Rutgers Prep’s Rocco Loomis puts up a shot in a home game against Phillipsburg on December 16, 2025. The Argonauts are a likely top seed in Non-Public North A. (Source: @rpshoops on Instagram)
There’s only a week to go, but still a lot of basketball to be played when it comes to the push for the state playoffs.
Some will be playing GMC Tournament games this week, hoping for a deep run, while others will be playing regular season ball, but a few will have Somerset County Tournament semifinal games at Franklin this Saturday, with big power point values on the table.
All games up to an including Saturday will count, and the top 16 power point values will figure into each team’s ranking. Power points is a mixture of quality points, residuals, and the OOWP, Opponents’ Opponent Winning Percentage, a strength factor of sorts. Keep in mind, power points are an average, not a cumulative total, and as games are played, lower scores will drop off.
In that way, it’s possible that a loss won’t necessarily lower a team’s average. For example, if a team loses to a six-win team, and that’s their lowest score, it just won’t count toward the average. And if a team wins a big game, they may not necessarily gain that many points. Rather, they would gain the difference between that game, and a lower score that dropped off.
With that said, this will be our final full look at power points before the cutoff. We’ll take a look at the standings after Saturday and give our projections on Sunday, with the NJSIAA announcing the seeds and brackets next Tuesday. We’ll have those as well once they become official.
On to the breakdown! All analysis is based on NJSIAA power points as reported on NJ.com as of noon on February 8, 2026. Click the header on each section to go to the page for that section.
Since our last update two weeks ago, the No. 1 and 2 teams have flip-flopped. Montgomery (19-3, 33.535) had trailed East Brunswick (18-5, 31.264) by 0.349 points, but now the Cougars are atop the section by 2.271 points over East Brunswick. Thei could come right down to the wire, and it’s even possible third-place Marlboro (15-4, 29.95) and fourth-place Hillsbroough (15-6, 29.262) could make a push for second, though likely not first; almost four points is tough to make up at this late stage of the game. Monty has a Thursday tilt with Hunterdon Central (10-12), and then, as the third-seed, will play second-seed Rutgers Prep (15-7) in the Somerset County Tournament semifinals at noon Saturday (live on CJSR). Both are big power point opportunities, with 36 for Central and 51 for prep before the OOWP is factored in. East Brunswick is locked into the GMC Tournament, done with its regular season, as they are the fourth-seed, have a double-bye, and await the winner of Tuesday’s preliminary round game between 21-seed JP Stevens (10-12) and 12-seed Piscataway Magnet (17-4). Neither are chopped liver in terms of power points, with St. Thomas Aquinas (9-13) awaiting Saturday at home in the quarterfinals should the Bears advance. Hillsborough has a massive game against Rutgers Prep (15-7) on Tuesday and has a non-conference matchup with Caldwell (15-4) Saturday. A split could lock up a four-seed, but if not – or even if they win out – they still might have to watch Jackson (15-4, 28.456) behind them, but probably not Trenton.
Right at the 8/9 line we have Sayreville (13-9, 23.242) and Franklin (9-12, 22.854). The ceiling for the Bombers is likely seventh, a spot occupied by Freehold Twp. (11-8, 24.906), just 1.664 points ahead of them. We think they probably won’t drop further than nine, but obviously top eight is the goal here so they can at least get one tournament game at the Bomb Shelter. Franklin, however, could be vulnerable down to 12, with Hunterdon Central (10-12, 20.949) in tenth, followed by Hightstown (10-14, 20.83) in 11th, and South Brunswick (12-8, 20.456) in 12th. Either way, most of that group will finish below the 8/9 line and open on the road. Edison (10-11, 19.472), right behind the Vikings, should be locked into a bottom eight seed, but we don’t think they’re quite a bubble team. They should be in.
The next interesting group is on the bubble. There are four GMC teams from 16 to 19: Old Bridge (7-14, 15.788), North Brunswick (6-16, 15.287), Monroe (5-16, 12.431) and New Brunswick (6-15, 12.247). The Zebras and Falcons are somewhat longshots, but North Brunswick and Old Bridge are separate by just 0.501 points, and that could easily flip-flop. Although 15th-place Manalapan (8-13) isn’t a lock either, so there’s a chance the Raiders and Knights could make it while the Braves miss. Too close to call at this point.
First-place Wall (17-1, 33.672) just got knocked off by Colonia, and we’ll have more on what that means to the Patriots when we get to their section. The Crimson Knights had nearly a four-and-a-half point lead over Metuchen (19-2, 31.386) in second place in our last update two weeks ago, but that has shrunk to just 2.286. We’re still not sure the Bulldogs can make the jump from two to one, especially considering their GMC Tournament schedule. They’re the nine-seed, and open play Tuesday against 12-seed Timothy Christian (3-17). That won’t move the needle, and if they win, they get 8th-seed Old Bridge (7-14), not a big power point game even if they pull the upset. Should they advance to Saturday, and pull off the upset of the year over No. 1 St. Joseph-Metuchen, they might be able to do it, but boy, that’s a big ask. And Wall’s schedule isn’t exactly shabby. They open play as the two-seed in the Shore Conference Tournament Thursday against either 15th-seed Ocean Twp. (15-8) or 18-seed Colts Neck (11-9). Should they win that one, they would most likely get 7th-seed Manasquan (11-8).
From there, it’s all the way down to 12 for Spotswood (13-9, 21.761). They are almost assured of a bottom eight finish and an opening round game on the road, but they’re also not a bubble team. We think the Chargers are squarely in.
Not quite so for East Brunswick Magnet (10-12, 15.61), which sits in the 16th and final spot with a week to go. They will be hard pressed to move up to 15, where Governor Livingston (8-12, 18.321) sits, but could face a challenge at least from 17th-place Bordentown (7-12, 13.547). Others are likely too far back.
A bunch of teams are bunched up here in the top four slots, but their movement might be a little limited. Thrive Charter (16-3, 30.331) is first, but it’s possible they may have to fend off Point Pleasant Beach (17-6, 28.349). Point beach may, in tunr, have to keep third-place Middlesex (14-7, 25.086) at bay, but the Jays won’t be able to get to No. 1. Likewise, they have fourth-place Shore (16-4, 24.346) nipping at their heels, while fifth-place Piscataway Magnet (17-4, 23.031) could have a crack at Middlesex, too. We think they’re safe from Manville (13-8, 20.281), which is in sixth – not 7th as shown in the standings – because the current 6th place team is Foundation Collegiate out of Trenton, which us undefeated, but has only played one game, 15 shy of the minimum to qualify.
But behind the Mustangs are a three teams that are close enough and could reach as high as sixth, so this is all too close to call as to who is going to make the top eight and earn at least one first round home game. Henry Hudson (15-6, 20.278) is in seventh, just 0.003 behind Manville, followed by South Amboy (14-5, 19.769) in eighth, and Bound Brook (15-8, 19.58) ninth. Only one of those three likely ends up outside the top eight, as Dunellen (11-12, 16.454) is probably too far back to catch any of them, sitting in 10th.
Near the bottom, Perth Amboy Magnet (8-10, 13.026) is on the right side of the bubble in 14th, potentially with a ceiling of 12, where they are just 1.005 points behind 12th place Keansburg, with South Hunterdon (8-12, 13.945) right in between them. Behind PA Magnet is New Providence (4-15, 12.877) in 15th and Central Jersey College Charter (6-10, 12.73) in 16th. But there are four teams within range behind them to look out for: Florence (7-12, 12.605, 17th), Keyport (10-10, 12.398, 18th), Brearley (6-11, 12.291, 19th), and Roselle Park (4-13, 12.269, 20th) all have a shot and are within 0.461 points of the top 16.
North Jersey, Section 2, Group 4
Now 17-6 on the season, Piscataway (34.243) has surged to the top of a bunch that was tightly-packed two weeks ago, and remains so, just in different spots. Back then, it was Union, Bayonne, defending Group 4 state champion Plainfield, then the Chiefs. Those three are in the same order, just behind Piscataway. And they’ll all have big games coming up in county tournaments, too. But the Chiefs have more distance down to No. 2 where Union (17-3, 32.45) sits – 1.793 points – than separated all three teams ahead of them two weeks ago. Bayonne (18-5, 31.827) is in third, followed by the Cardinals (17-4, 31.376) and Linden (14-8, 31.198) in fifth.
Sixth-place Perth Amboy (20-4, 29.803) might have a ceiling of third-place, but it would be tough to jump all those teams. The most likely scenario is they end up outside the top four, but that would still give the Panthers – who are having a season for the ages around there, having won their first division title since 1993 – at least two guaranteed home games, should they win their opener.
Next, it’d down to 11 and 12 for Ridge (10-11, 22.487) and Bridgewater-Raritan (13-7). The Red Devils struggled early, dealing with injuries, but moved up two spots since our last update two weeks ago, when they were in 13th, while the Panthers have dropped five spots to 12. They had a brutal week right before our last check-in, but overall, are 3-7 since starting the year 10-0. Both should finish in the bottom eight. JP Stevens (10-12, 19.095) is all but assured of a spot, but even in 15th, there’s in a good place. The first team out, in 17th, is Phillipsburg (6-13, 16.289), a little under two points behind the Hawks, but based on their record, we don’t think they can move the needle enough to jump 16th-place Westfield (6-16) and JP Stevens. So, we think they’re safe.
North Jersey, Section 2, Group 3
What a run by Colonia! The Patriots – who have won this section the last four years, and five out of the last six, making the title game each of those seasons – were sitting in eighth place two week ago. They were 7-8 then, are 14-8 now (32.079 points), and have stormed up to No. 2, no doubt helped by a 52-46 win at previously-unbeaten Wall Saturday. The Patriots are just 0.285 points out of first behind Millburn (18-4, 32.364). It’s now doable for Colonia thanks to their late-season rally.
South Plainfield (13-9, 23.942) dropped one spot in the last two weeks to sixth, and we think fifth might be their ceiling, not too far behind fifth-place Warren Hills (14-4, 26.644), but catching fourth-place Mendham (15-7, 26.946) – last year’s runner-up here – might be tough.
They might also have to look out for some teams behind them, including seventh-place Cranford (15-7, 24.859), Randolph (13-9, 24.72), and even ninth-place Somerville (14-7, 23.589). Right behind them is North Plainfield (12-11, 22.494), a potential threat to the Pioneers, but probably not to the Tigers. The ‘Ville and the Canucks may both have a shot at the top eight here, but Somerville is more likely.
Further down, JFK (11-12, 19.035) sits in 14th, and we think is pretty safe in terms of finishing in the Top 16. After Nutley (14-6, 18.225) behind them, Carteret (9-13, 17.44) is on the right side of the bubble, but has three teams behind them within one full point: Fort Lee (8-14, 16.674, 17th), Lincoln (10-10, 16.654, 18th), and North Hunterdon (7-12, 16.494, 19th).
North Jersey, Section 2, Group 2
Bernards (8-12, 19.117) is the only CJSR team in this section, sitting in seventh, and likely a top eight finisher, whatever Weequahic (13-7, 18.947) does, with Voorhees (8-11, 15.659) a decent distance back. Newark Collegiate (15-6, 29.715) is in first here, followed by Ridgefield Park (17-4, 27.782).
Other than Gill St. Bernard’s (20-2, 40.058) in first, this section is a mish-mosh of some really good teams in the top four, and the rest of the way mostly sub-.500 squads. It’s rough after Morris Catholic (17-3, 34.268), second, Roselle Catholic (16-6, 33.965), St. Mary-Rutherford (20.3, 32.221) and Morristown-Beard (12-7, 25.486). There’s not another team over .500 in the bunch, including Timothy Christian (3-17, 11.403) in seventh and Wardlaw-Hartridge (4-11, 9.273) in 10th. Besides them, would Saddle River Day (1-20, 9.912) in eighth opt-out? Then, Golda Och (5-7) won’t and Franklin School (Jersey City) (3-8) may not reach the 16-game minimum. And Hawthorne Christian (0-17) probably is out. We could see five or six teams of the 15 not even play here.
The top few spots are not settled, but right now it’s Paul VI (18-3, 40.387), Christian Brothers (19-3, 39.08), and St. Peter’s Prep (18-3, 37.169) first through third. Immaculata (16-5, 31.236) checks in at five, and they could catch Red Bank Catholic (16-6, 32.793), as could St. Joseph-Metuchen (21-1, 30.646) in sixth. We don’t think they fall below that, so it’s the Caseys, Spartans and Falcons fighting for that fourth spot, 2.147 points between them.
Further down, Pingry (11-7, 24.221) sits in tenth, with a likely ceiling of eight, where there’s Union Catholic (10-10, 24.898), followed by St. Augustine (13-10, 24.631). There’s just 0.677 between them
St. Thomas Aquinas (9-13) is right behind the Big Blue, but they’re almost five full points behind, a big ask at this late date. We don’t anticipate any dropouts here in what is a 14-team field, giving the top two teams a bye.
Rutgers Prep (15-7, 33.94), the second-seed in the Somerset County Tournament is a pretty sure bet to hold on to the No. 1 seed here, though they may still need to beat third-seed Montgomery Saturday in the semifinals (10 am live on CJSR) to do it. Holy Spirit (17-5, 31.633) is in second, and Holy Cross Prep (17-4, 30.651) may be too far behind to catch them. After that – factoring in St. Joseph-Hammonton being disqualified due to an early-January benches-clearing brawl against LEAP Academy – it’s all the way down to Calvary Christian (6-13, 10.703) in 12th. Noor-ul-iman (6-7) may not reach the 16-game minimum, so we think this should, at best, be a 13-team field, with the top three getting byes.
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