Group 5 Playoff Chase for Week 7: Bridgewater hangs on to top-seed spot in North 5 despite loss, six teams have likely clinched berths

With the NJSIAA’s Cutoff Weekend for high school football next week in New Jersey, Central Jersey Sports Radio is taking a closer look at the race for the playoffs, including who’s in the running for top seeds, who’s in, who’s jockeying for position, and who has some work to do just to get in, or stay in the hunt.

We’ll break down each supersection, with individual team analysis for all Big Central Conference schools. Much will change this week, and we’ll have a clearer picture after Week 7 once Strength Index numbers lock in for next week.

We’ll have an unofficial update this weekend after Friday’s games, and another look after Saturday’s contests as we speed toward Cutoff Weekend. And don’t forget to tune in to Central Jersey Sports Radio’s “2025 Playoff Projection Show” at 6 pm on Saturday, October 25, with host Mike Pavlichko and analyst Marcus Borden.

Please note, we have not done any UPR tiebreakers – other than putting higher OSI teams first – and no top-down head-to-head changes either. Section standings are based on the Top 16 as shown here.

NORTH GROUP 5

• Bridgewater-Raritan: Despite taking its second loss of the season, the Panthers stay in the top spot overall with what we call a “true” 1 UPR. That means they’re first in both OSI and traditional power points. With Westfield this week, and a road game at highly-rated Phillipsburg next week, even a win over the Blue Devils and a loss to Phillipsburg might be enough for them to finish in one of the top two spots. But remember, the overall top seed gets home field for the group semifinals, should they get that far. And with Declan Kurdyla back at QB after an injury that kept him out for two weeks – even though he played against Hillsborough, he may not have been at 100 percent – we like their chances to remain a top seed.
• Piscataway: A victim of having to play winless East Brunswick last week, the Chiefs’ 35-0 victory didn’t keep them from falling to third place in the overall field. They close with road games at Hillsborough and Monroe. We think a sweep still would have them max out at three overall, so we believe the best they can do is a two-seed in North 2, Group 5.
• Elizabeth: There’s not much room to climb here for the Minutemen when it comes to their section. They’ll be in North 2, Group 5, most likely, but the teams above them in the top 16 – Passaic Tech and East Orange – will be in North 1, so to make a move from third to second in the section, they would have to jump three teams, including Piscataway. That’s unlikely, even if they sweep their last two, at Watchung Hills this week and home to Union next week. The Farmers’ 1-6 record will probably keep them, at best, a third seed in their section, unless Piscataway trips up in a big way.

• Linden: Classic bubble situation here, but they control their own future. The Tigers’ win over Perth Amboy last week – their second of the season – means they’re now playoff eligible. They have two good teams to close with, at Carteret this week, home to Plainfield next Friday. A split should get them in, a sweep should guarantee it. Two losses could still work, but they’d need some help. Most likely, they’ll be a 7-seed in North 2, Group 5.
• Union: The Farmers are in 16th place – the final playoff spot – but they need another win to become eligible. If not, and the playoffs were today, that spot would go to No. 17 Plainfield. What are their chances? Their last two games are on the road, at Phillipsburg, then Elizabeth. Sure, a loss to Phillipsburg could boost them up, but again, they need two wins and only have one. A split either way should get them in.
• Plainfield: They might be in the best position of any 17th-place team in the state. They close at Somerville and Linden. Union is ahead of them but not yet playoff eligible, and if they lose their remaining two games, the Cardinals should get in. The next team behind them is Montclair, but the Mounties are 0-7 and would have to win out to get in. It’s unlikely they will, so we’ll count them out for now. That leaves 19th place Columbia most likely their only real competition outside of Union for their last spot. We think Plainfield makes it, so long as they split their last two.

SOUTH GROUP 5

• Sayreville: The Bombers are undefeated at 7-0, and just 0/2 points behind Washington Twp. for one of the top two seeds, and a No. 1 seed in Central Jersey Group 5. As it is now, they’d be second there behind Washington Twp., while Atlantic City would get the South Jersey Group 5 top-seed. Sayreville may have the upper hand here, with a stronger schedule in Montgomery and St. Thomas Aquinas, the second of which is a multiplier if the Bombers lose that game next Friday night. With a split either way, we think the Bombers have a shot at the top seed. With a sweep, we think it’s as close to a lock as you could get. We’ll know more, for sure, next week.
• Old Bridge: The Knights sit in the fourth spot right now in the Central Group 5 section, and likely won’t jump Rancocas Valley at third. We think they’re pretty well locked in to a four-seed in that section, and are well-protected from Hillsborough, which would be fifth, but is five spots behind Old Bridge in the overall standings. Now, that’s assuming they continue to win, as they have been at 6-1. They have two tough tests: this week at Hunterdon Central, next week home against Colonia.
• Hillsborough: As mentioned above, they’re mainly out of reach of Old Bridge, so they likely will finish in the bottom four of the Central Jersey Group 5 section. They’ll have to watch the three teams behind them, however, as Toms River North, Freehold Twp., and Howell are all right behind them in the overall field of 16. The Raiders close with Piscataway at home Friday, and at Hunterdon Central next week, and their best to stay at five in CJ5 is to win out, but they could hold on with a split if they get some cooperation from the teams behind them.

• Hunterdon Central: This is a really solid section, with no team in the top 16 having fewer than three wins with two games to play. That’s one reason why the Red Devils (4-3) find themselves at No. 17 this week. Their schedule won’t hurt them, with two solid teams to close out, and both at home: Old Bridge, followed by Hillsborough. That last one could be a “win-and-they’re in” game for Central. They could have to win both to get in, but we’ll know a lot more after this week. If they had to split, Old Bridge is the bigger prize, with more wins (more residuals) and an SI value that’s about ten points higher.
• Franklin: The Warriors are just in 18th and only three UPR points back of the 16th position, but their last two opponents do them no favors, as Monroe (home this week) and North Brunswick (away next week) are a combined 1-13, worth only a total of 15 power points at the moment. And they won’t be able to jump much in OSI either. Barring something wacky happening, we don’t think Franklin has a shot here, even with a sweep of the Falcons and Raiders.