Cutoff Weekend Playoff Analysis: Cranford very much in play for a North 4 top seed; Somerville is in, while South Plainfield faces a do-or-die against Amboy

It’s Cutoff Weekend in New Jersey, and with just under a half-dozen Thursday night games in the books, we’re taking a section-by-section look at every Big Central team in the playoff hunt.

Our pre-Cutoff analysis estimates 22 BCC squads have unofficially clinched a playoff berth, with eleven more still on the bubble.

You can find all our unofficial standings here.

This season’s playoff coverage – both leading up to and in the postseason – is proudly presented by Dayton Collision on Route 130 in South Brunswick! That includes all our analysis today, as well as our LIVE Playoff Projection Show, scheduled for Saturday at 6 pm with Mike Pavlichko and Marcus Borden.

NORTH GROUP 3:

• Undefeated Cranford (7-0) is still well in the running for a top-two finish, and therefore, one of the top two seeds. It helps they have Hillside (7-1) with an SI over 80, but that of course means they need to win the game. The teams have split the last two years, with the Comets winning last season, but this year’s Cougars are much improved. Even with an Old Tappan loss this weekend (they’re also undefeated at 7-0) Cranford can get a top seed, regardless of whether the two other teams currently ahead of them – West Essex and Wayne Hills, both 7-1 – win this weekend. Essentially, whether Cranford gets a top seed or not appears all up to them; win and they get it. But the nice part about playing Hillside is that even with a loss, and wins by teams behind them like Shabazz, River Dell and Holmdel, we believe Cranford will finish in the top four, meaning they are guaranteed home field advantage through at least the sectional semifinals. A stroke of scheduling here as Cranford really sitting pretty.
• How high can Somerville (5-3) go? They’re in a similar situation to Cranford, as the Pioneers visit Elizabeth (8-0) Friday night. Follow Alec Crouthamel on Twitter for updates. A win could bump them as high as eight, giving Somerville a first-round home game. And yes, that’s giving everyone around them wins. While, on paper this game may look like it favors the Minutemen, who have been scoring a shade over 40 points per game, Somerville can still play offense with the best of them, and in a free-wheeling game, anything can happen. A loss, and they likely fall into the 12/13 range, the difference between a six- or a seven-seed once they go into their section.

• It also looks like South Plainfield (4-4) is in full control of where it lands. A win over Perth Amboy (6-2) at Jost Field Friday night should get the Tigers in, even projecting wins for everyone around them, thanks to the Panthers’ record and a much-improved SI value from the beginning of the season; they rose 24.23 points to a 66.70 since the start of the year. A loss and it looks like the Tigers are out, even with a lot of help. We’ll call this an all-or-nothing game for South Plainfield.