Tag: playoffs

by Mike Pavlichko

Residuals at a premium this week as most NJ Football teams reach seven-game limit

All year long, football coaches in New Jersey watch the scoreboard, especially late in the season, to see how their opponents fared, and whether they’ll get major residual points down the line.

While the traditional power points system no longer uses group size for points, they still include quality points – six for a win, three for a tie, none for a loss – as well as residuals, a “strength of schedule” factor based on how many wins a team has.

For every opponent you beat, you get three points for each win they have. For every opponent you lost to, you get one point for each win by that team.

But late in the season, those points are increasingly hard to come by.

That’s because the NJSIAA has set limits on residuals to an opponents’ first seven games. The reasoning is that not all opponents may play eight or nine games. With seven the minimum for playoff qualification (or else a team’s power points and OSI are divided by seven regardless to get their average) the state says residuals are capped at an opponents first seven games, and they can get a maximum of 18.

How does that work?

Say you beat a team that is 5-2 at the moment. You would get 15 residuals, three for each win. But if that team wins this week or next week, you would get none – that team has played its seven games already. So, even if they finish 7-2, 15 residuals is the max.

Likewise, say that team is 7-0 through its first seven games. The NJSIAA caps residuals at 18, so you would get just 18 residual points. This helps level the playing field if one team has opponents who only play seven or eight games, and another plays opponents who have nine.

What’s important to remember is all of your team’s games count, you’re just capped at the amount of residuals you can get.

That said, the vast majority of teams in New Jersey have reached the seven-game limit, with the greatest percentage still able to give residuals in the Super Football Conference.

For those coaches and fans doing their own calculations, here are the teams – organized alphabetically by league – who have not yet reached the seven-game limit, for whom residuals are still up for grabs this week. (Note: Teams in the SFC Ivy Divisions aren’t included here, as they are playoff-ineligible and not permitted to play playoff-eligible teams.)

  • Big Central Conference: Carteret, Dayton, Dunellen, Highland Park, Hillside, Johnson, New Providence, North Plainfield, Phillipsburg, Ridge, Roselle, Roselle Park, Scotch Plains-Fanwood, South Hunterdon, St. Joseph-Metuchen
  • Shore Conference: Asbury Park, Holmdel, Keansburg, Manasquan, Middletown North, Middletown South, New Egypt, Pt. Pleasant Boro, Raritan, Red Bank, Rumson-Fair Haven, Shore, Wall
  • West Jersey Football League: Atlantic Tech, Audubon, Bishop Eustace, Bordentown, Buena, Gloucester Catholic, Gloucester City, Haddon Twp., Haddonfield, Hamilton, Holy Spirit, KIPP Cooper Norcross, Lindenwold, Mastery HS of Camden, Millville, Paul VI, Pemberton, St. Augustine, St. Joseph-Hammonton, Steinert, Vineland
  • Super Football Conference: Barringer, Boonton, Caldwell, Chatham, Clifton, Columbia, Dwight Morrow, East Orange, Glen Ridge, Hackensack, Paterson Kennedy, Lincoln, Madison, Montville, Morris Catholic, Mount Olive, Mountain Lakes, Newark Collegiate, Newton, Northern Highlands, Old Tappan, Pascack Hills, Pascack Valley, Pequannock, Ramapo, Ramsey, Ridgewood, Seton Hall Prep, Shabazz, Snyder, St. Joseph-Montvale, St. Peter’s Prep, Sussex Tech, Teaneck, Union City, Weequahic, West Essex
  • NJIC: Butler, Cresskill, Glen Rock, Manchester Regional, North Arlington, Palisades Park, Park Ridge, Pompton Lakes, Rutherford, Secaucus, Weehawken
  • Independent: Pingry

Next week, SI values are locked in for Cutoff Weekend. While SI is still calculated all through Thanksgiving and the playoffs, for qualification purposes, SI values will be locked in at what they are after this week, Week 7 of play, in order to make the seeding process easier.

by Mike Pavlichko

Bill Born, creator of the Born Power Index, once used in NJSIAA playoff formula, has died

In 2018, the NJSIAA made its biggest overhaul of the playoff formula since the advent of power points in 1975, the second year of the playoff era. The “NJ UPR” system kept traditional power points, but added a new metric called the Born Power Index, which ranted teams based on scores relative to each team’s rankings.

Though it was only used for one season, the NJSIAA made its own variant called Strength Index in 2019 and flipped it around, using the Opponent Strength Index as its additional metric, which it still does today.

But the Born Power Index continued online, as it had for many years, a system invented nearly 60 years ago. Bill Born, the formula’s creator, did rankings for New Jersey and Pennsylvania high school basketball and football, as well as college football

A black and white document displaying Bill Born's Power Index, listing sports teams with their ratings, favorites, spreads, and underdogs.
A Born Power Index ranking from a North Jersey newspaper, circa 1979. (Source: Newspapers.com)

One Big Central Conference coach mentioned to CJSR this weekend that he noticed the site hadn’t been updated this year. As it turns out, William Born passed away at the age of 83 back on April 6th of this year.

According to his obituary, which can be found online, William E. Born was born in McKeesport, PA, on October 1, 1941, grew up in Scotch Plains, and moved to Berkeley Heights in 1973. A William Paterson alum, he played basketball and baseball there, even playing minor league baseball before beginning a long career as a math teacher, where – always obsessed with numbers – he developed the Born Power Index.

In a 2018 interview with Mike Pavlichko on WCTC’s now-defunct “Football USA” program, Born said his father once told him he could reasonably project the outcome of games by using simple math, including scores, and how teams fared against each other.

Click here to listen to Mike Pavlichko’s interview with Bill Born, creator of the Born Power Index, on WCTC’s “Football USA” show from September 1, 2018.

Born said he had been asked by an area basketball league to assist in seeding their tournament, and his rankings were used as a guide. Several newspapers printed his rankings on a weekly basis.

Though the NJSIAA developed a similar formula of its own, the change was prompted by an outcry when it was found that, the way the rankings were used, teams could increase their chances of getting higher seeds by beating teams by more points.

But the system itself was not the issue; in fact, it may even be more accurate than the current OSI formula. It was the implementation that didn’t work. Had the NJSIAA turned it around and used the Born Power Index value of a team’s opponents, rather then a team’s own value, we might still be using it in 2025.

Born had said the “genius” for the formula was that it took all kinds of factors into account, including weather, injuries and field conditions. While there was no numerical value assigned to any of those factors, he believed all of those things factored into the score.

If a star player was hurt, that might be reflected in the score. If rain kept a team from passing and kept a team from scoring, that would be reflected. A team that has speed might play slower on natural grass than turf, again affecting the score.

by Mike Pavlichko

Quickie playoff update: Key takeaways and how Saturday games affected Big Central teams

Gridiron New Jersey has come out with the official Week 6 playoff standings, and after Saturday’s games, there was still more shuffling going on.

And a little more could take place after Monday, with two West Jersey Football League games scheduled, at least one of which – Camden at Timber Creek – reportedly is related to cases of Coxsackie virus that started at Delsea and delayed their game with Millville from last weekend to this past Monday. Delsea had played Timber Creek the week before.

In all, six supersections will be affected one way or another by those games, including all five South Jersey groups and North Group 4, since Willingboro played Rahway, and the Chimeras’ new SI value will be factored into Rahway’s OSI.

All that aside, as of Sunday afternoon’s update, here’s a look at some of the notable changes in each supersection’s overall standings. We’ll have more detailed updates on scenarios for all the Big Central Conference teams once Monday’s two games are done.

North Group 1:

  • New Providence stayed at No. 2, but it’s UPR went from 2 to 2.6 as teams behind them jockeyed for OSI position. They lead Cedar Grove (3rd place) by one UPR point.

South Group 1:

  • Manville took sole possession of the 9th spot even though their UPR stayed the same, falling out of a tie with Audubon.
  • Bound Brook saw it’s UPR drop from 14.4 to 14.6 but moved up from 15th to 14th.
  • Highland Park fell back from 17 to 18 as they got jumped by KIPP Cooper Norcross with a win Saturday. They still might have a shot at the playoffs, but they would have to win at Manville (7-0) this Friday to have any hope.

North Group 2:

  • Bernards picked up some residuals and moved into a second-place tie with Shabazz. With no common opponents with Shabazz and no head-to-head, that would go to Bulldogs on the next tiebreaker, OSI. Shabazz is at 64.08, Bernards at 58.70.
  • Dayton – which played its way in with a huge win at previously-unbeaten Spotswood Friday night – dropped from 12 to 14 based mainly on residuals from other games.

South Group 2:

  • Saturday’s action knocked Johnson down three spots in a tight pack of teams, as the Crusaders fell from fifth to eighth.
  • Spotswood fell to 15 after it’s Friday night loss to Dayton, and now finds itself in a three-way tie with Pt. Pleasant Boro (2-4) and Overbrook (5-2) for 15th place. That tie likely won’t last, but the Chargers likely need to win out to make the playoffs.
  • Governor Livingston dropped one spot to 19th after Saturday’s action with two completely opposite teams the next two weeks: unbeaten Bernards this Friday, winless New Brunswick next week. They would have to win out to get in, most likely.

North Group 3:

  • Summit fell out of the top two, to third, after Saturday’s loss to Bernards, but they’re still in that race, just 0.8 UPR points behind second-place West Morris.

South Group 3:

  • Somerville stayed in fourth, but fell a bit further back in UPR, by 0.4 points, and the Pioneers are 1.4 UPR points behind second-place Cedar Creek, with Holmdel in between in third, 0.8 ahead of Somerville.

North Group 4:

  • While it surely was disappointing for Phillipsburg to see their unbeaten season come to an end, their loss at St. Joseph-Metuchen Saturday afternoon didn’t affect their standing. They remain in second, and their UPR remained the same, but Mount Olive is a bit close now, just one UPR point behind at a 2.6, with a 1.6 for the Stateliners.
  • Rahway edged up from 13 to 12 on residuals.
  • Watchung Hills fell from 16 to 19, getting jumped by Hackensack, Millburn and Garfield, all on residuals. But with home games the last two weeks against Elizabeth and Somerville, they still have a shot.

North Group 5:

  • Union edges in from 17 to 16 on residuals, jumping Montclair, but at 1-6 still has to get another win to become playoff eligible. They close with road games at Phillipsburg and Elizabeth.
  • Plainfield edged closer, going from 19 to 17, jumping Columbia and Montclair on residuals. The Cardinals close with two road games, at Somerville (this Friday on CJSR) and Linden. They might need a sweep to get in.

South Group 5:

  • Hillsborough dropped from ninth to a tie for 11th with Eastern on residuals, but they probably won’t drop in their section as both should be in the South while the Raiders would be in the North

by Mike Pavlichko

UNOFFICIAL Playoff Standings Update: Group 1

While most high school football teams across New Jersey played Friday night, still more have to play Saturday. But with much of Week 6 in the books, here’s a look at Central Jersey Sports Radio’s projections on updated playoff standings.

All our projections are unofficial and based on scores reported to Gridiron New Jersey – the official calculator of the NJSIAA’s UPR formula – with additional scores gathered from various media sources.

Please note, we have not performed any tiebreakers or top-down head-to-head comparisons, which is done on the final weekend within the field of 16, since future meetings could alter those adjustments. The top 16 teams in each supersection qualify for the playoffs. And while a minimum of two wins is needed, we’re not eliminating those teams yet either, as many teams still have two or three games remaining.

NORTH GROUP 1:

Table displaying the standings of North Group 1 high school football teams in New Jersey, including wins, losses, ties, and various performance averages.
  • New Providence beat Verona in a non-conference game Friday night, and now takes a bigger lead over third-place Kinnelon, expanding its UPR lead from 0.4 to 1.6 points. It’s looking good for the Pioneers, who close with Bound Brook next Friday and at Delaware Valley seven days later.
  • Then, it’s all the way down to Brearley, which fell from 17 to 18 after a victory over winless South River Friday night. And their UPR distance from the 16 seed grew as well.
  • Even though they’re a longshot, for what it’s worth, Roselle Park went from 23 to 22 with a win at Highland Park Friday night. They went from a 23.4 UPR, tied for 23rd with North Warren (which lost and fell back to 25), to 21.8, leaving them 5.4 from a playoff berth. It’s still a lot of ground to make up with JP Stevens next week, but all of a sudden, knocking off Spotswood on Cutoff Weekend doesn’t look so improbable. Stay tuned…
A table displaying the standings for North Group 1 high school football teams in New Jersey, including columns for wins, losses, ties, points average, opponent strength index average, UPR, Northing, UPR rank, and N rank.

SOUTH GROUP 1:

Table displaying the South Group 1 high school football standings, showing team names, wins, losses, ties, power points average, OSI, UPR, northing, UPR rank, and N rank.
  • The reward for a 62-7 Thursday night win for Manville over winless Dunellen was a fall from eighth to 10, despite being 7-0 for the first time since they finished 9-0 in 1968, according to the team’s Twitter account. But with Highland Park and Bound Brook awaiting, they still could get a first round home game, but they might also need some help to do it.
  • Bound Brook rises one spot to 15 overall after a 38-28 win over Middlesex, which drops the Blue Jays from 20-22 and makes them a real long shot for the postseason. But the Crusaders are headed in the right direction at 5-2. Their next two opponents are both unbeaten: at New Providence next Friday, at home to Manville for the Freedom Silver Division title a week later.
  • A loss by Highland Park Friday night to Roselle Park has them out of the top 16 for now at No. 17. But they’re one OSI jump away from tying Clayton for 16th. It ain’t over ’til it’s over.
A table displaying the standings of high school football teams in Central and South Group 1, including win-loss records, power points averages, and UPR rankings.

by Mike Pavlichko

UNOFFICIAL Playoff Standings Update: Group 2

While most high school football teams across New Jersey played Friday night, still more have to play Saturday. But with much of Week 6 in the books, here’s a look at Central Jersey Sports Radio’s projections on updated playoff standings.

All our projections are unofficial and based on scores reported to Gridiron New Jersey – the official calculator of the NJSIAA’s UPR formula – with additional scores gathered from various media sources.

Please note, we have not performed any tiebreakers or top-down head-to-head comparisons, which is done on the final weekend within the field of 16, since future meetings could alter those adjustments. The top 16 teams in each supersection qualify for the playoffs. And while a minimum of two wins is needed, we’re not eliminating those teams yet either, as many teams still have two or three games remaining.

NORTH GROUP 2:

Table displaying high school football team rankings, including team names, wins, losses, ties, and performance metrics for North Group 2.
  • Bernards holds in third as Westwood and Shabazz won Friday night, while Hoboken’s win got them right behind the Mountaineers, who have a big game Saturday at Summit at 1 pm with major playoff implications for both teams.
  • Dayton, which picked up a huge win over previously-unbeaten Spotswood, shot up from 20th – four spots out of the playoffs – to 12. They needed that, with a game at Dunellen next week, which could see them drop a bit, but not enough to bounce out to the wrong side of the bubble. And with Brearley winning four straight after an 0-3 start – and 15 consecutive losses dating back to the last two games of 2023 – all of a sudden, that doesn’t look like a bad win anymore either, if the Bulldogs can get it.
A table displaying football standings for North Group 1 and North Group 2, including columns for wins, losses, ties, points average, OSI average, UPR, Northing, UPR rank, and N rank.

SOUTH GROUP 2:

A table showing the standings for the South Group 2 high school football teams, listing their wins (W), losses (L), ties (T), power points average (PP AVG), opponent strength index average (OSI AVG), UPR, northing, UPR rank, and N rank.
  • The highest-rated team here is A.L. Johnson, which beat Delaware Valley, 21-19, Friday night. They ride from eight to five overall.
  • Spotswood dropped three spots to 15th, but if it weren’t for Dayton having a nice year, it could have been worse. The Bears being 5-1 now is a big help. The Chargers close at South Hunterdon, where even a win could drop them a bit, but close with a highly-respectable Roselle Park, which is 4-2 after a win over Highland Park Friday night.
  • Voorhees visits Governor Livingston Saturday at 1 pm, but the deserving Vikings jumped from 17th to 14th, thanks to some help, including the Spotswood loss, which wasn’t exactly on everyone’s bingo card, considering how they’d dominated this season. The Highlanders held in 18th, and we’re not sure if the teams could flip if GL wins this matchup, but they could certainly use it. And Voorhees may not be done climbing in Week 6.
  • The loss by Delaware Valley to A.L. Johnson effectively ended the Terriers hopes at a playoff berth, and Hillside is a longshot at 21, but they have some good teams down the stretch – starting with a 2 pm home game Saturday against Carteret – such that a strong finish could make it much closer. A loss would probably put them in Del Val’s shoes.
A table displaying the playoff standings for Central and South Group 2 high school football teams in New Jersey, including team names, wins, losses, ties, and rankings.

by Mike Pavlichko

UNOFFICIAL Playoff Standings Update: Group 3

While most high school football teams across New Jersey played Friday night, still more have to play Saturday. But with much of Week 6 in the books, here’s a look at Central Jersey Sports Radio’s projections on updated playoff standings.

All our projections are unofficial and based on scores reported to Gridiron New Jersey – the official calculator of the NJSIAA’s UPR formula – with additional scores gathered from various media sources.

Please note, we have not performed any tiebreakers or top-down head-to-head comparisons, which is done on the final weekend within the field of 16, since future meetings could alter those adjustments. The top 16 teams in each supersection qualify for the playoffs. And while a minimum of two wins is needed, we’re not eliminating those teams yet either, as many teams still have two or three games remaining.

NORTH GROUP 3:

A table displaying high school football standings for North Group 3, including teams, wins, losses, ties, power points average (PP AVG), opponent strength index average (OSI AVG), updated playoff ranking (UPR), and rankings.
  • Note that the teams in red – Weequahic and West Side – are ineligible for the postseason per NJSIAA rule, after they each received several player disqualifications two weeks ago in their game against each other. That’s reflected in the sectional projections below.
  • Summit – which hosts Bernards Saturday afternoon at 1 pm – stayed in second despite a win by West Morris Friday night.
  • Cranford beat Scotch Plains-Fanwood Friday night – and now has won four of its last five, by the way, after an 0-2 start – but still held in 12th, even though they improved from an 11.6 to a 10.8 UPR. That just makes the pack ahead of them tighter.
  • South Plainfield snapped a three-game skid with a win at New Brunswick, but dropped to 19th. Their chances are slim, with a home matchup against winless South River next week that could hurt them, even with a win.
Table displaying high school football standings for North 1 and North 2, Group 3, including team names, wins, losses, ties, and various rankings.

SOUTH GROUP 3:

A table displaying the standings of high school football teams in South Group 3, including columns for wins, losses, ties, points average, and rankings.
  • The only Big Central team here, Somerville dropped from second to fourth after a 43-14 road win at North Hunterdon, which is just 1-6. But the Pioneers get better teams the next two weeks: Friday vs. Plainfield (on CJSR) and Friday of Cutoff Weekend at Watchung Hills.
A table displaying the standings and statistics for high school football teams in the Central Group 3 and South Group 3 divisions, including Win-Loss records, Average Points Per Game, and UPR rankings.

by Mike Pavlichko

UNOFFICIAL Playoff Standings Update: Group 4

While most high school football teams across New Jersey played Friday night, still more have to play Saturday. But with much of Week 6 in the books, here’s a look at Central Jersey Sports Radio’s projections on updated playoff standings.

All our projections are unofficial and based on scores reported to Gridiron New Jersey – the official calculator of the NJSIAA’s UPR formula – with additional scores gathered from various media sources.

Please note, we have not performed any tiebreakers or top-down head-to-head comparisons, which is done on the final weekend within the field of 16, since future meetings could alter those adjustments. The top 16 teams in each supersection qualify for the playoffs. And while a minimum of two wins is needed, we’re not eliminating those teams yet either, as many teams still have two or three games remaining.

NORTH GROUP 4:

Table displaying standings for North Group 4 high school football teams, including wins, losses, ties, and various statistical averages.
  • No change for Phillipsburg, which plays Saturday at St. Joseph-Metuchen at 1 pm on Central Jersey Sports Radio. (Click here to listen.) Northern Highlands has a bye this week. The Stateliners shoudl jump them with a win, but even with a loss, perhaps, since the Falcons are a multiplier, giving them 75% of the SI value rather than half.
  • Montgomery fell to Woodbridge Friday night, and that dropped the Cougars from fourth to eighth overall, while the Barrons went up two spots to 6th place.
  • Ridge beat Hunterdon Central Friday, but still fell one spot to seven as Woodbridge passed them.
  • Colonia held in 11th after a win over Plainfield Friday night.
  • Westfield beat winless North Brunswick Friday night, but it didn’t drop them in the standings, nor did it help; they hold at 14.
  • Despite a home loss to Rahway, Watchung Hills stays at 16, and their UPR holds at 16.2 as well. But the Indians shot up from 19 to 13 with the win.
  • JFK remains a longshot, despite a 5-2 record. They held at 21 after beating North Plainfield Friday night.
A table displaying high school football standings for North 1, Group 4 and North 2, Group 4 in New Jersey, including columns for wins, losses, ties, points per average (PP AVG), opponent strength index average (OSI AVG), UPR, and rankings.

SOUTH GROUP 4:

Table showing the standings for South Group 4 high school football teams in New Jersey, including wins, losses, and ranking details.
  • Brick Memorial moved into one of the top two spots here, overtaking Manalapan and Red Bank after a win Friday night over Brick Twp. Red Bank visits Manasquan Saturday, while Manalapan lost at Wall.
A table displaying the standings for Central Group 4 and South Group 4 high school football teams in New Jersey, including win-loss records, points averages, and rankings.
by Mike Pavlichko

UNOFFICIAL Playoff Standings Update: Group 5

While most high school football teams across New Jersey played Friday night, still more have to play Saturday. But with much of Week 6 in the books, here’s a look at Central Jersey Sports Radio’s projections on updated playoff standings.

All our projections are unofficial and based on scores reported to Gridiron New Jersey – the official calculator of the NJSIAA’s UPR formula – with additional scores gathered from various media sources.

Please note, we have not performed any tiebreakers or top-down head-to-head comparisons, which is done on the final weekend within the field of 16, since future meetings could alter those adjustments. The top 16 teams in each supersection qualify for the playoffs. And while a minimum of two wins is needed, we’re not eliminating those teams yet either, as many teams still have two or three games remaining.

NORTH GROUP 5:

A table displaying the standings for North Group 5 high school football teams in New Jersey, including columns for wins, losses, ties, power points average, opposing strength index average, UPR, northing, UPR rank, and N rank.
  • Bridgewater-Raritan holds on to the top spot, despite a loss Friday night at Hillsborough. West Orange moved into the two-spot over Piscataway – which beat one-win East Brunswick Friday night and, as a result, drops to third – but remains at a 2.8 UPR, with the Chiefs down to a 4.2, so the Panthers get a little more breathing room at the top.
  • Elizabeth won Friday night, and moves up two spots from 8th to 6th.
  • Despite a victory by Linden Friday night over winless Perth Amboy, the Tigers remain in 14th, but their UPR drops to 14.6.
  • Union also won Friday night, for the first time this season, beating South Brunswick. Low-win teams stand to gain more ground with a win than higher teams do, so they jumped from 19 to a 16th-place tie with Montclair with a 16.2 UPR. The Farmers still need to win one more game to become playoff eligible.
  • Plainfield, which lost Friday night to Colonia, fell from 17 to 19, but has a big game at Somerville next Friday on Central Jersey Sports Radio at 6:30 pm.
A table displaying the standings and statistics for high school football teams in North Group 5, including columns for Wins, Losses, Ties, and various performance metrics.

Note that with Piscataway dropping out of the top two, West Orange moves in, and since they are more North than the Bridgewater-Raritan, it moves the Panthers down into North 2 – a more southern section – with the rest of the Big Central teams.

SOUTH GROUP 5:

A table displaying high school football team standings for South Group 5 in New Jersey, showing Teams, Wins, Losses, Ties, Points Per Game, OSI Average, UPR, Northing, UPR Rank, and N Rank.
  • Sayreville‘s win over Franklin helped boost the Bombers closer to a top-two seed, and a No. 1 seed in the sectionals. The move from fourth to third and drop their UPR from 4.2 to a 2.4. They could be in the drivers’ seat with a Cutoff Weekend game against St. Thomas Aquinas looming. That would either be a huge win, or a loss to a multiplier.
  • Old Bridge moves from 7th to 6th with a win over Monroe, shaving 0.4 points off its UPR.
  • Hillsborough won its second straight, beating Bridgewater-Raritan – still the top seed in North 5 – and in the process, skyrockets from 15 all the way up to 9th place, going from a 14.2 to a 10.4 UPR.
  • Hunterdon Central didn’t see too much damage from a loss to Ridge Friday, though they fell to 17th. But they’re 1.4 UPR out of a playoff spot, which isn’t too tall of an order.
  • Despite a loss to Sayreville Friday night, Franklin goes from 19 to 18, thanks to the Bombers’ strong SI. The Warriors have a worse UPR, but the standings also depend on what teams around them do, and Jackson Township’s loss hurt them more, dropping them behind Franklin.
A table displaying high school football standings for Central and South Group 5 in New Jersey, including columns for wins, losses, ties, playoff average, overall strength index average, UPR, northing, UPR rank, and N rank.
by Mike Pavlichko

Big Central Playoff implications for Week 6: Here’s how Friday night’s matchups matter

Each Friday through Cutoff Weekend – this week and the next two – we’ll have a look what effects each game in the Big Central Conference will have on the playoff races.

Some teams are looking to hold on to top seeds, with six currently in one of the top two positions in each supersection. Others are looking to gain ground and maybe earn a home game, while some are just fighting to get in – or stay in – the top 16.

And with this year’s seeding procedure being different – assigning teams to sections based on geography rather than snaking the brackets – a move up in the top 16 doesn’t necessarily mean moving up the same once assigned into a section.

That’s perhaps the biggest difference with the new tweak: once the teams are sorted geographically, you could have the fifth place team at 12 overall, and the fourth place team at ninth, which means the fifth place team would have to jump several in the overall standings to climb just one spot in the section. Inotherwords, a top eight finish in the supersection doesn’t necessarily guarantee you a first round home game.

Here’s a look at Friday’s schedule. We’re going to have a unofficial playoff standings update late tonight/early tomorrow morning, and will take a look at Saturday’s playoff implications based on Friday’s results in time for Saturday’s games.

  • No. 2 Woodbridge at No. 8 Montgomery, 7 pm: We think the Barrons have a very good shot at a first round home game, sitting fourth in North 2, with Colonia right behind them in fifth, but 11th overall in UPR, three full places behind them. It’s very likely a win could wrap it up. Should Montgomery win, it would be interesting to see how much they jump up from fourth overall. Could they challenge Phillipsburg for the top seed? Probably not, but a win could also put some more distance between them and third-seed Ridge, two spots behind in overall UPR.
  • No. 3 St. Thomas Aquinas at Edison, 7 pm: We generally don’t track the non-public playoff chase like we do the publics, since the NJSIAA seeds them by committee, only using UPR, OSI and power points as a guide. Suffice it to say, while the Trojans last year got their first home playoff game in decades, at 4-2 this year, that could be a struggle, but it always depends on what teams opt-out here and how it affects the number of teams participating, and who gets a bye. Currently, the Trojans are 4-2 and sitting in 8th place in Non-Public B. For Edison, despite being 1-5, the Eagles may have a chance if they can finish some games. A heavy underdog to Aquinas, they will at worst get the 75% multiplier on the OSI side this week, and if they could close out with wins at South Brunswick next week at Paterson Eastside on the Fridday of Cutoff Weekend? Sprinkle in some scoreboard watching and a climb of five spots into the playoff picture might not be out of the realm of possibility. We’ll know much more after this week.
  • No. 5 Somerville at North Hunterdon, 7 pm: This one’s an easy one. Somerville sits second overall in South 3, but just 0.4 UPR points ahead of Holmdel (3-2). So the Pioneers can’t afford to slip anywhere. But even win could hurt them a bit since the Lions are just 1-5. Somerville might need to win out to hang on to a top seed, but that’s not a huge ask.

  • No. 7 Sayreville at Franklin, 6 pm: The Bombers may sit second right now in Central Jersey Group 5, but they’re fourth overall in UPR, 2.0 points behind Southern. If they can dethrone them, Washington Twp. moves down to the South top seed, while the Bombers would get the top. That’s possible if they win out, but at least they have to beat Franklin this week and Montgomery at home the next. The Cougars (5-1) are a big power point game and their finale is against St. Thomas Aquinas, a multiplier. This might be in the Bombers’ hands. As for Franklin, despite a 3-3 mark, they’re 18th in the South 5 supersection, 2.6 out of a playoff spot. A loss likely leaves them without a shot, as the next two weeks have Monroe and North Brunswick, a combined 0-11, which won’t help them much. Call this a must-win for the Warriors, or as close to a must-win as you can get.
  • East Brunswick at No. 10(t) Piscataway, 6 pm: The Chiefs should rebound from last week’s loss to rival Sayreville as the 1-5 Bears come to town. Despite the loss, West Orange losing to Phillipsburg helped the Chiefs actually move up into one of the top two seeds, although the lead is slim, just 0.2 UPR points. And while beating the Bears won’t do Piscataway any favors, West Orange has Montclair (0-6) this weekend, so maybe nothing will change after all?
  • Monroe at No. 10(t) Old Bridge, 6 pm: The Knights sit seventh overall in the supersection, and fourth in Central Group 5, with the next team behind them in fifth (Howell, 3-3) actually in 11th overall in the supersection. So, we like to say Old Bridge has some “protection” here, even if a win over a 1-5 opponent knocks them down a bit overall.
  • Colonia at Plainfield, 6 pm: As described above, almost five full UPR points behind Woodbridge, it would be hard for the Patriots to jump from 5th in North 2 Group 4 to fourth to earn a home game, especially since Woodbridge has the head-to-head over them, but they’d like to win and keep the teams behind them at bay. But honestly, we could be staring at a first round rematch with the Barrons, who won the first meeting 34-21. (Ironically, Woodbridge also opened the playoffs last year with a team they beat in the regular season, Watchung Hills.) For Plainfield, which sits in 17th overall in the supersection, they need a win to make up some ground.
  • Bridgewater-Raritan at Hillsborough, 6 pm: The Panthers at 5-1 are looking good right now, and with Piscataway and West Orange behind them overall and playing weaker opponents this week where they’re favored to win but still could lose points, they might be able to handle a loss and remain a top-seed for this week, a win could really help strengthen their position. After Hillsborough’s come-from-behind win last week over Westfield, the Raiders brought their season back from life support, but we’re not quite ready to discharge the patient yet. Hillsborough is at 15 overall. Could they survive a loss to Bridgewater? Probably. Want to chance it? Nope. And the Raiders finish with Piscataway home next week, then at Hunterdon Central on Cutoff Weekend. We think they need two of three down the stretch here.

  • Watchung Hills at Rahway, 6 pm: The Warriors face some solid teams down the stretch, including Somerville on Cutoff Weekend. Sitting 16th overall, Watchung Hills needs wins to stay in; we think two of three, any combination. Next week they’re at Elizabeth. Rahway sits in 19th, but only one full UPR point behind Watchung Hills. A win would go a long way for the Indians, and the winner gets the head-to-head tiebreaker, which could come into play here if the teams end up 16 and 17 overall.
  • Morristown at Elizabeth, 6 pm: As a pair of 2-4 teams go at it, Elizabeth sits fourth in North 2, Group 4, with Irvington just a spot back there AND overall, but it’s a 2.4 UPR point difference. Still, for the Minutemen: Just keep winning.
  • South Plainfield at New Brunswick, 6 pm: Even a win hurts South Plainfield a little bit here, currently 18th overall in North Group 3 and 2.6 UPR points behingd 16th place River Dell. But the alternative could cost them a spot, and this is a game a playoff-worthy team shouldn’t lose; New Brunswick has dropped 28 straight.
  • Westfield at North Brunswick, 6 pm: The Blue Devils should be a playoff team, but like South Plainfield, even a win over winless North Brunswick could dip them a little bit, depending what the teams around them do. Currently, Westfield (6th in North 2 Group 4, 14th overall) has Millburn and Watchung Hills directly behind them, tied for 15th.
  • South River at Brearley, 6 pm: The Bears – despite a 3-3 record – are a spot out of the top 16, by 0.8 UPR points behind Secaucus. With South River 0-6, they can’t afford a loss, and still could have ground to make up the next two weeks, with games at home against Metuchen (2-4), then at Dayton (4-1). We think all three are must-wins, and still, there are no guarantees.

  • Verona at New Providence, 6:30 pm: The Pioneers need a win to hang on – at least for now – to one of the top two spots, and the resulting No. 1 seed in North 2 Group 1. Verona is the 14th team in the supersection, and could even be a preview of a potential first round matchup, which would also be in Union County.
  • Bound Brook at Middlesex, 7 pm: The Crusaders are more worried about staying in the top 16 than positioning. They’ll need a win over Middlesex, even if they drop their last two, which will come at New Providence next week, and home to Manville the following week. Both are currently undefeated, which makes beating the Blue Jays even more urgent, although losses to tow unbeaten teams may not kill them, the Crusaders still might need a split down the stretch. But let’s see how this week shakes out first. On the other hand, Middlesex is in more dire need of a win, sitting at 2-4 and in 20th place. We’ll have a better idea of their chances after this weekend.
  • A.L. Johnson at Delaware Valley, 7 pm: The Crusaders sit third in Central 2, but all three teams behind them in the supersection are also right behind them in the section – and not by a lot. There’s Johnson at a 9.8 UPR, with Manasquan at 10, Bordentown 10.2 and Wall at 10.4 before even getting to Spotswood (6-0) with an 11.6 UPR. So, less than two points separate five teams, with no one from another section in between. Bottom line: To keep a home game, Johnson may need to win out. Del Val is a long shot, sitting in 22nd place at the moment. Let’s seed if they beat Johnson (4-1) how much they could get closer?
  • Perth Amboy at Linden, 7 pm: Sitting 14th in North Group 5, Linden a) needs at least one more win to be playoff-eligible, with two wins the minimum, and b) could even drop after a victory over winless Perth Amboy. But the alternative is worse.
  • Hunterdon Central at Ridge, 7 pm: It’s a battle every night in the American Silver Division, but this is a huge game for both Red Devil teams. For Central, they sit 16th in the South 5 supersection, even though they’re 4-2. They just need to keep winning, with some strong teams behind them like Bridgeton (4-2) and Franklin (3-3). Ridge is sixth in North Group 4, and third in the North 2 Group 4 section, with Woodbridge right behind them, but two back overall. Not sure if Ridge can get to Montgomery, but they might need to hold of Woodbridge, and a win would go a long way.

  • Scotch Plains-Fanwood at Cranford, 7 pm: This is one of the few games involving a team in the playoff chase that may not mean a lot, except for just jockeying for position. With a 12 UPR and a 3-3 record, we wouldn’t exactly call the Cougars a bubble team, but we wouldn’t say they’ve clinched yet either. And it’s unlikely they’ll be able to play their way into a first round home game either. They sit in 12th overall, sixth in North 1, Group 3. They’re five spots in the supersection out of a home game, and five spots in the playoffs on the other end. Kind of no-man’s land. But by all means, keep winning.
  • Roselle Park at Highland Park, 7 pm (CJSR): The Owls need a win here to make sure they stay in the playoffs, and a win against a 3-2 team would do that. Despite a 5-3 record at the Cutoff last year, Highland Park missed the playoffs. For the Panthers, despite the better record (the Owls are 2-3), they’re just 23rd in the North Group 1 supersection. Their biggest issue is two of their wins have come over South River and Dunellen, both winless schools, resulting in a lack of power points. Roselle Park has a massive mountain to climb to get to 16, but the bottom line is it can’t be done without a win Friday night.
  • Spotswood at Dayton, 7 pm: The Chargers are undefeated, but sit in 12th overall in the South 2 supersection. They should be in the playoffs, barring something drastically going wrong, but can they get a home game? There are no gaps between them and the teams in front of them in their section: Wall (11 overall in UPR), Bordentown (10), Manasquan (9) and even Johnson (8, see our example above). Dayton may be a long shot (even at 4-1) sitting in the 20th position in North Group 2, but they’re only three UPR points out, and win over undefeated Spotswood would be enormous. The Chargers have had records like this before late in the season, but opponents have said this year’s team is “different” – in a good way.
  • South Brunswick at Union, 7 pm: The Farmers are 0-6. That’s the bad news. The good news is they need two wins to qualify, and if they can get those, it might give them the boost they need to get in the playoffs. Winning two of three might get them in, but only winning one won’t. No time like the present right? After South Brunswick, they close at Phillipsburg and Elizabeth. You can do the math from here.

by Mike Pavlichko

Group 2 playoff chase: Just Bernards, Johnson and Spotswood in fields of 16, with Governor Livingston, Voorhees outside the bubble. Can the Highlanders and Vikings make it?

With a paucity of Group 2 teams in the Big Central Conference to begin with – something that has caused issues for some in the past – just two right now are in the field of 16 in either supersection: Bernards in North 2 and Spotswood in South 2.

Quite the contrast with Group 4, with has seven of the eight teams in the North 2 section from the Big Central Conference. That means we might be guaranteed a sectional champion there after the first round! But we digress.

A table displaying the standings of Group 2 teams in the North 1 and North 2 sections of the Big Central Conference, including wins, losses, ties, and various statistics.

In the northern half of the state, the only team even there is Bernards, and the Mountaineers have a shot at one of the two top seed. Either way, they’ll be in the North 2 section rather than North 1, with Bernards currently sitting in second. But they’re just 0.4 UPR points behind Shabazz, ground that’s not impossible to make up, especially if they can win Saturday at Summit (5-1). That’s no easy task, but there are a ton of power points up for grabs.

A table displaying the standings of Group 2 football teams, including their wins, losses, ties, power points average (PP AVG), opponent strength index average (OSI AVG), UPR, Northing, UPR rank, and N rank for teams in the Central and South sections.

Gone are the struggles Spotswood had with a one-loss team hoping they’d make the playoffs. The Chargers have been so good this year, 6-0, one of eight unbeaten teams left in the Big Central Conference. Their reward? They’re sitting 12th overall, sixth in the Central Group 2 section.

Bound Brook – which Spotswood beat last week – has helped their cause. After a couple of years of struggles, the Crusaders had four wins coming into that game. That was a strength-of-schedule killer before, but now it’s an asset.

And the better news for Spotswood is that the teams ahead of them in Central 2 are tightly packed. They won’t need to jump extra spaces. While the Chargers are 12th overall, 6th in their section, ahead of them is Wall (11th overall), Bordentown (10th) and Manasquan (9th) in fourth in the section. There’s a direct path to a home game, and if they win out, there’s a chance they could get one.

On the outside looking in right now are Voorhees and Governor Livingston, back to back. And they play each other this weekend in what could best be described as a pseudo play-in game. Each may be able to make it regardless, but if it comes down to one being 16th and the other 17th on Cutoff Weekend, the head-to-head could get that 17 in, or keep the 16 out.

For what it’s worth, Voorhees is significantly closer than the Highlanders, even though it’s one spot. They’re just 0.6 UPR points behind Pt. Pleasant Boro and Overbrook, who are tied for 15th, and the eight-seeds in their respective sections (Point in Central, Overbrook in South).

The Highlanders are 18th overall, 4.6 UPR points out. That’s a lot of ground to make up, and they’re 3-3. Having winless New Brunswick (UPR 21.6) on Cutoff Weekend won’t help. Assuming they win that game, which they should, they’ll still need to make up ground and – at the very least – probably need to beat either Voorhees at home this week or Bernards on the road next week to get in. It’s highly likely 1-2 in those three games won’t cut it.