Group 3 Playoff Chase for Week 7: Summit, Somerville look up at top seeds; do they have a shot at getting one? Can South Plainfield and Carteret make it?

With the NJSIAA’s Cutoff Weekend for high school football next week in New Jersey, Central Jersey Sports Radio is taking a closer look at the race for the playoffs, including who’s in the running for top seeds, who’s in, who’s jockeying for position, and who has some work to do just to get in, or stay in the hunt.

We’ll break down each supersection, with individual team analysis for all Big Central Conference schools. Much will change this week, and we’ll have a clearer picture after Week 7 once Strength Index numbers lock in for next week.

We’ll have an unofficial update this weekend after Friday’s games, and another look after Saturday’s contests as we speed toward Cutoff Weekend. And don’t forget to tune in to Central Jersey Sports Radio’s “2025 Playoff Projection Show” at 6 pm on Saturday, October 25, with host Mike Pavlichko and analyst Marcus Borden.

Please note, we have not done any UPR tiebreakers – other than putting higher OSI teams first – and no top-down head-to-head changes either. Section standings are based on the Top 16 as shown here.

NORTH GROUP 3

Note that in this section, Weequahic and West Side-Newark (in red, above) are disqualified from the playoffs due to numerous disqualifications in a game earlier this season. While West Side isn’t in contention, if Weequahic finishes in the top 16, they would be out, and the 17th place team would get in.

• Summit: The Hilltoppers are just 0.8 UPR points from one of the top two spots, and the North 2, Group 4 top seed, but it’s not a matter of distance at this point, but who they play. Summit is at 7-0 Woodbridge Friday, then at 2-4 Scotch Plains-Fanwood. If they can beat the Barrons, they might have a shot, but they might need one of the teams ahead of them to slip up. West Morris is the closest, and in this case Summit just needs to top one of them. (Kind of like the two guys being chased by a bear in the woods. One says “I don’t think we can outrun him!” The other says “I only have to outrun you.”) West Morris is at 5-2 Roxbury this week, then hosts 6-0 Mount Olive next Friday. We think they have a better chance of dropping one of those, while Summit is more likely to lose to the Barrons than the Raiders. Then again, the Wolfpack could drop both; they’ve only played one other five-win team this year. We think if Summit wins both they have a shot. Split with a loss to Woodbridge and they need some help. Split with a loss to Scotch Plains, or lose both, they’ll be a two-seed or lower.

• Cranford: At 4-3, we think the Cougars are solidly in as they sit in 12th, so long as they beat Hillside on the road next Saturday. They can withstand a loss at Colonia, we think, but a loss to the Comets might be another story. Why chance it? There also could be a scenario where if South Plainfield jumps in they would geographically bounce the Northernmost team (West Essex) in North 2 Group 3 into North 1, which could move Cranford up into the fourth spot, giving them at least a first round home game.
• South Plainfield and Carteret: Weequahic being ineligible helps, as now all these teams need to do is get to 17 rather than 16. The Tigers are 2.8 UPR points behind Snyder, while the Ramblers are three full points back. Do they have the schedule to get them there if they win out? Also keep in mind, Paramus is 0-7 between these two and Snyder, so if they lose one of their last two, they’ll be out, unable to get to the minimum two wins needed to qualify for the postseason. South Plainfield has South River and JFK, both home, to close out, while Carteret has Linden and Bernards. Edge Ramblers on strength of schedule here, but this could be a fun race to watch.

SOUTH GROUP 3

• Somerville: The only Big Central team in this section, the Pioneers have a decent schedule down the stretch, but we’re not sure it’ll be enough to get them over the hump, 1.4 UPR points behind Cedar Creek, in second. They’ll end up in Central Group 3 regardless, as they are the Northernmost of all 28 teams in the supersection, so they can defend their 2024 sectional title whether they get a top seed or not. The ‘Ville’s final two games are against Plainfield at home Friday (6:30 pm on CJSR) and at Watchung Hills next week. Power points might be their hope, and some help from (the teams) above. A bigger question is: can they catch Holmdel? Due to the geographic breakdown this year rather than snaking, despite being in fourth overall, they’d be the third seed in CJ3. But you want that second seed for a potential home semifinal. Just 0.8 UPR points back, that might be a more realistic goal. But they’ll have to win out, and that won’t be a cakewalk.