Week 6 Playoff Analysis: Dayton has shot at a top seed in North 1, while Belvidere and Brearley are good bets for berths; Del Val and Manville eye top eight finishes in South 1, with Highland Park on the verge of a playoff berth

As we get closer to Cutoff Weekend in New Jersey High School football, we’ll be taking a more detailed look each week at the standings, and the scenarios involving every public school in the Big Central Conference in contention for a playoff spot.

This season’s playoff coverage – both leading up to and in the postseason – is proudly presented by Dayton Collision on Route 130 in South Brunswick! That includes all our analysis over the next few weeks, as well as our LIVE Playoff Projection Show, scheduled for Saturday evening, October 23rd, and tentatively set for 6 pm.

Here’s a detailed team-by-team look at the North and South Group 1 Supersections as we head into Week 6 play this Thursday, Friday and Saturday. (Note: This analysis does not include Thursday night games in Week 6.)

NORTH GROUP 1:

Cedar Grove (4-1, 1.00 UPR) is the “true” No. 1 seed here, with Newton (6-0, 2.00) a true two. After that, it’s a bit of a way to No. 3 Wood-Ridge (6-0, 4.40) and the first Big Central team, which is Dayton (4-2, 10.80) at No. 9, tied with New Milford, which also is 4-2. The Bulldogs are within 0.20 UPR points of No. 8 Verona, and they could even catch seventh-place Mountain Lakes (4-2, 8.60), but that’s likely their ceiling as of now. But they will have to watch at least four teams – including New Milford – all within a single UPR point behind them.
Belvidere (5-1, 12.40) checks in at No. 14, and may have a tough time reaching the top eight to get a first round home game, but they certainly can make a positive move upward over the next couple of weeks.
So can Brearley (5-1, 12.20), which is in 15th place. The nice thing is the Bears – though they won’t reach the top eight, are a full three points ahead of 16th place Hawthorne (3-2, 15.40), and four ahead of 17th place Wallington (3-3, 16.40). They may not be locked in just yet, but we wouldn’t call them a bubble team just yet. They’re well-situated on the right side of it, though.

SOUTH GROUP 1:

Undefeated Schalick (6-0, 1.00 UPR) and Paulsboro (4-2, 2.00) are the “true” one- and two-seeds here, and then it’s down to seventh for our first Big Central team, where we have Delaware Valley (4-2) and Penns Grove (4-1) tied, both with 7.20 UPRs. We think the Terriers’ ceiling is around four, as Woodstown (3-3, 6.40) is not that far ahead, even though they are three places higher, with Audubon (3-2, 6.60) and Shore (2-3, 7.00) in between. Ultimately, they look like a top eight finisher.
Manville (5-2, 10.00) sat in 11th before its Thursday night win at Middlesex, but we’re not going to update the standings here, other than to say that even their 28-20 victory may not have given them enough OSI points to move up. Still, they were just 2.80 UPR points out of the top eight, and have Hillside (5-1) and Dayton (4-2) next week, where a pair of wins could boost their standing. The question is: how much?
Highland Park (6-0, 13.40 UPR) sits in 14th, as the Owls – with their second six-win season in the last three years, following a 51-game losing streak – try to break their playoff drought; their last appearance was in 2010. Can they? Well, they have their toughest stretch of the year this week and next, with Brearley at home Friday, then a trip to Dayton next Friday before closing with former Thanksgiving rival Metuchen at home on Cutoff Weekend. They very well may need to win one of the next two, but then again, running the table and going undefeated would help, too, because regardless of where they finish, a 9-0 mark would guarantee them a playoff berth by NJSIAA rule. We aren’t sure it will have to come to that.