Strength of Schedule – Central Jersey Sports Radio

The American Silver Division is the only division in the Big Central Conference where all five teams have made the playoffs each of the last three years. It’s a remarkable feat, but also a testament to how strong and balanced that division is.

Phillipsburg, Hillsborough, Bridgewater-Raritan, Ridge and Hunterdon Central are tough, no doubt.

But you could also say that New Brunswick, Perth Amboy, Dunellen, East Brunswick and Brearley have the top five most challenging schedules in the league, relative to themselves.

How? Take a look at the state’s Strength Index numbers.

They may not face heavyweights like the Stateliners, Raiders, or any of the other American Silver division teams we mentioned earlier, but the difference in SI values between New Brunswick, et al., and their opponents are the largest in the conference.

For example, the Zebras – who have gone winless in each of the last two seasons – begin the year with a 33.77 Strength Index value. But the average SI of their opponents is a 55.75, or 21.98 points higher. That difference means that their average opponent would be expected to be about three touchdowns better than then.

Think of it as a handicap in golf. A duffer who shoots a 70 to 75 on average is a one- to two-stroke handicap, while one who shoots 98-101 (like I might, if I could play, though it would probably be on the front nine alone!) would be about a 20 to 24 handicap.

Perth Amboy checks in at 18.78, Dunellen at 15.03, and East Brunswick at 13.66, while Brearley is a 12.39. And that’s to be expected, as The Panthers and Bears were the only two teams among the five to win a game last year; Amboy won one, and EB won two.

The good news is, there are only ten Big Central teams who play up ten or more points, and only 14 of the 59 overall who play up more than a touchdown. That’s a sign of good parity.

On the other end of the spectrum, the top five teams that play down the most are St. Thomas Aquinas (-19.83), Somerville (-18.92), Phillipsburg (-14.38), Bernards (-14.11) and Manville (-13.03).

And that is simply a mathematical concept, for the most part. Somerville (83.85), St. Thomas Aquinas (83.01) and Phillipsburg (81.31) are the top three Big Central teams in Strength Index going into the year. That means they have no choice but to “play down,” because they’re simply rated higher than everyone else in the league.

So, let’s look at both metrics.

First, here’s a look at Strength of Schedule purely in terms of the average Strength Index value of their opponents. Teams of the same color text are in the same division.

As the chart shows, Bridgewater-Raritan plays the toughest opponents of any Big central team, with the average SI of their opposition being a 70.29. Note Westfield at No. 3, which has an average opponent SI value of 67.98, and they play 0.36 points up. That means that, on average, their opponents are right around the same SI value as the Blue Devils.

Next, we look at who has the most challenging Strength of Schedule relative to their own SI value:

Finally, here’s a look at the Big Central divisions as a whole:

Based on this chart, the division with the most parity would seem to be the Patriot Gold – featuring Bernards, Delaware Valley, JP Stevens and Voorhees – with an average “Up or Down” of 0.08, about as close to zero as you could get.

The chart also shows that the American Silver – with Bridgewater-Raritan, Phillipsburg, Hillsborough, Ridge and Hunterdon Central – has the highest average SI, with those teams averaging a 69.30 Strength Index Value, just like we talked about in the beginning.

The “Range” column shows the difference between the highest and lowest SI teams in the division, with the American Gold (Elizabeth, Union, Westfield and St. Joseph-Metuchen) and Liberty Silver (Montgomery, North Hunterdon, Rahway, Somerville and Watchung Hills) having the least difference in strength between the top and bottom teams.

Every couple of years, sometimes every year, leagues and conferences around New Jersey do The Shuffle.

It’s less a dance than a Rubik’s Cube, but the goal is to get all their teams in competitive divisions. Ultimately, someone will say they’re playing too many big schools, or will wind up slaying a bunch of smaller schools, but the decision-makers have nothing to go on other than coach or athletic director recommendations, the eye test, and records.

The reformation of the state’s playoff formula four years ago may have made the system much more complicated – and now requires a slide rule for the average fan to understand – but it also leaves us with some numbers based on the on-field results that can help leagues when they make their divisions.

Since each team now has a strength rating not just based on wins and losses or group size, and that number is used in the Opponent Strength Index that’s 60% of the state’s UPR playoff formula, we can now figure out a team’s Strength of Schedule based on each opponent’s preseason rankings.

How do we figure Strength of Schedule. It’s pretty easy.

We simply take the Strength Index of every opponent and average them out. A team with four opponents ranked 80 and three opponents ranked 50 would average out to a 65.

We’ve already showed you the preseason Strength Index numbers for the Big Central Conference, per Gridiron New Jersey, the NJSIAA’s official calculator of the playoff formula – you can find the numbers here – and a full list can be found here in PDF format.

Knowing that, we can now find the Strength of Schedule for all the teams in the Big Central. Note that we left out any games against out-of-state opponents, since those will no longer be considered for playoff qualification, both in terms of Strength Index and power points.

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