Big Central Playoff implications for Week 6: Here’s how Friday night’s matchups matter

Each Friday through Cutoff Weekend – this week and the next two – we’ll have a look what effects each game in the Big Central Conference will have on the playoff races.

Some teams are looking to hold on to top seeds, with six currently in one of the top two positions in each supersection. Others are looking to gain ground and maybe earn a home game, while some are just fighting to get in – or stay in – the top 16.

And with this year’s seeding procedure being different – assigning teams to sections based on geography rather than snaking the brackets – a move up in the top 16 doesn’t necessarily mean moving up the same once assigned into a section.

That’s perhaps the biggest difference with the new tweak: once the teams are sorted geographically, you could have the fifth place team at 12 overall, and the fourth place team at ninth, which means the fifth place team would have to jump several in the overall standings to climb just one spot in the section. Inotherwords, a top eight finish in the supersection doesn’t necessarily guarantee you a first round home game.

Here’s a look at Friday’s schedule. We’re going to have a unofficial playoff standings update late tonight/early tomorrow morning, and will take a look at Saturday’s playoff implications based on Friday’s results in time for Saturday’s games.

• No. 2 Woodbridge at No. 8 Montgomery, 7 pm: We think the Barrons have a very good shot at a first round home game, sitting fourth in North 2, with Colonia right behind them in fifth, but 11th overall in UPR, three full places behind them. It’s very likely a win could wrap it up. Should Montgomery win, it would be interesting to see how much they jump up from fourth overall. Could they challenge Phillipsburg for the top seed? Probably not, but a win could also put some more distance between them and third-seed Ridge, two spots behind in overall UPR.
• No. 3 St. Thomas Aquinas at Edison, 7 pm: We generally don’t track the non-public playoff chase like we do the publics, since the NJSIAA seeds them by committee, only using UPR, OSI and power points as a guide. Suffice it to say, while the Trojans last year got their first home playoff game in decades, at 4-2 this year, that could be a struggle, but it always depends on what teams opt-out here and how it affects the number of teams participating, and who gets a bye. Currently, the Trojans are 4-2 and sitting in 8th place in Non-Public B. For Edison, despite being 1-5, the Eagles may have a chance if they can finish some games. A heavy underdog to Aquinas, they will at worst get the 75% multiplier on the OSI side this week, and if they could close out with wins at South Brunswick next week at Paterson Eastside on the Fridday of Cutoff Weekend? Sprinkle in some scoreboard watching and a climb of five spots into the playoff picture might not be out of the realm of possibility. We’ll know much more after this week.
• No. 5 Somerville at North Hunterdon, 7 pm: This one’s an easy one. Somerville sits second overall in South 3, but just 0.4 UPR points ahead of Holmdel (3-2). So the Pioneers can’t afford to slip anywhere. But even win could hurt them a bit since the Lions are just 1-5. Somerville might need to win out to hang on to a top seed, but that’s not a huge ask.

• No. 7 Sayreville at Franklin, 6 pm: The Bombers may sit second right now in Central Jersey Group 5, but they’re fourth overall in UPR, 2.0 points behind Southern. If they can dethrone them, Washington Twp. moves down to the South top seed, while the Bombers would get the top. That’s possible if they win out, but at least they have to beat Franklin this week and Montgomery at home the next. The Cougars (5-1) are a big power point game and their finale is against St. Thomas Aquinas, a multiplier. This might be in the Bombers’ hands. As for Franklin, despite a 3-3 mark, they’re 18th in the South 5 supersection, 2.6 out of a playoff spot. A loss likely leaves them without a shot, as the next two weeks have Monroe and North Brunswick, a combined 0-11, which won’t help them much. Call this a must-win for the Warriors, or as close to a must-win as you can get.
• East Brunswick at No. 10(t) Piscataway, 6 pm: The Chiefs should rebound from last week’s loss to rival Sayreville as the 1-5 Bears come to town. Despite the loss, West Orange losing to Phillipsburg helped the Chiefs actually move up into one of the top two seeds, although the lead is slim, just 0.2 UPR points. And while beating the Bears won’t do Piscataway any favors, West Orange has Montclair (0-6) this weekend, so maybe nothing will change after all?
• Monroe at No. 10(t) Old Bridge, 6 pm: The Knights sit seventh overall in the supersection, and fourth in Central Group 5, with the next team behind them in fifth (Howell, 3-3) actually in 11th overall in the supersection. So, we like to say Old Bridge has some “protection” here, even if a win over a 1-5 opponent knocks them down a bit overall.
• Colonia at Plainfield, 6 pm: As described above, almost five full UPR points behind Woodbridge, it would be hard for the Patriots to jump from 5th in North 2 Group 4 to fourth to earn a home game, especially since Woodbridge has the head-to-head over them, but they’d like to win and keep the teams behind them at bay. But honestly, we could be staring at a first round rematch with the Barrons, who won the first meeting 34-21. (Ironically, Woodbridge also opened the playoffs last year with a team they beat in the regular season, Watchung Hills.) For Plainfield, which sits in 17th overall in the supersection, they need a win to make up some ground.
• Bridgewater-Raritan at Hillsborough, 6 pm: The Panthers at 5-1 are looking good right now, and with Piscataway and West Orange behind them overall and playing weaker opponents this week where they’re favored to win but still could lose points, they might be able to handle a loss and remain a top-seed for this week, a win could really help strengthen their position. After Hillsborough’s come-from-behind win last week over Westfield, the Raiders brought their season back from life support, but we’re not quite ready to discharge the patient yet. Hillsborough is at 15 overall. Could they survive a loss to Bridgewater? Probably. Want to chance it? Nope. And the Raiders finish with Piscataway home next week, then at Hunterdon Central on Cutoff Weekend. We think they need two of three down the stretch here.

• Watchung Hills at Rahway, 6 pm: The Warriors face some solid teams down the stretch, including Somerville on Cutoff Weekend. Sitting 16th overall, Watchung Hills needs wins to stay in; we think two of three, any combination. Next week they’re at Elizabeth. Rahway sits in 19th, but only one full UPR point behind Watchung Hills. A win would go a long way for the Indians, and the winner gets the head-to-head tiebreaker, which could come into play here if the teams end up 16 and 17 overall.
• Morristown at Elizabeth, 6 pm: As a pair of 2-4 teams go at it, Elizabeth sits fourth in North 2, Group 4, with Irvington just a spot back there AND overall, but it’s a 2.4 UPR point difference. Still, for the Minutemen: Just keep winning.
• South Plainfield at New Brunswick, 6 pm: Even a win hurts South Plainfield a little bit here, currently 18th overall in North Group 3 and 2.6 UPR points behingd 16th place River Dell. But the alternative could cost them a spot, and this is a game a playoff-worthy team shouldn’t lose; New Brunswick has dropped 28 straight.
• Westfield at North Brunswick, 6 pm: The Blue Devils should be a playoff team, but like South Plainfield, even a win over winless North Brunswick could dip them a little bit, depending what the teams around them do. Currently, Westfield (6th in North 2 Group 4, 14th overall) has Millburn and Watchung Hills directly behind them, tied for 15th.
• South River at Brearley, 6 pm: The Bears – despite a 3-3 record – are a spot out of the top 16, by 0.8 UPR points behind Secaucus. With South River 0-6, they can’t afford a loss, and still could have ground to make up the next two weeks, with games at home against Metuchen (2-4), then at Dayton (4-1). We think all three are must-wins, and still, there are no guarantees.

• Verona at New Providence, 6:30 pm: The Pioneers need a win to hang on – at least for now – to one of the top two spots, and the resulting No. 1 seed in North 2 Group 1. Verona is the 14th team in the supersection, and could even be a preview of a potential first round matchup, which would also be in Union County.
• Bound Brook at Middlesex, 7 pm: The Crusaders are more worried about staying in the top 16 than positioning. They’ll need a win over Middlesex, even if they drop their last two, which will come at New Providence next week, and home to Manville the following week. Both are currently undefeated, which makes beating the Blue Jays even more urgent, although losses to tow unbeaten teams may not kill them, the Crusaders still might need a split down the stretch. But let’s see how this week shakes out first. On the other hand, Middlesex is in more dire need of a win, sitting at 2-4 and in 20th place. We’ll have a better idea of their chances after this weekend.
• A.L. Johnson at Delaware Valley, 7 pm: The Crusaders sit third in Central 2, but all three teams behind them in the supersection are also right behind them in the section – and not by a lot. There’s Johnson at a 9.8 UPR, with Manasquan at 10, Bordentown 10.2 and Wall at 10.4 before even getting to Spotswood (6-0) with an 11.6 UPR. So, less than two points separate five teams, with no one from another section in between. Bottom line: To keep a home game, Johnson may need to win out. Del Val is a long shot, sitting in 22nd place at the moment. Let’s seed if they beat Johnson (4-1) how much they could get closer?
• Perth Amboy at Linden, 7 pm: Sitting 14th in North Group 5, Linden a) needs at least one more win to be playoff-eligible, with two wins the minimum, and b) could even drop after a victory over winless Perth Amboy. But the alternative is worse.
• Hunterdon Central at Ridge, 7 pm: It’s a battle every night in the American Silver Division, but this is a huge game for both Red Devil teams. For Central, they sit 16th in the South 5 supersection, even though they’re 4-2. They just need to keep winning, with some strong teams behind them like Bridgeton (4-2) and Franklin (3-3). Ridge is sixth in North Group 4, and third in the North 2 Group 4 section, with Woodbridge right behind them, but two back overall. Not sure if Ridge can get to Montgomery, but they might need to hold of Woodbridge, and a win would go a long way.

• Scotch Plains-Fanwood at Cranford, 7 pm: This is one of the few games involving a team in the playoff chase that may not mean a lot, except for just jockeying for position. With a 12 UPR and a 3-3 record, we wouldn’t exactly call the Cougars a bubble team, but we wouldn’t say they’ve clinched yet either. And it’s unlikely they’ll be able to play their way into a first round home game either. They sit in 12th overall, sixth in North 1, Group 3. They’re five spots in the supersection out of a home game, and five spots in the playoffs on the other end. Kind of no-man’s land. But by all means, keep winning.
• Roselle Park at Highland Park, 7 pm (CJSR): The Owls need a win here to make sure they stay in the playoffs, and a win against a 3-2 team would do that. Despite a 5-3 record at the Cutoff last year, Highland Park missed the playoffs. For the Panthers, despite the better record (the Owls are 2-3), they’re just 23rd in the North Group 1 supersection. Their biggest issue is two of their wins have come over South River and Dunellen, both winless schools, resulting in a lack of power points. Roselle Park has a massive mountain to climb to get to 16, but the bottom line is it can’t be done without a win Friday night.
• Spotswood at Dayton, 7 pm: The Chargers are undefeated, but sit in 12th overall in the South 2 supersection. They should be in the playoffs, barring something drastically going wrong, but can they get a home game? There are no gaps between them and the teams in front of them in their section: Wall (11 overall in UPR), Bordentown (10), Manasquan (9) and even Johnson (8, see our example above). Dayton may be a long shot (even at 4-1) sitting in the 20th position in North Group 2, but they’re only three UPR points out, and win over undefeated Spotswood would be enormous. The Chargers have had records like this before late in the season, but opponents have said this year’s team is “different” – in a good way.
• South Brunswick at Union, 7 pm: The Farmers are 0-6. That’s the bad news. The good news is they need two wins to qualify, and if they can get those, it might give them the boost they need to get in the playoffs. Winning two of three might get them in, but only winning one won’t. No time like the present right? After South Brunswick, they close at Phillipsburg and Elizabeth. You can do the math from here.