Cutoff Weekend Playoff Analysis: Rahway, Ridge look for top four finishes; Summit’s in; Montgomery, Woodbridge are relatively safe; Watchung Hills, Carteret fight to get in

It’s Cutoff Weekend in New Jersey, and with just under a half-dozen Thursday night games in the books, we’re taking a section-by-section look at every Big Central team in the playoff hunt.

Our pre-Cutoff analysis estimates 22 BCC squads have unofficially clinched a playoff berth, with eleven more still on the bubble.

You can find all our unofficial standings here.

This season’s playoff coverage – both leading up to and in the postseason – is proudly presented by Dayton Collision on Route 130 in South Brunswick! That includes all our analysis today, as well as our LIVE Playoff Projection Show, scheduled for Saturday at 6 pm with Mike Pavlichko and Marcus Borden.

NORTH GROUP 4:

• Starting with fifth-place Rahway (7-1), a win for the Indians over Edison (2-6) appears to give them a ceiling of three, so that means they could make it into the top four, which would guarantee home games at least through the sectional semifinals, but they would also need some help to get there, including losses by Ridge (to Old Bridge at home), Northern Highlands and Morris Knolls. Middletown North the solid No. 1 overall, regardless of a win or loss this weekend, but Roxbury is not assured of the No. 2. We also ran a couple of scenarios, and it appears for now Rahway could even get a four-seed should Ridge and Northern Northern Highland win, but Morris Knolls loses.
• Ridge (5-2) looks like its ceiling also is a little higher with a win at home over Old Bridge (7-1) Friday night, even if everyone around them loses. That’s because the Knights – with seven wins and a higher SI than Edison – is a bigger prize for the Red Devils this weekend. That’s going to be one heck of a matchup at Lee Field Friday night.
• Can either drop out of the top eight? We don’t think so. Anything that knocks Ridge or Rahway down into the bottom eight 1) would be of their own doing, as they certainly stay in the top eight with wins and 2) would probably include some doomsday scenario of everyone else in the field winning, and there are some tough games out there. So, we think that’s very unlikely, and Rahway and Ridge will open up at home regardless of this weekend’s outcomes.

• Summit (6-2) appears to have a chance of finishing as high as No. 7 if they can get losses by teams above them, and even behind them, like Garfield out of the NJIC. The Hilltoppers start the day at No. 11, however, so they will need a lot go go their way, in addition to the tough task of beating Bernards (6-2) this Saturday afternoon at Tatlock Field. The Mountaineers have won the last two matchups in this series, in 2023 and 2024. We’d lean about 60-40 in the direction of a bottom eight seed for Summit, mainly due to them needing a lot to go right around them to avoid it. Frankly, this is too soon to call still.
• Montgomery (5-3) sits in 13th, and we believe the Cougars are safe, even if they lose to Hillsborough (1-7) in the “Carty Bowl” Friday night in Skillman. Woodbridge (5-3), however, with a loss to Franklin (3-5) at home could potentially miss out if a disaster scenario with everyone else around them winning unfolds. But more likely than not, they get in. Neither has a shot at moving up to a top eight seed, so these two are essentially destined to start the playoffs on the road, it’s just a matter of where and in which bracket.
• Watchung Hills (4-4) and Carteret (4-4) both have good shots to make the field of 16 if they win this weekend. We think they are “win and in” or at least “win and very likely in” this weekend. The Warriors have a big prize in Bridgewater-Raritan (6-2), but will have to face the Panthers on the road, while the Ramblers host Monroe (4-4).
• The big question here is can Colonia (2-5) make it? The Patriots have South Brunswick (3-5) on the blue turf Friday night. A win alone won’t do it, only nudging them up one spot from 19 to 18, and it doesn’t look like there’s a path to getting in, even with help.