Tag: Roselle

by Mike Pavlichko

Cutoff Weekend Playoff Analysis: Group 2

It’s down to the final weekend of the regular season in high school football, and Cutoff Weekend is just days away. This week, Central Jersey Sports Radio will bring you exclusive, team-by-team analysis of all the playoff scenarios for the 57 public schools in the Big Central Conference.

It’s all brought to you by My Family Appliances on Route 1 South in the Wick Plaza, Edison.

And don’t forget to join us for our “Playoff Projection Show” on Saturday at 6 pm (moved to an hour later) as Mike Pavlichko brings you all the playoff projections, with analysis and commentary by Marcus Borden, live in studio!

With that, here’s a look at the Group 2 supersections, with all scores and playoff standings based on Gridiron New Jersey’s official calculations as of Sunday, October 15, 2023. Click on the heading to see the standings at Gridiron New Jersey:

NORTH GROUP 2

4. Bernards (8-0, 4.2 UPR): The Mountaineers are the only Big Central Conference team in this supersection. Even with a win over Governor Livingston (6-2) Saturday afternoon, and losses by the three teams above them (Westwood, Caldwell, and Rutherford), and then the three directly behind them, we think they top out at three, but most likely end up a No. 4. Should they lose to the Highlanders, the lowest they could drop is six, and that’s probably the extreme. Our best guess is a fourth or fifth place overall finish, but that’s a big difference: between a semifinal home game or a road game.

SOUTH GROUP 2

5. New Providence (4-4, 5.2 UPR): The Pioneers can bump up as high as a four-seed overall, but they need to win first on Friday night at Middlesex (6-1). Then, they’ll need a little help from Haddonfield and Pleasantville in the way of losses. The other teams in the top nine won’t matter; we think those are the only ones that can potentially jump them into fourth if others lose. With a defeat, however, they could drop as low as ninth if everything foes the wrong way for them with other teams behind them winning. Watch the Pleasantville (6-1) game at Middle Township (7-1), because they play each other, and a Middle loss keeps New Providence from dropping to ninth – and losing a first round home game – in the Pioneers’ doomsday scenario; that would leave them no lower than eighth. A Greyhounds loss and New Prov drops back to ninth.

9. Johnson (5-2, 8.8 UPR): The Crusaders’ meteoric rise was well-documented by us last week, and surprised us. The gist: On Friday, without even playing, everyone around them lost but one (Lower Cape May, which beat winless Buena) and ALJ skyrocketed from 17th to ninth place. That’s how bunched up teams were. By the time they scored a 48-0 road win over previously-undefeated Spotswood, they had jumped all the way to eighth, only to settle in ninth after the other scores came in. They jumped a grand total of eight places in one weekend, and now are firmly in the playoff picture. The Crusaders will beat winless South River (0-7) this week, so assuming that, we don’t think Johnson can move up. In fact, the best they can probably do is finish tenth. A loss, and the worst they can do is probably 13th. Basically, they played themselves in – and got some help – last week. Count Johnson in.

12. Delaware Valley (4-3, 14 UPR): At North Plainfield on Friday night, the Terriers should win that one over the 1-7 Canucks, even on the road. Looking at teams ahead of them, Monmouth (5-3) at Pinelands (5-2) is a toss-up, but we’ll give a win to the Falcons, Haddon Heights should beat a bad West Deptford team, and Johnson will beat South River. We think Del Val is going to end up around the 15th seed.

13. Spotswood (7-1, 14.4 UPR): Spotswood also benefitted from all those teams losing last week. That’s always a worst- or best-case scenario, but it never (or rarely) actually happens. But this time it did. And losing by 48 when Spotswood had an SI three points higher than Johnson also helped. The Crusaders’ SI value rose more than 10 points, so Spotswood got about five more points for a loss than they would have if they’d lost a one-point game. We’re going to try and find the best case scenario for the Chargers, but who knows if it will be enough? Certainly a loss against winless JP Stevens leaves them out, so we’ll assume a win. Delaware Valley should win at North Plainfield. If other games break wrong, Spotswood could end up in the 17 slot, but they could make it, too, barring a wacky residual showing up somewhere. Bottom line, they’re going to need some help somewhere along the way. If their luck continues and they get a smidgen of the help they got last week, they just might make it.

OUT: Roselle (18th, 18.8 UPR) looks to be out. Looks like a case of too little, too late for the Rams, who started 0-4, but have won three straight since. The problem is this week’s opponent – Belvidere – isn’t enough to move the needle into the top 16.

by Mike Pavlichko

Who’s got the longest win streak in the Big Central? In New Jersey? A closer look

The longest active winning streak in the Big Central doesn’t belong to a traditional football power in Central Jersey like a Piscataway or a Phillipsburg.

It doesn’t belong to either of the teams who won sectional titles last year in Edison or North Hunterdon.

In fact, with the state playing to group champions for the first time last year, that’s five fewer teams that will end their season on a high note coming into the following year.

Yes, the Big Central team with the longest active winning streak at the moment – after nearly three dozen teams opened up in Week Zero – is Roselle.

The Rams got off to an inauspicious start last season, losing their first four games, but rattled off eight straight wins to finish the season and finish 8-4. That included two “consolation” wins at Bordentown and Haddon Heights, and then a victory in their annual Thankgiving rivalry game against Roselle Park.

The stars aligned, and Roselle finished red hot. Junior quarterback Nazir Baker returns, but head coach Ibrahim Halsey will be looking for someone else to make up for graduated runningback Emmanuel Lyles’ 1,272 yards rushing and 16 touchdowns.

Elsewhere in the league, no one else has a streak better than three games. Three teams have won three straight: Spotswood won its last two last season and is 0-1 this year. Same for Linden. Summit won its final three games last year, but hasn’t opened yet this season.

The Hilltoppers host Woodbridge Saturday, while Linden hosts Rahway Friday, and Spotswood is at Belvidere Friday.

The longest active winning streak in the state currently belongs to Caldwell, which has won 28 straight games.

The Chiefs haven’t opened this season yet, but after winning their final three games in 2020, went 12-0 in 2021 and won the North 2 Regional Championship. Then, last year, they went a step further, 13-0, winning the state Group 2 title. They open Friday night at home against Morris Catholic.

A good distance behind them is Toms River North, which won its opener last week 14-7 over Millville in the Battle at the Beach in Ocean City. Micah Ford and company have now won 15 in a row, including 14-0 last season with a state Group 5 championship. Their last loss was in the 2021 playoffs to Kingsway in the South 5 sectional semifinals. The Mariners are back in action Friday against Toms River East.

by Mike Pavlichko

2023 Big Central Preview: Patriot Silver

When you consider an eight-win team finished fourth in a five-team division last year, you might consider that parity.

That was Roselle, which went 8-3 in 2022, but with all three of those losses coming in the division, against only one win in the Patriot Silver.

There was clearly a defined best team – Hillside – and the one that needed work – Metuchen – but all in all, this year, with the Bulldogs now in Year 2 for alum Jordan Leitner, and the Comets losing D-1 talent nearly all over the field, the ends of that spectrum may be closer.

And that big question mark surrounding the Patriot Silver also includes all the teams in between. There’s the aforementioned Roselle, which should be right in the mix again. AL Johnson will be very experienced, and so will New Providence.

It could all just come down to who’s better any given Friday night with this bunch.

Click below to listen to Mike Pavlichko’s preview of the Patriot Silver Division from the Big Central Conference’s inaugural Media Days:

by Mike Pavlichko

UNOFFICIAL: Group 2 Playoff Standings Update

Bernards moves up, and Spotswood is eliminated in the playoff chase, according to Central Jersey Sports Radio’s unofficial calculations of playoff standings after Friday night’s Week 7 games. Here’s a closer look:

Bernards‘ win over New Providence Friday night helped the Mountaineers move up one spot in the standings into 8th place, the cutoff for getting a guaranteed first-round home playoff game, at least pending the rest of Saturday’s game action.

The main question is this: Will a win over 3-4 Governor Livingston be enough to keep them in the top eight?

The first and third teams had a little juggle at the top of the standings, even though all three teams won to improve to 7-0. It’s now Westwood, Rutherford and Caldwell, as Westwood and Caldwell flipped places from last week.

Spotswood would have needed to win its final two games of the season – over Johnson and JP Stevens – to make the playoffs, and even then might have needed some help. But a loss to the Crusaders cost them Friday night, so the Chargers are eliminated.

Elsewhere, going top down, Delaware Valley and New Providence hold in 8th and 9th, still in play for a home game in the first round, except that the Terriers are a bit more in play.

That’s because the Pioneers lost Friday night to Bernards, but that’s a “good” OSI loss that kept them steady. Del Val plays at Hillside Saturday. A win over a very highly-ranked Comets team could solidify a top-eight finish. We’ll have to see where everything shakes out this weekend with the other games yet to be played before we start running scenarios.

Johnson appears to be in, and a solid bottom eight team.

But can Roselle get in? They beat a “weak” Bound Brook team Friday night, and dropped from 16th to 17th – tied with Haddon Heights – as a result. Next week’s game at 0-7 Belvidere doesn’t do them any favors here, either.

Bottom Line: Del Val has a better shot at a top eight finish than New Providence, but it’s still in play for both. Johnson is in and should start on the road. Roselle is going to need some help and likely won’t control its own destiny next week.

by Mike Pavlichko

South Group 2 Week 9 Breakdown: Can Hillside, Bernards earn a top seed? Will Roselle make it?

There’s still a lot to be decided in the South Group 2 supersection heading into Week 9, leaving a lot of question marks. But all will be answered this weekend. Here’s a team-by-team unofficial look at all the Big Central teams in the grouping:

Hillside: Sitting in third, the sky’s the limit for the Comets (6-1), but it’s not entirely in their control. With a win over Rahway Saturday afternoon, they could vault all the way up to first with a little help. But there’s a caveat to all of the below. Let’s lay out the scenario first. If Willingboro wins at Haddon Heights and Point Pleasant Boro beats a very good Middletown North team, Hillside likely stays in third. Point has the stronger opponent, so if they win, they’ll get the top seed. If they win and Willingboro loses, Point can finish first and Hillside second, so the Comets get the second overall seed, and a top seed in the sectional. If Point loses and Willingboro wins, Hillside could end up the top overall seed, and Willingboro No. 2. There’s one potential fly in the ointment, though: if Delaware Valley beats undefeated St. Thomas Aquinas Friday night in North Edison. With the Trojans 7-0, that game is worth an enormous amount of power points, and Del Val could leap as high as second, pushing Hillside out of the top four. So the Del Val-Aquinas game looms large here.The dire scenario for Hillside is if they lose to the Indians, which on its own would drop the Comets to tenth. They would need both a New Providence loss at Spotswood (not likely) and a Raritan loss to Shore (likely) to climb back into the top eight and earn a first-round home game. That’s a big swing for Hillside. A lot is at stake.

MORE CUTOFF WEEKEND COVERAGE: A team-by-team breakdown of every Big Central team’s postseason standing and chances heading into Week 9

Bernards: Sitting in fourth at 6-2, the Mountaineers have Middlesex (3-4) this Friday night. And while the Blue Jays’ won’t hurt them – unless they lose of course – a win doesn’t really move the needle either. Power points would nudge up a bit, OSI down a wee bit, leaving their UPR still at 6. With a Hillside loss, they can get to third, but no further, even with losses by Willingboro and Point Pleasant Boro. Both are just that far ahead, with 4.2 and 3.2 UPRs, respectively. But again, watch out for Del Val, which could screw this all up for the Mountaineers. And should they lose to the Blue Jays, it’s a similar scenario to Hillside; they would drop out of the top eight and need help to climb back in. Hey, winning cures all.

Delaware Valley: While Hillside and Bernards have much more to lose than gain, the Terriers (7-1, 7th place) are quite the opposite. A loss on their own to Aquinas (7-0) Friday night in North Edison on its own leaves them in 8th, but really 7th, since Camden – ahead of them – is out of the playoffs after a recent altercation in a game with Pleasantville led to several disqualifications, and an NJSIAA automatic ban from this postseason. Even wins by teams behind them like New Providence, Overbrook and Raritan likely couldn’t bounce them from the top eight – although a Raritan (3-4) win over Shore (6-1) could vault them into the top four as well, though it’s not very likely. The Terriers would still be ninth, and get the eight spot with Camden being pulled. But should Del Val beat Aquinas, they vault into second all on their own. Coupled with a Point Pleasant Boro loss and a Willingboro win – remember, Point has the tougher opponent, so this could be the more likely scenario – it’s possible Del Val vaults all the way up to Number One. Overall. That’s a heckuva ride.

New Providence: A weak last game leaves not much room for the Pioneers (7-1) to improve. In fact, even a win drops their power point average and OSI marginally, and a win at Spotswood (1-6) Saturday – without any other factors considered – moves them from 10th to 11th place. If the Pioneers can get Raritan to fall to Shore – which seems like it would benefit a number of Big Central teams – that would get Charlie Barth and company up to 9th, and then into 8th when Camden is taken out of the equation. And if disaster strikes and New Providence lost to the Chargers? Well, we still don’t think the Pioneers drop into the bottom four of the section.

Roselle: Sitting in 17th, the Rams (4-3) play at Bound Brook (3-5) on Friday night at LaMonte Field. Should the Rams win, even if everyone behind them who plays this weekend wins, Roselle would likely end up in 15th – 16th overall, but up a spot with Camden pulled from the group. Lose, and they’re out. Likewise…

Bound Brook: The Crusaders are in 20th place, but yes, Virginia, they still have a shot. Beating Roselle also gets them to number 16 overall, bumping up to 15th, we believes, once Camden is yanked.

by Mike Pavlichko

Hillside holds in third, but drops in UPR in South 2; Roselle has big gain, and Bound Brook plummets after loss to rival Manville

Third place is where Hillside started Week 8 in the South 2 standings, and third place is where they look to finish after Friday night’s games, and an unofficial calculation of UPR by Central Jersey Sports Radio.

The Comets beat Carteret 41-13, but dropped in UPR from 3.8 to 5, while Willingboro – in second – went from a 3.4 to a 2.2 UPR. The gap has widened, and now it comes down to whether Hillside can recoup it on Cutoff Weekend as to whether they grab a top seed in the state tournament, which begins in two weeks.

Camden (4-3) is behind them, yet to play this weekend. They visit Cedar Creek (8-0) Saturday.

So for Hillside, they have Rahway (3-4) next week, while Willingboro has Haddon Heights (4-3). Even a Hillside win and Willingboro loss may not do it, so we’ll pencil in the Comets as No. 3. While they won’t get a top seed, the third spot will prevent them from having to face the overall top seed until the regional championships.

Elsewhere, Bernards and Delaware Valley flipped so that the Mountaineers are in 6th by 0.2 UPR over the Terriers. Both won Friday night, and both are a good bet for a top eight finish. Only tenth-place Raritan could challenge them, but only one and not the other.

Bernards is at Middlesex (2-4) next week, while Del Val visits undefeated St. Thomas Aquinas (7-0).

New Providence dropped one spot to 11th, which won’t make much difference in the long run.

Notable is Roselle’s big jump from 19th to 15th, despite a loss to Del Val, which is what we call a “good loss” – strong OSI value. That may be short-lived since Pleasantville (16th) hasn’t played yet this weekend – they have Woodrow Wilson today – but other teams they jumped like West Deptford did, and lost.

Bound Brook’s loss to rival Manville, 51-27, dropped the Crusaders seven places to 22nd., but still only 3 UPR out of the playoffs. The teams are tight there. After this weekend’s games, we’ll see where they stand, but it’s likely they’re out of contention unless something dramatic happens.

by Mike Pavlichko

Week 8 Analysis: Hillside still in play for a top seed in South 2, while Del Val, Bernards and New Providence look to be in

Hillside hasn’t lost a game since a tough defeat at the hands of Bernards back in September at the Rumble on the Raritan, and that has the Comets oh-so-close to a top two finish in the South 2 supersection, which would give them guaranteed home games throughout the sectional playoffs that begin the weekend of November 5th.

Hillside (5-1) is in third, with a 3.8 UPR, just 0.4 behind Willingboro (4-2). The issue is, there aren’t a lot of ways for the Comets to move up. They are in second in power point rank (15.5) but Pt. Pleasant Boro, which leads the section, is all the way up at an 18.5 power point average. With Carteret and Rahway next for the Comets, worth 15 apiece, that won’t cut it.

What about OSI? Hillside is in 5th at 50.61, but Carteret is only worth 48.91 OSI points. They’ll need to beat the Ramblers, and then beat Rahway, which has a higher 61.64 SI value, and hope for the best with Willingboro.

One thing that could help – and we just emailed the NJSIAA for a clarification late Thursday night – is the situation with Camden. After a fight in a game with Pleasantville, they collected enough ejections to make them ineligible for postseason play. The question is, does Camden – currently fourth in UPR – remain in the supersection and the teams below them all bump up one place? Or do they get yanked entirely from the supersection like the North Jersey teams in “relief” divisions who agreed to not be eligible for the playoffs in exchange for easier schedules. If that’s the case, consider that ahead of 5th place Hillside in OSI is Camden. If they’re entirely out of the supersection, guess who moves to fourth, picks up 0.6 UPR points and jumps Willingboro?

You guessed it: Hillside.

And believe it or not, the third place OSI team is overall first-place Point Pleasant Boro, so they could even catch them and move up. The point is, Hillside may be very much in play. We’ll keep you posted on what the NJSIAA tells us, as we await a response Friday morning. It’s probably more likely Camden stays in the standings, but either way, Hillside has a shot. It’s just better with Camden out.

At the back end of the top eight are Delaware Valley (6-1) and Bernards (5-2). The Terriers are 6th with a 6.2 UPR, while Bernards is at 6.8 in seventh place. Ahead of them is Haddonfield, with a 6.2 UPR, and then there’s the issue of No. 4 Camden. One way or another, they’re not in the postseason, so at worst that effectively moves Haddonfield to 4th, Del Val to 5th and Bernards to 6th, all separated by 0.6 UPR points. That means that the coveted fourth spot, which guarantees home field for the first round and semifinals in sectional play, is still very much up for grabs for any of those three teams, should they keep on winning, as one jump in either power points or OSI for anyone could shuffle all the teams around.

Haddonfield has Collingswood (1-7) and Haddon Heights (4-2) remaining. Bernards has a home game with South River (3-3) then a road game at Middlesex (2-4) left. And Del Val has Roselle (4-2) and St. Thomas Aquinas (6-0) to go. Del Val may have the tougher schedule, but the other side of the coin says they have the biggest upside.

New Providence has only lost one game – ironically, a last minute game with Willingboro, 26-7 on September 18th, when Belvidere cancelled on them – but sits in 10th. But they have a shot at a first round home game with a top eight finish since they have an 8.8 UPR, while the teams ahead of them are within 0.6 UPR points – just one place in OSI apart; Overbrook is at 8.4 and Nottingham has an 8.2 UPR.

At No. 15, we have Bound Brook, with the Crusaders nearly in a must-win situation with Bound Brook Friday night (7 pm, CJSR) in the Big Central Game of the Week driven by Autoland. Two teams would have to catch them to knock the Crusaders out of the playoffs. The next two out are West Deptford (2-5, 1.8 UPR behind) and Haddon Heights (4-2, 2.0 UPR points behind).

A split still could get them in – they have Roselle (4-2) next week – but why chance it? Besides, Roselle is the next team down from Haddon Heights, in 19th place. But if they were to get close enough to Bound Brook that the Rams were in 17th and Bound Brook in 16th, here comes the NJSIAA’s “head-to-head” rule into play. If Roselle beat the head-to-head, the Rams move in.

by Mike Pavlichko

COVID takes some lustre off Big Central’s inaugural season

by Mike Pavlichko

There were supposed to be some highly intriguing matchups in 2020.

That was the promise of the Big Central Football Conference, the long awaited merger that follows the trend around the rest of the Garden State: large superconferences swallowing up smaller ones and encompassing large swaths of New Jersey.

The Big Central gives us 60 teams that used to be in the Greater Middlesex and Mid State Conferences.

The names had a nice ring to them. The GMC will survive in all sports besides football. The Mid-State also was a football-only league, as Hunterdon, Warren and Union Counties make up the Skyland Conference in other sports.

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