Read about the changes here, in a story we published earlier this season.

The seeding meeting will be held Tuesday, February 18th by the NJSIAA.

Here’s a look at the current boys’ basketball power point standings, with a week to go, as publicly available at nj.com as of 9 am Sunday, February 9th:

Central Jersey Group 4:  Montgomery (17-4, 27.083) still has a sizable lead over second-place Sayreville (18-2, 24.766) and should hold on, no matter how they fare Saturday in their Somerset County Tournament semifinal against Rutgers Prep, since they’re a strong opponent, and more weight is given this year than in the past to strength of schedule. And under the “old” power point system, a team’s top 16 games counted, with lower scores dropped. That’s no longer the case, as games are averaged, so the impact of a big late season win may not make a team skyrocket, but a bad loss could plummet them. Old Bridge (12-9, 19.24) sits in fifth, and we think they should finish at least in the top eight, but they might have a chance to move up a spot and catch Trenton (13-10, 19.477) at four; a nice run in the GMC Tournament could help. Seventh-place Hillsborough (11-9, 18.323) is in a good spot to hold on to a top eight seed, meaning at least a first round home game. East Brunswick (12-10, 17.625) is only .187 points behind 8th-place Marlboro (9-11), so they could crack the top eight as well. Further down, North Brunswick (8-14, 12th, 13.939) and Franklin (5-16, 13th, 13.92) should make it. Edison (12-9, 13.32) should make it, currently at 15, while Monroe is a bit tenuous in 16th at 6-16, with 11.172 power points, just .577 ahead of Princeton (3-17). South Brunswick (6-16, 8th, 9.795) might be a longshot, sitting in 18th, but here’s some intrigue: the Vikings and Falcons will square off in Monroe Tuesday in the GMC Tournament first round. Whoever wins that game faces Colonia, so it could come down to Monday’s game to make-or-break for either squad.

Central Jersey Group 2: While Manasquan (17-3, 32.584) remains solidly at No. 1, it’s not until seven that we see our first CJSR-area team: Metuchen (19-6, 20.744). Odds are they finish in the top eight, with only two teams behind that have a chance to catch them – Delran (14-5, 18.571) and Robbinsville (13-10, 18.462) – though it’s likely both can’t. Spotswood (14-8, 16.553) may not be able to finish much higher, if at all, but there are teams behind in striking distance, including Point Pleasant Boro (10-11, 15.568) and South River (10-9, 15.012).

Central Jersey Group 1: Thrive Charter (16-3, 29.863) has a big lead and should be the No. 1 here, but they’re followed by a number of local teams that are all bunched up. Middlesex (15-6, 21.508) is in second and has barely a one power point lead over Manville (13-6, 20.598) in third. After Point Pleasant Beach (15-6, 19.747), Dunellen is in third at 15-5, with 18.255 power points. The Destroyers might have a crack at the top four, depending what other teams do. Piscataway Magnet (17-5, 15.617) checks in at seven, but they’re no lock for the top eight with even No. 11 Highland Park (12-8, 14.939) just .678 points back, with three teams in between them. That’s a range that’s very much up in the air and could change day-by-day this week. Bound Brook (10-12, 14.306) should be in, as they sit in 13th, with Perth Amboy Magnet (11-8, 13.69) on the right side of the bubble, but a little more tenuous. South Amboy (8-13, 10.709) sits in 19th, 1.277 points out of a playoff spot, and it’s likely they won’t sniff No. 16.

North Jersey, Section 2, Group 4: Plainfield sits atop the section at 20-3, 31.056 power points, but Ridge is not far behind at 17-4, 30.38 power points. The Red Devils face top-seed Gill St. Bernard’s in Saturday’s SCT semifinals – on the cutoff date – and if they could pull off a big upset, that could do the trick, depending on how the Cardinals fare this week. Piscataway (19-4, 26.71) sits in fifth, but could crack the top 4, though probably not get to No. 3; right now they’re just behind fourth-place Westfield (13-8, 26.943). Further down, Bridgewater-Raritan (12-8, 19.116) sits in 12th, comfortably in, by our estimation. But there are three bubble teams near the bottom: Perth Amboy (11-10, 16.338) in 14th and Woodbridge (11-9, 15.999) are at least on the right side of the bubble, but guaranteed of nothing, we think. Watchung Hills (9-12. 15.355) might still have a shot at 17, just .644 out of a playoff spot.

North Jersey, Section 2, Group 3: Three-time defending sectional champ Colonia (18-4, 29.499) has a slim lead at No. 1. Despite shocking national power La Lumiere (IN) with a late rally Friday night in the Metro Classic at Franklin, out-of-state teams are worth less in strength of schedule than in-state (.500 as winning percentage, plus .500, rather than the true winning percentage, which would have been .591, giving them a 1.091) so the Patriots didn’t get as much of a bump as you might have thought. They’re barely holding off Mendham (18-3, 29.247), but they might, in the end. As the top seed in the GMC Tournament, they could play two games in the event by the cutoff, but they’ll all be lesser teams record-wise, so this could go down to the wire. Somerville (16-6, 26.052) sits in fourth, and could see a challenge from Chatham behind them at 15-5, with 25.995 power points. South Plainfield should finish top eight, but we don’t think they have a chance at the top four at 15-6, with 21.124 points, a significant gap even to No. 5. All the way down, North Plainfield (11-11, 13.923) is at 17, but knocking on the door, just .713 power points behind North Hunterdon (8-12, 14.636).

North Jersey, Section 2, Group 2: Caldwell (16-2, 30.217) leads by a good bunch here, where the only CJSR-area squad is Bernards (11-9, 19.181) sitting in 12th. But they still could crack the top eight, as the seventh place team, Voorhees (14-5, 20.809) is just 1.628 points ahead, with Lyndhurst, Synder, West Morris and Hillside all in between. A lot of jockeying could take place here in the final week.

Non-Public South A: It could be a toss-up between St. Peter’s Prep (18-3, 33.935) and Paul VI (19-2, 33.501) for the top seed, but it’s down to six and seven for the first two local clubs: Immaculata (15-6, 25.192) is in sixth, with St. Thomas Aquinas (13-7, 22.458) in seventh. Further down, there’s Pingry (6-10, 16.989) and St. Joseph-Metuchen (6-12, 16.352) in 11th and 12th, respectively. Everyone who wants to makes it here, so this should be a 14-team field, with the top two seeds getting byes.

Non-Public North B: Gill St. Bernard’s (17-2, 32.599) still might be in play here, and it’s possible a win over Ridge Saturday in the SCT semifinals could catapult them to the No. 1 seed overall over Roselle Catholic (18-4, 33.66), which is just 1.061 ahead. Timothy Christian (12-7, 15.175) is holding the eight seed at the moment, and probably can go no higher but could very well remain at eight and get a first round home game against a Montclair-Immaculate (10-13) or Saddle River Day (9-9). Further down, Wardlaw-Hartridge sits in 12th out of 15, assuming all participate, at 5-15, with 8.272 points.

Non-Public South B: St. Rose of Belmar (15-7, 27.503) leads the pack, but not by that much over Rutgers Prep (14.8, 26.39), which sits in seconf with a few teams like Holy Cross Prep (15-6, 26.091), Bishop Eustace (15-6, 25.853) and St. Joseph-Hammonton (20-4, 25.122) breathing down their necks. The Argonauts should finish in the top four, it’s just a matter of where. Calvary Christian (1-16, 8.522) of Old Bridge, sits in 13th, if they don’t opt-out.

by Mike Pavlichko

If you think the football playoff formula is confusing, take a look at basketball for 2025

“Back in the day,” as the older folks say, power points were simple.

Six points for a win, residuals from your opponents, plus group size. Total it up at the cutoff date, and your teams were seeded. Simple enough.

But there was little nuance to it, so the NJSIAA has tweaked the formula in various sports.

Power points are still around (somewhat, but for how long?) in high school football. Group points have been eliminated in all sports, as the NJSIAA no longer considers group size a good representative of quality. But in basketball, they’ve added a new wrinkle.

Quality and residual points remain, but a third part of power points will be a strength of schedule factor called OOWP, which stands for “Opponents’ Opponent Winning Percentage.” That number is weighted however; it’s the actual win percentage plus .500. So, a team that’s 3-1, with a .750 win percentage would add .500 to that, and their OOWP would be 1.250.

(Note: Out-of-state opponents are assigned a .500 winning percentage for the purposes of OOWP and residuals.)

Each game is be worth the following:

  • 6 points for a win, 0 for a loss (there are no ties in basketball)
  • 3 residuals for every win by an opponent you beat, and 1 for every win by an opponent you lost to

That total is then multiplied by the OOWP number, giving the power point value for that game.

The values are then averaged by the number of games played. All games count, but 16 is the minimum to be divided by. So, a team that plays 14 games would have their total still divided by 16. A team that plays 20 would be divided by 20.

So, how does this work in practicality?

Let’s take Colonia for example, which is 3-0, counting residuals as of December 24th. Each game is worth 6 quality points, since Colonia beat them all.

  • St. Peter’s Prep: 3-2, OOWP 1.067, 9 residuals
  • Piscataway: 2-1, OOWP 1.250, 6 residuals
  • Woodbridge: 1-2, OOWP .944, 3 residuals

Now, since they beat all three teams, let’s add the quality points, and find the three factors for each game:

  • St. Peter’s Prep: (6 quality points + 9 residuals) x .1.067 OOWP
  • Piscataway: (6 quality points + 6 residuals) x .1.250 OOWP
  • Woodbridge: (6 quality points + 3 residuals) x .944 OOWP

Adding the quality and residual points, we then multiply by the OOWP:

  • St. Peter’s Prep: 15 x 1.067 = 16.005
  • Piscataway: 12 x 1.250 = 15
  • Woodbridge: 9 x .944 = 8.496

The total of all those points is: 16.005 + 15 + 8.496 = 39.501

Then we divide that total by the three games played and get: 13.167.

Now, if you look at the calculations on NJ.com, you’ll see they have 2.469 for Colonia. What gives?

It appears as though they are dividing all teams by 16 games, since none has played nearly that many so far. Just about everybody will play way more than that, meaning those that don’t will be very unlikely to be eligible for the state tournament.

Most teams should get to 16 by late January. The Patriots should be there (baring snow cancellations or reschedules) on January 23rd, when St. Thomas Aquinas visits, in a game you can hear on Central Jersey Sports Radio.

The NJSIAA Cutoff Date is February 15th, about three weeks later.

Unless NJ.com changes its “divide by 16” policy, we will start taking a closer look at playoff projections around the end of January, once the majority of teams have played 16 games. Look for it in late January.

by Mike Pavlichko

NJSIAA publishes 2024 football tournament regulations; playoff formula tweaked again, and “consolation” games are out

The NJSIAA posted its 2024 football tournament regulations on its website Wednesday, and they reflect two big changes made to the playoff system back earlier this year.

The first has to do with multipliers. In a change that’s in line with what Central Jersey Sports Radio’s Mike Pavlichko has proposed since the multiplier was first introduced almost a decade ago, multipliers will vary from team-to-team in each category, and now are based on Strength Index value rather than a fixed amount. That means the numbers are based more on an actual team’s performance, rather than all teams in one category being equal, regardless of their record.

The second change has to do with power points. For decades it has had three components: quality points (6 for a win, 3 for a tie, none for a loss), group points (based on an opponent’s group classification, 5 for a win over a Group 5 school, 4 for a Group 4, etc.) and residuals (3 points for every win by an opponent you beat, 1 for every win by an opponent you lost to).

But now, group points are out of the equation, the reasoning being that group size has taken on less importance over the years as it related to the quality of teams. And the change is being made across all sports

The NJSIAA says it still values power points, but in reality, group points were the only real difference between power points and OSI.

Both reward teams for winning. A victory gets you six quality points in the power point formula and the full value of an opponent’s Strength Index value. A loss garners no quality points and half an opponent’s SI.

Both reward teams for strength of schedule. Power point residuals earn a team 3 points for every win by a team they beat (up to their seventh game), and one for every win by a team they lost to, while strength of schedule is inherent in the OSI system, as SI values determine a team’s strength based on the scores of games, more than wins or losses.

In fact, the SI system is likely more accurate, since not all wins are created equal. If Teams A and B both have 5 wins, and you beat both teams, you get 5 points each, even if Team A beat all the top teams on its schedule and Team B beat all the weakest teams.

The NJSIAA’s football regulations for 2024 can be downloaded from their site by clicking here.

Bye-bye consolation games…

Though traditional consolation games also have been tweaked in recent years, with the NJSIAA calling it an “invitational tournament” last year, the state athletic association decided earlier this year to do away with it entirely.

Over the years, there had been controversies with matchups, and many teams had to travel long distances to play otherwise meaningless games. So, this year, the NJSIAA has dropped consolation games entirely, and will leave it up to schools that missed the playoffs to schedule their own games.

Those games must fall within the NJSIAA’s scheduling framework, with a maximum 14 games allowed through December 1. Games also are not allowed to be played on Fridays, which is when the vast majority of state tournament games are played, in order to make playoff games a priority for getting the best officials.

Other changes…

The NJSIAA also modified its running clock rule, which previously went into effect automatically once the score differential reached 33 points or more during the second half in a game. The running clock would go back to normal once the margin got closer than 25 points.

But the NJSIAA says there have been concerns about unsportsmanlike behavior during the running clock period, and the Executive Committee approved a rule to keep the running clock in place no matter how close the game gets. So once the margin is at least 33 points in the second half, the running clock stays in place for good.

Another change adopted in February allows football players to participate in more than one scheduled game within 24 hours. A two-year pilot program changes the limit to no more than five quarters in the same time period. That would allow a student-athlete to play, for example, two quarters of a JV game Thursday, and three in a varsity game Friday.

In its proposal to the Executive Committee, the NJSIAA wrote: “This recommendation has been reviewed and endorsed by the NJSIAA Sports Medical Advisory Committee (SMAC). However, NJSIAA SMAC recommends that this rule be approved under a two-year pilot program to solicit feedback and data before supporting full adoption.”

The idea is to allow greater flexibility to programs that may have low participation to field multiple levels of teams, as opposed to, say, having to drop a freshman team.