Montgomery has top-seed locked up in CJ4, South River and Highland Park on the bubble

Montgomery has the top-seed locked up in Central Jersey Group 4 heading into today’s NJSIAA cutoff date, with 34 teams projected to make the state playoffs from the Central Jersey Sports Radio coverage area.

And two teams from the Greater Middlesex Conference are likely involved in a play-in game today, as the winner of South River/Highland Park could make the playoffs as well, bringing the total to 35.

Here’s a look at the standings in all sections with CJSR-area teams, as of 11 pm Friday night, per NJ.com, which provides the official calculations for the NJSIAA. 

(Note: Many teams will schedule last-minute games on the cutoff date to improve their standing, and some games may not be posted on NJ.com or other schedule sites.)

Central Jersey Group 4: Montgomery (18-2, 581 power points) has a 100-point advantage over second-place Monroe (15-6, 481), an insurmountable lead with one game left. And with Old Bridge (13-9, 448) out of the GMC Tournament, the Knights have likely maxed out in third place, but fourth place Howell (15-7, 440) is just eight points behind. They play CBA in the Shore Conference Tournament quarterfinals, though, and lost by 23 to CBA earlier in the season, so Old Bridge might be able to hang on here. North Brunswick (14-10, 437) is in fifth, but could drop, as they are just three points ahead of Manalapan (14-7, 434) and seven ahead of Marlboro (12-8, 430). Marlboro plays at Ranney Saturday afternoon, while Manalapan is at Donovan Catholic. We think the Raiders, however, will at least hang on to a top eight seed, getting them at least a first round home game. East Brunswick (12-12, 405, 8th) has enough to worry about Saturday as the 12th-seeded Bears take on 4-seed St. Thomas Aquinas without a top eight finish being on the line, too, in that game. But that’s their scenario. They’re 10 points ahead of Hightstown (13-11, 395), but they don’t appear to have a game scheduled Saturday. Tenth-place Sayreville (15-9, 392) appears to be in range, but they also don’t seem to have a game scheduled.

Central Jersey Group 3: Looks like Red Bank Regional (17-4, 564) will be the top seed here, and the highest-standing local team is Somerville (10-13, 383). The Pioneers are in ninth place, 20 behind Robbinsville (10-13, 403) for the eighth spot. It may or may not be possible for the Pioneers to get that eight spot with a win at Ridge (13-8) in the second round of the Somerset County Tournament Saturday afternoon. That would be a sizeable upset. Carteret (14-10, 326) is in 12th place, and is too far back to have a crack at the top eight.

Central Jersey Group 2: The top-seed here is a tight race, with defending Group 2 state champion Manasquan (17-5, 565) holding a slim seven-point lead over Rumson-Fair Haven (17-5, 558). ’Squan has Toms River North (16-6) and Rumson has St. Rose (22-2, No. 1 in New Jersey) in the Shore Conference Tourney quarterfinals Saturday. Spotswood (16-6, 418) looks like it’s maxed out at No. 5, but Bound Brook (15-9, 401) might be able to catch them from behind with a win over Pingry (15-4) Saturday in the Somerset County Tournament second round. Further down the list, Middlesex (13-11, 333) could go up or down, four points behind Johnson (11-7, 337) and 12 ahead of Roselle Park (9-13, 321), but they won’t have a crack at the top eight and should start the playoffs on the road. Metuchen (12-12, 287) sits in 14th, and we believe is in, but Monmouth (11-9, 285) is right behind them. We think South River (11-12, 265) has a shot to get in if the Rams can beat Highland Park Saturday, a game that should be worth about 22 points, but don’t forget, the lowest scores drop, so the net gain would be less They would have to catch 16th-place Hillside (8-15, 277), which is 12 points ahead in 16th. The Comets are scheduled to play Pemberton (9-14) Saturday, a game worth 30 points, before dropping their lowest value.

Central Jersey Group 1: Henry Hudson (17-4, 403) is currently in first here, but just ten points ahead of Shore Regional (15-6, 393). The highest CJSR-area team is Manville (11-11, 340). The Mustangs are eleven points behind 4th-place Brearley (10-6), which visits Robbinsville (15-8) Saturday. Sixth-place South Amboy is ineligible, which would put Perth Amboy Magnet (11-8, 304) in that spot. They hold a slim lead over South Hunterdon (8-12, 302), but should be assured of a top eight seed and a first round home game. Dunellen (11-11, 292) is in tenth – make that ninth with Amboy being out – and would this be four points out of eighth behind defending sectional champion Eagle Academy (11-10, 296), which has a Saturday game with Marion P. Thomas Charter (7-13), while Dunellen appears to be idle. Somerset Tech (7-15, 243) is in 14th (but will be 13th) and isn’t expected to move up, maybe down one notch. The question is, can Highland Park (6-15, 181) get in? The Owls are in 18th, but really 17th, 11 points behind Academy Charter (10-7, 202). A win over South River Saturday would be worth about 32 points, though the net would be a bit smaller.

North Jersey, Section 2, Group 4: We think Phillipsburg – one of the top public schools in the state this year – will be the top seed, at 20-1 with 607 points, 24 ahead of second-place Watchung Hills (16-6, 583). The Warriors shouldn’t be caught be Elizabeth (16-4, 525) in third, but Ridge (13-8, 516) is just nine points behind and has Somerville (10-13) Saturday at home in the Somerset County Tournament second round. Elizabeth is in the quarterfinals of the Union County Tournament and has Union (7-14) at home Saturday. Advantage Ridge in terms of power points available, by a few. Plainfield (15-6, 506) is just tenb points behind Ridge, but we think a Red Devils’ win would hold the Cardinals at bay. But the next four spots are tightly packed, and a lot could happen here, so we won’t get into scenarios. Franklin (12-10, 545) is in sixth, followed by Hillsborough (13-7, 65), Hunterdon Central (14-7, 486) and Woodbridge (15-6, 483) in ninth. Anything can happen here, we think, with just eight points separating those four teams. None of those teams should fall lower than ninth, we think. Then, going to the bottom, Bridgewater-Raritan (10-13, 394) is in 16th place, and we think they’re in, with a decent 20-point lead over 17th-place Bayonne (12-11, 374).

North Jersey, Section 2 – Group 3: There’s a 19-point lead here for first-place Cranford (18-5, 573) over South Plainfield (17-6, 554), but with both having reached 16 wins, it’s unlikely South Plainfield can make a move here even with a win over Group 4 foe Monroe in the GMC Tournament quarterfinal round Saturday. Colonia (15-8, 529) is in third, and probably can go no higher, even with a win over Woodbridge Saturday in the nightcap of the GMCT quarters. But it would help them fend off Millburn (17-6, 520), which is just nine points behind but has already reached 17 wins, while Colonia has 15. That 16th win would net more points as it replaces a loss, while Millburn – which is at Fair Lawn Saturday – would likely be displacing a win.

North Jersey, Section 2 – Group 2: Arts (out of Newark) appears to have the top-seed locked up. Bernards is the only area team in this section, and checks in at No. 7 with a 14-8 record and 449 points. They’re just a point behind 6th place Rutherford, and could catch them on residuals, but also are just four points ahead of Lyndhurst (16-7, 445). But they’re 39 ahead of ninth-place Caldwell (11-10, 410), so we think the Mountaineers will finish in the top eight and get a first round home game.

Non-Public South A: There’s a lot that could happen with the top-two here, with Christian Brothers Academy (16-5, 580) ahead of Union Catholic (16-6, 573) by a mere seven points. We don’t think Rutgers Prep (15-6, 557) can catch them, nor can fourth-place St. Joseph-Metuchen (17-7, 546) catch the Argonauts, but three teams are behind the Falcons and no more than six points back: Red Bank Catholic (14-10, 543) in fifth, followed by Donovan Catholic (18-4, 541) and Paul VI (15-8, 540). Pingry (15-4, 509) looks solid at No. 8. And how good is this section? The “last place” (13 place) team is Immaculata, which is 10-11, with 364 points. In the non-publics, that’s a solid team.

Non-Public North B: Morris Catholic (20-2, 589) looks like it has locked up the top seed, 39 ahead of St. Mary Rutherford (18-6, 550) heading into Saturday’s cutoff. St. Thomas Aquinas (14-9, 473) has hit its ceiling in fourth, and is probably safe from getting caught from behind by Roselle Catholic (11-9, 446) in fifth. But the Trojans could surely lock that up with a win over East Brunswick Saturday in the GMC Tournament quarterfinal round. Timothy Christian (15-7, 430) likely finishes no lower than its current place in sixth, and Gill St. Bernard’s (9-13, 333) looks locked in at sixth place. Wardlaw-Hartridge (5-13, 136) sits tied in last place with Golda Och (5-13, 136).

Non-Public South B: St. Rose is locked in here at No. 1 at 22-2, with 671 power points. Calvary Christian sits in second at 425, with a 17-3 record, and appears locked in at the No. 2 seed.