Week 7 Friday Playoff Update: Dayton win makes big splash in North 1, but doesn’t hurt Highland Park much in South 1, where Delaware Valley has shot at top four finish

With Thursday and Friday Week 7 play in the books, Central Jersey Sports Radio is taking a quick look at movement in the playoff standings based on results so far.

There are many Saturday games on the schedule that will change the standings again heading into Cutoff Weekend next weekend, although things will be a lot simpler once the Strength Index values lock in after this week.

You can find all our unofficial standings here.

This season’s playoff coverage – both leading up to and in the postseason – is proudly presented by Dayton Collision on Route 130 in South Brunswick! That includes all our analysis over the next few weeks, as well as our LIVE Playoff Projection Show, scheduled for Saturday evening, October 23rd, and tentatively set for 6 pm.

Below is a breakdown of Week 7 movement after Friday in the North and South Group 1 Supersections.

NORTH GROUP 1:

• No one is near a top seed in North 1, and it’s still Cedar Grove (6-1) and Newton (8-0) at the top, but Dayton (6-2) made a big splash with Friday night’s 28-20 home win over previously unbeaten Highland Park. The Bulldogs made a huge leap from No. 15 to No. 9 in the standings. The question is, with a home game next week against a very strong Manville team (5-3), can they go higher? They are 2.0 UPR points behind No. 8 Wallkill Valley (8-0) and 2.2 behind New Milford (5-2). Wallkill has Lenape Valley (4-4, certainly fewer residuals on the line there) and New Milford visits St. Mary (3-4, same there), both next Saturday. We’re going to see how the rest of this weekend sorts out before we dig deeper.
• Belvidere (7-1) holds at eleven after a 21-8 win Friday night over North Warren. The County Seaters – who have won seven straight since dropping their season opener – have a big one at home next Saturday against Delaware Valley (6-2), they could potentially get them near or into the top eight, depending on how much other help they can get. More likely they finish bottom eight and start the playoffs on the road, but there’s a chance they can get in the top half of the field of 16 here. Let’s see if anything else this weekend affects the race before we make a more precise call.
• Brearley (5-3) dropped a 38-35 decision Thursday to Roselle Park (4-4), and that has put the Panthers atop the Bears now, moving them up from 21, with both still just out of the playoff picture. Roselle Park is two full UPR points out, but a trip to Roselle (0-7) next week isn’t going to help them much, even with a win, so they may need help from Hawthorne (4-3, 16th) or Park Ridge (4-4, 15th) to get in, but we think it’s a long shot. As for the Bears, they are 18th and 2.4 UPR points behind No. 16 Hawthorne. North Plainfield (4-4) is next up on the road Friday night. Should the Bears win, they may have a shot, they may need some help, but we think they have a better chance, on paper, should both win, of getting in.

SOUTH GROUP 1:

• Schalick (8-0) jumped Paulsboro (5-2) into the No. 1 spot, as both teams won Friday night and flip-flopped, but there was no change for Delaware Valley (6-2), which shutout North Plainfield in Alexandria Friday night. The Terriers shrunk their UPR to 6.0, and shrunk their deficit to get into the top eight from 1.6 to just 0.2 UPR points, where they trail fourth-place Audubon (4-2). We think that’s the only top four team they can catch, and they have Bishop Eustace (4-4) next week, while Del Val has a trip to Belvidere (7-1). We think the Terriers have a good shot to jump Audubon, even if both win next week.
• Highland Park (7-1) took its first loss of the season Friday night, falling 28-20 at Dayton, but they only dropped two spots and stay in the top eight, which gives them a guarantee of a first-round playoff home game. The Owls close with a home game against Metuchen (3-4) next Friday night, but their lead to stay in the top eight is tenuous at the moment, with Burlington City (3-4) and Penns Grove (3-4) both having 9.2 UPRs, and just 0.2 behind Highland Park. Toss-up, for now.
• Manville (5-3) could have made up ground with a win over Hillside (7-1) Friday night, but the loss didn’t hurt them either since they were such a strong opponent. The Mustangs fell a spot to 13, and are likely a mid-bottom eight playoff team. But they will be in.
• South Hunterdon (4-3) remains in 19th, so no movement yet. But as we’ve said before, even a sweep of their last two games Saturday against Dunellen (1-5) or next Friday at Lyndhurst (2-6) won’t help them, and even the Golden Bears’ second win of the season won’t help because it was their eighth game, and residuals only count from an opponent’s first seven. The Eagles are likely out, barring a wacky scenario.