Tag: Rahway

by Mike Pavlichko

Week 7 Playoff Analysis: Group 4

With just two weeks of play left before the state playoffs are seeded, things are heating up in the playoff chase. Here’s our look at the Big Central Conference teams in playoff contention in Group 4 as we head into Week 7 of high school football around the state.

And, of course, don’t miss our “Playoff Projection Show,” scheduled for 5 pm on Saturday, October 21st, when we’ll reveal our predicted matchups and seeds for the postseason. It’s all presented by My Family Appliances of Edison, which will be giving away three $100 gift cards during the show to lucky listeners!

All our analysis is based on Gridiron New Jersey’s official playoff calculations performed for the NJSIAA and listed on their website as of 8 pm on October 10. For full standings, click on each supersection’s header below:

NORTH GROUP 4:

4. Ridge (5-1, 4.2): The Red Devils are the highest-ranked Big Central team here. We think the Red Devils still have a shot at a top seed if they can win both their remaining games – at Westfield this Saturday and against Union Friday night next week. Those are both winnable, but they could also drop both, and finish outside the top four. It’s a tightly-packed bunch at the top, including Roxbury, Northern Highlands, and Mount Olive above them, as well as Montgomery and Ramapo behind them.

5. Montgomery (7-0, 4.4): The Cougars are just 0.2 UPR points behind Montgomery, and Ramapo is 0.4 points behind them. The Cougars should win Friday night against Scotch Plains-Fanwood, but have a tough finale next Friday night at Linden. A sweep could get them a top four seed – and a two-seed in the sectionals, meaning home games at least through the semis – if things break right. With two losses – highly unlikely – they should at the very least be in the top eight and get a first round home game out of the deal.

9. Linden (5-2, 10.6): The Tigers are one of three Big Central teams in the 9-12 spots in the supersection, and are just 0.2 UPR points ahead of Woodbridge, 0.4 ahead of Randolph, and 1.6 ahead of Sayreville. Linden has two very tough games to close out the season – at Cranford Friday and home to Montgomery next Friday. A sweep could clinch them a first round home game, but we’re not sure if one win would do it. Check back with us next week!

10. Woodbridge (5-2, 10.8): The Barrons – even with a sweep of their final two games – may not be able to reach the top eight, at least not without a little help. Having winless North Hunterdon at home this Friday doesn’t help, but a win next week at Sayreville would. The safe call here is that Woodbridge opens the playoffs on the road.

12. Sayreville (5-2, 12.4): Do the Bombers have a shot at a home game? They sure do, if they win out. First, it’s an old-fashioned GMC tussle in one of the area’s best rivalries when they visit Piscataway Friday night (6 pm on CJSR). Then, they get Woodbridge next week at home. Two big opportunities for the Bombers. A split, and they should be on a bus to their first round destination.

15. Rahway (3-4, 13.8): We think it’s pretty simple for the Indians. The 17th place team is pretty far behind; that’s Chatham at 18. And it’s doubtful Colonia behind them can catch them at 18.6. But nor do they have a chance at a top eight seed, where 8th place Irvington has a 7.6 UPR. The Indians will start on the road. The question is, can they move up at least one notch from 15 to 14, and avoid having to visit the top-seed? Not that facing Ridge in the opening round – one of the largest Group 4 teams – would be an easy task either.

18. Colonia (4-3, 18.6): The Patriots are in dire need of wins. They have their last two games at home, against Summit and Rahway. The Hilltoppers (5-1) are having a fantastic season, but even the Indians (3-4) are no pushover. Even a weep may not get them in; they may need some help, but we don’t think they’re in at all if they drop one of their final two.

SOUTH GROUP 4:

There are no teams from the Big Central in South Group 4, but since the state plays to overall group champions now, we’ll just mention that the top four right now include Millville (5-1), Mainland (7-0), Brick Memorial (7-0), and Winslow (5-2).

by Mike Pavlichko

Week 6 Playoff Analysis: Group 4

Cutoff Weekend is rapidly approaching – October 21st – and there’s still a lot of football to be played before the NJSIAA seeds the state playoff.

Here at Central Jersey Sports Radio, we’ll be breaking down playoff scenarios for every Big Central Conference team’s that’s in the running.

The NJSIAA’s uses its UPR system – which factors Opponent Strength Index as 60 percent of the formula and traditional power points for the other 40 percent – to determine playoff seeding, but things can change a lot from week to week, until Cutoff Weekend, when Strength Index numbers are locked in.

Here’s our team-by-team look at Group 4. Official standings on Gridiron New Jersey can be found by clicking the links below.

NORTH GROUP 4:

3. Montgomery (6-0): The Cougars just keep on winning, and we think have a legit at finishing in the top two and getting a No. 1 seed. That’s because they’re only 0.4 UPR points out of second behind Ramapo. That’s probably the best they can do, as Roxbury (6-0) is in first by 2.4 UPR points over Ramapo, and 2.8 over Monty. There are also three teams bunched very close behind them: Mount Olive and Northern Highlands with 4.4 UPRs, and Ridge in sixth at 4.8 UPR. Montgomery has passed, and should go into their Cutoff Weekend game at Linden 8-0 with games at North Hunterdon (0-6) and Scotch Plains-Fanwood (1-5) the next two weeks. They’ll need to win all three to have a shot at that second seed. For the record, Ramapo has River Dell (1-4), Old Tappan (5-0) and Ridgewood (2-3) the rest of the way. It’s a bit of a stronger schedule, but to compare the best teams on their slates, it could come down to Monty and Linden on that last weekend after Ramapo-Old Tappan next week; both of those games could very well be toss-ups and decide the race.

6. Ridge (4-1): As one of those three teams bunched behind Montgomery, can the Red Devils make a run? IF they can win all three, their challenging schedule just could do it, especially if they get some help from above (no, not that above). They get South Brunswick at home Friday night, then visit Westfield next Saturday before a Friday night Cutoff Weekend clash with Union in Basking Ridge. A challenge, yes. But if they can win ’em all, call it a blessing in disguise. They’ll have earned it.

8. Woodbridge (4-2): We’ll call the Barrons a “bubble top eight” team. With an 8.2 UPR, they’re a little far back from the rest of the teams above them; Morris Knolls in 7th has a 6.6 UPR, then Ridge at 4.8 is a long way away, for now. What may not help them maintain that position is the fact they have in-town rival JFK this week, and North Hunterdon next week. Both are winless, so even a win in the regular season finale at Sayreville might not get them there. But the Barrons should at least go 2-1 the rest of the way, and we consider them in the playoffs.

9. Linden (5-1): The Tigers have a 9.2 UPR, just one full point behind Woodbridge. They have a tougher schedule than the Barrons, and all things being equal, if both teams sweep the next three weeks, Linden should jump the Barrons, at the very least. It’s road games the next two weeks for the Tigers – at Summit and Cranford – before finishing out at Montgomery. Let’s say if they want a top eight finish and a first round playoff game, they control their own fate; they probably need to win out to do so.

12. Sayreville (4-2): We wouldn’t say the Bombers have clinched a playoff berth yet, but we do think they’re going to end up on the right side of things. They have a pure 12 UPR (i.e., they’re in 12th across the board in power points, OSI and UPR), and the 17th place team is at 17.6 UPR; 5.6 points is a lot of ground to make up. Assuming the Bombers win at least one of the next three, we think they should be in. After 2-4 Franklin this week, they have their rivalry game with Piscataway (currently 3-3) next week at Kenny Armwood Stadium, then host Woodbridge on Cutoff Weekend, Friday night. A second win should make it a lock.

13. Rahway (3-3): The Indians – right behind Sayreville – are a pure 13 UPR. Like Sayreville, we think they should be in, if they can continue at their current level of play. It’s a tough slate, though: St. Thomas Aquinas comes to Rahway River Park this weekend, then they close with two on the road: at Carteret and at Colonia. Won’t have a shot at a first round home game; should be in the top 16.

18. Scotch Plans-Fanwood (1-5): Despite their record, the Raiders are in 18th place, and at this point, any win should give them a boost. They have Cranford home Friday, then go to Montgomery, then close out back at home against JFK. But they’ll probably need a win over one of the first two to even have a shot.

19. Colonia (3-3): This one is the puzzler. Scotch Plains with one win is ahead of the Patriots, as are four other two-win teams. Their losses have been to some good teams: Sayreville, Linden and Woodbridge. The good news is, they can atone with wins over good teams coming up. After 2-4 Perth Amboy this Friday night at Waters Stadium, they will host Summit (5-1) then Rahway (3-3) to close it out. Colonia is 2.8 UPR points out of a playoff spot. If they can win all three, they might have a shot. They should beat Amboy, Rahway is a toss-up, Summit is a tough one. Stay tuned!

SOUTH GROUP 4:

There are no Big Central teams in South Group 4, but we’ll take a quick peek at the top of the standings, which have Millville (4-1) and Mainland (6-0) holding the top two spots, followed by Winslow (5-1) and Brick Memorial (6-0) with Jackson Memorial and Hammonton not far behind.

by Mike Pavlichko

Mid-Season Playoff Analysis: More than half-dozen BCC “big boys” have legitimate shot at top seeds

At the mid-way point of the high school season, with four more weeks of football until the playoffs are seeded, there are seven large – Group 5 or 4 schools – with a realistic shot at earning a top seed when the sectional playoffs begin the weekend of October 27th.

This is our first week of playoff projection analysis on cjsportsradio.com, presented by My Family Appliances in Edison, and we begin with a look at North and South Group 5 and 4 supersections..

With still a lot of football to be played, the analysis will be a bit more general in nature this week, but will get increasingly detailed with each passing week as the numbers come into better focus.

Playoff Qualification Primer

The NJSIAA uses the United Power Ranking (UPR) to determine where teams are seeded. Without getting into all the behind the scenes calculations and caveats, each team’s UPR is based on two factors: their rank in the supersection based on power points and on OSI.

Power points are an average and based on the traditional formula that’s been used – albeit altered from time-to-time – over the years. Teams get six points for every win, group points based on the group of the opponent, and residuals – 3 for every win by a team you beat, 1 for every win by a team you lost to.

OSI is the Opponent Strength Index, and average of all the opponents played. Teams get the full value of a team’s Strength Index for a win, half for a loss. A win over an opponent with an SI of 80 gets and 80, a loss gets you 40 points. SI varies based on results throughout the year.

Teams are ranked in each category. OSI values are worth 60 percent of the formula, power points 40 percent. That added number makes the UPR, with lower numbers better. The best UPR a team can have is a 1, which is first in both power points and OSI.

The UPR is calculated for the NJSIAA by the website Gridiron New Jersey. Central Jersey Sports Radio also does its own unofficial calculations throughout the season, and will unveil its playoff projections in our annual special broadcast, this year on Saturday, October 21 from 5-7 pm, presented by My Family Appliances in Edison.

North Group 5

There are three area teams in the top five at the moment. After Passaic Tech in first, there’s Watchung Hills second, Union third, then Union City, and Phillipsburg in fourth.

The Warriors (5-0) have a big clash at home Saturday night with Montgomery (5-0) so that could boost their power point average. Union also has a huge game at Cooke Field with Hillsborough, which just knocked off previously-undefeated P’burg Sunday in the Rumble on the Raritan at Rutgers. The Stateliners try to get back on the horse Friday against Hunterdon Central, which just took its first loss of the season Friday to Ridge.

After that, there’s a chance for a home game for Plainfield, which is 3-1 at the moment and sitting in seventh. They go out of conference Friday night with a trip to North Bergen (2-2), and have a big one with Watchung Hills next week at home before closing at Monroe and home to Franklin, two very winnable games. The Cards look like the have a shot here.

Next, you have to go down to 12th to find Westfield, whose victory over winless Scotch Plains-Fanwood Friday probably did them no favors. The good news is, they Blue Devils are 2-2 after an 0-2 start, so they’re trending in the right direction. Westfield is at St. Joseph-Metuchen Saturday afternoon.

Though they’re on the right side of it at this point, we’ll call Piscataway and Bridgewater-Raritan bubble teams for now. The Chiefs (2-3) are in 14th, while the Panthers (1-4) are in 15th. This is a danger zone, because any team with one or two wins will make big jumps if they win a third or fourth game. So, they’ll have to watch teams behind them.

Of course, winning themselves will help.

The last four games for the Chiefs are winnable, starting with Old Bridge on the road this week, then East Brunswick home on Friday, October 6th – a game you can hear on CJSR at 6 pm from Kenny Armwood Stadium. Sayreville and New Brunswick close out their schedule.

Bridgewater-Raritan has a much more difficult schedule. They’re at Ridge this week, and home to Phillipsburg the next, before Elizabeth and a road game at Old Bridge round out the slate.

South Group 5

Two area teams are in the top six here, and you need to finish in the top two to get a top seed in one of the sections, South or Central 5. North Brunswick (4-0) currently sits in fourth, with a 3.4 UPR, just one UPR point behind second-place Toms River North (4-1).

The problem for the Raiders is their schedule is not conducive to climbing up the rankings. Of the four teams remaining, two are winless (New Brunswick and East Brunswick) and Franklin (this week) and Cranford (Cutoff Weekend) each have just two wins at the moment. As far as a top-seed is concerned, there’s zero margin for error here.

Hillsborough sits in sixth at 4-1, and got a big boost with its upset win over previously-unbeaten Phillipsburg. That was 20 power points for the win, as opposed to four for a loss. They’ll have similar opportunities the next two weeks – both on the road – against Union and Hunterdon Central. And their last two home games against Somerville and Westfield won’t hurt them either. Running the table could give them a really good shot.

Hunterdon Central currently sits in eighth, and should be able to get a first round home game. Their remaining four games are a mixed bag. They should beat both Franklin and Perth Amboy to end the regular season, so a first-round playoff game (top 8 finish in the supersection) could ride on getting at least one win in the next two weeks, which includes a trip to Phillipsburg this Friday night, and a home game against Hillsborough next weekend.

South Brunswick sits in 11th, well enough inside the bubble, but also fairly likely a bottom eight finish.

On the bubble are Edison and Franklin. The Eagles are the defending Central Jersey Group 5 champs, and 2-3 at the moment. There are some winnable games on the schedule for the Eagles, including a home game with New Brunswick this Friday night.

The Warriors, however, are another story. While 2-3, their wins have come against East Brunswick and New Brunswick, opponents who are a combined 0-10. Their next three opponents – North Brunswick on the road this week and Sayreville and Hunterdon Central are a combined 11-3. So, we’ll not only see how much Franklin has improved this year, but whether a must-have win against at least one of those teams can get them in the playoffs.

North Group 4

In the top four are two Big Central teams from very competitive divisions, which explains why they’re there. Montgomery sits in third at 5-0, with a 4 UPR, two points behind second place Mount Olive. Then Ridge is right behind them – literally – with a 4.2 UPR. Northern Highlands is right behind the Red Devils with a 4.4 UPR.

This is very bunched up right now, and with a lot of football to be played, too close to call. Bottom line: Montgomery and Ridge will need to keep on winning. A loss by either team might make too high a mountain to climb to get into the top two.

Linden (4-1) has looked very good this year, and the Tigers claim seventh place this week in the UPR standings. They’ve got a reasonable schedule the rest of the way with JFK at home this week, then at Summit and Cranford before finishing at Montgomery in what could be a critical game to clinch at least a first-round home game.

Woodbridge looks like a pretty good playoff bet. The Barrons are tenth and 3-2 on the season, and Rahway – also 3-2 on the year – is right behind them. Woodbridge could have a legit shot at a top eight finish and a first round home game, Rahway a little less so, but they still have a chance with four weeks left and a good enough schedule that could give them a boost. They may have to go 3-1 the rest of the way to do it, though.

Sayreville sits in 13th, and while I wouldn’t call them a bubble team yet, the 3-2 Bombers can’t get complacent. Granted, their losses have come to Phillipsburg and North Brunswick, the only two teams that have occupied the top spot in the CJSR rankings. If Sayreville is as good as their preseason hype, they should do no worse than 3-1 the rest of the way.

Outside the bubble and a longshot to make the field is Scotch Plains-Fanwood, which is 1-4 and in 19th place. But more interesting is Colonia. The Patriots are 2-3, but all the way down in 21st place. They have a 20.2 UPR, 4.8 points out of a playoff spot. The schedule is favorable with winless North Hunterdon coming to the blue turf this week, and then a visit to 2-3 Perth Amboy next week. It could come down to the last two weeks – with home games against Summit and Rahway, two teams in the playoff field – to decide Colonia’s playoff fate.

South Group 4

While there are no Big Central teams in this section, it’s worth mentioning briefly since New Jersey now plays all the way to group champs. For now, we’ll just point out that the top two teams are Mainland (5-0) and Millville (3-1), followed by WInslow (4-1) and Brick Memorial (5-0).

by Mike Pavlichko

Two long TD runs from Thomas help Linden to 28-20 win over Rahway

In Linden’s season opening win against Elizabeth at Kean University exactly one week ago, Te’quan Thomas sensed his team needed a big play, and he ran one in from more than 20 yards out to give his team the win.

This Friday night against Rahway after his team jumped out to a 14-0 lead and then gave it away in the second quarter, Thomas – the reigning Bellamy & Son Paving Big Central Player of the Week – scored a 50-yard touchdown to give his team a 21-14 lead at the break.

Then after a Rahway field goal to open the second half, Thomas responded with a 69-yard score to make it 28-17.

The Tigers (2-0) held Rahway (1-1) to a field goal the rest of the way for a 28-20 victory.

Click below to see postgame reaction from Linden senior Te’quan Thomas and head coach Al Chiola, presented by Sportsplex at Metuchen:

by Mike Pavlichko

2023 Big Central Preview: United Gold Division

Coming off a year in which Cranford won a state title, their move to a new division put them in with the behemoth that has become St. Thomas Aquinas, which won the United Gold Division in its inaugural season in 2022.

But both teams have lost significant talent, but should be right back in the mix, while their three other divisional foes will look to make a push.

That includes Rahway, which won four games last year, but had to deal with the death of a beloved teammate, Ali Muhammad.

MORE ’22 COVERAGE: Hall stands tall after teammate’s tragic passing to win Week 2 Bellamy & Son Player of the Week Honors

There’s also Summit, which finished 6-5 after starting the year 0-3, and has more experience back this season. And then Scotch Plains-Fanwood, nearly a playoff team two years ago, but coming off a two-win season that is likely more an exception to the rule for Austin Holman’s program.

Click below to listen to Mike Pavlichko’s preview of the United Gold Division from the Big Central Conference’s inaugural Media Days:

by Mike Pavlichko

North Group 4 Playoff Analysis: North Hunterdon appears locked into a No. 1 seed

With Cutoff Weekend coming up Friday and Saturday this week, Central Jersey Sports Radio is taking a look at every team in the Big Central to see where we think they’ll land in the playoffs.

We’re not looking at tiebreakers just yet, and even adding the few residuals to be had can make for infinitely more possibilities – although there are none up for grabs from any Big Central opponents at this point – so we’re not doing those either. But we are looking at where we think teams will fall in the top 16. Tune in to our Playoff Projection show Saturday at 6 pm on Central Jersey Sports Radio for all our unofficial pairings.

Below is our analysis, with each team’s current ranking in the UPR standings noted.

(Click here for official standings on Gridiron New Jersey)

#1 North Hunterdon: Even if the Lions (7-1) were to lose Voorhees (3-4) at home Friday night, it still wouldn’t matter what Irvington, Ramapo, Randolph, and Morris Knolls do behind the, We think North is set as the top overall team, meaning they would be the North 2, Group 4 top seed. Who gets the other No. 1 seed is still very much up in the air; Irvington’s not a lock with a tough game against West Orange.

#7 Ridge: The Red Devils (5-2) – contrary to our initial take – can’t quite grab the second overall position and the other No. 1 seed. We thought if they’d won at Union (2-5) and had a ton go right, including losses by six other teams around them, they could do it. But two of those teams – Randolph and Morris Knolls – play each other. So unless both decide to use an ineligible player and are granted losses (yes it could happen!) a No. 1 seed is out of the realm of possibility, we now believe, for Ridge. A top four finish is possible, though, if the Red Devils win. Undefeated Wayne Valley should beat winless Mount OIive, so beyond that huge upset, Ridge would need Ramapo (5-2) to lose to Ridgewood (5-2), and Randolph (6-1) to lose to Morris Knolls (6-1). On paper, those games could go either way. So, if Ridge wins, we call that a 50-50 shot. A loss, and Ridge could drop as low as nine, going on the road for the first round if everything breaks the wrong way around them.

#8 Colonia: The Patriots and the next few teams have so many possible scenarios and combos of winning and losing and other teams’ results, so we’ll just give their range. They could legitimately go as high as No. 7 overall, guaranteed at least a first-round home game, or drop as low as 13 in a worst-case scenario.

#11 Rahway: With Colonia being a strong team with just one loss, should they beat the Patriots, they could finish as high as an eight or nine overall, meaning a first-round home game is still in play. But we believe they’re in regardless of what happens; it looks like the lowest they can drop is 14 with a loss.

#12 Montgomery: Even with a loss to Linden, it looks like the Cougars are in, but destined to be on the road in the first round, as we peg them for a range of No. 10 to No. 15 overall.

#14 Sayreville: Similar to Montgomery, we think Sayreville is in whether they beat Woodbridge or not Friday night, and in the same 10-15 overall range.

#16 Woodbridge: Here’s where things start to get tricky. We thing the Barrons aren’t guaranteed of anything, even if they beat Sayreville Friday night, and the reason is the tiebreaker. If somehow, the Barrons end up a spot ahead of Linden, the Tigers have the tiebreaker by virtue of winning their regular season matchup. That’s even the case if Woodbridge finishes 16 and Linden finishes 17, regardless of power points, OSI or UPR. So, the Barrons need to finish two spots ahead of Linden if they end up at No. 16. Win, and it’s easier: they just need a loss by Linden and nothing else, and they’ll be the last team in. With a loss, they would not only need Linden to lose, but also Barringer to win Friday night against Nutley and Bergenfield to beat Pascack Valley on Saturday. Those have to happen to bump Linden to 18 so that Woodbridge avoids the tiebreaker. *We think.

#17 Linden: The Tigers, even though they’re behind Woodbridge, have it easier. With a win, even if everything else breaks wrong – including the Barrons winning – we have them at 17, with Woodbridge in 16th, and Linden getting the tiebreaker over the Barrons. We’ll see how it shakes out. And, as stated above, they could still get in with a loss, if things break right regarding Barringer and Bergenfield losing.

by Mike Pavlichko

UNOFFICIAL: Group 4 Playoff Standings Update

North Hunterdon keeps on winning, and keeps solidifying its position as No. 1 in the North Group 4 standings. Here’s a look at Central Jersey Sports Radio’s unofficial standings for both Group 4 supersections following Friday night’s Week 7 games:

With a win over Woodbridge, North Hunterdon remains a solid No. 1 – first in both power points and UPR – while Irvington remains No. 2, but dropped in UPR from 2 to 2.6, which is more breathing room for the Lions, whose only loss was a “good” loss – according to the OSI – to Phillipsburg.

Ridge‘s home win over Westfield helped it stay in 7th, inching closer to sewing up a top seed and a first-round home game in the sectionals. The Red Devils are at Union next Friday, and a win there should lock it up.

Colonia dropped from No. 9 to No. 10 based on other teams’ results, but still has to play this weekend – today at red-hot Summit, which is 3-3 but has won three in a row.

Rahway has pulled up behind them, from 14 to 11, after a win Friday night over Carteret, which snapped a three-game skid. And right behind the Indians are Montgomery, which pulled up from 13th to 12th after snapping a two-game losing streak with a win over Scotch Plains-Fanwood Friday night.

Sayreville drops from 10th to 14th with Friday night’s loss to Piscataway, which would have produced a good amount of power points to get the Bombers – we think – closer to the top eight. Now, that may not be possible.

On either side of the bubble are Woodbridge and Linden, both of whom lost Friday night. The two flip-flopped last week’s position, with the Barrons now in 16th and the Tigers now 17th. Why? The Barrons’ loss to North Hunterdon was “better” – according to the OSI – than the Tigers’ loss to Cranford.

Bottom Line: North Hunterdon should get that top seed. Ridge could wrap up a first-round home game with a win against Union, but might still be able to get it with a loss. Colonia may be in play for a top eight seed since they have two games to work with. Rahway and Montgomery maybe not so much. But we think they’re in the dance, so to speak. Sayreville should be. Woodbridge has Sayreville next week, and Linden is at Montgomery: consider them must-wins, and root against Middletown South.

In South 4, Middletown South and Hammonton switch places, but still hold the top two positions.

by Mike Pavlichko

Group 4 playoff analysis: North Hunterdon continues to rise; is a top-seed in play?

With just three weeks before Cutoff Weekend, we take a deeper dive into the playoff standings, after Week 5 results are tabluated by Gridiron New Jersey.

NORTH 4 (Click here for official standings)

After a big win over Colonia last weekend, North Hunterdon (5-1) continues to make its push up the standings, climbing from fifth last week to third this week. They boosted their power point average from 13.4 to 17 with a 25-point win over then 5-0 Colonia last week. Their OSI went from 58.77 to 63.01.

Randolph (5-0, 1 UPR) sits at No. 1, followed by Morris Knolls (4-1, 2.4 UPR), while the Lions are a 2.6 UPR. That’s oh-so-close. But there are a few snags in the plan if North Hunterdon wants one of the two No. 1 seeds. They are already second in power point average, so there’s little room to climb. They’re also just 0.29 UPR points behind Morris Knolls, and 1.05 behind Randolph, which leads the group, so there’s little room to climb there as well.

But both teams are in the same boat as they try to gain – or not lose – based on their upcoming schedules. Other than Montgomery this Friday, home to Woodbridge and Voorhees the final two weeks isn’t all that great. But neither is Morris Knolls’ schedule, with 0-6 Morris Hills at home this week, at 0-6 Mount Olive next week, and home to 5-0 Randolph on Saturday of Cutoff Weekend.

Irvington (4th, 4-2, 4.8 UPR) has taken a major hit losing two straight after a 4-0 start, and they don’t exactly have a schedule to make much of a dent either.

Bottom line? If North Hunterdon can take care of business and run the table the next three weeks – not an impossible task, on paper – it could come down to some scoreboard watching on Cutoff Saturday.

Colonia, meanwhile, despite dropping to 5-1 with that loss in Annandale last Friday night, didn’t drop. The Patriots remain in seventh; it was a “good loss” at least OSI-wise. They have a 6.8 UPR, and a 1.8 UPR lead over ninth-place Chatham. If they can dust themselves off – and QB Jaeden Jones is healthy after suffering what appeared to be a lower leg injury in the third quarter against North Hunterdon – and win their last three regular season games against Perth Amboy, at Summit, and at Rahway – a distinct possibility – they should hold on to a top eight seed and get at least a first-round home game in the playoffs.

Montgomery (5-1, 9.6 UPR) took a hit with its first loss of the season last week, but could be in play for a top-8 seed if they get back on the saddle, though they may need some help. It’s a tight jumble in the middle of this section, with Ridge (3-2, 11.4 UPR) and Sayreville (3-2, 11.4 UPR) tied right behind them.

A win for Monty over North Hunterdon would pay huge dividends, but they would also have to win at Scotch Plains and back in Skillman against Linden the last two weeks to get that first-round home game gaurantee. Ridge is at South Brunswick, home to Westfield, and at Union. Sayreville hosts Franklin and Piscataway before closing at Woodbridge. It all looks pretty even to us, but Montgomery may have the upper hand among the three.

Rahway (3-2) is in 13th place after dropping two in a row, with a 12.4 UPR. They may need to win two of three to really solidify a playoff spot, but they have a challenging schedule. This Friday they visit St. Thomas Aquinas, which is red hot, and hasn’t lost a conference game this season. They they host Carteret and Colonia to close things out.

Linden (3-2, 15.6 UPR) is in 15th and Woodbridge (2-4, 17.4 UPR) are bubble teams at this point. The Tigers are at least on the right side of things, and close with Summit, then Cranford at home, followed by a road game at Montgomery, while the Barrons have JFK, visit North Hunterdon, then host Sayreville. They’re on the wrong side of the bubble and appear to have the tougher schedule.

Too close to call for those two at this point.

SOUTH 4 (Click here for official standings)

There are no Big Central teams in the South 4 supersection, but with Group Finals in the picture this year, take note that Middletown South and Hammonton are in the top two slots here, and South still has a second multiplier to play; they lost to Red Bank Catholic a couple of weeks ago, and visit Donovan Catholic the Friday of Cutoff Weekend.

They should be a lock for a top-seed because of that. Hammonton is also a good bet to hold on, as well, at 5-1 and with a mostly strong schedule the next two weeks against Timber Creek and Delsea, a combined 10-1.

by Mike Pavlichko

Group 4 playoff analysis: North Hunterdon leads BCC teams packed tightly behind them

As we head into the final four weeks of the regular season before Cutoff Weekend in high school football, it’s time to start taking a closer look at the race for the playoffs. Here’s a look at Group 4; note that we only give a detailed breakdown of the North section since South 4 doesn’t include any teams from the Big Central Conference, the only such supersection in the state.

NORTH 4 (Click here for official standings)

Ramapo is the leader in this section, with Randolph right behind, but both UPRs are in the twos (2.2 for Ramapo, 2.4 for Randolph). That oddity is because while they are 1-and-2 in OSI, Ramapo is fourth in power points, while Randolph is third. (OSI weighs 60%, power points 40% in the state UPR formula).

The highest Big Central team is North Hunterdon in fifth, and there are a bunch of league teams sort of right behind them, and they play two of the three in the next couple of weeks. The Lions have a 5.6 UPR, followed by Wayne Valley (5.8) and Colonia (6.6). Rahway is eighth with a 9 UPR, and Montgomery – with a 10 UPR – is in tenth, followed by Sayreville (10.4 UPR).

That’s a fairly good-sized gap in the middle of the pack. It essentially means that the top seven teams are all tightly packed in the top of the power point and OSI standings; i.e. there’s no team in the top seven that’s very high (say, fourth) in one and very low (say, 12th) in the other.

North Hunterdon can really solidify things and maybe make a run at a top-four seed (and home field through the sectional semifinals) with wins the next two weeks. They host Colonia Friday night – where Central Jersey Sports Radio will have live updates during the Sayreville at East Brunswick game, which kicks off at 7:00 – and next week, North Hunterdon travels to Montgomery.

Now back to that gap: it’s a lot to make up, and if nobody can do it, we’ll have Rahway, Monty, Sayreville, Chatham and maybe more battling it out for that eighth spot, which means a first-round home playoff game.

Ridge in 14th is a good bet to make the playoffs, but Linden in 15th is a little more on the bubble, but at least on the good side.

Woodbridge, however, at 1-4, is in danger of missing the postseason for the first time since 2018. They are in 18th, with a 17.4 UPR. They may need to run the table, which would include not only winning at Perth Amboy this weekend and beating in-town rival JFK at home next week, but then winning out in Clinton over North Hunterdon on October 14th, and beating Sayreville at home on the Friday night of Cutoff Weekend.

Put it this way: for the Barrons, the playoffs start now.

SOUTH 4 (Click here for official standings)

Again, there are no Big Central teams here, but with the NJSIAA going to group finals for the first-time ever this year, it warrants a brief look.

The top two teams here are Middletown South (3-1) and Millville (2-1). They might not be were it not for the multiplier effect, as Middletown South lost to Red Bank Catholic – and still has Donovan Catholic later on. Millville beat St. Augustine two weeks ago.

There’s only one undefeated team in this section: 4-0 Pennsauken, in 6th place right now, with a 7.2 UPR. Their power point total is what hurts them