Now that the official Strength Index numbers for the upcoming 2026 football season have been released by the NJSIAA, we can start to piece together how the season might play out in a number of ways.
While power points start over each year from zero, the only real statistical metric that carries over from a previous year is the Strength Index, a value that is used to figure a team’s OSI – Opponent Strength Index – which is 60 percent of the NJ UPR playoff formula. The other 40 percent is power points.
The Strength Index is “simply” a measure of team strength. After each game, that number can go up or down based on results. We won’t get into the math here (that’s been done before) but essentially, a win by 20 points over a team rated only ten points lower means the team that won did better than expected, and their SI would increase, while the losing team would decrease.
Alternatively, if a team rated 20 points higher only won by ten, the winning team would see its SI go down, because they did not perform as well as expected, and the losing team would go up, since losing by ten to a team they should have lost to by 20 means they outperformed expectations.
But these numbers can also help us tell a story, as they are essentially a strength of schedule component, just like residuals in the power point formula. But power points only count wins, regardless of whether you beat Don Bosco Prep or the worst team in the state. All wins aren’t alike, right? SI is based more on the score, regardless of a win or loss.
So who plays the toughest schedule? The team with the highest-ranked opponents, right?
Not exactly.
We can look at it two ways.
Strength of Schedule vs. Challenging Schedule…
By pure schedule strength, using the Strength Index rating, one might say the team with the highest-ranked opponents has the toughest schedule, but that’s not always the case. A highly-ranked team playing other highly-ranked teams surely is a challenge, but those two teams are likely on a par with each other. Any teams within about 7-10 points of each other – a touchdown or just a bit more – is pretty much an even game.
But what if we told you a small school that was winless last year has the most challenging schedule in the Big Central? You might chuckle, but think about it: every team is going to be ranked higher than them, whereas the highest-rated team in the Big Central can only play teams rated lower than them.
By that metric, we get a different result.
Big Central Strength of Schedule by SI value…
Based on pure SI value, St. Joseph-Metuchen ranks at the top for it’s schedule, followed by Hillsborough, Ridge, Hunterdon Central and Woodbridge. But do they have the most challenging schedule in the league? Maybe.
The Falcons, for example, have an OSI of 67.33 – that is to say, the average SI of their opponents is 67.33 for the 2026 season. No one else’s opponents average out to higher than that. JP Stevens has an average OSI of 43.11, but who has the harder schedule – relative to their own rating?
Look at the third column, called “Up/Down.” St. Joseph is a -4.21, meaning the average SI of their opponents is 4.21 points lower than their own rating, which is 71.54, while their OSI average of 67.33.
Now look at JP Stevens, a 7.86 in the Up/Down column. That means, on average, everyone they play will be rated 7.86 points – a little more than a touchdown – higher than them. Last year, that number was 10.40, meaning this year’s schedule is a little more favorable than last year.
One interesting note this year is that there are nine teams who will play “up” by more than ten points. That’s one fewer than last year, meaning – at least based on preseason numbers, but remember, that could change – more teams are playing closer to their own strength, a good sign of competitive balance from the Big Central’s schedulers.
Additionally, the average of teams playing up ten or more points is down this year. Last year, the ten teams played up an average of 13.82 points, while New Brunswick played up the most, but 21.98 points.
This year, the nine teams average playing up by 13.14 points, and the biggest jump is for Dunellen, playing up 19.99 points, almost two points fewer than New Brunswick did in 2025.
You can see that in the next chart.
Strength of Schedule by “Up or Down”…
Again, Dunellen plays the most challenging schedule by this metric, with everyone on their schedule an average of 19.99 points better than them. That’s not a scheduling flaw, that’s just math. When you have the lowest strength rating in league, naturally, everyone you play will be ranked higher than you.
So, in this metric, Dunellen, North Brunswick, Perth Amboy, New Brunswick and Watchung Hills – even if they don’t play the toughest schools in the Big Central – have the most “challenging” schedules; on average, their opponents are ranked anywhere from 11 to nearly 20 points higher than them.
On the other side of the coin, Manville has the “weakest” schedule in that regard, followed by New Providence, Spotswood, Phillipsburg and Metuchen. That likely won’t hurt Phillipsburg, but it could hinder the others in their playoff chase. The main issue for them is the Big Central – and most of the state, really – doesn’t have enough small schools with high ratings to play.
Finally, here’s a look at the Big Central divisions as a whole:
Based on this chart, the division with the most parity would seem to be the Freedom Gold – a six-team division featuring Brearley, Dayton, Highland Park, JP Stevens, Roselle Park and South River – with an average “Up or Down” of 0.12. Zero would be perfect parity, so that’s a very “balanced” division.
While there are fewer divisions within one point of each other, only one division this year has a plus or minus of more than 2.86, where last year there were three. The average +/- was -0.26 last season, but it’s 0.22 this season, not a big change, but overall, it appears this year’s divisional alignment and scheduling is more balanced than last year, which – in theory – should mean more competitive football.
One other factor proves this, the “Range” column, which – very simply – is the difference between the highest rated SI team in the division and the lowest. Last year, the average range was 21.6 points, with a high of 31.16 in the National Silver. The Freedom Silver has a 39.19 range this year, the biggest, but the average range is 18.78 points, again indicating more “balance” overall than last year.
Coming soon: playoff projections… but when?
Each year, we take a look at who has the easiest and toughest roads to the playoffs, based on their schedule and preseason SI values. We usually get about 95 percent right on. But we’re holding off on that for now until the NJSIAA releases its official classifications for 2026 and 2027.
While a draft copy has been circulating and was published by some media organizations, we don’t want to have potentially out-of-date information guiding our projections, so once the classifications are unveiled, we’ll publish them, and then make our projections.
The NJSIAA says they should be out in the coming days.
