Week 6 Playoff Analysis: Elizabeth, Old Bridge – and maybe Piscataway – in the hunt for top seeds in Group 5 sections; Perth Amboy looking to squeeze in for first berth in nearly a decade

As we get closer to Cutoff Weekend in New Jersey High School football, we’ll be taking a more detailed look each week at the standings, and the scenarios involving every public school in the Big Central Conference in contention for a playoff spot.

This season’s playoff coverage – both leading up to and in the postseason – is proudly presented by Dayton Collision on Route 130 in South Brunswick! That includes all our analysis over the next few weeks, as well as our LIVE Playoff Projection Show, scheduled for Saturday evening, October 23rd, and tentatively set for 6 pm.

Here’s a detailed team-by-team look at the Group 5 supersections, North and South as we head into Week 6 play this Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

NORTH GROUP 5:

• Having a fantastic season – its best start since going undefeated in 2012, when they won the first-ever North 2, Group 5 championship – Elizabeth (6-0) is very much in the running for the No. 1 seed in that section. Currently, Ramapo (4-2, 1.80 UPR) is first, followed by West Orange (5-1, 2.00), with the Minutemen right behind them (2.20 UPR). That’s not a lot of ground to make up, and Elizabeth would likely be the North 2, Group 5 top seed if they get one and finish in the top two, as the top overall seed gets to be in its natural section. West Orange has a bye this week, meaning they have two games left, against Barringer (1-4) and Montclair (2-4). But Elizabeth has three left. While a win over struggling Hillsborough (1-5) may drop them a bit in OSI, Westfield shouldn’t, and Somerville is even more formidable an opponent. If they win out, we think they have a better than 50-50 shot at a top seed.
• Piscataway (5-1, 4.00) sits in third, and the Chiefs have a solid schedule the rest of the way, too. They may not be able to make the top two on their own to earn a top seed, but they could challenge Elizabeth, especially if Piscataway wins out and the Minutemen stumble.
• Bridgewater-Raritan (5-1, 5.80) sits in eighth, and a top-seed is most likely a stretch. But they’re withing striking distance of finishing in the top four among the 16-team North 5 field, which would at least guarantee them home field through the first two rounds of the playoffs. But there’s still a lot of football to be played.
• Phillipsburg (4-2, 7.40) is tied for seventh with East Orange (3-2, 7.4). The Stateliners are idle this week, and close with Bridgewater next week (LIVE on CJSR) and Hunterdon Central on Cutoff Weekend, both at home. While the Red Devils are just 1-5, their SI is still a decent 60.93. But East Orange may have a better schedule SI-wise, so if both win out, P’burg could drop to eight, but even that is too close to call. Irvington (4-2, 8.40) is close behind, too. Then again, if someone else falters, the Stateliners, we think, could end up as high as six.
• Plainfield (2-4, 14.20) is in 14th place, but if they can finish strong, we think are likely to land a playoff berth, with the 17th place team, Livingston (3-3, 17.20) three full points behind, not an easy gap to make up. The Cards have a decent schedule that can help them, if they win: Rahway this week, Watchung Hills next and at Westfield Saturday of Cutoff Weekend.
• Perth Amboy (5-1, 14.60) is the interesting team to watch here, currently tied for 15th with Bloomfield (3-3). They have a 2.60 UPR lead over Livingston, also 3-3. We could get into a lot of scenarios here, but the OSI is the thing to watch. Currently, Amboy is at 40.54. They have generally played a weak schedule for a Group 5 school size-wise; other than Group 5 Monroe and New Brunswick and Group 4 Carteret, they have also played Group 2s Roselle, Spotswood and Metuchen. This week they are at New Providence (5-0, 77.24 SI), next week home against Johnson (3-2, 71.68) and at South Plainfield (4-2, 60.26). That may be the strongest stretch of their schedule. Our take? Win at least two of three and they’re in. Win one and they may be sweating and scoreboard watching. Drop all three, and they will extend their playoff drought to a tenth season.

SOUTH GROUP 5:

• The top two teams are defending state Group 5 champion Washington Twp. (6-0, 1.80 UPR) and Rancocas Valley (6-0, 2.00), but Old Bridge (5-1, 2.20) is very much in the thick of this race, within striking distance of both. The Knights will benefit from Monroe’s resurgence this year (the Falcons are 4-2) which has raised their SI value by nearly eight points from the preseason. There’s a lot of football left for these three, and also don’t count out Southern (5-1, 3.60) for a shot at a top seed.
• Sayreville (4-2, 8.00) is currently tied for seventh with Williamstown (4-2, 8.00), the team they beat in the 2018 South Group 5 Regional Championship at MetLife Stadium on a fumble recovery in the end zone. And there are two teams behind them within a single UPR point, so there’s no guarantee the Bombers will finish in the top eight unless they at least win out. The biggest tests will be at Somerville this weekend and home against Piscataway on Cutoff Weekend, while they have North Brunswick (1-5) on the road next week. Still too close to call here.
• Monroe (4-2, 14.60) sits in 14th, unlikely to move up far enough for a first round home game, but we think they’re a good bet to make the playoffs for the first time since 2014. First of all, there’s a tie at 16 between South Brunswick (2-4, 17.00) and Kingsway (0-6, 17.00). Problem is, there’s a two-win minimum to get into the playoffs, meaning the Dragons would need to beat two out of three; Camden (3-2) on the road this week, St. Augustine (5-1) at home next week, Atlantic City (3-3) on the road Cutoff Weekend. Frankly, we don’t see that happening. That helps both the Falcons and Vikings, because even Cherokee in 18th (1-5, 18.00) still needs another win just to be eligible. But they host Washington Twp. (6-0) this week and finish with road games at Delsea (2-4) and Shawnee (5-1). Maybe they beat Delsea, but it may not be enough.
• Edison (2-4, 19.00) is likely a long shot, but if they can beat Franklin on the road this weekend and take one of the last two against St. Thomas Aquinas (3-3) at home or Rahway (5-1) on the road Cutoff Weekend, they may be close enough to have a shot, even though they may need some help from the Vikings.