Cutoff Weekend Playoff Analysis: Elizabeth, Piscataway still in hunt for a top seed, Phillipsburg a longshot in North 5; Franklin, Linden have a chance to make the field

It’s Cutoff Weekend in New Jersey, and with just under a half-dozen Thursday night games in the books, we’re taking a section-by-section look at every Big Central team in the playoff hunt.

Our pre-Cutoff analysis estimates 22 BCC squads have unofficially clinched a playoff berth, with eleven more still on the bubble.

You can find all our unofficial standings here.

This season’s playoff coverage – both leading up to and in the postseason – is proudly presented by Dayton Collision on Route 130 in South Brunswick! That includes all our analysis today, as well as our LIVE Playoff Projection Show, scheduled for Saturday at 6 pm with Mike Pavlichko and Marcus Borden.

NORTH GROUP 5:

• Elizabeth (7-0) has a shot at a top seed, if they can beat Somerville (5-3) Friday night at Williams Field. Even though West Orange and Ramapo are in the top two spots, wins by them appear to be irrelevant. But the Minutemen may want to keep an ear on our Bellamy & Son Paving Big Central Game of the Week, which features Piscataway at Sayreville. We believe Elizabeth needs a Piscataway loss to get that overall top seed. Should Elizabeth lose, they likely finish as low as five.
• Piscataway (7-1) also has a crack at that top seed with a win at Sayrveille (6-2) Friday night (LIVE at 7 pm on CJSR). In fact, we believe they can still get a top seed even if a number of other teams win, such as Ramapo, West Orange, East Orange, Phillipsburg, Bridgewater and Irvington come out victorious this weekend, even Elizabeth.
• Could both get top seeds? Yes, we think if everyone at the top of the field wins this weekend – including Piscataway and Elizabeth, it looks like the Chiefs at No. 1 and the Minutemen at No. 2. As for a top four finish, that is very much up in the air with a lot of possibilities, but likely both need at least a win to get there.

• Phillipsburg (5-2) could get the overall No. 1 seed, but would likely need losses by West Orange, Elizabeth, Piscataway and Ramapo, or some combination of at least three of those. It’s a longshot, and the Stateliners – even with a win – are hurt by having one-win Hunterdon Central at Maloney Friday night.
• Bridgewater-Raritan (6-2) appears to have a ceiling of seventh overall in the field of 16, but that’s if everyone ahead of them loses (Passaic Tech won Friday night over Columbia, which hurt them a bit). But that’s an unlikely scenario. Bottom line: The defending North 2, Group 5 champion Panthers (if that’s where they end up) will need to beat Watchung Hills (4-4) Friday night and need some help to earn a first-round home game.
• Perth Amboy (6-2) visits South Plainfield (4-4) Friday night, but we think the Panthers are a bottom eight team here, and will start the playoffs on the road. Too many scenarios here with some tightly packed teams to know where they end up yet, however.

• Union (5-3) will be in, but a game at Linden (3-4) Friday night doesn’t look like it’s going to move the needle. We project a mid-bottom eight finish, and a first round road game.
• Franklin (3-5) and Linden (3-4) appear to control their own fates. A win for the Warriors at Woodbridge (5-3) would appear to get them in, regardless of what anyone else does. A Passaic win doesn’t appear to bump them, Livingston already won at Bloomfield Thursday evening. Same for the Tigers, we think they are most likely a “win and in” team here, unless something wacky happens, and it could.
• Plainfield (2-6) appears too far gone to get in, at least without some help. It looks like a win, and losses by Franklin and Linden, still only get them to 17, and they’re 1.4 UPR back, a lot to make up with help, and they only have a tiebreaker over Linden.