Tag: UPR

October 20, 2024October 20, 2024 by Mike Pavlichko

UNOFFICIAL UPR Standings after Week 7

Cutoff Weekend is this coming weekend in New Jersey, the final week of the regular season for public schools. The playoffs will be officially seeded Sunday by the NJSIAA, but we have UNOFFICIAL UPR standings updated after Week 7 play below.

Please remember that ONLY Gridiron New Jersey calculates the official numbers, and they may have information about forfeits, disqualifications and other information we may not be privy to, particularly outside of our CJSR coverage area. Note also that we were unable to calculate current SI values for Newark Academy, Montclair-Kimberley and Morristown-Beard. None of those should affect standings much, if at all, as the only teams getting OSI points from them among public schools are Dunellen, Garfield, Wallington and Ferris, none of whom are in serious contention for a playoff spot.

North Group 5

South Group 5

North Group 4

South Group 4

North Group 3

South Group 3

North Group 2

South Group 2

North Group 1

South Group 1

October 12, 2024 by Mike Pavlichko

UNOFFICIAL Updated NJ Football Playoff Standings thru Thursday/Friday Week 6 games

With most of the Week 6 games in the books, and just one week of play before Cutoff Weekend arrives, we’re taking a look at the latest unofficial New Jersey UPR standings.

Our standings are based on scores reported to Gridiron New Jersey – the official NJ UPR calculator for the NJSIAA – as of 10 am Saturday, October 12. We make no guarantees of accuracy.

North Group 5

South Group 5

North Group 4

South Group 4

North Group 3

South Group 3

North Group 2

South Group 2

North Group 1

South Group 1

September 10, 2024 by Mike Pavlichko

Early, unofficial look at H.S. Football UPR Standings after Week One

While it is still very early in the season, and the numbers can fluctuate widely with only a couple of results in for most teams, Central Jersey Sports Radio is taking a look at the playoff picture around New Jersey High School football.

It’s way too early to provide any meaningful analysis just yet, so we’ll present you with our standings, which are unofficial. Gridiron New Jersey calculates the official NJSIAA UPR formula involving power points and OSI, and will publish weekly standings starting next week, after Week 2 action.

For now, here’s our look, supersection by supersection, after Week 1 play. Game results are captured each Monday from Gridiron New Jersey. Due to the voluminous nature of games played each week, we may not pick up on any errors or changes in reported game scores, which could affect the standings. In future weeks, we compare our calculations to Gridiron New Jersey to check for errors before publishing, so please be reminded the following standings are completely unofficial.

(Note: We also do not typically project non-public standings, since those sections are seeded by committees. Only public school sections are shown below.)

North Group 5

South Group 5

North Group 4

*Note: Ramapo’s record displays as 0-0 because they played an out-of-state opponent in Week 1, and such games do not count toward power points, OSI, UPR or record for qualification purposes.*

South Group 4

North Group 3

South Group 3

North Group 2

South Group 2

North Group 1

South Group 1

August 23, 2024August 22, 2024 by Mike Pavlichko

What would happen if NJSIAA dropped power points altogether? With one tweak: not much

As the NJSIAA continues to tweak the playoff formula year after year, New Jersey’s high school sports governing body has said it’s committed to power points. The question is: Why?

This coming school year, in all sports, the NJSIAA eliminated the group point component of power points. Traditionally, power points have three factors:

Teams get 6 “quality points” for a win, 3 for a tie, none for a loss.
Teams (used to) get “group points” based on the size of a school they beat (1 through 5 in football)
Teams get residuals: 3 for every win by an opponent they beat, 1 for every win by an opponent they lost to. (Ties make it a bit trickier.)

But now, the group points are out, which means other than the numbers, there’s no real difference between OSI and power points. Both give credit for a win – in OSI you get the full value of a team you beat, half for a loss and 75% for a tie – and both have a strength of schedule component; in power points, its residuals, while OSI itself is the strength factor.

So the NJSIAA has neutered power points in football, making it somewhat toothless. In addition, they moved the multiplier from power points to the OSI formula.

They also brought the values somewhat closer to reality. With power points, a loss to a mutliplier would gain a team more points than they could get by beating a large, undefeated public school. But with the move to OSI, beating a mutliplier gets you the same point value as a beating a public school or non-multiplier, while losing gets you anywhere from 70 to 80 percent of the OSI value, as opposed to 50 percent.

So, where’s the benefit of keeping power points.

We evaluated the 2022 playoff teams a year ago. Out of 160 public schools qualifying for the playoffs (non-publics are seeded by a committee with the metrics used only as a guide) only seven different teams would have made the playoffs. Generally, the teams moved very little.

We just got around to looking at the 2023 playoffs. And a move to OSI would be even better.

Only six different teams would have gotten into the top 16 out of 160 overall. The negative side of that is that five of the six would have beat teams with worse records.

Further, two of those newly-qualified teams were 2-7. Now, we’ve never liked the NJSIAA eliminating the .500 requirement. But, a simple increase in the minimum number of wins from two games against NJSIAA member schools to three would take care of that problem. In that case, a switch solely to OSI would net only three – yes, three – different teams in the playoffs than with the state’s UPR formula, with is made of 60 percent of a team’s OSI ranking, and 40 percent of a team’s power point ranking.

This year will be interesting to watch, with the elimination of group points and the multiplier being moved from power points to OSI, and with more realistic values. That could be the tipping point that gets OSI more in line with the UPR, so close that power points may essentially be worthless.

Many coaches still believe in power points, and the downside of OSI is that strength of schedule is based more on scores (read: performance) than wins and losses. One idea would be to add some sort of residual factor, based on wins, to the OSI formula.

For example, if Team A beat Team B with an OSI of 80 and a record of 6-2, they would get 80 for the win, and add 18 residuals (3 for every win by a team you beat). Losing to that team – which would now be 7-1) would get you 47 points: that’s 40 as half of 80 for the loss, and 7 for their seven wins.

Here’s a look at each supersection from the 2023 playoffs, and how they would have looked if the playoffs were seeded strictly by OSI – no residuals added, maybe we’ll check that another time – instead of power points:

North 5: The top five teams here would stay the same, with Passaic Tech followed by Phillipsburg, Union City, Watchung Hills and Montclair. P’burg and Montclair made sectional finals, while PCTI beat Union City in the North Group 5 semifinal. Paterson Eastside (3-5) would have climbed from 17 to 15 and made the playoffs, knocking out 16th-seed Bayonne (5-4). But they would be one of three 3-6 teams that made the playoffs either way, the other two being Clifton and Bridgewater-Raritan. Piscataway (5-4) would miss the playoffs either way, although they qould have qualified strictly on power points. Overall, only two of the top 17 teams moved more than two spots, and they only moved three places.

South 5: The top 16 remain the same either way, OSI or UPR. South 5 semifinalist Cherokee would remain No. 1, while Toms River North, the overall Group 5 champ, would have fallen two places to fourth. Does that sound right? Maybe, considering they finished as high as No. 2 in the UPR mainly based on playing two multipliers during the regular season: Red Bank Catholic and Donovan Catholic. The top four teams were the same, just in a slightly different order.

North 4: This is another supersection with little change. The top 3 wouldn’t have changed their order – North 4 champion Ramapo, sectional finalist Roxbury, and North 5 semifinalist Mount Olive. The other sectional finalist, Northern Highlands, would have flip-flopped with Ridge, jumping up to fourth. Overall, ten of the 16 teams didn’t budge with the change.

South 4: The top four teams would be the same, but while the top two would remain sectional finalist Millville and South 5 semifinalist Winslow Twp., seeds three and four would flip-flop, putting South 4 champ Mainland third and dropping Brick Memorial to fourth. The other sectional semifinalist was Long Branch, which made a nice run. They would drop two places from 10th to 12th. Overall, seven of the 16 remained unchanged, and no new teams made it; the top 16 was the same either way.

North 3: Summit would have dropped to the second seed overall, but they still would have been in the top two, meaning they still could have hosted a sectional final if they got that far. (They didn’t.) Old Tappan would flip-flop with them and be No. 1 overall; they made it to a sectional final. North 3 champ West Essex would hold at No. 8, while North 3 finalist West Morris would jump from 11 to 9. Passaic Valley, the other sectional semifinalist, drops one spot to 13th. This is one section where it doesn’t work out well, with Governor Livingston – which had a nice year at 6-3 – would get bounced using OSI. They made it at No. 16, but would fall all the way to 19th with OSI instead of UPR. With six wins, though, maybe they would have benefitted from moving residuals over to OSI? The new team that got in? Mendham, which was 4-5, not an egregious switch, to be fair. Only one three-win team qualified – Sparta, with a 3-5 record – but they would have made it either way.

South 3: Here’s one where a bad team would have made it over a good one, at least on the surface, based on wins and losses. Burlington Township (2-7) was 17th in the UPR standings, but would have made it at No. 13 going straight OSI. That would knock out 6-2 Hopewell Valley. But, if the NJSIAA raised the minimum win requirement to three (which we think is fair because it takes 3 wins to clinch a sectional title) Burlington Twp. would be out. Hopewell Valley still wouldn’t get in, but at least the others would be Ocean Twp. (3-5) and Nottingham (4-4). Otherwise, only one team in the Top 16 moved more than two places. South 3 champion Delsea would fall from No. 1 to No. 2 overall, but still would have been a top seed in their section and hosted their sectional final. South 3 semifinalist Camden would have improved is six-seed to No. 4. And sectional finalists Seneca would have dropped one place, while Cedar Creek would have held steady at seven.

North 2: The top seven teams all stayed the same, three sets of two teams flip-flopped, and overall eight stayed put in the switch to OSI. Top overall seed Caldwell didn’t move, North 2 champ Westwood held in second, sectional finalist Rutherford held third, and North 3 semifinalist Bernards stayed at No. 4. Lakeland, a sectional semifinalist, improved from 9th to 8th. One new team made the field, with 17th-place Becton (4-4) moving up to bounce out 16-seed Madison (3-5). Call that one a push.

South 2: The top four teams remain the same here, but with the middle two in a different order. Sectional finalist Point Pleasant Boro remained No. 1 overall, while sectional finalist Haddonfield and South 3 champion Rumson-Fair Haven flip-flopped to 2 and 3 respectively. South 3 runner-up Willingboro held fourth. Overall five of the top seven teams would have ended up in the same spot. One downside is that Spotswood would get left out at 8-1 – they were 16 in UPR and finished 18 in OSI – while Delran (2-7) would get in. But guess what? If the NJSIAA raised the minimum win threshold from two to three, that would eliminate Delran as well as Raritan (2-6) which got in at 14 in power points and 11 in OSI. Knocking them out would put in Mastery Charter of Camden (3-5, 18th in UPR) as well as Spotswood, in the same 16th slot they got with the UPR formula.

North 1: Remarkably, the top ten teams wouldn’t have moved an inch going with OSI instead of UPR. That includes sectional finalists Butler (No. 1 overall) and Hawthorne (4th overall). North 1 champ Mountain Lakes also would have held in 8th, while North 1 runner-up Shabazz would have dropped from 11 to 14. At the bottom, North Arlington (3-5, 17th in UPR) would have gotten in, and Glen Ridge (5-4) would have dropped from 15th to 17th and been bounced by OSI. But again, raising the win minimum to three would have eliminated Verona, which was 2-7, and made the playoffs on UPR at No. 16. OSI would bump them to 11, but again, we think two-win teams don’t belong in the playoffs. Take them out, and Glen Ridge is back in.

South 1: South 1 runner-up Woodstown would remain No. 1 overall with a switch from UPR to OSI, while sectional finalist Schalick would have jumped from 6th to 2nd. South 1 champion Glassboro would edge up from fifth to fourth, while sectional finalist Woodbury would move from seven to No. 2. This section actually had the most volatility. Only two teams would have had the same seeds, and the average move was 2.8 seeds, with two teams going up five spots and one – Penns Grove – moving up six places. (By the way, we looked purely at standings, not head-to-head tiebreakers.) The only downside here is that Paulsboro – somehow, since they’re 1-7 – would have jumped from 18 to 12, but they don’t even meet the current NJSIAA win requirement. This is where the rule works, and it would have kept them out of the playoffs, and everyone who got in on the UPR formula also would have gotten in with the OSI formula, including Dunellen, which fell to 17th on Paulsboro’s jump.

October 7, 2021October 7, 2021 by Mike Pavlichko

This Week in the Big Central – Episode 7: The Midway Point

Half the regular season is in the books in high school football across New Jersey, and we talk about it on Episode 7 of “This Week in the Big Central,” driven by Mark Montenero and his team at the world-famous Autoland!

Mike Pavlichko starts the show with a look at the playoff standings – interrupted by a mild rant on the state’s multiplier formula for power points.

Then, it’s a look at the Bellamy & Son Paving Player of the Week, South Brunswick’s Khiri Summers, who had three receiving touchdowns on offense, and two interceptions on defense, against Monroe.

Mike and Dom Savino wrap it up with a look at the Week 6 slate, including some playoff implications.

October 5, 2021October 5, 2021 by Mike Pavlichko

Top seeds in reach for several Big Central schools in Week 5 UPR standings

There are still three more weeks of play before Cutoff Weekend, but five Big Central Conference schools currently hold one of the top two positions in their respective supersections, meaning they would get top seeds in the playoffs if they started today.

In North 5, Union sits second with a UPR of 2.8, behind Clifton. Westfield is 5th with a UPR of 6.6, and has taken a fall with two straight losses.
South 5 finds undefeated Hillsborough in second with a UPR of 2.4. Old Bridge is 4th with a 3.8 UPR.
In North 4, Woodbridge sits in 2nd with a 2.6 UPR.
In North 3, undefeated Cranford is tops with a 1.6 UPR, ahead of River Dell (2.6).
In South 2, unbeaten Delaware Valley has a UPR of 3.4 and is in second.

The top two teams in each supersection become the top seeds in the eight team sections once they’re seeded. The top 16 teams in each supersection make the playoffs. Most supersections have about 30 teams, except for the North ones, which each have a few teams missing. That’s because their placement in certain conference divisions came with the stipulation that they be ineligible for the playoffs.

Continue reading →

September 27, 2021September 27, 2021 by Mike Pavlichko

Week Four UPR brings a few changes as wins help teams soar, losses make them plummet

It’s still early enough in the season that a win or loss can make teams fluctuate wildly in the playoff chase.

Some even took a fall despite a win.

Such was the case with Somerville, as we’ll explain in a moment.

Here’s our analysis of all the public school sections; we’re not looking at Non-Publics yet since those will be seeded by committees, using UPR as one of several key metrics. For each supersection, click the link in bold to see the actual official standings on Gridiron New Jersey’s website.

Continue reading →

September 26, 2021September 26, 2021 by Mike Pavlichko

Week 5 Hot Takes: First looks at Pioneers and Raiders, Aquinas impresses, Friday night playoff impacts coming soon

When you call a game every Friday night, it’s going to make it hard to see game action in person of every team in the Big Central. Make that downright impossible.

How else can you cover 60 teams? Why, you’d have to be Marcus Borden to do that!

But this week, we got our first looks of games that count involving New Providence and Hillsborough, and they certainly impressed.

In fact, both will be successful this year for much of the same reason: they’re more than just one player, and their coaches are getting creative. (What, you thought it was because both coaches are juniors, whose fathers were legendary high school coacahes in their own right? Hmmmm…. maybe that could have something to do with it.)

New Providence with and without Barth…

Let’s start with the Pioneers, where head coach Chet Parlavecchio Jr. got his team to rebound from a tough loss to Willingboro on short prep with a 40-8 win over Bound Brook.

In 2020, New Prov rode Charlie Barth, their big-time junior back, on offense, and also saw him contribute heavily on defense. He was the Central Jersey Sports Radio Two-Way Player of the Year, racking up 1,502 yards and 25 TDs (for a touchdown every 7.4 carries) while also leading the Big Central with 115 tackles, good for Top Ten in the state.

Against Bound Brook, Barth had two scores, sure. But sophomore runningback Ben Gullo had a touchdown run, QB Dean Licari had a TD run, and sophomore fullback Jack Verbaro had a touchdown catch in a goal-line situation from the five that on any given night would just scream having Barth pound it down the middle through a solid offensive line.

Oh, and he didn’t play a lick of defense in the game, according to Parlavecchio.

Keep him fresh, coach.

I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again: I think this is going to be a special year for New Providence.

Hillsborough looks – and is – the part…

Then there’s Hillsborough. This is the team that has come in with all the hype of the 1-2 combo of quarterback Jay Mazuera and wide receiver Thomas Amankwaa, friends since the age of eight, since they were both – yes – linemen with the Junior Raiders in town. (Mazuera says his dad was the coach and didn’t want to favor either of them.)

But the varsity Raiders are so much more than that combo.

Sure, Amankwaa – who just committed to Rutgers less than a week ago – got his touchdowns, but the two he had were on the ground, a product of head coach Kevin Carty Jr. doing all he can to get the talented, speedy, and elusive Amankwaa more touches.

Tommy on the jet sweep? Yes please.

But then they also have bruiser Tyler Michinard at runningback. And what did he do Saturday afternoon in a 31-21 win over Bridgewater-Raritan?

Michinard flipped the other half of the script and had a receiving touchdown, and a nifty one at that.

I’ve always had fun watching Carty’s teams, and more often than not he’s had some really good ones, but even he admits this is one of the better ones, and I tend to agree with him.

They’re going to be special, too.

But they’ll be up for a big challenge against Ridge this Friday night, trying to prepare for the Red Devils on a quick turnaround, since their game against B-R was on a Saturday, and they should have started prepping Friday since the game was originally scheduled for Thursday. But alas, Mother Nature.

Trojans looking good

I’ve made no secret of the fact that I’ve always enjoyed extremes in sports, good or bad. Teams scoring a lot of points. Going long stretches without. Winning streaks.

In this case, St. Thomas Aquinas was one of just two teams in the entire state heading into Saturday’s action to be 4-0, without allowing a single point. (The other is Cedar Creek.)

The resume shows a 6-0 season opening win against Woodstown at home, followed by a 43-0 win at Roselle, a 59-0 win at Spotswood, and a 46-0 home win this Friday night over Johnson.

That’s a 49.3 point per game scoring average in Big Central play.

And yet, Woodstown may have been the best win of the bunch, as they’re 3-1. Roselle is 2-1, Spotswood is winless and Johnson only has one win on the season. So you can take this however you take it.

But schedule out the window, I’ve always believed it’s not easy to shut a team out. Even a bad one. All it takes is one play to go wrong and there’s a touchdown.

A shutout – 48 minutes in high school football – requires intense focus, especially when you’re scoring 43, 59 and 46 points. It’s easy for a 16 or 17 year old to take his foot off the gas pedal.

The fact that Brian Meeney’s squad has not done that, in four games, makes it super impressive.

They’re on a historic run, too: 4-0 to start a season for the first time since 1989, and it’s their best record through the first four games since going 3-0-1 in the first four of 1992.

Are they top ten material? It’s certainly debatable. There might be 15 or more teams worthy of the Top Ten in their own right in this 60-team league.

But what they’re doing is something special. A good test comes Saturday at South River’s Bill Denny Stadium, and their biggest test will be in their regular season finale when they host 4-0 Del Val.

UPR coming soon(er)…

While Gridiron New Jersey released its first UPR playoff standings of the year last Sunday (they’re the official calculator for the NJSIAA) Central Jersey Sports Radio will soon be doing its own unofficial calculations.

We know you live for this stuff.

It’s still early; teams with only three games can make big jumps (or falls) with a win or loss in one week. So, we’ll start updating soon on Friday nights/Saturday mornings. Keep an eye out for it on cjsportsradio.com.

September 19, 2021 by Mike Pavlichko

Analysis: A closer look at the Week 3 UPR released by Gridiron New Jersey

Cutoff Weekend in New Jersey is still six weeks away, but it’s never too early to start looking at the chase for the postseason.

Gridiron New Jersey – the official calculator of all things playoffs – released its Week 3 UPR standings Sunday afternoon, and a quick look finds two Big Central teams – Westfield and Cranford – atop their respective supersections, with a third – Woodbridge – in the top two.

The top two teams in each supersection get a top seed in their section once they’re divided up, and guaranteed home field through the sectional championship game.

Regional Championships then will be played for one more season, until next year, when the NJSIAA will have football play down to overall group champs, a measure the state’s schools overwhelmingly voted in favor of this year.

Here’s a closer look:

Of the 54 Big Central teams that must qualify for the playoffs (the four non-publics in the league all qualify as all non-publics who want in will get in this year) 30 are on the right side of the line, in the top 16 in their supersection.

North Group 5

Westfield leads the pack right now with a 2-0 mark, ahead of Clifton and Passaic Tech. Union is 7th at 2-1, with Phillipsburg 9th, and Bridgewater-Raritan 10th. Elizabeth is 13th.

Winless Watchung Hills, Plainfield, JP Stevens and Piscataway are nowhere near the cutoff. But it’s still early, so a win can give a team a huge boost, especially against better competition.

South Group 5

Hillsborough is the highest Big Central team at No. 5, followed by Old Bridge, North Brunswick and undefeated 3-0 Monroe at seven though nine. East Brunswick at 2-1 is 11th, with New Brunswick at 13, and Edison 14th.

The Raiders play a tough schedule, so I’d anticipate that if they keep winning, they’ll move up and challenge for a top-seed. Thursday’s game at Bridgewater Raritan (CJSR, 7 pm) will be key to that.

North Group 4

Undefeated 4-0 Woodbridge is second in the standings here, right behind 3-0 Northern Highlands. The Barrons had a little to prove after losing Ali Lee, Jr., and Anthony Santino, but they’ve answered the bell so far. The Highlanders, though, have a hefty OSI at 77.69, with Woodbridge at 68.78. With North Hunterdon and Cranford coming up in two of the next three games, those will be critical to keep pace and/or gain ground.

But again, the Barrons at least would have home field through the sectional finals should they finish second in the supersection, so not all is lost.

Ridge’s win over Bridgewater Friday helps put them 5th, followed by Linden at 7, Colonia at 10, Sayreville 13th (thanks to a big win over No. 1 North Brunswick Friday night) and Scotch Plains at 15th. North Hunterdon is knocking on the door in 17th.

North Group 3

Cranford at 2-0 leads the pack here, ahead by just over 5 UPR points of Montville and Nutley, with 2-1 Summit – the team Cranford just beat this weekend – in fourth. A Hilltoppers win, and they might be flip-flopped right now.

Warren Hills checks in 8th, while 1-2 North Plainfield is on the other side of the peephole in 17th.

South Group 3

Somerville always struggles here. Not on the field, or in the playoffs, but to get that top seed. Though they do have one loss (to Northern Highlands, not a bad one) they sit in 5th behind Rumson, Delsea, Cedar Creek (all undefeated) and Woodrow Wilson – which they lost to in the South 3 finals in 2019.

To have a shot at one of the top seeds, the Pioneers likely have to win out, or have the teams above them trip.

South Plainfield checks in at 18.

South Group 2

Raritan, Pt. Pleasant Boro and Camden lead the pack here, with two BCC teams – Delaware Valley and Bernards – in fourth and fifth, respectively.

Hillside checks in 12th, and then two teams who square off Friday night are 14th and 16th: Bound Brook and New Providence. The winner will get a big boost; the loser will have dropped two straight and most likely be on the outside looking in.

South River checks in 18th, and with a week schedule and a 2-1 record, might very well have to win out to qualify.

Remember, undefeated teams qualify no matter what, but the Rams already have a loss. Bottom line: there’s little margin for error with Rich Marchesi’s squad due to their schedule.

North Group 1

Brearley is the only team in the hunt here at 2-0, standing in 10th. Hasbrouck Heights leads the supersection.

South Group 1

Despite a 1-2 record, but thanks to good competition, Middlesex is in 12th in a supersection led by deep south teams like Woodbury, Salem, Audubon, Paulsboro, Gloucester City and Penns Grove.

(Do the Blue Jays really belong in this section?)

You have to go to all the way to No. 7 to get to a remotely “Centrral Jersey” team in Shore Regional from Monmouth County.

Manville checks in at 16, with the Mustangs owners of a 2-0 record.

Non-Publics

This year, the NJSIAA pared the non-public sections down to two: A and B. A has the larger schools, and B has the smaller ones. The local teams are split with Pingry (not in the BCC) and St. Joe’s of Metuchen in A; Immaculata (not in the BCC) and St. Thomas Aquinas are in B.

These sections will be seeded by committee, using the UPR as one of several factors. Due to the human element, we won’t be projecting matchups throughout the year, but as of now, Pingry is 13th out of 16 teams in Non-Public A, while the Falcons are last.

In Non-Public B, Immaculata is 4th our of 16, while St. Thomas Aquinas is right behind in 5th

What does it all mean?

Not a lot yet. The best teams will be near the top, those that likely won’t contend are well out of the mix already, with a few exceptions of teams that could make a dent.

But the bottom line is, it’s so early. For OSI, which is an average, three games doesn’t say a lot. Give it another two weeks before hitting the panic button, or going into cruise control. A lot can happen – and will – between now and Cutoff Weekend.