St. Joseph’s Jeremy DeCaro (#26) leaps an Eagle defender on a 64-yard pick six in the first half of a 35-14 win at Edison on October 6, 2023. The Falcons would be a Tier D multiplier under new playoff rules adopted by the NJSIAA last week. (Photo: Marcus Borden)
For those high school sports fans with a laser focus on Championship Week in basketball – which culminated over the weekend with Friday’s GMC title games, and Saturday’s SCT finals – the approval of changes to the football playoff system last week may have fallen under the radar.
But an initial analysis of the tweaks okayed by the NJSIAA’s Executive Committee last week shows the new rules should bring a little more sanity – and fairness – to how multipliers affect playoff standing, even if it makes the system slightly more complicated.
In essence, it boils down to this: Multipliers – non-public schools deemed strong enough that they should be worth extra points to public opponents, as an incentive to play tougher schedules – are getting a complete overhaul: the multiplier will be based more on a team’s strength, and is moving from power points into the OSI category.
Since 2016, non-public multiplier schools have been worth a fixed value in power points, rather than a value based on group size, a win or loss, and residuals. Multipliers were broken into three tiers, with Tier A (schools like Don Bosco or Bergen Catholic) being worth 48 points for a win, 32 for a loss. Tier B (Delbarton, Red Bank Catholic, etc.) was worth 42 for a win, 28 for a loss. Tier C (like St. John Vianney, St. Thomas Aquinas) were worth 36 for a win, 24 for a loss. Those numbers were fixed whether the non-public school went undefeated, or had a slew of injuries and ended up 2-7.
The change approved last week shifts the multiplier component from power points to OSI. The OSI – Opponent Strength Index – is 60 percent of the UPR formula, while power points are worth 40 percent. Teams get the full Strength Index value of an opponent they beat, and half the value for an opponent they lost to. If Team A beats Team B with a Strength Index value of 80, their OSI value is 80 for a win, 40 for a loss.
The change means a public school that loses to a Tier A multiplier would still get full points for a win, but 80 percent for a loss instead of 50 percent. Tier B would get 75 percent for a loss, Tier C 70 percent, and Tier D 70 percent.
There would be no multiplier for a non-public that beats a multiplier; they still get half for a win, full points for a loss.
This is a big shift, because teams that beat a previous Tier A multiplier would get 48 points, a number that couldn’t be reached even by beating the best undefeated Group 5 public school in the state. Under the current system, where only a team’s first seven residuals count, the most one could get for beating an 8-0 Group 5 school (making them 8-1) would be 33 points (6 quality points for the win, 5 group points, and 21 residuals). Even beating a Tier C multiplier was worth three more points, 36.
In addition, any win by a public school over a non-public multiplier would knock them down one level. So, if Bergen Catholic, a Tier A multiplier, lost to a public school, they would become a Tier B team. Another loss would send them to Tier C. And so on. It would be possible to completely lose the multiplier with a fourth loss.
Tier B multipliers would lose that status entirely with three losses. Tier C would take two losses to be stripped of multiplier status. And Team D multipliers would be out with one loss. Any team that beat them while they were a multiplier also would lose the multiplier points.
Inotherwords, if two public schools lost to a Team D multiplier in Weeks 1 and 2, they would get 70 percent for those losses, instead of 50 percent. But if that Team D school loses to a public school in Week 3, they would lose multiplier status, and all opponents – including the Week 1 and 2 opponents – would get the normal 50 percent multiplier value.
Teams cannot regain multiplier status, nor move up, in the same season. Those changes can only be made in the off-season.
Here’s the key explanation from the NJSIAA on the rule, and why we think this is a good idea: “The committee feels that this new addition will act as a safeguard against non-public schools that quickly fall off or don’t perform well, which we have seen across the entire state in the last 4-5 years. Furthermore, the OSI multiplier will also consider and value each non-public school’s independent value rather than a generic point assignment.”
We’re on board there.
Here are the multiplier category assignments as proposed and approved by the NJSIAA:
- Tier A (100% value for wins, 80% for losses, 4 public losses eliminates multiplier): Bergen Catholic, Delbarton, Red Bank Catholic, St. Joe’s-Montvale
- Tier B (100% for wins, 75% for losses, 3 public losses eliminates multiplier): DePaul, Don Bosco, Donovan Catholic, Pope John, Seton Hall Prep, St. Augustine, St. Thomas Aquinas
- Tier C (100% for wins, 70% for losses, 2 public losses eliminates multiplier): Holy Spirit, Paramus Catholic, St. Peter’s Prep
- Tier D (100% for wins, 70% for losses, 1 public loss eliminates multiplier): Notre Dame, Paul VI, St. John Vianney, St. Joseph-Metuchen
Based on the above, a loss to St. Joseph would garner 70 percent of the OSI value to a public school. But if the Falcons lost a single game that season to a public school, they are no longer a multiplier, and even teams that beat them when they were would get just 50 percent for a loss, like other schools.
That rule would likely not affect the Tier A multipliers, since Bergen Catholic and their ilk rarely, if ever, play public schools.
We’ve been pushing for years the idea of switching to a “true multiplier” with power points, that would be, say, an extra 20 percent of 15 percent value based on the actual power points. This, we feel, is in the same spirit, and a positive move by the NJSIAA.
And what about schools that don’t think it’s fair to lose the multiplier in the middle of the year? We say, if they school is a multiplier, they shouldn’t be losing to public schools. What does the NJSIAA say?
In its proposal to the Executive Committee, it says, “The group feels that this is a great safeguard, and it is also not an arguable point by any public schools that no longer receive the additional percentage. The non-public school proved to be more of a common opponent, and they should be valued as such.”
We agree.
We also believe this levels the playing field for teams that don’t play multipliers. It lessens the impact of multipliers, which we believe can impact many other teams in a playoff section who don’t play multipliers. The original intent of multipliers were to give public schools incentive to play non-publics like Don Bosco or Bergen Catholic, which had trouble scheduling non-league games. But they don’t anymore, and schools like St. Joseph-Metuchen or St. Thomas Aquinas never had that problem. The Big Central assigns them divisional and crossover games, with Week 0 left open for an opponent of the school’s choosing, or they can start Week 1.
The NJSIAA also made other changes including how it assigns non-publics to Group A or B for the state playoffs. Previously, the total number of non-publics was split evenly down the middle, with an extra team going into the B group. But with declining enrollment and many Group B teams opting out of the playoffs entirely, fewer teams were in the Group B playoff bracket, and some smaller schools were in with mammoth powerhouses from North Jersey in Group A.
The changes approved last week will put non-publics equivalent in size to a Group 5, 4 or 3 school in Group A, and the remaining schools in Group B.
New classifications will be done this year, but based on last year’s classifications, here’s how it would have looked in 2023:
Non-Public A
Group 5: St. Peter’s Prep, Seton Hall Prep
Group 4: Bergen Catholic, Don Bosco Prep
Group 3: Delbarton, Paramus Catholic, St. Augustine, St. John Vianney, St. Joseph-Metuchen, St. Joe’s-Montvale
Non-Public B
Group 2: Donovan Catholic, Notre Dame, Paul VI, Pope John
Group 1: Bishop Eustace, Camden Catholic, DePaul, Gloucester Catholic, Holy Cross, Holy Spirit, Hudson Catholic, Immaculata, Montclair-Kimberley, Morris Catholic, Morristown-Beard, Newark Academy, Pingry, Red Bank Catholic, St. Joe’s-Hammonton, St. Mary-Rutherford, St. Thomas Aquinas
We’re hoping this changes with next year’s classifications, because – with all due respect – we don’t believe St. Joe’s-Metuchen belongs in the same playoff section with Bergen Catholic and Don Bosco. Those North Jersey powerhouses are often nationally ranked. St. Joe’s also would be among the three smallest schools in that grouping. Seton Hall Prep is almost twice its size. But that’s another topic for another day.
Other changes coming, too…
The NJSIAA also modified its running clock rule, which starts one the score differential reaches 33 points or more during the second half in a game. The running clock would go back to normal once the margin got closer than 25 points. But the NJSIAA says there have been concerns about unsportsmanlike behavior during the running clock period, and the Executive Committee approved a rule to keep the running clock in place no matter how close the game gets. So once the margin is at least 33 points in the second half, the running clock stays in place for good.
We haven’t seen many games at CJSR with a running clock, but very few ever remain competitive. To us, anything that can limit the number of plays in such a blowout – thus limiting the chances for injury – is a good thing, whether teams are being good sports or not.
The NJSIAA also previously would not allow football players to participate in more than one scheduled game within 24 hours. But the Executive Committee adopted a two-year pilot program to change the limit to no more than five quarters in the same time period. That would allow a student-athlete to play, for example, two quarters of a JV game Thursday, and three in a varsity game Friday.
In its proposal to the Executive Committee, the NJSIAA wrote: “This recommendation has been reviewed and endorsed by the NJSIAA Sports Medical Advisory Committee (SMAC). However, NJSIAA SMAC recommends that this rule be approved under a two-year pilot program to solicit feedback and data before supporting full adoption.”
We agree here – and applaud trying it out first rather than making it permament – since it allows greater flexibility to programs that may have low participation to field multiple levels of teams, as opposed to, say, having to drop a freshman team.
Overall, the changes seem good. While the NJSIAA has said it still values power points, we think over the years it will find the OSI is a much more accurate and fair depiction of a team’s season. Eventually, we believe power points should disappear entirely. Both OSI and power points have a win factor (6 quality points for a win, none for a loss in power points, full value for wins and half for losses in OSI) and both have a strength factor (residuals for power points, while OSI is – on its own – a strength factor). The only difference is the group size.
The NJSIAA could get rid of that entirely, or even fold it into OSI, such as an extra 10 points for beating a Group 5, eight points for beating a Group 4, etc. Either way, we believe in the coming years, such a change should be considered.
It wouldn’t change much of who gets the top seeds or who makes the playoffs. In fact, an analysis by Central Jersey Sports Radio of the 2022 playoffs found that just using OSI versus the UPR would have resulted in only seven different teams being in the public school playoffs out of 160 that qualified, a mere four percent – and most of them in the bottom four of the top 16, teams that generally don’t win titles anyway.