Week 7 Playoff Analysis: Belvidere looks good while Dayton, Brearley live on the bubble in North 1; Del Val, Highland Park shoot for home games, Manville looks like a lock

With just one more week before Cutoff Weekend in New Jersey High School football, we’re taking another detailed look at the standings and scenarios facing every public school in the Big Central Conference that’s in contention for a playoff berth.

Assuming scores are reported in a timely fashion Friday night, we’ll also publish updated standings and some light analysis late Friday or early Saturday morning. Our next update will be next week, leading up to the cutoff.

This season’s playoff coverage – both leading up to and in the postseason – is proudly presented by Dayton Collision on Route 130 in South Brunswick! That includes all our analysis over the next few weeks, as well as our LIVE Playoff Projection Show, scheduled for Saturday evening, October 23rd, and tentatively set for 6 pm.

Here’s a detailed team-by-team look at the Group 1 supersections, North and South as we head into Week 7 play this Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

NORTH GROUP 1:

• After the top two teams – Cedar Grove (5-1, 1.0 UPR) and Newton (7-0, 2.0) – look fairly entrenched in their positions, the first Big Central team we find is Belvidere (6-1, 10.40) at No. 11. While they might have a chance at a top eight seed and a first round home game, we think the more likely scenario is that they start on the road, finishing in the bottom eight. The only question here is who they’ll play; the County Seaters don’t appear to be in danger of missing the playoffs. They finish at North Warren (2-5) this week and home against Delaware Valley (5-2) next Saturday.
• On the bubble, but on the right side this week, are Dayton (5-2, 14.8) and Brearley (5-2, 15.6). Clinching a playoff spot may come down to the final week. The biggest – and maybe only – threat behind them is Hawthorne (3-3, 16.2) at 17. That’s because at No. 18 is Kittatinny (16.8) at just 1-5. They have Sussex Tech (0-6) this week and North Warren (2-5) next week, and even a sweep may not move the needle. And, they will need to win at least one to qualify for the playoffs; there’s no backing in for them. The next team is back Wallington in 19th, and while they’re 3-4, their UPR is 19.0, and that’s a lot of ground to make up to catch Brearley, which is 3.4 points ahead. Dayton has a solid schedule from here out, with Highland Park (7-0) and Manville (5-2) next weekend. Brearley has Roselle Park (3-4) and North Plainfield (4-3), and while that may not be enough to move them up much, even if they sweep, they probably won’t be hurt much either. Bottom line: we like both team’s chances. One side note: the Bears’ leading rusher Monroe Passmoore just had one carry last week, and his health down the stretch could be a wild card in this scenario.

SOUTH GROUP 2:

• Paulsboro (5-2, 1.4 UPR) and Schalick (7-0, 1.6) are the top two teams here, and are in good shape generally, but could flip by the time all is said and done. After Salem (4-3, 3.0, 3rd) and Pennsville (4-3, 6.0), there are two Big Central teams: Delaware Valley (5-2, 7.6) and Highland Park (7-0, 7.6) tied for fifth. Either could potentially end up in the top four, but No. 4 is probably the ceiling for both. They didn’t and don’t play each other this year, so there’s no head-to-head tiebreaker that could be involved. The Terriers have North Plainfield (4-3) at home this week and Belvidere (6-1) on the road next week, so a move to fourth is doable. Same for the Owls, who have Dayton (5-2) on the road this week for the Freedom Gold Division title, and then close next Friday at home against Metuchen (2-4) in their annual rival game, at which L.J. Smith’s jersey will be retired by Highland Park.
• Manville (5-2, 10.8) checks in at No. 12, and we believe they are solidly in the field of 16 at this point, but, but getting into the top eight might be a big ask, with Penns Grove (4-2) and Shore (2-4) tied for eighth at 8.60 UPR. The Mustangs have Hillside (6-1) this week at home, then are at Dayton (5-2) next week. So, we’ll put emphasis on might in the previous sentence as far as earning a first-round home game.
• The biggest question here is can South Hunterdon (4-3, 19.2, 18th) make it? They’re tied with Woodbury (2-5), and the Herd play the last game on the schedule Saturday – at 6 pm! Why? – when they play Buena, which will be ineligible for the playoffs after multiple players were DQd in a fight that broke out in a game with Lindenwold (although they wouldn’t have qualified anyway). They also have to jump New Egypt (4-3, 18.6). Problem is their last two opponents are Dunellen (1-5) at home this week, and Lyndhurst (1-6) away on Cutoff Weekend. This may not be in the cards.