Group 3 playoff analysis: Cranford takes a big jump with win over Barrons

There are just three weeks to go before the state playoff cutoff for public schools in New Jersey, so we at Central Jersey Sports Radio will continue to dig deeper into the numbers to look at each team’s prospects:

NORTH 3 (Click here for official standings)

West Morris (6-0) – the defending North 3 regional champ – and Old Tappan (5-0) are the top two teams in this supersection, with UPRs of 1 and 2 respectively. It’s a jumble behind them, with Cranford next up at 3-2, with a 4 UPR. Not far behind them is Hillside (4-1, 4.2 UPR) in fourth place and Sparta (3-2, 4.6 UPR) in fifth. The Comets are down a spot after suffering their first loss of the season, a defeat last Friday night at the hands of St. Thomas Aquinas, and the Cougars – defending North 2, Group 3 champs – improved to 3-2 with a 35-0 win over Rahway, leaping Hillside in the process, coming all the way up from 7th place into third.

It might be difficult for Cranford or Hillside to gain a top seed here, because the teams above them are so far ahead in both power point average and OSI. With UPRs of 1 and 2, that means West Morris is first in both categories, and Old Tappan in second. and it’s not that close. In power point average, it’s West Morris 17, Old Tappan 15.4, Hillside 14 and Cranford 12. In OSI, it’s West Morris 65.77, Old Tappan 63.02, Sparta at 56.28, Cranford at 54.2 and Hillside at 53.02. Two factors are in play here: First, there are not many places to climb in either ranking to make up the difference in UPR. Second, the gap to jump a space or two is fairly wide.

But a good consolation prize is to finish in the top four, at least earning a home field advantage guarantee through the sectional semifinals, wherever they land. Both have a good shot at that if they can keep Sparta at bay.

After that, scroll all the way down to 13th place to find Summit, which has now won two straight to get to 2-3 on the season, with a 12.6 UPR. They’re not solidly in yet, but if they can continue their resurgence, there’s a good shot they’re in the playoffs. The schedule is difficult, but it’s been that way all season. We’ve seen them in person, and the Hilltoppers are better after Week Five than the team that lost at Woodbridge by a touchdown on September 2.

We think they’ll make it; the schedule the rest of the way features a road game at Linden this Friday night, then home games against Colonia and St. Joseph-Metuchen.

SOUTH 3 (Click here for official standings)

Delsea is the top team here, with a 1 UPR, meaning they are tops in both power point average and OSI, and without the benefit of a multiplier – yet. They play St. Joe’s-Hammonton on Cutoff Weekend at Rowan. So, they’re a lock for No. 1. (Should it really be this way, thanks to multipliers? Ah, another argument for another time.) Camden is second, followed by Seneca and Hopewell Valley.

The first Big Central team here appears at No. 9, where South Plainfield (5-0) is at No. 9, with a UPR of 10. They are on the bubble for the top eight, which guarantees a first-round home playoff game. There are six undefeated teams in this section, in addition to the top four already mentioned and Ocean Township at No. 6. The Tigers have the weaker schedule, to be sure, and probably deserving of where they are.

It’s too close to call on where they end up considering the teams bunched around them. Just 0.2 points ahead of them in eighth is Highland regional, and Burlington Township is 1.2 UPR ahead in seventh. Nottingham is right behind at 10.2, and Matawan is 11.8. Bottom line is they should be a top eight team if they win out, with a road game at Voorhees this Friday, followed by Perth Amboy at home next Friday, and at Monroe on Friday night of Cutoff Wekeend.

Carteret (5-1, 15 UPR) is in 15th, with a similar schedule to the Tigers, but one loss – to South Plainfield. There are four teams behind them in striking distance: Allentown (15.6 UPR), Triton (16.6) and Camden Eastside (formerly Woodrow Wilson, 16.8). The Ramblers have a super tough schedule the final three weeks of the regular season: Governor Livingston this Friday night at The Pit, then at Rahway and at Hillside.

This might be tough.

Somerville (2-4) is another story. Note that Gridiron has them 3-3, but our numbers match up, after that season-opening forfeit against Mastery Charter for using an ineligible player. They are 3.4 UPR points out of the playoffs, which is a lot of ground to make up. And it’s a good news/bad news situation. They have Westfield and Hillsborough at Brooks Field this week and next week, then are at South Brunswick on the Friday night of Cutoff Weekend.

So, the schedule is conducive to picking up a lot of ground; the trick is they have to WIN those games. They’re 2-3 minus the forfeit, but those two wins are not nearly against the caliber of opponent they’ll face the next three weeks.