Who’s got the toughest schedule in the Big Central? Here’s what the numbers say…

The American Silver Division is the only division in the Big Central Conference where all five teams have made the playoffs each of the last three years. It’s a remarkable feat, but also a testament to how strong and balanced that division is.

Phillipsburg, Hillsborough, Bridgewater-Raritan, Ridge and Hunterdon Central are tough, no doubt.

But you could also say that New Brunswick, Perth Amboy, Dunellen, East Brunswick and Brearley have the top five most challenging schedules in the league, relative to themselves.

How? Take a look at the state’s Strength Index numbers.

They may not face heavyweights like the Stateliners, Raiders, or any of the other American Silver division teams we mentioned earlier, but the difference in SI values between New Brunswick, et al., and their opponents are the largest in the conference.

For example, the Zebras – who have gone winless in each of the last two seasons – begin the year with a 33.77 Strength Index value. But the average SI of their opponents is a 55.75, or 21.98 points higher. That difference means that their average opponent would be expected to be about three touchdowns better than then.

Think of it as a handicap in golf. A duffer who shoots a 70 to 75 on average is a one- to two-stroke handicap, while one who shoots 98-101 (like I might, if I could play, though it would probably be on the front nine alone!) would be about a 20 to 24 handicap.

Perth Amboy checks in at 18.78, Dunellen at 15.03, and East Brunswick at 13.66, while Brearley is a 12.39. And that’s to be expected, as The Panthers and Bears were the only two teams among the five to win a game last year; Amboy won one, and EB won two.

The good news is, there are only ten Big Central teams who play up ten or more points, and only 14 of the 59 overall who play up more than a touchdown. That’s a sign of good parity.

On the other end of the spectrum, the top five teams that play down the most are St. Thomas Aquinas (-19.83), Somerville (-18.92), Phillipsburg (-14.38), Bernards (-14.11) and Manville (-13.03).

And that is simply a mathematical concept, for the most part. Somerville (83.85), St. Thomas Aquinas (83.01) and Phillipsburg (81.31) are the top three Big Central teams in Strength Index going into the year. That means they have no choice but to “play down,” because they’re simply rated higher than everyone else in the league.

So, let’s look at both metrics.

First, here’s a look at Strength of Schedule purely in terms of the average Strength Index value of their opponents. Teams of the same color text are in the same division.

As the chart shows, Bridgewater-Raritan plays the toughest opponents of any Big central team, with the average SI of their opposition being a 70.29. Note Westfield at No. 3, which has an average opponent SI value of 67.98, and they play 0.36 points up. That means that, on average, their opponents are right around the same SI value as the Blue Devils.

Next, we look at who has the most challenging Strength of Schedule relative to their own SI value:

Finally, here’s a look at the Big Central divisions as a whole:

Based on this chart, the division with the most parity would seem to be the Patriot Gold – featuring Bernards, Delaware Valley, JP Stevens and Voorhees – with an average “Up or Down” of 0.08, about as close to zero as you could get.

The chart also shows that the American Silver – with Bridgewater-Raritan, Phillipsburg, Hillsborough, Ridge and Hunterdon Central – has the highest average SI, with those teams averaging a 69.30 Strength Index Value, just like we talked about in the beginning.

The “Range” column shows the difference between the highest and lowest SI teams in the division, with the American Gold (Elizabeth, Union, Westfield and St. Joseph-Metuchen) and Liberty Silver (Montgomery, North Hunterdon, Rahway, Somerville and Watchung Hills) having the least difference in strength between the top and bottom teams.