Group 4 playoff analysis: North Hunterdon continues to rise; is a top-seed in play?

With just three weeks before Cutoff Weekend, we take a deeper dive into the playoff standings, after Week 5 results are tabluated by Gridiron New Jersey.

NORTH 4 (Click here for official standings)

After a big win over Colonia last weekend, North Hunterdon (5-1) continues to make its push up the standings, climbing from fifth last week to third this week. They boosted their power point average from 13.4 to 17 with a 25-point win over then 5-0 Colonia last week. Their OSI went from 58.77 to 63.01.

Randolph (5-0, 1 UPR) sits at No. 1, followed by Morris Knolls (4-1, 2.4 UPR), while the Lions are a 2.6 UPR. That’s oh-so-close. But there are a few snags in the plan if North Hunterdon wants one of the two No. 1 seeds. They are already second in power point average, so there’s little room to climb. They’re also just 0.29 UPR points behind Morris Knolls, and 1.05 behind Randolph, which leads the group, so there’s little room to climb there as well.

But both teams are in the same boat as they try to gain – or not lose – based on their upcoming schedules. Other than Montgomery this Friday, home to Woodbridge and Voorhees the final two weeks isn’t all that great. But neither is Morris Knolls’ schedule, with 0-6 Morris Hills at home this week, at 0-6 Mount Olive next week, and home to 5-0 Randolph on Saturday of Cutoff Weekend.

Irvington (4th, 4-2, 4.8 UPR) has taken a major hit losing two straight after a 4-0 start, and they don’t exactly have a schedule to make much of a dent either.

Bottom line? If North Hunterdon can take care of business and run the table the next three weeks – not an impossible task, on paper – it could come down to some scoreboard watching on Cutoff Saturday.

Colonia, meanwhile, despite dropping to 5-1 with that loss in Annandale last Friday night, didn’t drop. The Patriots remain in seventh; it was a “good loss” at least OSI-wise. They have a 6.8 UPR, and a 1.8 UPR lead over ninth-place Chatham. If they can dust themselves off – and QB Jaeden Jones is healthy after suffering what appeared to be a lower leg injury in the third quarter against North Hunterdon – and win their last three regular season games against Perth Amboy, at Summit, and at Rahway – a distinct possibility – they should hold on to a top eight seed and get at least a first-round home game in the playoffs.

Montgomery (5-1, 9.6 UPR) took a hit with its first loss of the season last week, but could be in play for a top-8 seed if they get back on the saddle, though they may need some help. It’s a tight jumble in the middle of this section, with Ridge (3-2, 11.4 UPR) and Sayreville (3-2, 11.4 UPR) tied right behind them.

A win for Monty over North Hunterdon would pay huge dividends, but they would also have to win at Scotch Plains and back in Skillman against Linden the last two weeks to get that first-round home game gaurantee. Ridge is at South Brunswick, home to Westfield, and at Union. Sayreville hosts Franklin and Piscataway before closing at Woodbridge. It all looks pretty even to us, but Montgomery may have the upper hand among the three.

Rahway (3-2) is in 13th place after dropping two in a row, with a 12.4 UPR. They may need to win two of three to really solidify a playoff spot, but they have a challenging schedule. This Friday they visit St. Thomas Aquinas, which is red hot, and hasn’t lost a conference game this season. They they host Carteret and Colonia to close things out.

Linden (3-2, 15.6 UPR) is in 15th and Woodbridge (2-4, 17.4 UPR) are bubble teams at this point. The Tigers are at least on the right side of things, and close with Summit, then Cranford at home, followed by a road game at Montgomery, while the Barrons have JFK, visit North Hunterdon, then host Sayreville. They’re on the wrong side of the bubble and appear to have the tougher schedule.

Too close to call for those two at this point.

SOUTH 4 (Click here for official standings)

There are no Big Central teams in the South 4 supersection, but with Group Finals in the picture this year, take note that Middletown South and Hammonton are in the top two slots here, and South still has a second multiplier to play; they lost to Red Bank Catholic a couple of weeks ago, and visit Donovan Catholic the Friday of Cutoff Weekend.

They should be a lock for a top-seed because of that. Hammonton is also a good bet to hold on, as well, at 5-1 and with a mostly strong schedule the next two weeks against Timber Creek and Delsea, a combined 10-1.