Ridge in a quad scrimmage at Somerville on August 18, 2026. (Photo: Marcus Borden)
As we get closer to Cutoff Weekend in New Jersey High School football, we’ll be taking a more detailed look each week at the standings, and the scenarios involving every public school in the Big Central Conference in contention for a playoff spot.
This season’s playoff coverage – both leading up to and in the postseason – is proudly presented by Dayton Collision on Route 130 in South Brunswick! That includes all our analysis over the next few weeks, as well as our LIVE Playoff Projection Show, scheduled for Saturday evening, October 23rd, and tentatively set for 6 pm.
Here’s a detailed team-by-team look at the North Group 4 and North Group 3 Supersections as we head into Week 6 play this Thursday, Friday and Saturday. (Note: There are no Big Central teams classified in South Group 3 or Group 4.)
NORTH GROUP 4:
- Even after an upset of previously top-ranked Phillipsburg last Friday night, Ridge (3-2, 3.80 UPR) might find it too steep a challenge to get one of the two top seeds, but we don’t think it’s exactly out of the question. A lot of this could come down to strength of schedule, and how much that impacts SI values, and by extension, OSI. For now, the Red Devils are in fourth, just .4 behind third-place Roxbury (4-2, 3.40), but nearly two full points behind second-place Northern Highlands (4-2, 2.00), and exactly two behind first-place Middletown North (5-0, 1.80). One of the concepts we talk about every year is that it’s harder for teams high in the standings to make jumps with wins than it is for lower teams. Why? Consider the math: If you add one win to a team that has ten wins, your win total increased just ten percent. But if you are a team that has five wins, your win total increases by 20 percent; you can make a bigger jump. But here’s where that could help the Red Devils, who despite a 3-2 record, are boosted by their tough schedule. And every team around them from third up to first and fifth down to seventh has more wins than them. That means a win by Ridge should have more of an impact than wins by those other teams. So maybe they can make up some ground? The Red Devils close with Westfield home, at Hillsborough, and against Old Bridge the final weekend, and even though the Blue Devils and Raiders are both 1-5, their SI values – both over 50 – shouldn’t hurt Ridge too much. Assuming they win both, this may come down to the Old Bridge game, currently worth 75.79 OSI points. So, this might take a while to determine.
- Right behind the Knights is Rahway (5-1, 4.00), so they’re almost as close as Ridge, but they have a stronger schedule SI-wise, with all three opponents over 60, and Rahway in the mid-70s SI-wise. Can they earn a top-seed? Maybe. They might actually need some help from the teams they need to beat. Can they end up in the top four, guaranteeing the Madden Field advantage through at least the sectional semifinals? Absolutely: there are just 0.60 UPR points separating the Indians, Ridge and Roxbury.
- Woodbridge (4-2, 9.20) is in seventh, two spots behind Rahway, but with a significant UPR gap of 5.20 UPR points. For a four-win team, as described earlier, that’s a lot to make up unless you go on one helluva tear, and someone above you collapses down the stretch. That makes us theink they probably have a ceiling of six, but the Barrons may need to win out to fend off a tight pack behind them battling to finish in the top eight so they can get at least a first-round home playoff game. There are three teams behind them within less than half a point, including Mount Olive (3-2, 9.40) and Summit (4-2, 9.40) tied four eighth, and Montgomery (3-3, 9.60) in tenth. So, yes, the Hilltoppers and Cougars also have a shot at a top eight seed, but right now we see at least those four teams battling for the last two places in the top eight. Maybe Garfield (5-1, 10.60, 11th) and Middletown South (3-3, 11.00, 12th) have a longshot chance, too. But ultimately, this is too jumbled up to predict now and should come down to the final weekend.
- Carteret (3-3, 14.40) and Watchung Hills (2-4, 15.80) take the last two spots for now, 15th and 16th, and are very much bubble teams at this point. This is also going to be too close to call, with no guarantee even if they win out they’ll get in. At least not now; depending what other teams around them do, we could have a much clearer picture after this weekend. The Ramblers have JFK on the road this week, but close with home games against Cranford and Monroe; at the very least, those last two, if they can get a win, will help them – especially with Monroe’s turnaround. The Warriors have North Hunterdon home this week, then are at Plainfield and Bridgewater-Raritan, a steady increase in quality of teams. The teams to watch around them include two above that they both could jump – Teaneck (3-2, 12.40, 13th) and Chatham (3-3, 13.60, 14th) – as well as those making a push from behind; their biggest dangers as of now appear to be Hackensack (3-2, 16.20, 17th), Newark Central (3-3, 18.20, 18th) and Colonia (2-4, 18.80, 19th). So, can the Patriots make it? Again, at 2-4, if they can finish strong (win out?) they have a shot, though it may be no guarantee. After a home game with Linden this Friday, they get back to back Friday night home games against Rahway and South Brunswick. Win two of three and we think they have a good chance to get in, but it’s definitely going to take some work.
NORTH GROUP 3:
- Two of the top three teams in this section are undefeated, and Cranford (5-0, 3.20 UPR) is one of them. Yes, we think the Cougars are in striking distance of the top two, but that may depend more on strength of schedule, as all these teams – including first-place Old Tappan (5-0, 1.60) and second-place Shabazz (4-1, 1.80) are very good. Let’s see how things shake out this weekend before we take a more detailed look, as there’s a lot more football to go for this trio. Cranford visits South Plainfield (4-2) this Friday, while Shabazz travels to Hudson Catholic (3-3) and Old Tappan hosts Hackensack (3-2). But while the Cougars, we believe, have a shot at finishing in the top two and getting a top seed, they will also have to look out for teams behind them, like Wayne Hills (5-1, 3.80) in fourth and West Essex (5-1, 4.60), although we think that’s all for now.
- Somerville (4-2, 10.20) currently sits in ninth, and they’re 1.60 UPR points out of the top eight, which would give them at least a first round home game. The two most within-reach teams ahead of them are eighth-place River Dell (4-2, 8.60) and West Morris (5-1, 7.00) in seventh. That might be the Pioneers’ ceiling, but they also have Holmdel (4-2, 10.40) breathing right down their neck, and Weequahic (4-1, 11.80) close behind as well. Top eight finish? Right now? We say: toss-up. The good news is, their schedule is strong: Sayreville at Brooks Field this Friday, at Hunterdon Central next week, then a Friday Cutoff Weekend game at the No. 1 team in the Bellamy & Son Paving Top Ten in Elizabeth.
- South Plainfield (4-2, 15.20) sits in 15th place, and for now, we think they are battling it out for the last two playoff spots with two other teams, both behind them, since Parsippany Hills (4-2, 12.80, 14th) is still more than two UPR points ahead. The teams the Tigers should worry about here are Mendham (3-3, 15.40, 16th) and Matawan (2-4, 15.6, 17th). For now, Paramus (3-3, 18.60, 18th) is still well enough behind South Plainfield. While this could very well come down to the final weekend, we like the Tigers’ chances; they’re a solid team. Let’s see if this week’s action brings that race into sharper focus.
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