Breaking down boys’ basketball power points, a week before NJSIAA cutoff, with Colonia and Motgomery still in line for top seeds

As leagues across New Jersey get into their county tournaments for basketball, the NJSIAA cutoff for playoff qualification is this Saturday.

That means just one more week of games for teams to make a move, gain a high seed – maybe a top seed? – or fall out of contention. The new formula this year – dropping group size but adding opponent winning percentage plus .500 to the mix – has also thrown some uncertainty into the mix.

Read about the changes here, in a story we published earlier this season.

The seeding meeting will be held Tuesday, February 18th by the NJSIAA.

Here’s a look at the current boys’ basketball power point standings, with a week to go, as publicly available at nj.com as of 9 am Sunday, February 9th:

Central Jersey Group 4:  Montgomery (17-4, 27.083) still has a sizable lead over second-place Sayreville (18-2, 24.766) and should hold on, no matter how they fare Saturday in their Somerset County Tournament semifinal against Rutgers Prep, since they’re a strong opponent, and more weight is given this year than in the past to strength of schedule. And under the “old” power point system, a team’s top 16 games counted, with lower scores dropped. That’s no longer the case, as games are averaged, so the impact of a big late season win may not make a team skyrocket, but a bad loss could plummet them. Old Bridge (12-9, 19.24) sits in fifth, and we think they should finish at least in the top eight, but they might have a chance to move up a spot and catch Trenton (13-10, 19.477) at four; a nice run in the GMC Tournament could help. Seventh-place Hillsborough (11-9, 18.323) is in a good spot to hold on to a top eight seed, meaning at least a first round home game. East Brunswick (12-10, 17.625) is only .187 points behind 8th-place Marlboro (9-11), so they could crack the top eight as well. Further down, North Brunswick (8-14, 12th, 13.939) and Franklin (5-16, 13th, 13.92) should make it. Edison (12-9, 13.32) should make it, currently at 15, while Monroe is a bit tenuous in 16th at 6-16, with 11.172 power points, just .577 ahead of Princeton (3-17). South Brunswick (6-16, 8th, 9.795) might be a longshot, sitting in 18th, but here’s some intrigue: the Vikings and Falcons will square off in Monroe Tuesday in the GMC Tournament first round. Whoever wins that game faces Colonia, so it could come down to Monday’s game to make-or-break for either squad.

Central Jersey Group 2: While Manasquan (17-3, 32.584) remains solidly at No. 1, it’s not until seven that we see our first CJSR-area team: Metuchen (19-6, 20.744). Odds are they finish in the top eight, with only two teams behind that have a chance to catch them – Delran (14-5, 18.571) and Robbinsville (13-10, 18.462) – though it’s likely both can’t. Spotswood (14-8, 16.553) may not be able to finish much higher, if at all, but there are teams behind in striking distance, including Point Pleasant Boro (10-11, 15.568) and South River (10-9, 15.012).

Central Jersey Group 1: Thrive Charter (16-3, 29.863) has a big lead and should be the No. 1 here, but they’re followed by a number of local teams that are all bunched up. Middlesex (15-6, 21.508) is in second and has barely a one power point lead over Manville (13-6, 20.598) in third. After Point Pleasant Beach (15-6, 19.747), Dunellen is in third at 15-5, with 18.255 power points. The Destroyers might have a crack at the top four, depending what other teams do. Piscataway Magnet (17-5, 15.617) checks in at seven, but they’re no lock for the top eight with even No. 11 Highland Park (12-8, 14.939) just .678 points back, with three teams in between them. That’s a range that’s very much up in the air and could change day-by-day this week. Bound Brook (10-12, 14.306) should be in, as they sit in 13th, with Perth Amboy Magnet (11-8, 13.69) on the right side of the bubble, but a little more tenuous. South Amboy (8-13, 10.709) sits in 19th, 1.277 points out of a playoff spot, and it’s likely they won’t sniff No. 16.

North Jersey, Section 2, Group 4: Plainfield sits atop the section at 20-3, 31.056 power points, but Ridge is not far behind at 17-4, 30.38 power points. The Red Devils face top-seed Gill St. Bernard’s in Saturday’s SCT semifinals – on the cutoff date – and if they could pull off a big upset, that could do the trick, depending on how the Cardinals fare this week. Piscataway (19-4, 26.71) sits in fifth, but could crack the top 4, though probably not get to No. 3; right now they’re just behind fourth-place Westfield (13-8, 26.943). Further down, Bridgewater-Raritan (12-8, 19.116) sits in 12th, comfortably in, by our estimation. But there are three bubble teams near the bottom: Perth Amboy (11-10, 16.338) in 14th and Woodbridge (11-9, 15.999) are at least on the right side of the bubble, but guaranteed of nothing, we think. Watchung Hills (9-12. 15.355) might still have a shot at 17, just .644 out of a playoff spot.

North Jersey, Section 2, Group 3: Three-time defending sectional champ Colonia (18-4, 29.499) has a slim lead at No. 1. Despite shocking national power La Lumiere (IN) with a late rally Friday night in the Metro Classic at Franklin, out-of-state teams are worth less in strength of schedule than in-state (.500 as winning percentage, plus .500, rather than the true winning percentage, which would have been .591, giving them a 1.091) so the Patriots didn’t get as much of a bump as you might have thought. They’re barely holding off Mendham (18-3, 29.247), but they might, in the end. As the top seed in the GMC Tournament, they could play two games in the event by the cutoff, but they’ll all be lesser teams record-wise, so this could go down to the wire. Somerville (16-6, 26.052) sits in fourth, and could see a challenge from Chatham behind them at 15-5, with 25.995 power points. South Plainfield should finish top eight, but we don’t think they have a chance at the top four at 15-6, with 21.124 points, a significant gap even to No. 5. All the way down, North Plainfield (11-11, 13.923) is at 17, but knocking on the door, just .713 power points behind North Hunterdon (8-12, 14.636).

North Jersey, Section 2, Group 2: Caldwell (16-2, 30.217) leads by a good bunch here, where the only CJSR-area squad is Bernards (11-9, 19.181) sitting in 12th. But they still could crack the top eight, as the seventh place team, Voorhees (14-5, 20.809) is just 1.628 points ahead, with Lyndhurst, Synder, West Morris and Hillside all in between. A lot of jockeying could take place here in the final week.

Non-Public South A: It could be a toss-up between St. Peter’s Prep (18-3, 33.935) and Paul VI (19-2, 33.501) for the top seed, but it’s down to six and seven for the first two local clubs: Immaculata (15-6, 25.192) is in sixth, with St. Thomas Aquinas (13-7, 22.458) in seventh. Further down, there’s Pingry (6-10, 16.989) and St. Joseph-Metuchen (6-12, 16.352) in 11th and 12th, respectively. Everyone who wants to makes it here, so this should be a 14-team field, with the top two seeds getting byes.

Non-Public North B: Gill St. Bernard’s (17-2, 32.599) still might be in play here, and it’s possible a win over Ridge Saturday in the SCT semifinals could catapult them to the No. 1 seed overall over Roselle Catholic (18-4, 33.66), which is just 1.061 ahead. Timothy Christian (12-7, 15.175) is holding the eight seed at the moment, and probably can go no higher but could very well remain at eight and get a first round home game against a Montclair-Immaculate (10-13) or Saddle River Day (9-9). Further down, Wardlaw-Hartridge sits in 12th out of 15, assuming all participate, at 5-15, with 8.272 points.

Non-Public South B: St. Rose of Belmar (15-7, 27.503) leads the pack, but not by that much over Rutgers Prep (14.8, 26.39), which sits in seconf with a few teams like Holy Cross Prep (15-6, 26.091), Bishop Eustace (15-6, 25.853) and St. Joseph-Hammonton (20-4, 25.122) breathing down their necks. The Argonauts should finish in the top four, it’s just a matter of where. Calvary Christian (1-16, 8.522) of Old Bridge, sits in 13th, if they don’t opt-out.