Week 7 Playoff Analysis: Rahway moves into top-seed slot in North 4, Cranford edges closer in North 3; South Plainfield, Carteret, Woodbridge all need wins to stay on right side of bubble

With just one more week before Cutoff Weekend in New Jersey High School football, we’re taking another detailed look at the standings and scenarios facing every public school in the Big Central Conference that’s in contention for a playoff berth.

Assuming scores are reported in a timely fashion Friday night, we’ll also publish updated standings and some light analysis late Friday or early Saturday morning. Our next update will be next week, leading up to the cutoff.

This season’s playoff coverage – both leading up to and in the postseason – is proudly presented by Dayton Collision on Route 130 in South Brunswick! That includes all our analysis over the next few weeks, as well as our LIVE Playoff Projection Show, scheduled for Saturday evening, October 23rd, and tentatively set for 6 pm.

Here’s a detailed team-by-team look at the North 4 and North 3 supersections as we head into Week 7 play this Thursday, Friday and Saturday. (Note: There are no Big Central Conference teams classified in the South 4 or South 4 supersections.)

NORTH GROUP 4:

• While Middletown North (5-0, 1.8 UPR) sits atop the North 4 supersection, Rahway (6-1, 2.8) made a huge jump in the past week, climbing from the 5th spot, over Ridge, to pull up into the No. 2 overall position. They still have teams behind them that could catch them, like Roxbury (5-2, 3.4, 3rd) and Northern highlands (4-2, 3.6, 4th), and even possible Ridge (4-2, 4.6, 5th). The downside for the Indians is they are at Colonia and home against Edison next week, both 2-5 and not allowing for many residuals. Roxbury has Mount Olive (4-2) and Mendham (3-4), a tougher schedule, but then again, that also could mean a greater chance they drop one of those games than Rahway does. And Northern Highlands has Old Tappan (6-0) and Pascack Valley (3-4), so the same goes for the Highlanders.
• As for the Red Devils, the above scenarios with Roxbury and Northern Highlands could help them; despite having Hillsborough (1-5) this week and not many residuals, a win over Old Bridge, who could be 7-1 by next week could do the trick if Roxbury and/or Northern Highlands drop one of their two remaining games. Ultimately, we think Rahway has a good shot to finish with a top-seed, and Ridge likely finishes in the top four.
• Summit (5-2, 8.0) is probably out of reach of a top four finish, but is hardly assured a top eight finish, which would guarantee at least one home game in the playoffs. Their remaining two games are not necessarily daunting, but certainly are enough, we think, to keep them in the top eight should they win out. A split would be another matter.
• Montgomery (4-3, 9.4) is only one UPR point out of the top eight, but even winning out may not be enough to move the needle, as they play at winless North Hunterdon (0-7) this week ad home against Hillsborough (1-6) next week. They’re in the playoffs, but we think will start on the road in the opening round.
• Woodbridge (4-3, 14.0) and Carteret (4-3, 14.6) sit in 14th and 15th place, respectively, but are very much on the bubble, albeit the right side of it. They will need to hold off 16th-place Hackensack (3-3, 15.4) and Watchung Hills (3-4, 16.4), but are probably safe from 18th-place Nutley (2-5, 18.4). So, we see five teams battling it out for the last four playoff spots, if you want to throw Middletown South (3-3, 13.20) in the mix of potentially vulnerable teams, though they would be the least of all. We think the Barrons and Carteret will make it, assuming they at least split their last two games ; Woodbridge has Linden (3-3) and Franklin (2-5), both at home, while Carteret has a tougher slate, though both are at home: unbeaten Cranford (6-0) and Monroe (4-3). And what about the Warriors? They have a pair of road games with Plainfield (2-5) and Bridgewater-Raritan (6-1), and interesting mix. A split leaves them a good chance, but a sweep might be a big ask.
• Last one here: Does Colonia (2-5, 19.8, 20th) have a shot? They have a lot of teams to jump, and are 4.4 UPR points out of the top 16. They would probably have to sweep Rahway (6-1) and South Brunswick (3-4), both of which are at home, and do a lot of scoreboard watching, dig out the rabbit’s foot, etc.

NORTH GROUP 3:

• Cranford has edges closer in UPR to the top two, which would get them a top-seed, but the Cougars (6-0) still aren’t quite there yet. Old Tappan (6-0, 1.4 UPR) still leads the section, followed by Shabazz (5-1, 2.4), which leads Cranford by just 0.4 UPR points, as the lead shrunk by one full point after last week’s games. That makes this still too close to call. But the good news is Cranford has two strong opponents the next two weeks: at Carteret (4-3) for the United Gold championship Friday night, and home against Hillside (6-1) next week. At least one win there might still be enough to jump Shabazz, which hosts Snyder (1-6) then Newark West Side (3-4) the last two weeks. Bottom line: We like the Cougars’ chances at a top-seed if they win out. And it might even be possible to gain the overall No. 1, depending how Old Tappan does. Yes, they are unbeaten, but close with two road games: at Northern Highlands (4-2) and at Montville (6-1). Yes, we really like the Cougars’ chances.
• Somerville (4-3, 11.2) drops a spot this week from nine to ten, and at 4.2 UPR points behind eighth-place River Dell (5-2, 7.6), here’s a solid prediction: they’re in, and will start on the road, with little to no chance of a top eight finish.
• South Plainfield (4-3, 15.8) drops from 15 to 16 this week, and the Tigers will need to do some winning here in the final two weeks. They could move up, but they could also drop out – the epitome of a bubble team. South Plainfield closes at Governor Livingston (3-4) this week and with Perth Amboy (6-1) at home on Cutoff Weekend. As of now, we think they need to win both. But let’s see how the teams around them do this week before we make a determination on the Amboy game. Nipping at their heels are Pascack Valley (3-4, 16.2, 17th) just 0.4 UPR behind the Tigers, and 18th-place Paramus (4-3, 16.8 UPR), just one UPR point behind.