We are just a week away from the NJSIAA cutoff for playoff qualification – this coming Saturday – and there’s still a lot of jockeying left to do in every section across the state.
Some teams will make moved, others might drop out and see their bubble burst. The new formula this year – dropping group size but adding opponent winning percentage plus .500 to the mix – has also thrown some uncertainty into the mix.
Read about the changes here, in a story we published earlier this season.
The seeding meeting will be held Tuesday, February 18th by the NJSIAA.
Here’s a look at the current girls’ basketball power point standings, with a week to go, as publicly available at nj.com as of 9 am Sunday, February 9th:
Central Jersey Group 4: Hillsborough (16-4, 26.674) leads the pack here, and by a pretty significant margin over Monroe (14-7, 23.175) at this late date. Three-plus points is a lot to pick up in just a couple of games, with most teams unable to add any residuals (they only count through an opponent’s first 16 games; i.e., a 12-4 team has played 16 games, so a 13th win would not count toward residuals). After that, Franklin (7-13, 19.798) is in fifth, a product of a strong schedule, in the same division as Gill St. Bernard’s, Rutgers Prep and Hillsborough. They could get into the top four, but not so much for East Brunswick (12-9, 18.274), which sits in seventh, trailed closely by Edison (13-9, 17.509) in eighth and South Brunswick (11-10, 17.492) in ninth. Any of those teams, we think, could end up in our out of the top eight, which guarantees at least a home game in the opening round. New Brunswick is down in 12th at 12-2, with 15.131 power points, with Old Bridge (9-12, 14.909) right behind them. Two area teams are on either side of the bubble: Montgomery (7-14, 13.196) sits in 16th place, with North Brunswick (7-13, 12.511) on the outside looking in. The Raiders might still be a long shot, but the Cougars aren’t quite a lock yet, either.
Central Jersey Group 2: Manasquan (17-3, 33.295) is going to be the top seed here, more than nine power points ahead of Rumson-Fair Haven (11-10, 24.166). The first two are teams are at six and seven: Metuchen (18-3, 20.772) in front of Spotswood (17-6, 19.126). Both are more likely than not to finish in the top eight, but it may not be a guarantee yet. Further down, Piscataway Magnet (12-7, 15.293) is in 12th, and should be solidly in. East Brunswick Magnet (4-17, 9.413) is in 17th, but just .103 behind 16th place Monmouth (5-12, 9.516) for the final playoff spot.
Central Jersey Group 1: The leader here is New Providence (19-2, 30.72) and that most likely won’t change. Bound Brook (13-6, 22.252) sits in third, and probably can’t move up, but could drop a bit, even out of the top four. Middlesex is right behind them at 17-6, with 21.945 power points, just .307 behind the Crusaders, and Roselle Park (14-2, 21.343) is only .602 out of the top four. There’s room to move among those three. Highland Park (11-7, 14.86) is in ninth, and has a crack at the top eight, if they can pick up some wins this week. South Amboy (11-11, 13.858) should be in the bottom eight, while Woodbridge Magnet (8-11, 13.396) and Manville (9-8, 12.931) are solidly in the bottom half, at 13 and 14, respectively; they should be in.
North Jersey, Section 2, Group 4: Bayonne (19-5, 30.599) is a pretty good bet to hold on to the top seed, with the first two CJSR-area squads coming in sixth and seventh: Piscataway (9-9, 15.69) followed by Bridgewater-Raritan (8-11, 15.412). But the middle of the pack is tight here, with just 2.043 points separating seven teams, from the Chiefs all the way down to Union (7-11, 14.466) at No. 11. In their midst is also Watchung Hills (9-12, 15.237) in ninth and JP Stevens (10-11, 14.937) in tenth. We thing all are in play for a top-eight seed pending this final week of games. Perth Amboy sits in 15th at 6-14, with 11.868 power points, but isn’t quite a lock yet. Woodbridge (5-16, 10.171) is on the outside of the bubble looking in at 17, a little more than a point out of the field.
North Jersey, Section 2, Group 3: The top-spot is going to go to Chatham (22-1, 38.55) – one of the top public schools in the state – with a more than 15-point drop to No. 2, a spot held by Somerville (16-5, 23.242), and not by a slim margin. They lead Summit by 1.388 points. South Plainfield (13-8, 19.822) sits in sixth, and should be a top eight seed; if it’s not wrapped up, they’re close. Carteret (14-6, 17.834) is in ninth, but has a crack at a home game, especially if the 9th-seeded Ramblers can beat Mother Seton in the preliminary round of the GMC Tournament tomorrow, then take out 18-1 Calvary Christian in Wednesday’s first round. That would be worth a huge amount of power points; keep an eye on that one. Down to 14 and 15 are North Plainfield (5-16, 13.146) and Colonia (5-17, 12.095). Both should make it, but could drop as low as 16, as 17th place Lincoln is almost 2.5 points out of the top 16.
North Jersey, Section 2, Group 2: The only area team in this section is Bernards (16-4, 26.793), which looks like a solid top four team. The question is whether they stay there of flip with third-place Madison (16-5, 26.858), just .065 points ahead of them. Caldwell should hold the top seed at 19-2, with 29.971 points; Rutherford is decently behind them at 17-3, 27.327 power points.
Non-Public North A: Two-time defending State Non-Public Group B champ Morris Catholic (19-0, 38.272) is in first by a mile, with the only CJSR-area team in the section coming in at No. 4: Pingry (15-5, 26.042).
Non-Public South A: It’s between Paul VI (18-0, 35.057) and St. Rose of Belmar (18-4, 34.085) for the top seed here, and a first round bye, with 15 teams in the section, unless someone opts out. The highest-ranked area team is St. Thomas Aquinas (18-6, 25.551) at No. 7, so they should at least get a home game in the first round. But this is a bear of a section, considering where the Trojans are, and they’re the No. 1 seed in the GMCT, beating Red Division foes by more than 40 points a game. Immaculata (10-8, 19.993) should start out on the road, as will Mount St. Mary (10-12, 16.046), which sits in 13th.
Non-Public North B: Gill St. Bernard’s (16-3, 31.843) has a sizable lead here and should be the top-seed, ahead by more than 3.5 power points over Montclair-Immaculate (14-6, 28.306). It’s a 16-team field at the moment, but that is likely going to get winnowed, so we expect the Knights to get a first round bye. Checking in at No. 7 is Mother Seton (15-4, 20.698), and they’re likely to finish top eight and get a first round game at home in Clark.
Non-Public South B: Rutgers Prep (16-3, 31.347) still has a decent lead here of 2.21 power points over Gloucester Catholic (17-4, 29.137). With probably 14 teams in the section, the Argonauts will most assuredly have a first round bye, even if they were to fall to No. 2 – though we doubt that will happen. Calvary Christian (18-1, 25.426) sits in fifth, and will finish top eight, but could break into the top four, just .448 points behind third-place Ranney (14-6, 28.837). Two more local teams are in the middle of the pack: Wardlaw-Hartridge (12-7, 17.387) at No. 8, while Timothy Christian (8-13, 13.122) is in ninth.