Cutoff Weekend Preview: Group 5 UPR Analysis

As we head into Cutoff Weekend across New Jersey High School Football, Central Jersey Sports Radio will go supersection by supersection and take a look at where teams in the Big Central Conference stand.

Upwards of 30 of the 59 teams in the league appear to be in contention for a playoff spot. Some are very much assured a spot, others may be significant longshots.

We’re not going to get into matchups yet, as that can change a lot between now and the brackets. Instead, we’re focused on a few things:

Who’s got a shot at a top seed? The top two finishers in each supersection gets home field through the sectional finals, with the overall No. 1 getting home field for a potential group semifinal.
Who’s in the top four? Those teams get home field at least through sectional semifinals.
Who’s in the top eight? The first eight teams in each supersection get at least a first round home game.
Who’s in and who’s on the bubble? It all depends on how bunched up the teams are. Tenth place in one section could be considered clinched, or it could be just on the right side of the bubble.

Click here for a playoff primer, to answer all your questions about how the playoffs are actually seeded. Please note: the UPR standings in the above story may be off slightly as they were published after out-of-state Strength index numbers were updated Tuesday by Gridiron New Jersey. Those will affect seven public schools that played out-of-state teams in 2024.

On Saturday at 6 pm, Central Jersey Sports Radio will present its annual “Playoff Projection Show,” presented by the Higgins Speed Lab, sponsor of all our 2024 playoff coverage. Higgins Speed Lab is founded and owned by Kyle Higgins, the son of longtime Piscataway football coach Dan Higgins.

Now, on to our analysis!

NORTH GROUP 5

Top Seeds: Union City (6-1) is No. 1, with Ridgewood (5-2) at No. 2. The Soaring Eagles should beat Columbia (1-6) this weekend, but Ridgewood has a tougher opponent in Wayne Valley (5-3). If both win, the Maroons could take over the top spot.
Elizabeth (4-4, 3rd): The Minutemen snapped a four-game skid two weeks ago with a win at Morristown, but followed it up with a stunner at Watchung Hills to propel them into third place. But with Union (1-7) their opponent this week, even a win might knock them down a bit. There’s no path to a top two seed, but assuming Elizabeth can beat the Farmers to make it three straight wins heading into the playoffs, we like them as a top four team. Whether they end up three or four may depend on other outcomes.
Bridgewater-Raritan (3-5, 6th): The Panthers are this high due to their daunting schedule, a murderer’s row that includes nine playoff teams, including the top three teams in the North 4 supersection, Phillipsburg, Ridge and Morris Knolls, a combined 19-2 on the season. Believe it or not, if the Panthers can beat Phillipsburg (6-1) at home this weekend, it would be such a big victory that if Ridgewood falls to Wayne Valley, they could end up as one of the top seeds. With a loss, they likely remain a top eight team, getting at least a first round game at home, unless everything else goes against them.
Piscataway (4-4, 7th): The Chiefs have had an up-and-down season. If they can finish strong with a win over Monroe (4-4) Friday night, they could very well stay right where they are. Even with help, they’re not likely to move up much. They’re not going to miss the playoffs, but they could end up around 11 with a loss to the Falcons, depending on how everything else plays out.
Plainfield (4-3, 13th): A win for the Cardinals over Linden (4-4) at Hub Stine Field Friday night should lock up a spot. But a loss, on its own, could knock Plainfield down to 15. And then, the Cardinals might have to sweat out a few teams behind them. So, this is a “win-and-in,” “lose-and-hope” game for Plainfield.
Linden (4-4, 14th): They’re a true bubble team. A win over the Cardinals could get the Tigers up as high as 12, where they would start the playoffs on the road. There’s no real chance they could crack the top eight. A loss may not drop them much, but they may have to sweat it out as well.
Union (1-7, 18th): The Farmers may be two spots out and 2.6 UPR points out of 16th, but the thing to remember about one-win teams is this: they stand more to gain from a win than a team with seven wins. After all, a second win when you only have one doubles your win total. When you have seven, it’s a much smaller percentage. It comes down to this: A win doesn’t guarantee they’re in, but it gives them reason to hope. A loss, and they mope; two wins is the minimum to get in the playoffs, regardless of where you stand.

SOUTH GROUP 5

Top Seeds: Barring something crazy happening, Toms River North (8-0) should easily be the top overall seed here, and the Mariners would be considered a heavy favorite to win not only a sectional final, but also a top contender to win all of Group 5. Washington Township (6-2) is second and would get the other top seed, but Atlantic City and Rancocas Valley – also both 6-2 – are within 1.2 UPR points, and could challenge for that overall No. 2 seed.
Hillsborough (5-3, 5th): With a home win over Hunterdon Central (4-4) on Friday, we think the Raiders could finish as high as fourth, but they would need a loss by Rancocas Valley (6-2) at Lenape (1-7) to make that happen, and that isn’t likely. To be honest, anyone here would want to avoid being in the same bracket as Toms River North, and that would be the fourth or fifth seed, so ‘Boro might be better off with a sixth- or seventh-place finish. The Raiders opened the season 2-3 but have won three straight since, but if they fall to the Red Devils, they could drop there. The Raiders are a top eight team, regardless, we think, and they should start the playoffs at home.
Old Bridge (5-3, 10th): The Knights play at Colonia (4-4) Friday night in a game you can hear on Central Jersey Sports Radio, with kickoff at 6 and pregame at 5:45 pm. With a win on its own, the Knights could end up as high as seventh, give or take depending on how everyone else does. Point is: they have a shot at a top eight seed. A loss leaves them starting the playoffs on the road, but they also should be in regardless.
Franklin (4-4, 13th), Hunterdon Central (4-4, 15th), Edison (4-4, 15th): This is just too close to speculate or call right now, as to where they’re going to finish, as only 0.6 UPR points separates Franklin (14 UPR) from Hunterdon Central (14) and Edison (14.6). The Eagles play first this weekend, on Thursday at home against Paterson Eastside (2-6). The Red Devils are at Hillsborough (5-3) and have the most to gain with a win, while the Warriors play at North Brunswick (1-7). On their own, if Central wins they can get up to tenth, then move a bit based on what other teams do. It’s doubtful they have a shot at the top eight, but a win secures a berth. Wins by Franklin and Edison would put them at 14th and 15th, respectively, so they might still need some losses by teams around them to hang in there. With losses by all three, Hunterdon Central and Franklin are both likely in, but Edison drops to 17 and may need a little help. The one good thing is if Williamstown (1-7) loses to Kingsway (6-2), which is very likely, they’ll have just one win and be ineligible for the playoffs, so Edison could sneak in there, but still might need some help.
Sayreville (3-5, 19th): Let’s lay our cards on the table: The Bombers have the most Herculean task of any bubble team, regardless of help. Should they pull off the upset of the year and knock off third-ranked St. Thomas Aquinas in North Edison Friday night, they very well could qualify for the playoffs, but it may not be guaranteed. But even with the Trojans being a mutliplier, a loss should keep them out, though they still might be able to back in. We’ll have a lot more clarity after Friday night when we see what everyone else does.
Monroe (4-4, 20th): The Falcons may not be out of it yet. Rest assured, they need to win to have a prayer, but a victory over Piscataway (5-3) would help enormously, and with losses by the triumvirate of Edison, Franklin and Hunterdon Central, could get as high as 14, give or take. They’re still in it.