Somerville and Immaculata tip off in a Skyland Conference Mountain Division game at Immaculata High School in Somerville on December 18, 2025. The Pioneers have overtaken Colonia in the battle for a top-seed in North 2, Group 2, a week before the cutoff. (Photo: Mike Pavlichko)
The NJSIAA Cutoff for games to count toward playoff contention is this Saturday, a busy day for the county tournaments in our area, as Somerset County holds its semifinals at Franklin, while the GMC Tournament will be in the quarterfinal round, with all games at higher seeds this year rather that neutral sites as in the past.
All games up to an including Saturday will count, and the top 16 power point values will figure into each team’s ranking. Power points is a mixture of quality points, residuals, and the OOWP, Opponents’ Opponent Winning Percentage, a strength factor of sorts. Keep in mind, power points are an average, not a cumulative total, and as games are played, lower scores will drop off.
In that way, it’s possible that a loss won’t necessarily lower a team’s average. For example, if a team loses to a six-win team, and that’s their lowest score, it just won’t count toward the average. And if a team wins a big game, they may not necessarily gain that many points. Rather, they would gain the difference between that game, and a lower score that dropped off.
With that said, this will be our final full look at power points before the cutoff. We’ll take a look at the standings after Saturday and give our projections on Sunday, with the NJSIAA announcing the seeds and brackets next Tuesday. We’ll have those as well once they become official.
On to the breakdown! All analysis is based on NJSIAA power points as reported on NJ.com as of noon on February 8, 2026. Click the header on each section to go to the page for that section.
Defending champion Hillsborough (15-5) has fallen to third, after going 1-3 since our last update two weeks ago, with losses to Bernards, Rutgers Prep and then Bound Brook Saturday in the Somerset County Tournament quarterfinals. The new No. 1 here is Franklin (13-7, 29.69), just a tiny bit ahead of East Brunswick (18-4, 29.494) in second. And the Raiders (15-5, 28.905) are not that far back. It should be noted that Franklin crushed the Raiders 72-44 on January 16th, even though they didn’t jump ‘Boro until now, while East Brunswick lost at Hillsborough, 70-52, back on January 22nd, in a game aired on Central Jersey Sports Radio. But, unlike football, head-to-head only matters if teams are tied, and that’s very rare with this power point system, which uses averages and rounds to three decimal points entirely for the purpose of avoiding ties. They happen, but not much. There might also be Hunterdon Central (14-7, 27.637) to worry about, but that’s likely it. The Red Devils may not be able to reach the top spot, but a lot can happen in any order. Hillsborough will have a little more flexibility than Franklin or East Brunswick in scheduling this week since they’re out of the county tournament. According to their online schedule, they have one game scheduled this week, Thursday at Morris Knolls (8-12). East Brunswick is locked in to the GMC Tournament first round on Wednesday, where they’ll play either 15-seed Carteret (13-8) or 18th-seed North Brunswick (4-18), then would be most likely to face 7th-seed Monroe (8-10) Saturday at home in the quarterfinals. As for the Warriors, they have Montgomery (10-9) at home Monday, then Mount St. Mary (7-11) on Wednesday before playing two-seed and defending champion Gill St. Bernard’s (17-4) Saturday in the SCT quarterfinals. The closest thing to a sure thing here is to say it’ll be a CJSR-area team starting the playoffs as a top-seed here.
Further down the list is New Brunswick (11-9, 19.914) sitting in eighth place. The goal is a top eight seed to earn a home game, and this one is very much up in the air. The Zebras’ likely ceiling here is seven, a spot currently held by Marlboro (13-7, 20.065). But there are three teams packed tightly behind them, and our take is that these five could end up in any order, all separated by just 0.716 points. That includes Freehold Twp. (10-10, 19.91, just 0.004 behind New Brunswick), Sayreville (16-4, 19.352) in tenth and Montgomery (10-9, 19.349) in eleventh. Any of these five, we believe, could finish in the top eight, but it’s likely only two of them will.
Down near the bottom of the top 16, we have Old Bridge (8-12, 16.181) and Monroe (8-10, 16.172) in 14th and 15th place, respectively. To us, they’re still on the bubble, but at least on the right side. Ahead of then, 13th place West Windsor-Plainsboro South (12-10, 16.216) is likely in that same situation. Behind them is Hightstown (9-12, 16.132), then Manalapan (12-7, 15.225) at 17 on the wrong side of the bubble, but less than one full point out of a playoff spot. That appears to be the group of five teams fighting for the last four playoff spots. Edison (6-15, 13.127) is in 18th, but they might be too far back to make it in one week, unless they can make a run in the GMC Tournament. The 11th-seed, the Eagles open up play on Monday against 22-seed JFK (6-18), and would likely face 6th-seed Woodbridge (15-6) on Wednesday in the second round, should they advance. Edison lost to the Barrons in their own Gene Haley/Jim Muldowney Memorial Holiday Classic, 70-54, after Christmas, but consider this: That was loss No. 6 in a stretch where they started the season 0-11, but they are 6-4 since, even avenging an earlier season loss to Old Bridge.
Manasquan and Rumson-Fair Haven are the pretty clear-cut top two seeds at this point, but South River (18-5, 26.785) is in the mix for the No. 3 seed, despite sitting in fourth behind Johnson (17-2, 27.758), albeit less than one full point behind. Two weeks ago, we figured the Rams could pull up, and they did, gaining three spots in that span. We think they will end up three or four, as fifth-place Bordentown (14-2, 23.813) is nearly three full points behind, a lot of ground to make up this late in the game. Of course, it’s a little bit of “pick your poison” for the Rams, as ‘Squan (No. 9 in New Jersey) and Rumson are very strong teams. South River is locked into the GMC Tournament, at least for now. The 21st seed, they stomped 28-seed Wardlaw-Hartridge Saturday in the play-in round, and will visit 12-seed South Plainfield (7-16) Monday in the preliminary round. If they advance, they will probably lose some regular season games scheduled for this week, including Thursday against East Brunswick Magnet (8-10) and Friday against Edison (6-15). The Rams, at the very least, have a shot at the three, but probably finish no lower than four, giving them home court advantage at least through the sectional quarterfinals.
Piscataway Magnet (17-3, 23.623) sits in sixth place at the moment, 0.19 behind fifth-place Bordentown (14-2, 23.813) and barely ahead of seventh-place Point Pleasant Boro (11-9, 23.521). Those three are likely all jockeying for position among themselves, and could end up in any order, with just 0.292 points separating them, but more distance between the teams above and below them.
That would also leave Spotswood (13-9, 20.867) hoping to fend off some teams behind them to hold on to the 8th spot, a top eight finish, and at least one first round home game. The Chargers may not be able to catch Point Pleasant Boro, unless they were to win their first-round GMC Tournament game on Wednesday (they’re a five-seed, and could host 12-seed South Plainfield or 21-seed and arch-rival South River) and then knock off fourth-seed Colonia (16-2), their likely quarterfinal opponent – again, if they get there. There are probably three teams within reach of them, starting with Delaware Valley (10-10) in ninth, Delran (11-8, 20.123) in tenth, and Governor Livingston (8-11, 19.316) in eleventh.
Despite Metuchen (9-10, 15.251) being in 15th, looks like it should be in. That’s because the next team behind them, East Brunswick Magnet (8-10, 11.775) is 3.476 points back, a lot to make up. Then again, teams with fewer wins have more to gain with wins compared to those who have a lot. Still, we think the Bulldogs are in, but the Tigers are squarely on the bubble, even though it’s the right side of it. They have two teams behind them to fend off: Ocean Twp. (7-15, 11.501) and Monmouth (5-12, 10.385). We say the odds are likely better than half, maybe closer to two-thirds that Magnet makes it. The last two teams, Raritan (1-16) and Roselle (0-3) won’t factor in here.
The gap has narrowed, but the top two teams remain in the same positions they were a week ago: New Providence (19-1, 34.749) first and Bound Brook (20-1, 33.35) in second. The top seed may not be out of the question for Bound Brook, and it would certainly help if the Crusaders, who are the fourth-seed in the Somerset County Tournament, could knock off top-seed Rutgers Prep (18-2) in Saturday’s semifinals (noon on CJSR). According to their online schedule, they have no other games this week, but that could change. The Pioneers only have Oak Knoll (10-8) scheduled this week, Monday at 5:30, so they could add some games as well.
South Amboy (15-5, 23.03) sits in fifth, but they might have a shot at a top four-seed. They’d have to catch Brearley (13-3, 24.172) ahead of them in fourth, and/or Roselle Park (14-5, 24.557) in third. The Lady Guvs are the 25th-seed in the GMC Tournament, and are locked in with the preliminary round Monday, where they visit 9th-seed Old Bridge (8-12), but remember, group points no longer count, so the Knights being a Group 4 school with South Amboy is in Group 1 doesn’t help them any. Then again, The Guvs could also fall back. Keansburg (17-0, 22.143) is not far back at six, nor is Shore (13-9, 21.992, 7th).
Middlesex (12-8, 19.886) and Manville (13-6, 19.362) sit in ninth and tenth, respectively, but they could have a shot at a top eight seed, and maybe both could get in. Thrive Charter (8-10, 20.789) is not that far ahead in eighth, and Shore might be reachable, too. But it’s likely niether falls lower than ten, as 11th-place Florence (9-9, 13.777) is more than five points back, an enormous hill.
The best Highland Park (7-15, 12.979) and College Achieve Central (7-8, 11.9) could do, in that case, is 11th, if they catch Florence, as the Owls and College Achieve sit 12th and 13th at the moment. There are also some tightly-packed teams behind them, including Henry Hudson (7-12, 10.579, 14th), Perth Amboy Magnet (4-10, 10.307) and Dunellen (3-18, 10.042), who could move up, but the Patriots and Destroyers are well on the proverbial bubble. A win by anyone behind them could make a bug jump since they have few wins; that includes Dayton (2-15, 9.978), Empowerment Academy Charter (2-7-1, 9.376), Point Pleasant Beach (3-18, 9.164) and South Hunterdon (2-17, 9.136).
North Jersey, Section 2, Group 4
It’s likely going to be between Bayonne (18-3, 31.936) and Westfield (15-6, 30.506) at the top, then it’s down to Piscataway (12-6, 23.36) and Woodbridge (15-6, 20.914) at six and seven. Just like a couple of weeks ago, we think the Chiefs still could max out around No. 3, a spot currently held by Plainfield (11-10, 24.452), which is just 1.092 points ahead, with Columbia (14-6, 24.437) and Elizabeth (13-7, 23.528) ahead of them. A top four finish is within reach for them, but probably not Woodbridge, which is one spot behind, but with a big gap. And the Barrons will have to watch teams behind the, all in close proximity. That includes North Star Academy (10-11, 21.149, 8th), Watchung Hills (8-11, 20.146, 9th) and Bridgewater-Raritan (10-11, 19.836, 10th). Any of those could finish in the top eight, and a lot could change this week. It’s just too close to call for that group.
Further down, we’ve got Ridge (7-12, 14.618) at 14, followed by Perth Amboy (10-7, 14.506) at 15, and JP Stevens (8-11, 13.583). They are all on the right side of the bubble, but they are indeed on it. The next two teams might have a shot, but they’re we think only one of them has a chance to crack the top 16. That’s Newark East Side (7-8, 13.495), which is just a game below the .500 mark. Even though Phillipsburg is about 1.2 points out of 16th – generally not a terribly wide gap – they are only 3-14 (12.315). They have three games this week: Monday at Voorhees (13-5), Thursday against Cherry Hill East (11-11) and Friday against Mount Olive (4-16). The chances they win the first two are slim, and a win in the last of those may not be enough to move the needle. All that needs to be figured out to say Ridge is the safest, and we think the last two spots will come down to Perth Amboy, JP Stevens and East Side.
North Jersey, Section 2, Group 3
Colonia (16-2, 26.653) had a lead of 4.741 power points two weeks ago. But they were undefeated at the time, and have since gone 2-2. That, and a surge by Somerville (17-5, 29.004) – which went 5-1 in that same span, from 12-4 to 17-5 – has put the Pioneers on top by 2.351 points, a more than seven-point swing. Somerville’s time in the Somerset County Tournament ended Saturday with a loss by the eighth-seeded Pioneers to nine-seed Watchung Hills, and they have two regular season games this week against pretty good competition: at Bernards (17-3) Tuesday and at home against Voorhees (13-5) Thursday. They could even pick up another if they think they need it Friday or Saturday. Colonia, meanwhile, is locked into the GMC Tournament, where they are the 4th-seed and open play Wednesday in the first round against either 13-seed JP Stevens (8-11) or 20th-seed Highland Park (7-15). Our thinking here is that the top seed is in Somerville’s hands. It’s possible a win at Bernards Tuesday night could clinch it, although the Mountaineers also are playing to hold on to the No. 2 seed in North 2, Group 2. Colonia also could have to watch two teams behind them – Cranford (11-11, 24.717, 3rd) and Chatham (10-11, 24.365, 4th) – and that could come right down to the wire.
The next team from the CJSR area down the list is Carteret (13-8, 17,634). The Ramblers are in ninth, less than two points behind eighth-place Summit (19.464). That’s likely the only team within Carteret’s reach, since they are 15 in the GMCT and will open Monday against 18-seed North Brunswick (4-18), which isn’t likely to help them much, if at all. And if they do advance, they get second-seed East Brunswick, which is 18-4 and in contention for a top seed in Central Jersey Group 4. All that being said, never say never, but it’s highly likely the Ramblers don’t crack the top eight.
South Plainfield (7-16, 15.177) also is in a kind of n-man’s land. We think they’re fairly solidly in, even though it’s not a lock, as just about everything would have to go wrong for them to miss. It’s more tentative for 14th-place North Plainfield (4-15, 13.863) and 16th-place JFK (6-18, 13.495), with Newark’s Payne Tech (4-16, 13.604) in between them. While all are on the right side of the bubble, the biggest likely threats come from Randolph (6-12, 12.44), Rahway (4-14, 12.328) and even Warren Hills (2-17, 12.054) at 19, because at this stage of the game, just one win could be enormous when you only have two. Granted, the Blue Streaks have lost 13 straight, but if they can upset North Hunterdon (9-11) at home on senior night, that could be enough to drop JFK out for the time being. The Mustangs are the 22-seed in the GMCT and have 11-seed Edison (6-15) Monday, and if they win that one, visit No. 6 Woodbridge (15-6) Wednesday.
North Jersey, Section 2, Group 2
Not much change from last time, Bernards (17-3, 32.985) is still well behind first-place Caldwell (18-0, 38.284), but has expanded its lead over the team behind them, now Madison (16-3, 29.652). We think the Mountaineers are likely a two-seed, but they have a big one with Somerville (17-5) Tuesday at home, with the Pioneers playing to hold on to the top-seed in NOrth 2, Group 3.
The only area team here is Pingry (11-8, 23.702), and the Big Blue currently sit in 6th in what should be a 15-team field (all 15 in the section should make it) with Morris Catholic (16-5, 35.902) nearly three-points ahead of Immaculate Heart (16-3, 32.219) for the top-seed and an opening round bye.
Gill St. Bernard’s (17-4, 36.069) is the only CJSR-area team in the group, and they are in first-place by a wide-margin. They’ll hold on to it, and this should be an 11-team section, taking out those who don’t meet the 16-game minimum requirement.
As it was two weeks ago, it’s still between Red Bank Catholic (21-2, 47.621) and St. John Vianney (20-2, 44.071) for the top two seeds, even though the Caseys have a sizable lead this late in the game. Currently, St. Thomas Aquinas (17-5, 32.676) is in fourth, though they might have a crack at the No. 3 spot, currently held by Paul VI (16-1, 34.883). RBC has a home GMC crossover with Piscataway (12-6) Monday, and they will open Shore Conference Tournament play as the top-seed in the Round of 16 against either 17-seed Marlboro or 16-seed Point Pleasant Boro. Vianney won’t play again until that same round Thursday – unless they pick up another game in the meantime – when the two-seed faces either 18-seed Shore or 15th-seed Toms River South. Aquinas, however, also will have to watch teams right behind them, like Camden Catholic (16-4, 31.783) less than one full point behind, as well as Bishop Eustace (13-8, 30.989) in sixth and Trinity Hall (16-6, 30.471) in seventh. Further down, we have Immaculata (8-11, 17.154) in 14th out of 15th. All 15 will make it here, as it’s likely no one will drop out. The Spartans likely have a ceiling of 12 in this section.
Rutgers Prep (18-2, 38.04) has a decent lead here over Gloucester Catholic (17-3, 36.199), but not insurmountable. They have three more games this week: Tuesday at Montgomery (10-9), Thursday at Pingry (11-8), and Saturday – as the top-seed – in the Somerset County Tournament quarterfinals against 4th-seed Bound Brook (20-1), which you can hear on Central Jersey Sports Radio. While the Argonauts should win the first two, they will be favored in the last of those, despite the Crusader’s record, simply by virtue of them getting the top-seed and Bound Brook the fourth. But make no mistake, a loss there – or in any of the three, really – could cost Prep. Not that it might matter much; unlike in the public sections, non-public finals are at neutral sites, so the only difference here might be what color jersey Rutgers Prep will wear if they make it to the finals at Jackson Liberty, where they lost last year to Gloucester Catholic in the title game.
Elsewhere, there are 15 teams in the section, but it’s likely some could opt out. For example, Timothy Christian has only played six games, lost them all, and opted out of the GMC Tournament. St. Joseph-Hammonton is 0-10 and Noor ul-iman is 1-6; both will be out because they haven’t played the minimum 16 to qualify per NJSIAA rule, which would leave this as a 12-team section, with the top four – including Prep getting byes. What does that mean for Calvary Christian (7-9, 12.305) in tenth and Wardlaw-Hartridge (5-11, 10.233) in 12th? Likely, Wardlaw finishes as the 12-seed, but Calvary could bounce up or down. They have Holy Cross Prep (9-11, 13.204) less than a point aheead of them in ninth and Doane Academy (9-9, 13.209) in 8th. Calvary got knocked out of the GMC Tournament Saturday in the play-in round by JFK, but they have two regular season games scheduled this week, both on the road: Highland Park (7-15) Thursday and Manville (13-6) Friday. If they could grab those, they might get to the top eight and get a first-round home game. More likely they split, and we think they could finish as high as nine, but they could drop with two losses.
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