Cutoff Weekend Playoff Analysis: Old Bridge very much alive for top-seed in South 5; Sayreville should open at home; Monroe, South Brunswick, Hillsborough all have a shot from the bubble

It’s Cutoff Weekend in New Jersey, and with just under a half-dozen Thursday night games in the books, we’re taking a section-by-section look at every Big Central team in the playoff hunt.

Our pre-Cutoff analysis estimates 22 BCC squads have unofficially clinched a playoff berth, with eleven more still on the bubble.

You can find all our unofficial standings here.

This season’s playoff coverage – both leading up to and in the postseason – is proudly presented by Dayton Collision on Route 130 in South Brunswick! That includes all our analysis today, as well as our LIVE Playoff Projection Show, scheduled for Saturday at 6 pm with Mike Pavlichko and Marcus Borden.

SOUTH GROUP 5:

• Old Bridge (7-1) enters the weekend at third, behind Washington Twp. at No. 1 and Rancocas Valley at No. 2, both 8-0 on the season. And the good news for the Knights is that neither has any cupcakes this weekend, but they have to win to have a crack at the top two; they can’t back in, and they have a very tough game at Ridge (5-2) Friday night.. The Minutemen have the tougher of the two other matchups, by far, as they play at St. Augustine (7-1) while the Red Devils host Burlington Twp. (4-4) Friday night. Washington Twp. hasn’t lost a game in two seasons, and even a loss to the Hermits probably doesn’t even bump them down due to their record and high SI value. Here’s what it looks like Old Bridge needs for a top seed: a win, a loss by Rancocas Valley (Washington Twp. is irrelevant), and also Toms River North. Southern – which couldn’t displace Old Bridge on a win alone – could get boosted into the two spot, knocking the Knights down to three, with TRN sitting in fourth. A Sayreville win (they sit in sixth entering Friday) doesn’t seem to hurt Old Bridge, which beat the Bombers earlier this season.
• Sayreville (6-2) seems to be somewhat limited here. The Bombers – who play host to Piscataway (7-1) in the Bellamy & Son Paving Big Central Game of the Week Friday night at 7 – appear to have a ceiling of sixth place, even in everyone above them (regardless of what Washington Twp. does) loses; that would include Old Bridge, Rancocas Valley, Southern and Toms River North. They still might need some help. As for a loss by the Bombers, due to the Chiefs’ high SI and seven wins, we think Sayreville holds on to a top-eight seed. In fact, they appear now to be locked in at either six or seven, one of the more definitive positions this weekend.

• Monroe (4-4) at Carteret (4-4) Friday night is a tough one for the Falcons, and it may be do-or-die. Win, and we think they’re in, and could be as high as 13. A loss and they may be out. Remember, Kingsway is ineligible at 0-8 no matter what they do this weekend; two is the minimum number of wins required by the NJSIAA for playoff qualification. But that may not be enough to help Monroe should they lose.
• Can South Brunswick (3-5) get in? Assuming no other games were played, the Vikings make it to 18 with a win, but that’s really 17 when you take out Kingsway. While they own a tiebreaker over Monroe, it’s highly unlikely they’ll end up in such an order at 16 and 17 overall, so that doesn’t appear to be a route in for the South Brunswick. A Trenton (4-4) loss at Ewing (5-3) is plausible, and that could help, getting them to 16 after taking out Kingsway. Cherokee already lost Thursday, so they can’t get any more help from them. But a loss by Monroe would give South Brunwick even a bigger boost, perhaps as high as 14 overall. So, yes, they are very much alive.
• …And in that scenario, Hillsborough (1-7) may have shot, but they’ll have to beat Montgomery (5-3) on the road in the “Carty Bowl” Friday night. That would get them to the minimum two wins, and also to 17 before taking out Kingsway, meaning they would be the last team in. But they need Monroe and Trenton losses. A South Brunswick loss also may help. The Raiders need to win and hope for the best.