Week 6 Playoff Analysis: Bernards and New Providence fight for home games in North 2, while Hillside fights to get in, but Big Central may get shut out in the South

As we get closer to Cutoff Weekend in New Jersey High School football, we’ll be taking a more detailed look each week at the standings, and the scenarios involving every public school in the Big Central Conference in contention for a playoff spot.

This season’s playoff coverage – both leading up to and in the postseason – is proudly presented by Dayton Collision on Route 130 in South Brunswick! That includes all our analysis over the next few weeks, as well as our LIVE Playoff Projection Show, scheduled for Saturday evening, October 23rd, and tentatively set for 6 pm.

Here’s a detailed team-by-team look at the North and South Group 2 Supersections as we head into Week 6 play this Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

NORTH GROUP 2:

• Bernards (4-2, 3.80 UPR) is tied for fourth in a very tight four-team group behind first-place Caldwell (5-0, 1.00 UPR). The Chiefs are what we call a “pure” top-seed, No. 1 in both power point ranking and OSI ranking. We don’t see them slipping from that spot, but the next four teams include Rutherford (6-0) and Westwood (4-1) tied with 3.60 UPRs, and the Mountaineers and Hoboken (5-1) tied for fourth with 3.80 UPRs. Any of these teams have a shot at a top two finish, and a top seed in whatever section they’re assigned. And all obviously are in a good place for securing a top four seed – guaranteeing home field through the first two rounds of the playoffs.
• Then there’s New Providence (5-0, 7.00 UPR). We don’t think the Pioneers – even though they’re only in sixth place, not that far away – are in a position where they might be able to get into that top four. Luckily for them, Perth Amboy is having a season for the ages, and their UPR is up into the mid-60s, so even a win over them will help, whereas last year, beating the Panthers might actually have hurt them. But it still might be a lot of ground to make up.
• The next – and last – Big Central team in contention here is Hillside. And despite the Comets’ 5-1 record, a weak schedule has them in the same kind of boat as Spotswood was last year, when they were 8-1 after Cutoff Weekend but missed the playoffs. They are in 19th place with a 19.20 UPR, but are just 1.4 UPR points out of the top 16. Only one of their five wins has come against a team over .500 – against Delaware Valley, which is 4-2. Their remaining schedule is their toughest stretch of the season: North Plainfield (4-2) at home Saturday, then at Manville (4-2) and Cranford (5-0) on Cutoff Weekend, both at home. It might take wins in two of those three games to get in.

SOUTH GROUP 2:

• Believe it or not, not a single Big Central team is in the top 16 in the South 2 supersection. The highest-standing team is Governor Livingston, a highly respectable 3-3 on the season, but they are in 19th with an 18.40 UPR, 2.6 UPR points behind the two teams tied for 15th: Overbrook (2-4) and Sterling (2-4), both with 14.80 UPRs. Everyone else is 22 or lower, including Spotswood (2-4, 21.60) at 22 and Roselle (0-5, 23.40) at 23.