Week 7 Playoff Analysis: Elizabeth still in the hunt, Piscataway narrows the gap in North 5 top-seed chase; Linden, Plainfield on the bubble; Old Bridge falls to four in South 5, Monroe, South Brunswick teeter around 16

With just one more week before Cutoff Weekend in New Jersey High School football, we’re taking another detailed look at the standings and scenarios facing every public school in the Big Central Conference that’s in contention for a playoff berth.

Assuming scores are reported in a timely fashion Friday night, we’ll also publish updated standings and some light analysis late Friday or early Saturday morning. Our next update will be next week, leading up to the cutoff.

This season’s playoff coverage – both leading up to and in the postseason – is proudly presented by Dayton Collision on Route 130 in South Brunswick! That includes all our analysis over the next few weeks, as well as our LIVE Playoff Projection Show, scheduled for Saturday evening, October 23rd, and tentatively set for 6 pm.

Here’s a detailed team-by-team look at the Group 5 supersections, North and South as we head into Week 7 play this Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

NORTH GROUP 5:

• The top two teams have flipped here, with West Orange (5-1, 1.6 UPR) now in first, ahead of Ramapo (4-2, 2.2). But that leaves Elizabeth (7-0, 2.6) still in the chase in third, but now 0.4 UPR points back, when last week they were just 0.2 away. However, Piscataway (6-1, 3.6) is a bit closer, even though they’re still at No. 4, since they’re just 1.4 out of the top two; last week the difference was two whole points. What’s that all mean? This is still wide-open, and the one to keep an eye on is Ramapo, which plays Wayne Hills (6-1) this week. A loss their could open the door for the Minutemen or the Chiefs.
• Bridgewater-Raritan (6-1, 6.2) is down two spots to seven, but a win at Phillipsburg this Friday night – in a game you can hear live on Central Jersey Sports Radio at 7 pm – likely does wonders for the Panthers. Even a trip to Union next week could give them a boost. They might need some help from the teams above them, however. We’ll know much more around 9:30 Friday night.
• Phillipsburg (4-2, 8.8) was idle last week but dropped one spot in the standings to ninth. We don’t think they have a shot at the top four, but they should finish in the top eight if they beat Bridgewater-Raritan at Maloney Friday night. If not, a win over Hunterdon Central on Cutoff Weekend might not be enough to earn a first round home game.
• Union (5-2, 10.4) is in tenth – same as they were last week – but they dropped in their UPR number, and likely aren’t within reach of the top eight, even if they were to beat Bridgewater-Raritan at home next week. The Farmers are in the playoffs, but likely start out on the road.
• Perth Amboy (6-1, 10.8) is having its best season in decades, and last week’s huge win at New Providence moves them up from a bubble team at No. 15 to squarely in the playoff picture at eleven. Like Union, they should end up on the road in the first round.
• Plainfield (2-5, 15.0) and Linden (3-3, 16.0) currently hold the last two playoff spots as true 15s and 16s (meaning they are both 15 and 16 in both power points and OSI). They are far from safe, however, with Bloomfield (3-4, 17.0) and Livingston (4-3, 18.0) the two most likely to challenge them. The Cardinals likely have to win Friday against Watchung Hills (3-4) and next Saturday at Westfield (2-5) to control their own destiny; same for Linden, which has a tougher schedule, but more points available this Friday at Woodbridge (4-3) and next Friday at home against Union (5-2)

SOUTH GROUP 5:

• This section is still led by unbeaten Washington Twp. (7-0, 2.2 UPR), but now Southern (6-1, 2.4) has jumped up into second, knocking Rancocas Valley (7-0, 2.6) to third and Old Bridge (6-1, 2.8) down to fourth, but the Knights are still in the thick of things. They have East Brunswick (3-4) at home this week, which may not move the needle much, but a win at Ridge (4-2) Friday night of Cutoff Weekend would, so don’t count them out for a top seed this year. The only thing we know here is it won’t be decided this week.
• Sayreville (5-2, 6.8) has pulled into a sixth-place tie with Williamstown (5-2), and with both a full four UPR points out of the top four, we think it’s unlikely either gets there. For the Bombers, that includes a scenario where they win both their remaining games. While they have Piscataway (6-1) Cutoff Weekend, having North Brunswick (1-6) this week doesn’t help much. A top eight finish, however, appears very likely, especially if Jackson Twp. (2-5, 9.6, 9th) splits their last two games with Wall and Point Pleasant Boro, both on the road. A win over the Chiefs’ would lock that in, for sure.
• Then, we get down to the 16th and final spot, currently a tie between Freehold Twp. (3-4, 16.6) and Monroe (4-3, 16.6). As for now, the tiebreaker would go to Freehold Twp. here, as they have not played head-to-head and have no common opponents; that puts it on OSI – where there are rarely ties – with Freehold at 42.49 and Monroe at 40.18. The Falcons have some winning to do, and the good news is neither of their last two games will hurt them, unless they lose both. They’ve got Piscataway at home this week and Carteret at the Pit next Friday. A split is good, but a sweep is better for the Falcons. But they also have a team nipping at their heels…
• …and that team is South Brunswick (3-4, 16.8). The Vikings are just 0.2 UPR points behind Monroe and Freehold Twp, so any movement they make upward in either power points of OSI would put them in the top 16. They’ve got Franklin (2-5) at home this week and Colonia (2-5) next week. They might have to win both. But here’s one positive: should they end up at 17 and Monroe at 16, South Brunswick would jump them and get in the playoffs on the head-to-head rule. But, keep in mind, you can only jump a team on head-to-head if they are directly above you. Inotherwords, if it was Monroe at 14, Freehold at 15 and South Brunswick at 16, the Vikings would be left out in the cold, but…
• …there’s one caveat to the above scenarios with Monroe and South Brunswick: Kingsway. The Dragons – the defending South Jersey Group 5 champions, who are 0-7 – currently sit in 14th place in the standings. (Yes, it’s ridiculous that a winless team should be up that high in any formula, but that’s another argument for another day.) The minimum for playoff qualification is two, so unless they win both remaining games, they’re out, and you can bump the Falcons and Vikings up one more spot. That puts Freehold and Monroe tied for 15, with South Brunswick at 17. Kingsway hosts 6-1 St. Augustine this Saturday, a pretty big ask for a winless team, so we highly anticipate them being ineligible and this revised scenario playing out. And with Cherokee (1-6, 18.6) and Hillsborough (1-6, 20.0) the closest teams behind Monroe and South Brunswick, we don’t think they will have the fend them off much.