Tag: Group 1

by Mike Pavlichko

Cutoff Weekend Preview: Group 1 UPR Analysis

As we head into Cutoff Weekend across New Jersey High School Football, Central Jersey Sports Radio will go supersection by supersection and take a look at where teams in the Big Central Conference stand.

Upwards of 30 of the 59 teams in the league appear to be in contention for a playoff spot. Some are very much assured a spot, others may be significant longshots.

We’re not going to get into matchups yet, as that can change a lot between now and the brackets. Instead, we’re focused on a few things:

  • Who’s got a shot at a top seed? The top two finishers in each supersection gets home field through the sectional finals, with the overall No. 1 getting home field for a potential group semifinal.
  • Who’s in the top four? Those teams get home field at least through sectional semifinals.
  • Who’s in the top eight? The first eight teams in each supersection get at least a first round home game.
  • Who’s in and who’s on the bubble? It all depends on how bunched up the teams are. Tenth place in one section could be considered clinched, or it could be just on the right side of the bubble.

Click here for a playoff primer, to answer all your questions about how the playoffs are actually seeded. Please note: the UPR standings in the above story may be off slightly as they were published after out-of-state Strength index numbers were updated Tuesday by Gridiron New Jersey. Those will affect seven public schools that played out-of-state teams in 2024.

On Saturday at 6 pm, Central Jersey Sports Radio will present its annual “Playoff Projection Show,” presented by the Higgins Speed Lab, sponsor of all our 2024 playoff coverage. Higgins Speed Lab is founded and owned by Kyle Higgins, the son of longtime Piscataway football coach Dan Higgins.

Now, on to our analysis!

NORTH GROUP 1

  • Top Seeds: Currently, it’s Cedar Grove (8-0) and Butler (7-0) in the top two spots, with New Milford (5-2) behind them, all with “pure” UPR ratings of 1, 2 and 3. Assuming both win this weekend, it’ll get a little closer, but we think that’ll stick. Same if Cedar Grove wins and Butler loses. But if it’s the other way around, the Bulldogs could take the top spot. New Milford looks locked in third.
  • New Providence (6-2, 6th): Should the Pioneers beat Del Val (6-1) at home Friday night, they might play themselves into the top four. Barring any other games, they get there, but might need some help to stay, in the form of a loss by New Milford, which could even bump them up to third. But a Butler loss to Glen Rock in the NJIC title game won’t bump them up any further. It doesn’t look like there’s a path to a top seed here for New Providence, but they’ll take a two-seed with as fine season as they’re having.
  • Belvidere (7-1, 12th): It wasn’t that long ago Belvidere was sinking the playoff hopes of anyone who played them, going 0-9 in Jordan Schreffler’s first season. But after incremental improvement to a 3-7 season a year ago, the County Seaters are 7-1 and winners of six straight since a season-opening non-conference loss at Boonton, 27-6. Since, they have allowed just 21 points and pitched five shutouts in their last six games, including their last two over South Hunterdon and North Warren. All that has them in line for a playoff spot with a big home game against Middlesex (6-2) Saturday afternoon at 1:30. (Follow Marcus Borden on Twitter for live coverage.) We believe they’re in no matter what happens, even with a loss and the three teams behind them (Weehawken, Kittatinny and Kinnelon) winning. But a victory over a solid Blue Jays squad (more on them below) could catapult them as high as ninth, maybe even better with some help.

SOUTH GROUP 1

  • Top Seeds: There are four teams battling it out here, with Glassboro at No. 1 followed by Woodstown, both 7-0. Then, there’s Shore (7-0) and Paulsboro (6-2) tied for third. Paulsboro has a shot at the overall No. 1 if both Glassboro and Woodstown lose, but even with a Shore win, we think Glassboro hangs on at No. 2.
  • Middlesex (6-2, 6th): With a win Saturday at Belvidere (1:30 pm, follow Marcus Borden on Twitter for live coverage), Middlesex probably doesn’t jump much, maybe edging up a spot to No. 5. And a loss may not do much either, knocking them down to seventh, but probably not further, even if the teams below them win this weekend.
  • Manville (6-2, 13th): The Mustangs are hot, having won four straight, and now get Bound Brook (1-6) in a game that won’t help them much. A loss would drop them to 15 on its own, but that and a few wins by teams behind them like Penns Grove, Pitman and Point Pleasant Beach could bounce them. That’s not likely to happen though, as the Mustangs should be favored against the Crusaders, but Penns Grove at just 1-7 facing 0-8 Salem, so a win there is not out of the question. Bottom line? Win and they’re in.