Group 5 playoff analysis: Have Phillipsburg and North Brunswick weathered the storm?

There are only three Group 5 football teams in the entire state of New Jersey with unblemished records, and two of them are in the Big Central. Phillipsburg and North Brunswick both are 5-0, as is Toms River North.

On paper, both have made it through the toughest stretches of their schedules. But will they be able to hold off the teams behind them?

With just three weeks of play until the state playoffs are seeded, let’s take a closer look.

NORTH 5 (Click here for official standings)

We start with Phillipsburg, which is 5-0 with three games remaining. They have a UPR of 1, ahead of Ridgewood (2 UPR), and the goal is to get either one of these. There’s not much real difference being the one or two overall seed since each gets a top seed in their section. With the brackets snaked, the seeding is even. But it looks like the Stateliners have a good shot at No. 1 overall.

A closer look shows they’re significantly ahead in the power point category, with a 20.6 average, almost four points ahead of Ridgewood (17), followed by Clifton (16.6) and Passaic Tech (15.33). It’s tough to take a huge jump this late in the season.

Sure, P’burg could take a significant dip with winless East Brunswick on their schedule cutoff weekend, so if you’re a Liners’ fan, you want to root hard for their upcoming opponents – heck all of them throughout the season – these last three weeks. Beating good teams helps, because you know Hillsborough, North Hunterdon, Ridge and Sayreville will pick up some more wins along the way as well.

On the OSI side, they look pretty safe, too. They’re at 72.95, a nearly eight point advantage over Ridgewood, and more than 15 points higher than third-place Passaic Tech. This will be an even tougher hill to climb for anyone behind them. Not only is it the highest OSI in the state among public schools, but it’s easily the biggest gap from No. 1 to No. 3 in the any supersection in the state. Even with East Brunswick (53.75) on cutoff weekend, P’burg should be able to hold court. As long as they continue to win, we think the Liners will be the overall top-seed in this section.

Westfield (4-1) remains in fifth, but has improved its UPR from 5.8 to 5.2, climbing one more spot in the OSI category (each rank position is worth 0.6 UPR points as 60% of the formula). All three opponents coming up have a higher SI than their OSI average, which means winning them all would boost them even further. A sweep could put them in play for a top-four seed. Ridge would be the biggest win, but it could come down to Hillsborough, a 2:00 kick at home on Saturday afternoon of Cutoff Weekend.

Watchung Hills (4-2) sits in 7th, dropping slightly this week even after handing then 5-0 Montgomery its first loss of the season. But it has nothing to do with that. Union City had a bigger gain with a win over Irvington, which has a stronger SI that Montgomery coming into the weekend; the Blue Knights are still over 80 in that department – they’re worth a lot. It happens. But if the Warriors keep winning – Plainfield, at St. Joe’s, Elizabeth – they should at least keep one of the top eight seeds, and at least earn a first-round home game.

Piscataway (3-2) continues its climb up the standings: 16th last week, 11 this week. When you have a couple of losses, as they do, every win gets magnified, and that’s what’s happening with the Chiefs. Road games at East Brunswick and Sayreville, then home to New Brunswick is how they close the regular season. A clean sweep could even put them in the top eight. Take two of the three – even if they come against the Bears and Zebras – and they should have a playoff spot locked up, their first since 2019.

Right behind the Chiefs is Bridgewater-Raritan. The Panthers are 2-4, one of six sub-.500 teams currently in the top 16 (two are tied for 16th). They play a mighty strong schedule, with – guess who? – Phillipsburg up next at Maloney Stadium Friday night. A loss, though wouldn’t hurt them that much, dropping their OSI and power point averages a bit.

Of course, the Panthers won there last year, 17-7, but this is a different Liners’ team, so it’s a tall task. To stay firmly in the playoff chance, Bridgewater would at least have to win at Elizabeth next week, and at home against Old Bridge on cutoff weekend.

Elizbaeth (2-3) is right behind Bridgewater, with an increasingly challenging stretch ahead: at Union Friday, home to the Panthers next Saturday, and at Watchung Hills Friday night of Cutoff Weekend. Two of three for the Minutemen also should do them well, but one loss would hurt them a bit more than Bridgewater, since there’s no one as strong as Phillipsburg on the schedule.

On the bubble, we’ve got Union at 1-4. The Farmers have a 16.4 UPR, tied with 2-3 Bloomfield, and 3-2 Dickinson is on their tail with a 17 UPR. The NJSIAA has a new rule this year that teams have to have a minimum two wins to qualify for the playoffs, so Union has to at least win one more, and can’t skate in on the weakness of other teams, so that’s the first step. The schedule isn’t easy. After Elizabeth this Friday night at home, the Famrers visit Phillipsburg then host Ridge on cutoff weekend. This Friday night may be their best chance for a win, so let’s call this a must-win, a play-in game – even though more may be needed – for Union.

SOUTH 5 (Click here for official standings)

As mentioned above, North Brunswick (5-0) sits atop the standings, but the Raiders’ lead is a bit more precarious than Phillipsburg’s. They actually have a greater lead, though, in the UPR over Cherokee, the next team back, at 2.8 compared to North Brunswick’s 1.4 UPR. But their lead over third-place Hillsborough (4-1) is a bit slimmer: a 2.4 advantage compared to a 1.8 edge.

This is a wonky section because of the double-multiplier, which has already been completed by Cherokee; that’s the good news. Toms River North (6-0) in fourth doesn’t have any, nor Hillsborough.

In power points, Cherokee is already ahead of North Brunswick, with a 20.8 average, while North Brunswick is at 18.6, and Marlboro is next with a 15.2, then Toms River North at 15 and Hillsborough at 13.2. The point is, even though Cherokee is behind North Brunswick, there’s nowhere to go with power points. They certainly could climb in OSI, which currently at 57.65 has them fourth. That’s if they sweep their next three opponents, all of whom are very good. They have Lenape (75.58), Kingsway (77.78) and Millville (82.42). That would do some damage. But with a loss, factor a 37-41 SI in there somewhere and they will drop, or at least negate any gains made by the other two wins.

In short, North Brunswick may not have the top-seed locked up even if they win-out, considering their schedule of a road game at New Brunswick this week and a home game against East Brunswick next week (they’re a combined 1-10), though 3-2 Cranford on cutoff weekend up in Union County could be a big win. But they should be good for a top-two seed, thus guaranteeing one of the top seeds in either section, and home field through the sectional finals.

Does Hillsborough have a shot at one of the two No. 1 seeds? We like their schedule, with Hunterdon Central this week, at Somerville next week, and the aforementioned Saturday Cutoff Weekend late kickoff at Westfield. But they still may need some help from the teams above.

The next team down the standings is South Brunswick (3-2) in tenth place. The Vikings have a tough final three games, but that’s the good news. Sweeping those would give them a big boost; inotherwords, a top eight seed and a first-round home game is certainly within their reach, and South controls its own destiny. They have Ridge this Friday night, visit Edison next Friday, and close with Somerville at home on the Friday night of Cutoff Weekend.

Edison (4-2) is in 13th, and save for a two-game hiccup have been very good. QB Matt Yasco and receiver Malcolm Stansbury are back in the lineup, so the Eagles just need to do what they do.

A top-eight seed may be out of reach, but remember: last year’s Edison squad was a 7-seed in South 5 and went on the road in the opening round, coming back across the Driscoll Bridge with a 23-20 upset win over 2-seed Manalapan. They won a huge game against Cedar Creek in the Battle at the Beach in Ocean CIty this year in front of a hostile crowd. Point is, just point them in the right direction, this team can go win a ballgame, if healthy, with so many three-year starters (and a fourth-year at QB).

Edison has a good schedule to get it done: this Friday at St. Joseph-Metuchen (7 pm on CJSR), then next Friday home to South Brunswick, and – perhaps the biggest challenge of all – Friday of Cutoff Weekend at St. Thomas Aquinas, which on the strength of two solid campaigns back-to-back has an 80.97 Strength Index value. (For what it’s worth, Aquinas has won 14 of its last 16 games going back to the start of last season.)

A promising season for Hunterdon Central (2-4) has slowed, with the Red Devils on a three-game skid since a 2-1 start that included a season-opening loss to North Hunterdon. They’ve lost to Bridgewater-Raritan, at Ridge, and home to Phillipsburg. Those are no cupcakes, but they need wins. At Hillsborough this weekend will be a tough one, so to prove they’re a playoff-worthy team, they’ll probably at least need to beat Franklin next Friday and win at Perth Amboy on Friday night of Cutoff Weekend.

They may also have to worry about the teams behind them. With a 16.4 UPR, Cherry Hill East (3-2) is right behind them at 16.6 (any move up in either power points or OSI by one position would jump Central) and Old Bridge (3-3). The Knights have a 17.6 UPR and are in 18th, but have a chance. It’s been win, loss, win, loss, win, loss for Old Bridge, but they close with home games against Monroe and New Brunswick – which have three wins combined – this week and next, then visit Bridgewater-Raritan Friday night of Cutoff Weekend. They will likely have to win all three. Time to put the brakes on the skid!