Group 4 Playoff Chase for Week 7: Phillipsburg maintains top-seed position despite loss; North 2 Group 4 looks crowded with BCC squads

With the NJSIAA’s Cutoff Weekend for high school football next week in New Jersey, Central Jersey Sports Radio is taking a closer look at the race for the playoffs, including who’s in the running for top seeds, who’s in, who’s jockeying for position, and who has some work to do just to get in, or stay in the hunt.

We’ll break down each supersection, with individual team analysis for all Big Central Conference schools. Much will change this week, and we’ll have a clearer picture after Week 7 once Strength Index numbers lock in for next week.

We’ll have an unofficial update this weekend after Friday’s games, and another look after Saturday’s contests as we speed toward Cutoff Weekend. And don’t forget to tune in to Central Jersey Sports Radio’s “2025 Playoff Projection Show” at 6 pm on Saturday, October 25, with host Mike Pavlichko and analyst Marcus Borden.

Please note, we have not done any UPR tiebreakers – other than putting higher OSI teams first – and no top-down head-to-head changes either. Section standings are based on the Top 16 as shown here.

NORTH GROUP 4

Phillipsburg: Despite Saturday’s loss to St. Joseph-Metuchen – which is a multiplier game – the Stateliners remain in one of the top two spots, in line for a top-seed in North 2, Group 4. No one else close to a top seed is more South than Phillipsburg, so if they do get it, not only would they be in a natural section, but there could be six other teams – seven total – from the Big Central in that field of eight! They have a one-point UPR lead over third-place Mount Olive, who would also lead North 2 Group 4 if they got a top seed. They have Bridgewater-Raritan home Cutoff Weekend, but Union this week – even with a win – could hurt them, as the Farmers have just one win. We’ll find out how much this week. But Mount Olive has 5-2 Wayne Valley this week, then is at 7-0 West Morris Cutoff Weekend, and that’s quite a more challenging schedule than the Stateliners. We think they drop at least one, so if P’burg can win both, they should lock up a spot. Stay tuned…
Woodbridge, Ridge and Montgomery: The Barrons are tied for fifth overall, but after Northing sorting, they’ll go in North 2 Group 4 with the Red Devils and Cougars right behind them. This is going to be a tight battle, and yes, even though it’s Week Seven, it might be too early to tell how this will all shake out, with all kinds of scenarios. Who do they all close with? Woodbridge has Summit home, then plays at St. Joseph-Metuchen. Ridge is home to North Brunswick, then closes at Westfield. Montgomery has road games at Sayreville and Rahway. Of the three, Ridge might have the most harmful schedule, and even if Montgomery finished directly above Woodbridge, the Barrons would jump them in the head-to-head in the field of 16. For now, our predicted finish is Woodbridge, Montgomery, Ridge, in a scenario where all three win out. If anyone loses, that’ll change the math, and we’ll regroup next week.

Colonia: The Patriots are directly atop Rahway in the field of 16, but there are three UPR points between them. We think Colonia controls its own future if they can win out over a couple of solid teams: Cranford at home this week, then next week at Old Bridge. If not, Rahway could make a push up. We think it’s highly unlikely, unless they get a lot of help – and we mean a lot – that Colonia jumps into a first-round home game position in the top four in North 2, Group 3. They’d have to jump from 11th to 8th overall to do that, as they’re 3,8 UPR points behind Montgomery.
Rahway: Last week’s win over Watchung Hills got the Indians squarely back in the race, where they’re 12th overall, sitting sixth in North 2 Group 4 behind Colonia, and 1.2 UPR points and two slots ahead of Westfield. They may not catch them even if they win out, however, with winless New Brunswick on the schedule this Friday, in the Hub City. They host Montgomery (5-2) on Cutoff Weekend, though, and that could give them a jump. But maybe not enough to flip with the Patriots.
Westfield: At 14th at 3-4, the Blue Devils, the good news is they have some good teams on the schedule where they can gain ground with wins. But they’re both challenging – this week at Bridgewater-Raritan, next week home against Ridge. They should stay in with a split, since those opponents are strong. Two losses and they might need help. Two wins and they are in. Pretty straightforward.
Watchung Hills: The Warriors might have a shot, with two big games coming up, Elizabeth followed by Somerville at home. But they most likely need to win both.
JFK: At 5-2, the Mustangs are in 20th. We don;t think they’re in it, at three UPR points out of 16th place, but we’ll get back to you after this weekend. Kennedy hosts Middlesex this weekend, then visits South Plainfield next Friday.