Cutoff Weekend Preview: Group 3 and 4 UPR Analysis

As we head into Cutoff Weekend across New Jersey High School Football, Central Jersey Sports Radio will go supersection by supersection and take a look at where teams in the Big Central Conference stand.

Upwards of 30 of the 59 teams in the league appear to be in contention for a playoff spot. Some are very much assured a spot, others may be significant longshots.

We’re not going to get into matchups yet, as that can change a lot between now and the brackets. Instead, we’re focused on a few things:

Who’s got a shot at a top seed? The top two finishers in each supersection gets home field through the sectional finals, with the overall No. 1 getting home field for a potential group semifinal.
Who’s in the top four? Those teams get home field at least through sectional semifinals.
Who’s in the top eight? The first eight teams in each supersection get at least a first round home game.
Who’s in and who’s on the bubble? It all depends on how bunched up the teams are. Tenth place in one section could be considered clinched, or it could be just on the right side of the bubble.

Click here for a playoff primer, to answer all your questions about how the playoffs are actually seeded. Please note: the UPR standings in the above story may be off slightly as they were published after out-of-state Strength index numbers were updated Tuesday by Gridiron New Jersey. Those will affect seven public schools that played out-of-state teams in 2024.

On Saturday at 6 pm, Central Jersey Sports Radio will present its annual “Playoff Projection Show,” presented by the Higgins Speed Lab, sponsor of all our 2024 playoff coverage. Higgins Speed Lab is founded and owned by Kyle Higgins, the son of longtime Piscataway football coach Dan Higgins.

Now, on to our analysis!

NORTH GROUP 4

Top Seeds: This is where it gets very interesting. Currently, the top two spots are held by Phillipsburg and Ridge, both of whom are 6-1. Phillipsburg has Bridgewater-Raritan (3-4) on the road, while Ridge entertains Westfield (4-3), and if both win, they would stay in that order. But there are two caveats. First, Ridge beat Phillipsburg back on September 20th, so if they end up next to each other, with the ‘Liners first, the Red Devils would have a head-to-head tiebreaker and jump them. Still, both would have top seeds, just in different sections. But here’s the other wrinkle: If undefeated Morris Knolls (7-0) beats West Essex (6-1) Friday night, the Golden Eagles could end up No. 1 overall. And if Woodbridge wins – meaning all top four teams won – that could inset the Barrons in between Phillipsburg and Ridge, in which case the Red Devils can’t make the jump. So even the Ridge could end up in fourth. Bottom line? Much of this will shake out Friday night.
Woodbridge (8-0, 4th): Yes, the Barrons do have a path to a top seed. And they could even be the overall No. 1. But they would need Phillipsburg, Morris Knolls and Ridge to lose for that to happen. Northern Highlands won’t be a factor, at least not as Woodbridge is concerned, but they could end up No. 2 overall in this scenario if they win at Ramapo (4-3). If not, and Ramapo wins, they could knock Ridge to No. 5 and push Phillipsburg up to second. There are so many combos here, but essentially any of these teams could end up with one of the two No. 1 seeds in either North Section 1 or Section 2.
Westfield (4-3, 10th): In keeping with the Ridge loss against Westfield scenario that gives Woodbridge and others a chance, that would mean the Blue Devils could jump up to around eighth place, and have a crack at a home playoff game in the first round. A loss, and they are still in the playoffs, but most likely in the bottom eight.
Rahway (6-2, 12th): The Indians are stuck a little here on their last game. After beating winless New Brunswick last week, they get Montgomery (0-8) on the road this week. Besides the long hike, even a win could drop them to around No. 14. They’ll qualify for sure, but Rahway is virtually guaranteed to be getting on a bus next week.
Watchung Hills (5-3, 15th): No one has beaten Somerville yet this year, but the Warriors travel to Brooks Field Friday night to take their shot against the Pioneers (8-0). A win would be massive, and while it’s unlikely to get them a top eight seed and a first round playoff game – last year they hosted a sectional semifinal at home – they could improve their standing greatly by jumping up to tenth. Should they lose, they may be looking behind them to see if they get caught by any of the teams outside the bubble. We gave the first three teams outside of the top 16 wins (Teaneck, North Hunterdon and Hackensack) but they still appear to be in.
Colonia (4-4, 16th): Last year was a lot more touch-and-go for Colonia in its Cutoff Weekend game with Rahway. We believed Colonia either team would be in with a win; the Patriots got it, but some residual and other quirks had them – and us – hanging on the edge of our collective seats. They made it – after a few concerned phone calls – but this year, they seem like they might be in. A victory over Old Bridge could bump them up a couple of spots. But with a loss, we think they might still make it even if Teaneck, North Hunterdon and Hackensack all win. Even with the next two teams, Orange and Millburn winning, we still think they might be in. Anything can happen with a random residual here or there, so the best course of action is to beat Old Bridge. You can hear that game on Central Jersey Sports Radio. It’s a 6 pm kickoff.

SOUTH GROUP 4

Top Seeds: Currently, it’s Millville (6-1) followed by Winslow (8-0). Brick Memorial (6-2) might have a shot from third if things break right.
There are no Big Central teams in this section.

NORTH GROUP 3

Top Seeds: The top four teams in the supersection are all “pure” UPRs, with Old Tappan (7-0) and West Essex (6-1) followed by Pascack Valley (6-1) and West Morris (7-1). It’s a tight bunch and a lot can happen here.
Cranford (5-2, 9th): The Cougars are teetering on edge of the top eight bubble. With five wins, they can make up less ground with a sixth, even with Hillside (5-3) coming into town this Friday night. They could reach No. 8 with a win, but that doesn’t factor any other teams in. If they get some help, they could edge up further; if not, they could end up out of the top eight. A loss would definitely prevent them from getting a first round home game, but they’d be in the playoffs, and they might not drop much either.
Summit (4-2, 10th): The Hilltoppers are in a similar situation, but also playing a weaker opponent in Scotch Plains-Fanwood (3-5). Win or loss, they may not budge much, we figure them in the 10-12 range for now.
Carteret (3-5, 19th): Do the Ramblers have a path to the playoffs? Well, they have Bernards (8-0) this week, which has won 22 straight Big Central games. A loss and they should be out. A win still might not get them in, moving them just to 18th on their own. If we give Roxbury, Morris Hills, Weequahic, Warren Hills and Dwight Morrow losses, we still thinks that only gets the Ramblers to 17th, with no way to get in with a head-to-head over Weequahic at 16. If there are any residuals to be had that could change things, but its unlikely. We’ll have to see how Friday plays out to have a better idea.

SOUTH GROUP 3

Top Seeds: This one is real simple. Somerville (8-0) holds the top overall seed. Should they lose, but the six teams behind them all win – Hopewell Valley, Mainland Burlington Twp., Cedar Creek, Holmdel and Ocean City all win – it looks like the Pioneers still get the top seed. In that scenario, Hopewell Valley would still end up the No. 2 overall seed, and the top seed in South 5, with the Pioneers getting Central 5. Bottom line says lock this one in: The ‘Ville will be the overall No. 1 seed, and could host all the way up through the Group 3 semis.