Week 7 Playoff Analysis: A look at scenarios for Big Central teams in Groups 1, 2 and 3

We’re just a week away from Cutoff Weekend in New Jersey high school football, when the NJSIAA will seed the public school playoffs for all 160 teams that will make the postseason. So we’re taking a look today at where the Big Central Conference schools stand heading into Week 7 of play.

The top 16 teams in each supersection make the playoffs, but there are several rules to follow when seeding teams. To begin with, there’s a top-down tiebreaker, where no team can be seeded directly behind a team it beat. If Team A is in second and Team B is in third, but Team B beat Team A in the regular season, Team B jumps Team A. They can keep moving up the list, as long as they beat a team directly ahead of them. Team B in third could not jump Team A in first because there’s another team in between.

Once that’s all sorted out, and any other tiebreakers settled, the brackets are snaked. The top overall team goes into their “natural” geographic section, then the teams are slotted. The team with the overall No. 1 seed also has the teams seeded 4, 5, 8, 9, 12, 13, and 16. The other bracket will have overall seeds 2, 3, 6, 7, 10, 11, 14 and 15. It’s similar to how the NCAA Tournament seeds, where the top four overall seeds in the bracket become the No. 1 seeds in each region.

That said, here’s a look at Big Central schools in Groups 1, 2 and 3, and where they stand. Click the header on each supersection to go to the Gridiron New Jersey UPR standings for more detail; Gridiron New Jersey performs official calculations of UPR for the NJSIAA.

NORTH GROUP 3

• Top Seeds: Old Tappan (6-0, 1 UPR) is the overall No. 1 team at the moment, with West Essex (5-1, 2.4 UPR) at No. 2, but West Morris (6-1, 2.6 UPR) is right on their tail.
• Summit (4-2, 8th): The Hilltoppers are in a tight bundle of teams separated by just 2 UPR points. They could easily make a move up, with sixth-place Sparta (5-1) having a 7.2 UPR, Passaic Valley (4-2) in seventh at 7.6, the Summit with a 7.8 UPR. They also have close teams behind them: Mendham (6-1, 8 UPR) in ninth, and Wayne Hills (4-3, 9.2) in 10th. Bottom line? It’s too difficult to say now with any degree of clarity where they could end up. And Summit has a tough matchup with the top team in the CJSR rankings, as 7-0 Woodbridge heads up to Tatlock Field Saturday afternoon. They close at Scotch Plains-Fanwood (2-5) on Cutoff Weekend. We think a sweep gives them a good chance to stay in the top eight and get at least a first round home game, but they might also be able to do it with a spit; they’ll just need some help.
• Cranford (4-2, 11th): The Cougars are only 2.4 UPR points behind the eighth spot, but it might be too much ground to make up. We’ll get a better idea when the host Colonia (4-3) Friday night. And resurgent Hillside is their Cutoff Weekend opponent, at 4-3 after a 1-2 start; they’ve now won three of their last four. We think they’re in, even if they drop both.
• Carteret (3-4, 18th): The good news is, the Ramblers shouldn’t have to worry about anyone behind them, as Roxbury and Paramus only have one win apiece, then Parsippany Hills at 0-7. So who are they looking up at? With a 19.2 UPR, Carteret is 2.8 points behind 16th place Warren Hills (3-4), and 2.6 behind 17th place Dwight Morrow (3-2-1, 17.6 UPR). The schedule is somewhat favorable. They’re at Linden (3-4) this Saturday, and the Tigers have a good 60+ Strength Index value. Bernards (7-0) will be a tall order at home at The Pit next week, but even a loss there wouldn’t ding them too much. A loss likely garners them enough SI points to raise their average ever so slightly. They may need some losses by the teams ahead of them, but the Ramblers are not quite out of it yet. A sweep – however unlikely – would do the trick, though.

SOUTH GROUP 3

• Top Seeds: The only Big Central team in this section – Somerville – is the No. 2 team right now with an unbeaten 7-0 record and a “pure” UPR of 2. That means they’re second in all three categories: UPR, power point average and OSI. The No. 1 spot belong to Hopewell Valley, which also has a pure UPR of 1. Whoever gets the top seed would get home field in the Group semifinals, if they get that far. But for the sectionals, being No. 1 or No. 2 overall really doesn’t matter. That said, the Pioneers trail Hopewell Valley in OSI 64.59 to 64.21, and in power point average 16.71 to 15.86. Somerville has Plainfield (4-2, 76.12 SI) and Watchung Hills (5-2, 72.67), while Hopewell Valley has Steinert (3-3, 53.12) and Hightstown (2-5, 46.24). Just looking at those numbers, should Somerville win out – and many have pegged them as the favorite in all of Group 3, that’s how impressive they’ve been – they should get the overall No. 1 seed. But honestly? They could be the 8 seed, they still might be playing at Rutgers this November.

NORTH GROUP 2

• Top Seeds: Glen Rock (6-0) and Hanover Park (6-0) are the top two seeds respectively.
• Bernards (7-0, 5th): What else can the Mountaineers do? They’re 7-0, and seemingly inexplicably the fifth-seed in North Group 2. But we think they may be at least among the cream of the crop here; they’re just going to have to go out and prove it, and maybe on the road. Last year, they got surprised when Lakeland upset top-seed Caldwell, and Bernards got a state sectional title game at home as a result. That could be the case here again. But Bernards still could earn a top-seed. They have a UPR of 4.4, and the teams above them are close. Westwood (5-1) – the team Bernards lost to in last year’s Group 2 semifinal – is tied for third with Pequannock (6-1), both with UPRs of 4.2, just two-tenths of a point ahead of Bernards. That means if they move up in any metric just one place, they’d be in third. And they’re not all that far from Hanover Park either, with a UPR of 3.4; just a single point separates them. And decent teams are on the schedule, too, for Bernards. They have Governor Livingston (3-4, 51.42 SI) this Friday night in Berkeley Heights, then a trip to Carteret (3-4, 58.38) Those games would both garner 15 power points, above their 14.14 average, and they could edge up in OSI as well, currently at 52.29. If Bernards wins both – and they may need a little help – a top seed doesn’t appear to be out of the question here.

SOUTH GROUP 2

• Top Seeds: Camden (5-2) is in first here, followed by Rumson-Fair Haven (6-0).
• Hillside (4-3, 11th): As we mentioned earlier, Hillside is coming on strong after a 1-2 start, having lost two straight after winning their opener. But they have won three of their last four, and could be in striking distance of the eighth spot, currently occupied by Willingboro (5-2), which has an 8.6 UPR, just 1.8 UPR points ahead of the Comets. And they have two good teams ahead: Voorhees (3-4) is Friday at home, and then they go to Cranford (4-2) on Friday night of Cutoff Weekend. Even with a sweep, they might need some help to get a first round home game, but it sure isn’t out of the question.
• Metuchen (5-2, 12th): The Bulldogs aren’t likely to start the playoffs at home, but making the playoffs for the first time since 2014 would be a huge step for alum Jordan Leitner’s program. With an 11 UPR, and the first team out of the playoffs 7.6 UPR points behind, we think they’re safely in at this point, it’s just a matter of where in the bottom eight they end up. Wins in their last two games may drop them a bit, as Brearley is 0-6 and North Plainfield is 1-5, but wins are likely, so we think they’re in, just maybe lower than where they are now.
• Spotswood (6-1, 15th): With a 16.8 UPR, they’re on the right side of the bubble by 1.8 UPR points. Their biggest game left is South Hunterdon, Friday night on Central Jersey Sports Radio, and that might be a must-win for the Chargers. (It might also be for the Eagles.) South Hunterdon has the higher OSI, but they’re also 3-3, so either would help, but they could need both. We’ll know a lot more after we see what the teams around them do this week. The jump from the wrong side of the bubble to 15th last week was more a result of other teams’ failings than their win over Dayton, but the Chargers are hot, having won six in a row after opening with a loss at Wood-Ridge.

NORTH GROUP 1

• Top Seeds: Cedar Grove (7-0) has the No. 1 spot at the moment, followed by Butler (6-0), both with “pure” 1 and 2 UPRs, respectively.
• New Providence (5-2, 4th): The Pioneers are in the top four, and at the moment, probably only New Milford has a legit shot at knocking them down, with a 4.8 UPR, not far behind New Providence at a 4.2 UPR. Even a win over Bound Brook (1-5) might not help them, but Del Val (5-1, 70.90 SI value) will, if they can beat the Terriers. They may control about 90% of their destiny here. Could they move up? Maybe, with third-place Verona (6-1) just 0.8 UPR points ahead. If New Prov wins out and the Hillbillies stumble, that scenario could play out, but we think that might be their ceiling.
• Belvidere (6-1, 12th): The only Big Central team in contention here, the County Seaters have an 11 UPR and are just 1.6 UPR points behind eighth-place Pompton Lakes. They probably can’t get any higher than that, but they may be able to reach the Cardinals. The issue is the schedule, with a non-conference tilt at North Warren (1-5) this weekend. Middlesex is a better opponent at 5-2, and they could get a boost there. Regardless, we think even at 2-0, while a top eight finish is possible, it’s unlikely. But we think barring a meltdown at North Warren, Belvidere is in.

SOUTH GROUP 1

• Top Seeds: Woodstown (6-0) is the overall No. 1 right now, while Shore (3-4) is in second.
• Middlesex (5-2, 8th): The Blue Jays have a slim 0.6 UPR lead over the ninth place team, Riverside (5-2), which has an 8.8 UPR, while Middlesex has an 8.2 rating. Middlesex likely won’t finish top four, but they could finish in the next four, giving them at least one more game at Mountainview Park. They host JFK (3-4) this weekend, then travel to Belvidere (6-1) next weekend. Our thinking is if they split – dropping the Belvidere game – they may be able to hang on, but a sweep might clinch it.
• Manville (5-2, 15th): We don’t think the Mustangs will move up much, but they might have to watch some teams behind them. Manville has a 16.4 UPR, with KIPP Cooper Norcross (5-2) behind them at 17, then Clayton two spots back at 17.4 UPR. (We skipped a team there, but we’ll get to that.) Those are the teams to worry about. Manville is lucky Highland Park is having a big turnaround; they get the Owls on the road this Friday, and they’re 4-2 with a 49.42 UPR. Not long ago, they had been below 20. A win there would be a big boost, then they should beat Bound Brook (1-5). Will that be enough to keep them in? We’ll find out.
• Highland Park (4-2, 17th): This is the team we skipped before, now here’s why: The Owls had several ejections in their opening game win at Dunellen. But a third ejection in a season makes you ineligible for the playoffs, by NJSIAA rule. So, Highland Park is not eligible for the playoffs, and therefore not a factor in catching Manville.