Week 7 Playoff Analysis: A look at Group 4 and 5 schools in the Big Central and where they stand

We’re just a week away from Cutoff Weekend in New Jersey high school football, when the NJSIAA will seed the public school playoffs for all 160 teams that will make the postseason. So we’re taking a look today at where the Big Central Conference schools stand heading into Week 7 of play.

The top 16 teams in each supersection make the playoffs, but there are several rules to follow when seeding teams. To begin with, there’s a top-down tiebreaker, where no team can be seeded directly behind a team it beat. If Team A is in second and Team B is in third, but Team B beat Team A in the regular season, Team B jumps Team A. They can keep moving up the list, as long as they beat a team directly ahead of them. Team B in third could not jump Team A in first because there’s another team in between.

Once that’s all sorted out, and any other tiebreakers settled, the brackets are snaked. The top overall team goes into their “natural” geographic section, then the teams are slotted. The team with the overall No. 1 seed also has the teams seeded 4, 5, 8, 9, 12, 13, and 16. The other bracket will have overall seeds 2, 3, 6, 7, 10, 11, 14 and 15. It’s similar to how the NCAA Tournament seeds, where the top four overall seeds in the bracket become the No. 1 seeds in each region.

That said, here’s a look at Big Central Group 4 and 5 schools, and where they stand. Click the header on each supersection to go to the Gridiron New Jersey UPR standings for more detail; Gridiron New Jersey performs official calculations of UPR for the NJSIAA.

NORTH GROUP 5

• Top Seed: Ridgewood (5-1) is the overall No. 1, followed by Union City (5-1).
• Bridgewater-Raritan (3-4, 4th): Despite a home loss to Hillsborough Friday, the Panthers play in the most highly-ranked division in the Big Central, so that defeat didn’t hurt them much. They moved up to 4th this week with a 4.8 UPR. With a game at Westfield Saturday, then home against Phillipsburg Friday night, a split might be enough to keep them in the top four, which means they’d earn home field for at least the opening two rounds of the sectional playoffs. Win both? The Panthers will be sitting pretty, and might even be able to make the top two.
• Piscataway (5-2, 5th): The Chiefs also won last week, blowing out East Brunswick, but the Bears are a low SI value team, so they are down to fifth this week. They’re just one UPR point (5.8) behind Bridgewater-Raritan (4.8), so there’s not a lot of ground to make up to get into the top four and jump the Panthers. They also have an easier schedule, with Hillsborough (4-3) and Monroe (3-4), that Westfield and P’burg (in our opinion), so while the Chiefs might be more likely to win both, they may not be able to gain as much. Bottom line? That 4-seed is very much in play for both.
• Elizabeth (3-4, 8th): There are some good teams breathing down the neck of the Minutemen, but can they hang on to a top eight spot to get at least a first-round home game? Elizabeth opened 2-0, then lost four straight after head coach Jon Fiore was fired. They got back on the winning track last week at Morristown, with a 26-24 victory, but Watchung Hills will be a challenge this week – coming off a loss to Rahway – and Union may not be a highly-ranked enough team for them to beat and maintain a top eight seed. There may be some scoreboard watching to do here of the teams behind them, specifically Bayonne and Irvington (tied for ninth at 9.4 UPR) and Montclair a sliver behind with a 9.6 UPR.
• Plainfield (4-2, 14th): The Cardinals are a bit of a victim of a weaker schedule, so we consider them a bubble team. The good news is that Livingston (3-3) and Clifton (2-4) are probably the only teams with a realistic shot; Union (1-6) isn’t likely to get in unless they come up big in their final two games. They have Somerville this week – a big ask – but even a loss could help them; a loss would mean about 45 OSI points, higher than their 38.86 average. But they next week they play Linden at home, with both teams needing wins.
• Linden (3-4): The Tigers are a bit closer to the edge of the bubble, but like Plainfield, at least they’re on the right side of it. The schedule doesn’t have any cupcakes, but a home game with Cartret next week before a visit to Hub Stine Field to take on Plainfield cutoff weekend are both winnable games. They may be battling the Cards for one – or two – of the last playoff spots next Friday night; keep an eye on that one.

SOUTH GROUP 5

• Top Seeds: Two-time defending Group 5 champion Toms River North is the overall No. 1, followed by Atlantic City (5-2). The Mariners have owned Group 5 the past two seasons, and anyone who knocks them off will be hometown heroes.
• Hillsborough (4-3, 7th): The Raiders are the highest-ranked Big Central team here, tied with Freehold Township with an 8.2 UPR, and are going to have to fend off same game teams behind them. After them, it’s Southern (5-2, 8.6 UPR) and Kingsway (6-1, 8.8). That’s not much separation. The Raiders have won two straight for the first time all year, and close with highly-competitive – but winnable – games at Piscataway this week and at home against Hunterdon Central next Friday night. Finishing 2-0 should lock up a top eight spot, and at least a first round home game for ‘Boro.
• Franklin (4-3, 11th): The Warriors helped themselves with a road win at Sayreville last week. They are on track to make the playoffs for the first time since 2012. We wouldn’t exactly say they’ve clinched; that’s too difficult to tell, even at this late date. We’ll have a better idea next week. The downside? After Monroe (3-4) on the road this week, they get a home game with North Brunswick (1-6), so they may not be able to gain much in a game where they only have the potential for three residual points and nine power points overall.
• Hunterdon Central (4-3, 13th): Thanks to their tough schedule, it’s also likely Hunterdon Central is in, or at least should be if they can split their last two games, both on the road, at Old Bridge this Friday night (also vying for one of the last few spots) and at Hillsborough next Friday evening. Both are solid opponents power points and OSI-wise, so we think a split keeps them in. Plus, the 17th place team, Williamstown, is just 1-6, but two wins is the minimum to make the playoffs. If the Braves can’t beat Delsea (1-5) on the road this Friday, they’re not going to beat Kingsway (6-1) at home in their finale. And the chances that the 18th place team (Egg Harbor, 4.8 UPR points behind) would catch them is slim.
• Old Bridge (4-3, 14th): The Knights are in a similar position to Hunterdon Central. They’re 0.2 UPR points behind them, with 13.8 compared to 13.6 for the Red Devils. And the Knights have a solid schedule, too: Hunterdon Central (4-3) this week and Colonia (4-3) on the road next Friday night. The Hunterdon Central game could be the big one to move either of these teams up or down, depending on the outcome. Put it this way: the winner is in good shape, while whoever drops that game could be facing a must-win on Cutoff Weekend.
• Edison (3-14, 16th): The Eagles are tied with Williamstown with a 16.2 UPR, but as described above, if the Braves don’t win this weekend, it won’t matter; they won’t get in. Edison needs to gain, and fend off the teams behind them. That includes 18th-ranked Egg Harbor (4-3, 18.4 UPR, 2.2 behind Edison) and No. 19 South Brunswick (3-4, 19.4 UPR, 3.2 behind). And guess what? The Eagles play the Vikings this weekend. This may not clinch a berth for the winner, but a loss could make things increasingly difficult for the team that ends up on the wrong side of this one. The Eagles host Paterson Eastside (1-6) next Thursday night, and that may do more harm than good, so Edison may be playing its play-in game this week.
• South Brunswick (3-4, 19th): With a 19.8 UPR and trailing the 16th spot by 3.2 points, we’re not sure if the Vikings have a chance. They will likely have to win out, over Edison this week and lowly East Brunswick (1-6, only 36.85 SI) next week. Even with that, they still may be doing some intense scoreboard watching.

NORTH GROUP 4

• Top Seeds: We’ve got two Big Central teams in the top spots: Phillipsburg (5-1, 1 UPR) at your “pure” No. 1 – i.e., No. 1 in power point average, OSI and UPR), with Ridge (5-1, 2.8 UPR) at No. 2. This is an interesting one, and a loss for either in their last two games certainly could drop them. But remember that Ridge beat the Stateliners 28-21 back on September 20th, so even if they finish in this order, Ridge gets the tiebreaker. Phillipsburg has two road games left, at Union (1-6) this week and Bridgewater-Raritan (3-4 so far) next week, and that game against the Farmers could hurt them. But Ridge also has a 1-6 team on the schedule, a road game at North Brunswick next week, followed by the regular season finale at home Friday against Westfield (3-3). This could be a toss-up and likely comes down to next weekend.
• Woodbridge (7-0, 4th): With a 2.6 point UPR lead over No. 5 Northern Highlands, as long as the Barrons keep doing what they’ve been doing, we think they will at least finish top four. Should anyone above them drop a game – including Morris Knolls at 6-0 in third place – they could move up. They would like to get to three, which means avoiding Phillipsburg until a potential Group 4 semifinal, but remember, Ridge beat the ‘Liners, so be careful what you wish for. But if we know Joe Goerge, he’s telling his team, “Just win. The rest will take care of itself.” The Barrons have the most challenging schedule of the three, with Summit (4-2) on the road this Saturday and St. Joseph-Metuchen (5-1) home next Friday night.
• Rahway (5-2, 9th): With a 10.2 UPR, they’re an even two UPR points out of the top eight. The only down side is their last two opponents – New Brunswick at home this Friday night at at Montgomery next Friday evening, they may not be able to make up the ground. Both would bring their power point average down, and New Brunswick will drop their OSI (not so much with Montgomery). Either way, we think they’re in, but a 9-seed at best.
• Watchung Hills (5-2, 14th): After a loss to Rahway Saturday night, the Warriors have a 12.8 UPR, part of a group of seven teams separated by a slim 2.8 UPR points, including Rahway, Wayne Valley, Randolph, Chatham and Nutley above them, with Westfield nipping at their heels. (More on them next.) They might need to beat Elizabeth (3-4) on the road this weekend, because so far Somerville (7-0) looks very unbeatable, and Watchung is going to have to play them next Friday night at Brooks Field. The only good thing is the 17th and 18th place teams are far back, and both sub-.500: North Hunterdon (2-5, 17th, 17.4 UPR, 1.8 out of the playoffs) and Teaneck (2-4, 18th, 17.6 UPR, 2.0 out of the playoffs). So even though they could drop, they might not be caught from behind.
• Westfield (3-3, 15th): The same applies for Westfield, which also has two games coming up against good teams: Bridgewater-Raritan (3-4) at home this weekend, and Ridge (5-1) away next Friday night. Both are winnable, but they could go the other way, too. We think with that strength of schedule, at least a split could get them in. We’ll know more next week.
• Colonia (4-3, 16th): Double ditto on the Patriots, who are squarely on the bubble again this year – they made it in last year with a Cutoff Weekend win over Rahway at home – and lead North Hunterdon (2-5, 17th) by 1.8 UPR points. That’s not a lot, but there’s a big difference between Colonia’s season at 4-3 and North Hunterdon at 2-5. The Pats visit Cranford (4-2) this weekend and host Old Bridge (4-3) next Friday night on the blue turf. Our thinking is if Colonia splits, and the teams below them split, they’re in.
• North Hunterdon (2-5, 17th): Despite the record, the Lions are a bubble team, and if they can win out and things above them shake out in their favor, they could get in. Bottom line? The playoffs start now for this squad. One more loss, they’re likely sunk.

SOUTH GROUP 4

There are no Big Central Conference teams in this section.